If we had never traded for Randolph
Posted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:22 pm
I happen to think things would have happened a lot differently, and we'd arguably be in better shape now.
In the 09-10 season, we probably don't make the Ronnie Brewer trade. We probably would have been a little further back in the standings, making the trade pointless.
In 2010, we probably pick a big rather than Xavier at #11 or #12 (doubtful we would have finished elsewhere). The next three picks were Ed Davis, Patrick Patterson, and Larry Sanders. Tough to say who Wallace would have picked. The worst case scenario is probably patterson, so let's say we took him. Following the draft, we probably wouldn't have signed Tony Allen either (without Randolph, scoring and rebounding, not defense, may have been viewed as the priority).
In 2011, retaining the pick that was otherwise spent on Ronnie Brewer, and after finishing 9th in the West, we make a pick at #14. Marcus Morris was the pick here, but Wallace doesn't seem to have much of a history of drafting tweeners. The next three picks were Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Vucevic, and Iman Shumpert. Needing a backup C, let's just say they take Vucevic.
Arthur goes down, Cunningham signed. The Speights trade doesn't happen (we did that trade because both Randolph and Arthur went down, and we traded Xavier for him, who we don't have in this scenario). Vasquez-Pondexter trade does happen, and Sam Young gets dumped. Grizzlies would have done about as well in the 11-12 season in this scenario as they did in reality, considering the team was largely the same.
2012 draft, we still draft Wroten for PG depth. We make the Q-O to Mayo, and then rescind after agreeing to a 4 year, 20million dollar deal. We still trade Cunningham for Wayne Ellington, and we waive Sam Young. With Mayo still on the team, our free agency priority is a true backup PG. So we sign C.J. Watson rather than Bayless (just picked him cuz it seems semi-realistic to me).
So our 2012-2013 lineup is:
PG Conley / Watson
SG Mayo / Ellington
SF Gay / Pondexter
PF Arthur / Patterson
C Gasol / Vucevic
That lineup is very similar to the 41-25 team of 11-12. It features size in the middle, excellent ball-handling, plenty of outside shooting (including two stretch 4's), and a very good bail-out man and last second shot-taker in Rudy Gay. Everyone can play defense (Ellington and patterson are the worst but aren't terrible), and Gay makes up for lack of rebounding at the 4.
It's also a young roster: the "core 4" players are all 28 years or younger (as of today). And it's financially flexible: The total salaries of all players on the roster likely puts us about 10 million below the tax line. So trading Gay would still be a possibility if management so desired, but it wouldn't be a necessity.
It's all useless speculation, I know. But I've never been a fan of trading for veterans, and this is kind of the reason why.
In the 09-10 season, we probably don't make the Ronnie Brewer trade. We probably would have been a little further back in the standings, making the trade pointless.
In 2010, we probably pick a big rather than Xavier at #11 or #12 (doubtful we would have finished elsewhere). The next three picks were Ed Davis, Patrick Patterson, and Larry Sanders. Tough to say who Wallace would have picked. The worst case scenario is probably patterson, so let's say we took him. Following the draft, we probably wouldn't have signed Tony Allen either (without Randolph, scoring and rebounding, not defense, may have been viewed as the priority).
In 2011, retaining the pick that was otherwise spent on Ronnie Brewer, and after finishing 9th in the West, we make a pick at #14. Marcus Morris was the pick here, but Wallace doesn't seem to have much of a history of drafting tweeners. The next three picks were Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Vucevic, and Iman Shumpert. Needing a backup C, let's just say they take Vucevic.
Arthur goes down, Cunningham signed. The Speights trade doesn't happen (we did that trade because both Randolph and Arthur went down, and we traded Xavier for him, who we don't have in this scenario). Vasquez-Pondexter trade does happen, and Sam Young gets dumped. Grizzlies would have done about as well in the 11-12 season in this scenario as they did in reality, considering the team was largely the same.
2012 draft, we still draft Wroten for PG depth. We make the Q-O to Mayo, and then rescind after agreeing to a 4 year, 20million dollar deal. We still trade Cunningham for Wayne Ellington, and we waive Sam Young. With Mayo still on the team, our free agency priority is a true backup PG. So we sign C.J. Watson rather than Bayless (just picked him cuz it seems semi-realistic to me).
So our 2012-2013 lineup is:
PG Conley / Watson
SG Mayo / Ellington
SF Gay / Pondexter
PF Arthur / Patterson
C Gasol / Vucevic
That lineup is very similar to the 41-25 team of 11-12. It features size in the middle, excellent ball-handling, plenty of outside shooting (including two stretch 4's), and a very good bail-out man and last second shot-taker in Rudy Gay. Everyone can play defense (Ellington and patterson are the worst but aren't terrible), and Gay makes up for lack of rebounding at the 4.
It's also a young roster: the "core 4" players are all 28 years or younger (as of today). And it's financially flexible: The total salaries of all players on the roster likely puts us about 10 million below the tax line. So trading Gay would still be a possibility if management so desired, but it wouldn't be a necessity.
It's all useless speculation, I know. But I've never been a fan of trading for veterans, and this is kind of the reason why.