Pressing On: Lineup Considerations For the Grizzlies

[jman3134]

Here's my article on lineup considerations. Any comments or thoughts? For those who aren't familiar with advanced stats, Offensive Rating in this article is synonymous with points per 100 possessions.

http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/22634 ... t-Rudy-Gay World

[darkangle901]

Good article.

Yeah so it seems Pondexter/Allen is a bit of an offense/defense tradeoff, which is not all that surprising. I always thought of Pondexter as a very good defender, but it's clear he can't generate turnovers or pressure ball-handlers the way Allen does.

If I were Lionel Hollins, I'd use them situationally. For instance, against a team like the Spurs, it might make more sense to start Pondexter. Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are good players, but they're not the kind of scorers you need to focus on. I would bring Allen off the bench to match minutes with Ginobili, who is the kind of guy you need to gameplan against. I'd let Pondexter and Prince space the floor for the bigs, who really need it against the Spurs solid interior defenders.

You could make a case for a similar strategy vs OKC, as they are very tough to defend if Kevin Martin is scoring well. It might seem counter-intuitive to use your best defender against the other team's third best scorer, but Prince matches up well with Durant, and Westbrook struggles to shoot against big guards like Q, and turns the ball over a lot when Conley is on him. Allen is also great against Westbrook, but Q doesn't have the gas to chase Martin around all night, and we don't want Conley doing that either, so Allen's relentless effort seems like the best option.

You could also make a case for doing the same against the Clips (Crawford off the bench) and the Nuggets (to check Andre Miller who really ignites their second unit attack). Basically, this strategy makes sense against the best in the West.

[SD2042]

Very interesting article j-man.

At this point, the strategy is needed as the West is as tough as it gets. Offense may get you points, but defense always wins games. Case in point when D-Will's pass was taken by Prince in the later moments of the game. It decrease the Nets chances of winning, whole putting the Grizz in the drivers seat.

The team will have a long month in March with most of the games being on the road(9) I think. It will be tough and tedious. As long as the Grit-N-Grind Express keeps rolling along, hopefully we'll rough through the storm.

[jman3134]

Good article.

Yeah so it seems Pondexter/Allen is a bit of an offense/defense tradeoff, which is not all that surprising. I always thought of Pondexter as a very good defender, but it's clear he can't generate turnovers or pressure ball-handlers the way Allen does.

While Turnover Rating was a consideration, if I recall correctly, the turnover % differential was not as huge as you might expect. I think that this likely had to do with there being more possessions with Allen on the floor though. It's safe to say that he forced a lot more tough shots as well and really helped Conley scoring in transition.

If I were Lionel Hollins, I'd use them situationally. For instance, against a team like the Spurs, it might make more sense to start Pondexter. Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are good players, but they're not the kind of scorers you need to focus on. I would bring Allen off the bench to match minutes with Ginobili, who is the kind of guy you need to gameplan against. I'd let Pondexter and Prince space the floor for the bigs, who really need it against the Spurs solid interior defenders.

There was something off in the Gay-Randolph-Gasol lineup, and I don't think it had to do with either Pondexter or Allen. While Allen contributed to a certain degree to the poor spacing, he also was aggressive attacking the basket, and the team tended to settle less for outside jumpers when he was in the game. I was most surprised with the fact that the starting lineup shot better from 3 with Allen on the floor! Pondexter's numbers this season have been best when he is used as a sparkplug from the data I looked at.

You see I do not like the Pondexter-Prince lineup. Both are players who rely on others to create for them. Pondexter hits corner threes and Prince is content from the midrange. I'm not sure that they would exactly complement each other.

You could make a case for a similar strategy vs OKC, as they are very tough to defend if Kevin Martin is scoring well. It might seem counter-intuitive to use your best defender against the other team's third best scorer, but Prince matches up well with Durant, and Westbrook struggles to shoot against big guards like Q, and turns the ball over a lot when Conley is on him. Allen is also great against Westbrook, but Q doesn't have the gas to chase Martin around all night, and we don't want Conley doing that either, so Allen's relentless effort seems like the best option.

You could also make a case for doing the same against the Clips (Crawford off the bench) and the Nuggets (to check Andre Miller who really ignites their second unit attack). Basically, this strategy makes sense against the best in the West.

The truth is that against the Clippers, we really needed some depth at the point guard slot. A major factor that few talked about was the fact that Bledsoe destroyed us when Paul was out of the game. This forced Conley to log more minutes and gave Paul fresh enough legs to force Conley to switch with Allen defensively in the late game situations. If our offense would not implode with the backup point guard on the floor, we would be able to mix and match Conley and Allen on Paul and Crawford.

Right now it is looking like we might match up with Denver in the playoffs. This is somewhat concerning due to their depth, but I think that we could exploit them in a 7 game series.

Very interesting article j-man.

At this point, the strategy is needed as the West is as tough as it gets. Offense may get you points, but defense always wins games. Case in point when D-Will's pass was taken by Prince in the later moments of the game. It decrease the Nets chances of winning, whole putting the Grizz in the drivers seat.

The team will have a long month in March with most of the games being on the road(9) I think. It will be tough and tedious. As long as the Grit-N-Grind Express keeps rolling along, hopefully we'll rough through the storm.

Yeah, I hope so too. We seem to be playing well so far. Prince has fit right in. But, I still wonder if our offense will stagnate worse without Gay come playoff time.

[darkangle901]

Yeah and I guess now is not the time to be making the kinds of changes I suggested anyway. And besides that, Allen has actually been playing pretty good offense since the trade.

I do however disagree that Pondexter is just a corner shooter. The kid can score in a number of ways. He showed his ability all the time in NO and flashes it every now and then. Hubie Brown was even praising his scoring ability on ESPN. I think he's a starter for us within 2 years.