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Potential Offseason Moves

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Whole Truth
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#481 » by Whole Truth » Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:22 pm

SD2042 wrote:I am with you on the rest except the Ben McLemore part. If Houston expects to replace Gordon's shooting prowess with BMac, then it's a terrible decision. BMac has issues of consistency. Plus he continues to go through the revolving door when it comes to coaches. I think 8 coaches in his six year career? That alone goes to instability towards his development and self-confidence. If a player goes through too many turnovers in coaches in their early years, you can imagine the instability that results from such cases like BMac. I can't call him an Eric Gordon replacement. If anything, I can't imagine the Rox needing to replace Gordon in the first place unless a better player than Gordon comes into the situation.


As for this Guduric kid they signed, he definitely slipped under the radar here. I guess with all the fury oof the NBA free agency and trades, the kid was missed on the news ticker. Never seem him play and outside of scouting reports, who to say what he really is capable of as he adjusts to the NBA style of play.

https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/nba/grizzlies/2019/07/01/nba-free-agency-marko-guduric-signs-memphis-grizzlies/1619053001/


That article is from July 1st. Several things have changed since the start of the month. Most notably, Guduric's signing makes it 18 not 17 active & Memphis have no intention of buying out Iggy.

Which means, If Iggy is swapped in a 1-1 deal, Memphis would have to buyout all of Hill, Howard & Plumlee to get to 15 but would be left with no depth behind Jonas in doing so.

I think Rabb might get thrown in a deal as a cheap filler to open his roster spot to resign Noah.

Guduric, shot near 50% on 3 APG, definitely worth a look. Valuing IQ & Spacing. Could be a very under-rated pickup, especially if he proves not to be a defensive liability.

Eric Gordon shot 40% from the field, 36% from 3 on 14 APG & 20% usage. He's a low efficiency, volume scorer. I think Houston will use Mclemore mainly as a spot shooter in that 6th man role. (He shot 41% from 3 last year for the Kings, when he played). I think Houston will be running with Harden or Westbrook at all times. So they reduce Gordons volume shooting into a spot shooter & trade him to net Iggy who also plays within what's available. Lower usage, higher efficiency ... this IMO to offset 2 ball dominant gaurds splitting units for a full 48. On top of him being a significantly cheaper option, which helps the financial aspect of possibly trading for Iggy, considering where they are with the luxury tax. Like several other Houston players, his contract is non guaranteed.

Houston have nearly 20m in non guaranteed contracts.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#482 » by Whole Truth » Thu Aug 1, 2019 7:00 pm

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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#483 » by Whole Truth » Tue Aug 6, 2019 1:28 am

“If Houston is willing to trade, it has to involve Iman Shumpert. But the asset Memphis is obviously looking for is a first-round pick. They haven’t been able to get a team to cough one up for a 35-year-old wing, which is why Iguodala remains on the roster. Houston already sent two firsts to move Chris Paul’s contract, would they be content sending another? They’ve been hesitant so far. Frankly, I don’t see why they should. I’d argue that Shumpert’s contract and two seconds should get it done if Memphis just wants something in return.”

https://clutchpoints.com/rockets-rumors-houston-unlikely-to-trade-for-andre-iguodala-but-could-make-deal-if-grizzlies-asking-price-comes-down/

There's the problem, Memphis don't just want something in return, they want a first. If Houston want Iggy, they need to satisfy the asking price. He's in demand & clearly the better player, which is why Houston is willing to S&T Shumpert. Memphis don't owe anyone in this situation any favors.

If Shumpert & a 2nd, is the best Houston can do, Memphis are better off holding onto the 3 time champion for his presence & influence. Which for me has more value than a couple 2nds that Memphis just threw away, not having an open roster spot to retain Holiday. So if an open roster spot was worth Memphis losing the 2 2nds they traded for Holiday, they're better off just buying out Iggy with an over crowded roster for an open roster spot.

If Houston is sticking on what is most likely a late 2020 pick, they deserve to fall short, again.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#484 » by First Take » Tue Aug 6, 2019 4:24 am

I wonder what Memphis plans on doing with the former 3x DPOY in Dwight Howard. Memphis fans, do you guys have any idea what is going on with him? I know they are looking to either trade or buy him out. I would like him to land in Miami, Lakers, Toronto or San San Antonio. I wouldn't mind him on the Clippers, I know they need a legit center.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#485 » by Whole Truth » Tue Aug 6, 2019 2:46 pm

First Take wrote:I wonder what Memphis plans on doing with the former 3x DPOY in Dwight Howard. Memphis fans, do you guys have any idea what is going on with him? I know they are looking to either trade or buy him out. I would like him to land in Miami, Lakers, Toronto or San San Antonio. I wouldn't mind him on the Clippers, I know they need a legit center.


Memphis have 18 active players & need to open 3 spots to meet regulation. They're not buying out Iggy's 17m. He's in demand, has value both in trade or to Memphis, if they decide to hold onto him.

There's 3 potential buyout options to cut the roster down to regulation - Plumlee, Howard, Hill.

In the decision to keep Iggy or trade him 1-1, means having to buy out both centre options to meet regulation, which would leave Memphis thin behind Jonas even with 3J playing some minutes at C. Maybe, Memphis intend on Clarke playing some mins at C as well...

The roster is overloaded at the forward position - 3J, Clarke, Bruno, Crowder, Iggy, Anderson, Hill, Josh Jackson. Even if they buyout Hill, there's still not enough available minutes. This is why I think there will be a consolidation trade at the forward position.

I have no links but I think with the roster imbalance & overload, the fact that none have been bought out, Memphis might be holding onto their buyout contracts (potential expiring fillers) for a consolidation trade, a big contract or some unwanted salary, that comes with pick compensation when the trade exception on these recently traded players are lifted Sept 4th.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#486 » by Whole Truth » Tue Aug 6, 2019 2:53 pm

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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#487 » by Whole Truth » Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:09 pm

A pitch to Grizz ownership & or management.

- How much were you willing to pay to buyout Parsons 25m contract?.

- It's rumored you wanted Iggy to eat at least 10m of his 17m contract, if not most likely traded to a contender for a late pick & bad salary in return, still needing to buyout 3 players to cut roster.

It's quite possible you were looking at a rough estimate of having to buyout around 30m to cut the roster to regulation.

- Next year quite a bit of money would be shed from roster with no need to sign anyone. Maybe there's consideration to repeat & take on salary to net additional picks, how much?. it took 17m to net GS's pick under ideal trade conditions.

- SAS recently argued that OKC should buyout Paul for a 120, maybe it can be negotiated to 100?.

Here's my proposal.

Memphis trade - (Iggy 17m, Hill 12m, K.Anderson 9m 3yrs) for (Paul 38m, 2-3 FRP's)

If Paul could be bought out for 100-120m as suggested by Smith. Memphis already needed roughly 30m to buyout current players to meet roster regulation. By sending out K.Anderson near 30m over 3yrs. At a 100m the difference in Paul's buyout would be roughly 40m. So if 2 quality FRP's are netted, roughly 20m per lotto pick.

The concept is equivalent to a declining contract. While looking like a steep price to pay up front, this would be the best way to bolster the future health of the team. Far better than throwing a 100m behind another Parsons in free agency because the team is not a FA draw that needs to overpay non stars. The money will be recouped by the 7-8 potential quality rookie scaled controlled talent making up the depth chart (3J, Ja, Clarke, Utah, GS, 2-3 picks out of OKC). A one time sunken cost that trims roster to regulation, adds pick collateral, balances the roster moving out 3 forwards & improves the chance of a brighter, cheaper future than looking at wasted money in overpaid role players in that duration.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#488 » by Whole Truth » Yesterday 5:29 pm

Memphis trade - (Iggy 17m, Hill 12m, Anderson 9m/3yrs/27m) = 56m total

OKC trade - (Paul 38m, 2 FRP's) = 100-120m buyout

At SAS's suggested buyout point the total financial difference from salary heading out & Pauls buyout = 64m

Memphis were already looking at between 30-40m in buyout options to meet roster regulation. Swapping Anderson for Plumlee's expiring helps dump an additional 15m from long term cost. So if they were willing to do a 120m buyout for pick collateral, the value is roughly 30m per pick. Maybe they can negotiate a 100m buyout...

Targeted picks.

2021 FRP, best of OKC/Miami/Houston. Likely scenario, Memphis land top 6 2020 & convey to Boston in 2021. This allows Memphis to build towards winning to reduce the value of the pick owed, while potentially netting a lotto pick.

Houston 2024 FRP 1-4 protected

When 3J & JA are up for their first extension, Memphis will have added 4 rookie scale lotto picks 2 as late as 2024 as depth options which offsets the extensions of the young core financially while also bolstering the teams player control, which more than offsets the upfront cost of buying out Paul. Most teams, when their team is ready to compete either don't have the pick/trade currency or cap space to bolster the team, they've thrown millions away filling the depth with overpaid role players.

Memphis will have all options available to build around the extended core because of the 1 time sunken cost of buying out Paul & due to the fact they already had to buyout players to cut roster, overall cost, reduced by this fact.

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