Post Draft outlook 2015-2016

[Zordor]

In this thread like to discuss your thoughts on the recent draft and potential moves via trades or via Free agency you could/would like to see.

June 25th, 2015

Started off with the trade for Forward Matt Barnes

Grade: A-

We got Barnes basically for the rights to Janis Timma who wasnt even going to be invited to our summer league this year because he was just THAT bad. Barnes is a gritty veteran who keeps with the GNG mentality and is very passionate, along with being best friends with Tony Allen (was in his wedding) with the ability to shoot the 3 ball, get to the rim, and is slightly better than average defender on the perimeter, and couple that with that he was usually defending the best or 2nd best option on the perimeter before due to Crawford, Reddick, Rivers, etc lack of defensive ability, you realize he should be an even better defender in Memphis where he should be defending closer to the 3rd best player on the perimeter, I would liken him to CLee on defense, underated but not undervalued.

No.25 Pick - Jarell Martin

Grade: B-

Memphis did not make a draft promise to him, but despite that they drafted him. It was hard to see so many good players coming off the board right before our pick, but Martin is a solid player, he is very raw, but he is willing to learn the game, he said in his pre draft interview he would rather be on a team of veterans that can contend in his first year and learn from them then to play himself if he isnt learning like he should. If you look at Martin he has made great strides, Junior year of Highschool never played basketball to going to LSU, to being a McDonalds All American to getting drafted in the first round, sure he may not make huge strides like that in the NBA, but he has a lot more potential than he gets credit for. The biggest problem that even GM Chris Wallace addressed was that he does not see Martin as a perimeter player, its not his game, sure he can play inside outside, but I would say he is more like a young Z-bo , Tobias Harris kind of guy, he can shoot the 3 ball if he is left open (left open he coverts about 35-40% versus 23% contested), but he is a guy who can use his strength and athleticism to his advantage to get into the post. Wallace noted that after Martin converted to a PF (where Wallace would play him), that Martin converted 70% of his shots within 6 feet of the basket. He has some drawbacks on defense and a lower BBIQ, but being with Memphis for a couple years you would have to think with his work ethic he will tighten up on defense and learn the sets. He does however have some intangibles, he is a good ball handler in the open court and a good passer out of the post (given again that he is smart about his passes, but otherwise its a fluid clean pass) , he plays a very physical brand of basketball not afraid to bully guys into getting into the paint for the dunk and he has a lot of different shot moves and circus finishes including being one of the better bigmen at shooting the floater. Overall solid pick, but dont expect much out of him the first year, but could easily be our new school replacement for Z-bo in 2-3 years.


TRADE!
Jon Leur to PHX for pick 44
Grade: B+

This is about the pick I expected Leur to be able to garner, but the ability to pull it off and get SOMETHING for Leur is good value.

Pick No. 44 - Andrew Harrison

Grade: B

Solid pickup by Memphis at No. 44, Harrison was one of the more undervalued pieces of the Kentucky teams the last 2 years. He has his drawbacks in shooting ability, and he does need to mature a bit, ie. stuff like this needs to be cut (note foul language) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtoKhCX3qpE . He has some attitude issues, but Memphis is good about ironing those out and with so many guys on the roster who have been where he has been, they will set him straight. He is mainly a passing point guard and a very good one, especially at feeding the low post on offense. He has length and versatility you dont usually see in a point guard with a wing span every bit as big as Jarell Martin's . He is a solid defender on the perimeter using his length and speed on closeouts, extremely good at getting to the rim, he will easily be able to take the place of Calathes, but I would expect to see him more in the D League this year. One of Wallace's comments about why he liked Harrison (and alluding to something he didnt like about Calathes) was you look at who Calipari leaned on in close game situations and crunch time and Harrison above any other player was their go to guy, if he was anything he was a solid floor general who induced a swagger to his team and who facilitated for others and was consistent. Decent pick for Memphis, I like him more than Calathes as a floor general.


So we presume Koufos leaves in FA and Calathes also is left without a qualifying offer.

Let's Look at the roster:

Conley/Udrih/Smith/Harrison
Lee/Adams/Carter
TA/Barnes
Z-bo/ Jeff Green/Jamychal Green / Martin
Gasol/ Stokes

15 players but Stokes and Jamychal Green are on unguarenteed contracts and can be cut, and if we dont find a trade we like, one will.

Trade rumors:
Memphis shopping Green
Memphis targeting Danillo Gallanari
New Orleans targeting Green for Gordon trade
Memphis shopping for versatile backup Bigman

Free agent targets:
Jameer Nelson (if we traded either Harrison/Udrih/Smith, Nelson could make for a good veteran option)
Jeff Withey or Kendrick Perkins (Arn Tellem, the agent for Gasol will probably sell high on this guys to us, he doesnt leave much money on the table, but he might be willing to cut a home town discount on Gasol if we sign one of his other big men to a nice contract)
Bellinelli (if we gut our wing position for a big man, this could be a legit option)
Marcus Thorton
Aaron Baynes (with Spurs looking for cap, make him a decent offer and this could be a steal)
Lavoy Allen
Ryan Hollins


Trade targets:
Gallo
Taj Gibson
Wilson Chandler
John Henson
Jared Dudley
Illaysova
Jared Sullinger
Kelly Olynyk
Ryan Anderson

On the trade block:
FA rights of Koufos
Jeff Green
Courtney Lee
FA rights to the QO of Nick Calathes

Expected outcome:
Attempts will be made to trade Green and perhaps Lee, but they will be futile.

Most Likely trade Scenarios:
Green + Carter for Eric Gordon
Green+2 second round picks for Gallo
Green + Russ Smith + Second round pick for Chandler + FA rights to Nelson
Green for Ryno
Green for Gibson + Hinrich

Special Scenario and one I find the actual most likely if we were to move Green.

If the Celtics dont get Monroe and they get a commitment out of Love/dont get Love, I think they try to move Olynyk

The pacers renounce their FA rights to West, Scola, and Copeland (or trade hibbert prior) to clear the necessary cap for this trade

Memphis gets:
Olynyk
Rudez (who we cut)

Boston gets:
FA rights to Koufos
CJ Miles
Pacers 2016 1rst round pick
TOR 2016 Second round pick via Memphis

Pacers gets:
Green
Jordan Mickey
Jarell Martin

Memphis brings in a floor spacing bigman and frees about 5.5M in cap so we can use the MLE without going into the Lux

Boston builds on their treasure of picks and they secure they can give the best offer to Koufos/ entice Love since Olynyk is not there

Pacers get Green to take the place of West in the starting lineup and to play some minutes at the 3 man, as well as slotting in younger forwards Mickey and Martin who played together at LSU last year.


What do you think of Memphis offseason so far?