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Potential Offseason Moves

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tv24lakers
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#181 » by tv24lakers » Fri Jun 7, 2019 9:27 am

Whole Truth wrote:
You're offering good asset value, it's enticing but Memphis would be better off keeping Jaren all things considered.

- Jaren & Ja are on their rookie scales for the next 3-4 yrs. Ball, Ingram excel the cap & player control in a scenario where Memphis is giving up Conley.

- Risk of Ingram & Ball's health concerns.

- The draft value falls off after the 3rd pick.

On the face of your trade it looks balanced but in reality Memphis becomes unstable with it. From the uncertainty of health, to uncertainty of pick to lost control of cap & player in a market Ingram, Ball could walk from...


I appreciate the the thoughtful evaluation.

As a Lakers fan I would prefer not to trade either player, but the win now sentiment with Lebron on the team leaves us with little options. That is to say Ball and Ingram health concerns are not one I share. The Lakers recognizing the playoffs were out of the realm of possibility withheld Ball longer than necessary. Ingram given the room to breathe is an elite talent. While I admire and love Lebron his presence on the floor downgraded the young stars. Take a look at the following article on Ingram’s stats w/ and w/o Lebron
https://fadeawayworld.net/2018/11/30/numbers-reveal-that-brandon-ingram-might-not-fit-well-with-lebron-james/
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#182 » by Whole Truth » Fri Jun 7, 2019 2:10 pm

tv24lakers wrote:I appreciate the the thoughtful evaluation.

As a Lakers fan I would prefer not to trade either player, but the win now sentiment with Lebron on the team leaves us with little options. That is to say Ball and Ingram health concerns are not one I share. The Lakers recognizing the playoffs were out of the realm of possibility withheld Ball longer than necessary. Ingram given the room to breathe is an elite talent. While I admire and love Lebron his presence on the floor downgraded the young stars. Take a look at the following article on Ingram’s stats w/ and w/o Lebron
https://fadeawayworld.net/2018/11/30/numbers-reveal-that-brandon-ingram-might-not-fit-well-with-lebron-james/


At the beginning of the year, if I were NO's, I probably would have preferred Tatum to Ingram but after the Allstar break, Ingram was averaging 27pts & looking the far better player, asset, until injury. Value wise, I think your offer is good for Memphis.

Value wise, Memphis would have a young, proven, potential go to scorer in Ingram, they would be in position to draft their future PG Ja at #2, they could draft a complimentary 3&D wing prospect like Hunter or Culver with the 4th pick & then flip ball to one of several teams in need of a PG to draft one of Hayes, Bruno, Abengele to potentially replace the loss of Jaren.

What makes me pump the brakes & probably why NO's is rumored to prefer Tatum despite how Ingram played after the break.

Injury risk - "Brandon Ingram was diagnosed with Deep Venous Thrombosis".

"A scary condition eerily reminiscent of the blood-clot problems that ended Chris Bosh’s playing career",

While Ingram had successful surgery. Bosh did too..

"A stark reality known to many of those who have been treated for blood clots: a recurrence can be common".

Ingram may remain heathy for his career & despite what your trade could potentially accomplish. I think it's risky because Memphis have a solid stable foundation with Jaren & JA in place without the concerns. Both on the same rookie scale timeline for the next 3-4yrs. Memphis have a nice window of opportunity to field a team around them, where Ingram & ball aren't too far from FA where they could also potentially walk in a smaller window of opportunity.

Not going to lie, hard deal to turn down but If I were Memphis, I would side with caution. Think Ingram is better suited contending now with Lebron than with Memphis. I think a better trade for both teams is Ball for Conley flipped for a draft pick or the 4th straight up for Conley, Lakers sign Noah as a FA who looked like his old self, last half season. Conley with Ingram & Kuzma should provide your team with better spacing than what you had last year, which I think was your teams biggest issue. Conley averaged 42% from behind the arc where Rondo & Ball were 2 of the poorer shooting PG's. Spacing issues is why LA struggled last year & Conley who's still producing like an Allstar helps rectifies that issue. Sometimes subtle changes, can make big impacts.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#183 » by tv24lakers » Fri Jun 7, 2019 2:39 pm

Whole Truth wrote:
At the beginning of the year, if I were NO's, I probably would have preferred Tatum to Ingram but after the Allstar break, Ingram was averaging 27pts & looking the far better player, asset, until injury. Value wise, I think your offer is good for Memphis.

Value wise, Memphis would have a young, proven, potential go to scorer in Ingram, they would be in position to draft their future PG Ja at #2, they could draft a complimentary 3&D wing prospect like Hunter or Culver with the 4th pick & then flip ball to one of several teams in need of a PG to draft one of Hayes, Bruno, Abengele to potentially replace the loss of Jaren.

What makes me pump the brakes & probably why NO's is rumored to prefer Tatum despite how Ingram played after the break.

Injury risk - "Brandon Ingram was diagnosed with Deep Venous Thrombosis".

"A scary condition eerily reminiscent of the blood-clot problems that ended Chris Bosh’s playing career",

While Ingram had successful surgery. Bosh did too..

"A stark reality known to many of those who have been treated for blood clots: a recurrence can be common".

Ingram may remain heathy for his career & despite what your trade could potentially accomplish. I think it's risky because Memphis have a solid stable foundation with Jaren & JA in place without the concerns. Both on the same rookie scale timeline for the next 3-4yrs. Memphis have a nice window of opportunity to field a team around them, where Ingram & ball aren't too far from FA where they could also potentially walk in a smaller window of opportunity.

Not going to lie, hard deal to turn down but If I were Memphis, I would side with caution. Think Ingram is better suited contending now with Lebron than with Memphis. I think a better trade for both teams is Ball for Conley flipped for a draft pick or the 4th straight up for Conley, Lakers sign Noah as a FA who looked like his old self, last half season. Conley with Ingram & Kuzma should provide your team with better spacing than what you had last year, which I think was your teams biggest issue. Conley averaged 42% from behind the arc where Rondo & Ball were 2 of the poorer shooting PG's. Spacing issues is why LA struggled last year & Conley who's still producing like an Allstar helps rectifies that issue. Sometimes subtle changes, can make big impacts.


I understand the apprehension. The salary differential between Conley and Ball or Conley and #4 is simply too costly for the Lakers to bear. While the salary disparity in the Conley, Jaren, and Delon trade scenario is substantial, there is some relief in the sense that we would be holding Jaren and Delon at a bargain.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#184 » by VCfor3 » Fri Jun 7, 2019 2:51 pm

Whole Truth wrote:
tv24lakers wrote:I appreciate the the thoughtful evaluation.

As a Lakers fan I would prefer not to trade either player, but the win now sentiment with Lebron on the team leaves us with little options. That is to say Ball and Ingram health concerns are not one I share. The Lakers recognizing the playoffs were out of the realm of possibility withheld Ball longer than necessary. Ingram given the room to breathe is an elite talent. While I admire and love Lebron his presence on the floor downgraded the young stars. Take a look at the following article on Ingram’s stats w/ and w/o Lebron
https://fadeawayworld.net/2018/11/30/numbers-reveal-that-brandon-ingram-might-not-fit-well-with-lebron-james/


At the beginning of the year, if I were NO's, I probably would have preferred Tatum to Ingram but after the Allstar break, Ingram was averaging 27pts & looking the far better player, asset, until injury. Value wise, I think your offer is good for Memphis.

Value wise, Memphis would have a young, proven, potential go to scorer in Ingram, they would be in position to draft their future PG Ja at #2, they could draft a complimentary 3&D wing prospect like Hunter or Culver with the 4th pick & then flip ball to one of several teams in need of a PG to draft one of Hayes, Bruno, Abengele to potentially replace the loss of Jaren.

What makes me pump the brakes & probably why NO's is rumored to prefer Tatum despite how Ingram played after the break.

Injury risk - "Brandon Ingram was diagnosed with Deep Venous Thrombosis".

"A scary condition eerily reminiscent of the blood-clot problems that ended Chris Bosh’s playing career",

While Ingram had successful surgery. Bosh did too..

"A stark reality known to many of those who have been treated for blood clots: a recurrence can be common".

Ingram may remain heathy for his career & despite what your trade could potentially accomplish. I think it's risky because Memphis have a solid stable foundation with Jaren & JA in place without the concerns. Both on the same rookie scale timeline for the next 3-4yrs. Memphis have a nice window of opportunity to field a team around them, where Ingram & ball aren't too far from FA where they could also potentially walk in a smaller window of opportunity.

Not going to lie, hard deal to turn down but If I were Memphis, I would side with caution. Think Ingram is better suited contending now with Lebron than with Memphis. I think a better trade for both teams is Ball for Conley flipped for a draft pick or the 4th straight up for Conley, Lakers sign Noah as a FA who looked like his old self, last half season. Conley with Ingram & Kuzma should provide your team with better spacing than what you had last year, which I think was your teams biggest issue. Conley averaged 42% from behind the arc where Rondo & Ball were 2 of the poorer shooting PG's. Spacing issues is why LA struggled last year & Conley who's still producing like an Allstar helps rectifies that issue. Sometimes subtle changes, can make big impacts.


I actually think it isn't that hard of a deal for Memphis to turn down. It would take a massive overpay to get JJJ. He has a chance to be truly elite on both ends of the court. At this point you kinda know what Ingram and Ball are. Both are good, but likely nothing more than solid starters. Plus each has a health risk. Sure JJJ could easily fall into that solid starter category as well, but he has a chance to be so much more. Conley is positive value and Wright would be too so it makes it easy to say no though it isn't an offer where Memphis hangs up the phone and refuses to take Laker calls for a bit. More of a "Ha no, we have no interest in moving Jaren. So back to a potential Conley trade, what are you thinking if free agency falls through?" type conversation.

I like that it is a bit of a different idea TV even if Memphis does say no. I think a FO should explore every option on the table even if there is a 99% chance they don't do it. Appreciate you posting.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#185 » by BarbaGrizz » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:15 pm

Whole Truth wrote:
BarbaGrizz wrote:If the 2022 FRP is lightly protected this package can land Parsons, not Conley.


You think Parsons for Wiggins could net the 11th pick & a lightly protected 2022 pick for eating 3yrs of his contract?

If I were Minnesota I would sit on Wiggins contract in that case. They'd just be saving money where they're looking for a guard to contend now. I don't think Parsons expiring would peak their interest like Conley + 50m savings would. If Parsons expiring could net that package, Memphis should jump on that trade because the only reason to have cap when developing 3J & Ja is to help cultivate assets. The trade is landing the 11th pick & a lightly protected 2022 pick along with the potential to recover Wiggins value in a rebuild, where worse case it leads to another top 6 pick & a year, before he becomes a valuable expiring or trade filler.

Cap wise, it's also less of a cap hit for Memphis to trade Conley's salary for Wiggins.

- Parsons has 1 yr @ 24m = expiring
- Conley has 2 yrs @ 30m, 30m = 60m out
- Wiggins has 4 yrs @ 27m, 29m, 31m, 33m = 110m in

- Parsons contract for Wiggins = 86m in, over 4 yrs
- Conley's contract for Wiggins = 50m in, over 4 yrs

- Trading Conley for Wiggins = 3m TE for Memphis, for immediate savings.
- Trading Parsons for Wiggins = 3m TE for Minnesota

By keeping Parsons expiring. In Wiggins 2nd yr, the trade would be a 29m cap hit.
By keeping Conley. In Wiggins 2nd yr, the trade would be a 60m cap hit.

Behind the potential reclamation of Wiggins player value, 3J & Ja won't be competing for at least 2 of WIggins 4 yrs, maybe 3. Memphis would only have to eat one year difference at worse case before Wiggins contract at the very least can become a value expiring or large trade filler for a big money target. Memphis would then have the 2022 Minnesota pick asset at hand to put something around JA & 3J when they're ready to contend via trade. This not factoring that Wiggins could potentially turn his value around under a different style & pace of play or development coach. Olidipo was heading to his 3rd team before breaking out. In Indiana the way he attacks the basket, you can see Westbrooks influence on his leap in development which he doesn't experience, if he was still with Orlando.

Wiggins is the worst contract in the whole league. You would two to three FRPs just get out of his contract.There's not gonna be a deal centered around Conley where the return is Wiggins. I understand if MIN prefers to just hold Wiggins, but that's not our problem.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#186 » by Whole Truth » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:18 pm

VCfor3 wrote:
Whole Truth wrote:
tv24lakers wrote:I appreciate the the thoughtful evaluation.

As a Lakers fan I would prefer not to trade either player, but the win now sentiment with Lebron on the team leaves us with little options. That is to say Ball and Ingram health concerns are not one I share. The Lakers recognizing the playoffs were out of the realm of possibility withheld Ball longer than necessary. Ingram given the room to breathe is an elite talent. While I admire and love Lebron his presence on the floor downgraded the young stars. Take a look at the following article on Ingram’s stats w/ and w/o Lebron
https://fadeawayworld.net/2018/11/30/numbers-reveal-that-brandon-ingram-might-not-fit-well-with-lebron-james/


At the beginning of the year, if I were NO's, I probably would have preferred Tatum to Ingram but after the Allstar break, Ingram was averaging 27pts & looking the far better player, asset, until injury. Value wise, I think your offer is good for Memphis.

Value wise, Memphis would have a young, proven, potential go to scorer in Ingram, they would be in position to draft their future PG Ja at #2, they could draft a complimentary 3&D wing prospect like Hunter or Culver with the 4th pick & then flip ball to one of several teams in need of a PG to draft one of Hayes, Bruno, Abengele to potentially replace the loss of Jaren.

What makes me pump the brakes & probably why NO's is rumored to prefer Tatum despite how Ingram played after the break.

Injury risk - "Brandon Ingram was diagnosed with Deep Venous Thrombosis".

"A scary condition eerily reminiscent of the blood-clot problems that ended Chris Bosh’s playing career",

While Ingram had successful surgery. Bosh did too..

"A stark reality known to many of those who have been treated for blood clots: a recurrence can be common".

Ingram may remain heathy for his career & despite what your trade could potentially accomplish. I think it's risky because Memphis have a solid stable foundation with Jaren & JA in place without the concerns. Both on the same rookie scale timeline for the next 3-4yrs. Memphis have a nice window of opportunity to field a team around them, where Ingram & ball aren't too far from FA where they could also potentially walk in a smaller window of opportunity.

Not going to lie, hard deal to turn down but If I were Memphis, I would side with caution. Think Ingram is better suited contending now with Lebron than with Memphis. I think a better trade for both teams is Ball for Conley flipped for a draft pick or the 4th straight up for Conley, Lakers sign Noah as a FA who looked like his old self, last half season. Conley with Ingram & Kuzma should provide your team with better spacing than what you had last year, which I think was your teams biggest issue. Conley averaged 42% from behind the arc where Rondo & Ball were 2 of the poorer shooting PG's. Spacing issues is why LA struggled last year & Conley who's still producing like an Allstar helps rectifies that issue. Sometimes subtle changes, can make big impacts.


I actually think it isn't that hard of a deal for Memphis to turn down. It would take a massive overpay to get JJJ. He has a chance to be truly elite on both ends of the court. At this point you kinda know what Ingram and Ball are. Both are good, but likely nothing more than solid starters. Plus each has a health risk. Sure JJJ could easily fall into that solid starter category as well, but he has a chance to be so much more. Conley is positive value and Wright would be too so it makes it easy to say no though it isn't an offer where Memphis hangs up the phone and refuses to take Laker calls for a bit. More of a "Ha no, we have no interest in moving Jaren. So back to a potential Conley trade, what are you thinking if free agency falls through?" type conversation.

I like that it is a bit of a different idea TV even if Memphis does say no. I think a FO should explore every option on the table even if there is a 99% chance they don't do it. Appreciate you posting.


While I agree with your take on 3J & the health risk of it, IDK about it being easy to turn down.

Jonas
(Abengele/Bruno/Hayes/Clarke/Semanic) - from trading Ball to team looking for a PG.
Ingram - proven scorer that was averaging 27pt before injury
#4 Hunter/Culver
#2 Ja

vs

Jonas
Jaren
#4 Hunter/Culver Assuming LA would trade the 4th for Conley or maybe an alternative wing with a lesser pick from Conley trade.
Holiday
#JA

Team 1 has Ingrams proven scoring potential on the wing & 3 rookies
Team 2 has 3 rookies

Team 1 can flip Ball for one of Hayes, Bruno, Abengele, Clarke, Semanic to potentially replace Jaren as a big man prospect.
Team 2 in drafting Hunter or Culver at 4, 3&D prospects, don't have the offensive potential of Ingram

Risk of Ingram injury, is the deciding factor for me.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#187 » by Whole Truth » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:58 pm

BarbaGrizz wrote:Wiggins is the worst contract in the whole league. You would two to three FRPs just get out of his contract.There's not gonna be a deal centered around Conley where the return is Wiggins. I understand if MIN prefers to just hold Wiggins, but that's not our problem.


If Memphis were to trade Conley to the Heat for the 13th & took back say JJ for 15m for 3yrs. It's A difference between Conley for Wiggins of 45m for the 13 pick only. Without, the potential to recoup a former #1, who's still young in a rebuild where the worse case of his player value, is landing back top 5.

If Conley's 30m were off the books for those 2 seasons, would you not use it to land a 2022 pick?.

Assuming Wiggins never recovers his value as a player. In 3 yrs when 3J & Ja are ready to contend he will be a large expiring or trade filler. He won't handicap the team when they're looking to put FA's around the core group. In fact Wiggins would be a 30m trade filler with Memphis having the 2022 pick asset to potentially trade for a big money star from a team that may be looking to breakup their roster.

Sure the contract is bad but your looking past the concept of it.

- Former #1 potential reclamation value in a rebuild where Memphis have a 2-3 window before they look to contend.
- Wiggins being a quick athlete, is now playing with an up tempo passing guard where he'd be filling lanes.
- not just the 13th or 11th for Conley but the 2022 pick for the 45m difference not accounting that Wiggins might recoup value as a former #1. Realize, while Wiggins hasn't proven much so far, he's part of that "young potential" in the deal..

Let me see if I can restate the trade.

(Conley) for (former #1, #11, FRP 2022) vs Heat offer of (JJ, 13th, 45m saving difference).
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#188 » by Whole Truth » Fri Jun 7, 2019 4:18 pm

Boston linked to going after Davis with or without Irving, most likely without from recent rumors.

Boston would be selling their one shot at keeping Davis short, if they don't target Conley as Kyrie's plan B. This means good trade leverage for Memphis with LA now desperate to put help around Lebron having missed out on all of Davis, KD & Kyrie.

(Conley) for (#4, cap space)
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#189 » by Whole Truth » Fri Jun 7, 2019 4:46 pm

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic:
“If Garland was to fall to No. 6 — likely if the Lakers pass on him at No. 4 — he’d be the projected selection here. However, the feeling around the league is that the Suns would prefer a veteran guard, something that they’ll have ample opportunity to acquire via trade or free agency. There are also mixed reports both from public sources and sources who have spoken privately with The Athletic as to whether or not this pick could be moved. The Suns do want to see tangible growth in regard to record this season after four straight seasons of 24 wins or fewer.

https://clutchpoints.com/suns-rumors-phoenix-would-prefer-veteran-guard-than-drafting-at-no-6-want-to-see-tangible-growth/


Steve Kyler

@stevekylerNBA

Garland has a draft promise either at 4 to the Lakers or 6 to the Suns. Teams I talked to this week believe its 4 to the Lakers.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#190 » by VCfor3 » Fri Jun 7, 2019 6:07 pm

Whole Truth wrote:
VCfor3 wrote:
Whole Truth wrote:
At the beginning of the year, if I were NO's, I probably would have preferred Tatum to Ingram but after the Allstar break, Ingram was averaging 27pts & looking the far better player, asset, until injury. Value wise, I think your offer is good for Memphis.

Value wise, Memphis would have a young, proven, potential go to scorer in Ingram, they would be in position to draft their future PG Ja at #2, they could draft a complimentary 3&D wing prospect like Hunter or Culver with the 4th pick & then flip ball to one of several teams in need of a PG to draft one of Hayes, Bruno, Abengele to potentially replace the loss of Jaren.

What makes me pump the brakes & probably why NO's is rumored to prefer Tatum despite how Ingram played after the break.

Injury risk - "Brandon Ingram was diagnosed with Deep Venous Thrombosis".

"A scary condition eerily reminiscent of the blood-clot problems that ended Chris Bosh’s playing career",

While Ingram had successful surgery. Bosh did too..

"A stark reality known to many of those who have been treated for blood clots: a recurrence can be common".

Ingram may remain heathy for his career & despite what your trade could potentially accomplish. I think it's risky because Memphis have a solid stable foundation with Jaren & JA in place without the concerns. Both on the same rookie scale timeline for the next 3-4yrs. Memphis have a nice window of opportunity to field a team around them, where Ingram & ball aren't too far from FA where they could also potentially walk in a smaller window of opportunity.

Not going to lie, hard deal to turn down but If I were Memphis, I would side with caution. Think Ingram is better suited contending now with Lebron than with Memphis. I think a better trade for both teams is Ball for Conley flipped for a draft pick or the 4th straight up for Conley, Lakers sign Noah as a FA who looked like his old self, last half season. Conley with Ingram & Kuzma should provide your team with better spacing than what you had last year, which I think was your teams biggest issue. Conley averaged 42% from behind the arc where Rondo & Ball were 2 of the poorer shooting PG's. Spacing issues is why LA struggled last year & Conley who's still producing like an Allstar helps rectifies that issue. Sometimes subtle changes, can make big impacts.


I actually think it isn't that hard of a deal for Memphis to turn down. It would take a massive overpay to get JJJ. He has a chance to be truly elite on both ends of the court. At this point you kinda know what Ingram and Ball are. Both are good, but likely nothing more than solid starters. Plus each has a health risk. Sure JJJ could easily fall into that solid starter category as well, but he has a chance to be so much more. Conley is positive value and Wright would be too so it makes it easy to say no though it isn't an offer where Memphis hangs up the phone and refuses to take Laker calls for a bit. More of a "Ha no, we have no interest in moving Jaren. So back to a potential Conley trade, what are you thinking if free agency falls through?" type conversation.

I like that it is a bit of a different idea TV even if Memphis does say no. I think a FO should explore every option on the table even if there is a 99% chance they don't do it. Appreciate you posting.


While I agree with your take on 3J & the health risk of it, IDK about it being easy to turn down.

Jonas
(Abengele/Bruno/Hayes/Clarke/Semanic) - from trading Ball to team looking for a PG.
Ingram - proven scorer that was averaging 27pt before injury
#4 Hunter/Culver
#2 Ja

vs

Jonas
Jaren
#4 Hunter/Culver Assuming LA would trade the 4th for Conley or maybe an alternative wing with a lesser pick from Conley trade.
Holiday
#JA

Team 1 has Ingrams proven scoring potential on the wing & 3 rookies
Team 2 has 3 rookies

Team 1 can flip Ball for one of Hayes, Bruno, Abengele, Clarke, Semanic to potentially replace Jaren as a big man prospect.
Team 2 in drafting Hunter or Culver at 4, 3&D prospects, don't have the offensive potential of Ingram

Risk of Ingram injury, is the deciding factor for me.


Using Per 36 stats, this third season of Ingram he had 19.4 PPG on .518 eFG%. His previous two seasons had a lower eFG% and less than 18ppg. JJJ had 19 PPG on .549 eFG% this year. If you are only looking at the last half a dozen games of the season, that is a fairly small sample size that could be due to a hot streak/fluke/whatever with no guarantee that he is currently capable of consistently producing that instead of what he averaged for the season (he will continue to improve over the next few years just like JJJ).

Using advanced stats, JJJ had -1.4 OBPM, 1.4 DBPM, 0.1 BPM, and 0.8 VORP. Brandon Ingram was worse in all three categories in all three of his seasons.

Ingram also is in line for a new contract after this next season where as JJJ still has a few years on his rookie contract. JJJ is also 2 years younger.

I still think it would be pretty easy for Memphis to turn down. Conley+Wright for Bonga+4 is probably slightly more valuable than what we will actually get for Conley+keeping Wright, but it is close to a wash. So it kinda comes down to Ball(or #7/similar pick)+Ingram for JJJ. I much prefer JJJ to that package and I think the FO would too.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#191 » by SD2042 » Sun Jun 9, 2019 3:16 am

Whole Truth wrote:Boston linked to going after Davis with or without Irving, most likely without from recent rumors.

Boston would be selling their one shot at keeping Davis short, if they don't target Conley as Kyrie's plan B. This means good trade leverage for Memphis with LA now desperate to put help around Lebron having missed out on all of Davis, KD & Kyrie.

(Conley) for (#4, cap space)



Although Boston has the most assets to go after AD23 with, I'm still concern with Boston going after him due to the issues of them losing Irving(which should be a good thing) and the likely odds of needing to retool the roster. Is the idea of giving up multiple of assets worth a potential one season of AD23 given his talents and history of injuries.

Perhaps if I'm Boston, I would look to see if there's a different avenue to explore with the assets in tow if their intentions are to stay contenders to compete wit hthe likes of Toronto, Milwaukee, and the Sixers come next season and beyond.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#192 » by evilution » Sun Jun 9, 2019 12:16 pm

SD2042 wrote:
Whole Truth wrote:Boston linked to going after Davis with or without Irving, most likely without from recent rumors.

Boston would be selling their one shot at keeping Davis short, if they don't target Conley as Kyrie's plan B. This means good trade leverage for Memphis with LA now desperate to put help around Lebron having missed out on all of Davis, KD & Kyrie.

(Conley) for (#4, cap space)



Although Boston has the most assets to go after AD23 with, I'm still concern with Boston going after him due to the issues of them losing Irving(which should be a good thing) and the likely odds of needing to retool the roster. Is the idea of giving up multiple of assets worth a potential one season of AD23 given his talents and history of injuries.

Perhaps if I'm Boston, I would look to see if there's a different avenue to explore with the assets in tow if their intentions are to stay contenders to compete wit hthe likes of Toronto, Milwaukee, and the Sixers come next season and beyond.


If Boston gets AD and Kyrie walks, Conley for Hayward + a couple of firsts (maybe a first + our pick back) sounds likely IMO.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#193 » by Whole Truth » Sun Jun 9, 2019 1:30 pm

evilution wrote:If Boston gets AD and Kyrie walks, Conley for Hayward + a couple of firsts (maybe a first + our pick back) sounds likely IMO.


If Memphis are looking at this potential deal with Boston.

- Cavs have rumored interest in trading for Hayward. Were said to be offering Smith's non guaranteed contract in return.

- If Heat buyout R.Anderson as they are rumored to be doing, they will still be 5m over the tax threshold. Which is why they were also linked to potentially trading their pick to shed salary & Smith's non Guaranteed contract.

Memphis flip (Hayward) to Cavs for (Clarkson, Smith)

- Memphis could stop here & shed salary by buying out Smith or...

Heat trade (J.Johnson 14.7m 3y, #13) to Memphis for (Smith's 14.7m 4m guaranteed contract)

- Heat use the 13th pick to not only dump the 3yrs on Johnson contract but to get themselves under the tax threshold by buying Smith out. That's a lot of financial benefit, especially if they're not overly enamored with anyone at 13.

- By asking for Clarkson in trade from Cavs, I was thinking about targeting the 6th pick with the obtained assets. Where Suns could net a vet PG & draft someone like NAW with the 13 or 14th pick in an unpredictable draft where there's not much separation 5-20 other than available preference. If Garland is off the board & Suns see little difference between White & NAW....

Memphis flip (Clarkson, Bradley, #13 (NAW)) to Suns for (T.Johnson, #6)

- If Garland is off the board & or they have fairly equal interest in NAW, Suns use the 6th pick in an unpredictable draft to drop roughly 10m off TJ's contract if they buyout Bradley, net themselves a vet PG in Clarkson to help contend now & trade down to 13 or 14 to take (NAW) who could potentially be a better PG prospect than White who'd be ball dominant next to Booker, for the potential future or they could just draft another wing to add to their glut of wings looking for playing time.

Essentially

Memphis trade (Conley, Bradley) for (J.Johnson, T.Johnson, #6, #14, #20)

Cavs trade (Clarkson, Smith) for (Hayward)

Heat trade (J.Johnson, #13) for (JR. Smith)

Suns trade (T.Johnson, #6) for (Clarkson, #13 (NAW))
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#194 » by Whole Truth » Sun Jun 9, 2019 2:00 pm

SD2042 wrote: Although Boston has the most assets to go after AD23 with, I'm still concern with Boston going after him due to the issues of them losing Irving(which should be a good thing) and the likely odds of needing to retool the roster. Is the idea of giving up multiple of assets worth a potential one season of AD23 given his talents and history of injuries.

Perhaps if I'm Boston, I would look to see if there's a different avenue to explore with the assets in tow if their intentions are to stay contenders to compete wit hthe likes of Toronto, Milwaukee, and the Sixers come next season and beyond.


Recent articles out has Boston regretting not being more aggressive on Kawhi who was expected to walk to LA. I think they will apporach going after Davis differently than they did Kawhi watching the Raptors reap the benefit of their caution. They've been sitting on assets waiting on Dais' availability only for Kyrie to now walk & potentially destroy their plans. If Boston makes those draft selections, the unpredictable value of the picks will be gone for better or most likely worse.

They target Davis & hope that it maybe convinces Irving to stay.

Personally, I think Boston was better without both Hayward & Irving 2yrs ago anyway, reaching the ECF with a rookie Tatum leading the way. Irving doesn't play defense like Rozier either, where Boston hung their hat as a team 2yrs ago.

Getting a 2 way PG like Conley fits between Irving & Rozier. He'll be better than Irving defensively & better than Rozier offensively.

I also think Boston might be better off with Horford, Tatum, Brown & Conley than a Horford, Davis front court & no Tatum. Horford is a pretty good small ball big in his own right. He & Davis would make a great front court but who would take Tatum's place on the wing as a 2 way shot creator?.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#195 » by Whole Truth » Sun Jun 9, 2019 2:31 pm

VCfor3 wrote: Using advanced stats, JJJ had -1.4 OBPM, 1.4 DBPM, 0.1 BPM, and 0.8 VORP. Brandon Ingram was worse in all three categories in all three of his seasons.

Ingram also is in line for a new contract after this next season where as JJJ still has a few years on his rookie contract. JJJ is also 2 years younger.

I still think it would be pretty easy for Memphis to turn down. Conley+Wright for Bonga+4 is probably slightly more valuable than what we will actually get for Conley+keeping Wright, but it is close to a wash. So it kinda comes down to Ball(or #7/similar pick)+Ingram for JJJ. I much prefer JJJ to that package and I think the FO would too.


Why make the one to one comparison?.

I agree with you in thinking Jaren the better prospect between the 2 beyond the health factor. LA would also want him for his potential fit next to Lebron as a defensive stretch C. His inclusion however, is why Memphis net Ball & the 4th for RFA Wright, 32yo Conley & 20m saved in cap.

Then there's the intangibles of the trade to consider. The 4th pick is positioned perfectly for Memphis to net a promising 3&D wing like Hunter or Culver to compliment Ingram on the wing. If Memphis believe either target to be better than what's on roster.

Hunter or Culver > RFA prospect Wright in a rebuild

Ball could theoretically be flipped to a team in need of a PG for a potential big man prospect to somewhat replace Jaren's potential, which is still unknown.

Ball traded for one of several big man prospects < what Jaren is "projected" to be

If Memphis thought they could get a big prospect in this draft even 3/4 of what Jaren is "projected" to be, they would be netting Ingram & one of Hunter Culver in trade for a mid age prospect in Wright & a PG on the wrong side of his career. Where if Memphis were to flip Ball for a big man prospect, Ingram would be the oldest asset returning at 21.

proven Ingram 21 > Conley 32 = 11 yr difference resetting Conley's value.

20m save > taking on 20m

If Ingram were a healthy option, I don't think it would be so easy a deal to turn down as much as I like Jaren as a prospect. He's an ideal big man in todays NBA. Which is why when Massai was trading Derozan into the draft I was behind taking Parsons as a Raptor fan to land him next to Jonas & Lowry.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#196 » by VCfor3 » Sun Jun 9, 2019 3:00 pm

Whole Truth wrote:
VCfor3 wrote: Using advanced stats, JJJ had -1.4 OBPM, 1.4 DBPM, 0.1 BPM, and 0.8 VORP. Brandon Ingram was worse in all three categories in all three of his seasons.

Ingram also is in line for a new contract after this next season where as JJJ still has a few years on his rookie contract. JJJ is also 2 years younger.

I still think it would be pretty easy for Memphis to turn down. Conley+Wright for Bonga+4 is probably slightly more valuable than what we will actually get for Conley+keeping Wright, but it is close to a wash. So it kinda comes down to Ball(or #7/similar pick)+Ingram for JJJ. I much prefer JJJ to that package and I think the FO would too.


Why make the one to one comparison?.

I agree with you in thinking Jaren the better prospect between the 2 beyond the health factor. LA would also want him for his potential fit next to Lebron as a defensive stretch C. His inclusion however, is why Memphis net Ball & the 4th for RFA Wright, 32yo Conley & 20m saved in cap.

Then there's the intangibles of the trade to consider. The 4th pick is positioned perfectly for Memphis to net a promising 3&D wing like Hunter or Culver to compliment Ingram on the wing. If Memphis believe either target to be better than what's on roster.

Hunter or Culver > RFA prospect Wright in a rebuild

Ball could theoretically be flipped to a team in need of a PG for a potential big man prospect to somewhat replace Jaren's potential, which is still unknown.

Ball traded for one of several big man prospects < what Jaren is "projected" to be

If Memphis thought they could get a big prospect in this draft even 3/4 of what Jaren is "projected" to be, they would be netting Ingram & one of Hunter Culver in trade for a mid age prospect in Wright & a PG on the wrong side of his career. Where if Memphis were to flip Ball for a big man prospect, Ingram would be the oldest asset returning at 21.

proven Ingram 21 > Conley 32 = 11 yr difference resetting Conley's value.

20m save > taking on 20m

If Ingram were a healthy option, I don't think it would be so easy a deal to turn down as much as I like Jaren as a prospect. He's an ideal big man in todays NBA. Which is why when Massai was trading Derozan into the draft I was behind taking Parsons as a Raptor fan to land him next to Jonas & Lowry.


I said Conley+Wright is roughly worth the 4th pick. I think that you could potentially move Conley to PHX or CHI for pick 6/7 and still get Culver or Hunter. You also speculated that if LAL strikes out in FA they may move whoever they drafted at #4 for Conley which saves more than 20m. So there are potentially other ways of getting Culver/Hunter using Conley. So again, it comes down to Ball+Ingram for JJJ and though Ball could be flipped for a big man, none are close to JJJ IMO and it doesn't bridge the gap (which I tried demonstrating statistically) between Ingram and JJJ. This is a star-driven league. JJJ is your best shot at having a star. Ingram is good, but you know what he is and JJJ is already on his level or slightly better. Give him two years and his numbers likely will blow Ingram's from this past year out of the water. The big men in this draft don't have star potential IMO. They have good role player type talent. Memphis isn't close enough to competing for it to make sense to break down their stud asset/player in JJJ for two lesser pieces. If anything, they should be trying to combine any non Ja/JJJ assets to get a single better young player.

Getting a big man who is hopefully 3/4ths of JJJ plus Ingram isn't worth JJJ. There is no guarantee that the big you pick pans out since the draft is a crapshoot. Let's look at the potential PHX deal of Warren+Johnson+6. You are highly likely to get Culver or Hunter with the pick, plus Warren who, though a few years older, is 90-95% of what Ingram is. You still keep JJJ who is potentially a game-changing player, your 3&D wing, plus an efficient wing scorer who can put up points when needed.

Ultimately I think JJJ is far superior to Ingram for a variety of reasons (skill, age, contract, health) and Ball/big from this draft isn't close to enough for me to consider the downgrade. You think that it is close enough that the downgrade is worth it. I think this is ultimately just a difference of opinion on JJJ and Ingram.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#197 » by Whole Truth » Sun Jun 9, 2019 4:51 pm

VCfor3 wrote:I said Conley+Wright is roughly worth the 4th pick. I think that you could potentially move Conley to PHX or CHI for pick 6/7 and still get Culver or Hunter. You also speculated that if LAL strikes out in FA they may move whoever they drafted at #4 for Conley which saves more than 20m. So there are potentially other ways of getting Culver/Hunter using Conley. So again, it comes down to Ball+Ingram for JJJ and though Ball could be flipped for a big man, none are close to JJJ IMO and it doesn't bridge the gap (which I tried demonstrating statistically) between Ingram and JJJ. This is a star-driven league. JJJ is your best shot at having a star. Ingram is good, but you know what he is and JJJ is already on his level or slightly better. Give him two years and his numbers likely will blow Ingram's from this past year out of the water. The big men in this draft don't have star potential IMO. They have good role player type talent. Memphis isn't close enough to competing for it to make sense to break down their stud asset/player in JJJ for two lesser pieces. If anything, they should be trying to combine any non Ja/JJJ assets to get a single better young player.

Getting a big man who is hopefully 3/4ths of JJJ plus Ingram isn't worth JJJ. There is no guarantee that the big you pick pans out since the draft is a crapshoot. Let's look at the potential PHX deal of Warren+Johnson+6. You are highly likely to get Culver or Hunter with the pick, plus Warren who, though a few years older, is 90-95% of what Ingram is. You still keep JJJ who is potentially a game-changing player, your 3&D wing, plus an efficient wing scorer who can put up points when needed.

Ultimately I think JJJ is far superior to Ingram for a variety of reasons (skill, age, contract, health) and Ball/big from this draft isn't close to enough for me to consider the downgrade. You think that it is close enough that the downgrade is worth it. I think this is ultimately just a difference of opinion on JJJ and Ingram.


My speculation is not the same as a proposed offer. I have no connections, I'm using logic & guess work off of rumors. If Memphis could get the 4th or 6th for Conley then I'd agree it's a lot easier to want to keep Jaren in that scenario but hat's not how I estimated his deal. Give me real potential alternatives & yeah I'd try to keep Jaren.
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#198 » by Whole Truth » Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:46 pm

According to Wojnarowski, the Pelicans and Griffin are “pursuing a combination of assets that include an All-Star player, a young player with All-Star potential and two first-round picks.”

Rumored offer - Pelicans get: F Jayson Tatum, PG Marcus Smart, C Guerschon Yabusele, No. 14 pick, No. 20 pick.

- Tatum is not an allstar, he should fall under young player with All-Star potential.
- Marcus Smart is not a young player with All-Star potential.

NO's is rumored to be willing to deal with Multiple teams.

Boston, Cavs, NO's, Memphis multi team trade.

Boston trade - (Hayward 31.2m, Tatum 6.7m, Smart 11.7m, Yabusule 2.7m, #14, #20, Memphis pick) - 52.3m out
receive - (Davis 25.4m, Conley 30.5m) - 55.9m in

Cavs trade - (Thompson 17.5m, JR. Smith 14.7m) - 32.2m out
receive - (Hayward 31.2m) - 31.2m in

NO's trade - (Davis 25.4m) -25.4m out
receive - (Thompson 17.5m, Tatum 6.7m, #14, #20) - 24.2m in

Memphis trade - (Conley 30.5m) - 30.5 out
receive - (JR. Smith 14.7m, Smart 11.7m, Yabusule 2.7m, Memphis pick) - 29.1 in
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#199 » by Whole Truth » Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:01 pm

Memphis- Boston - Cavs - NO's. Memphis receive - (JR. Smith 14.7m, Smart 11.7m, Yabusule 2.7m, Memphis pick) - 29.1 in

Memphis flip - (JR. Smith 14.7m) to Heat for (J. Johnson 14.7m, #13)

Memphis flip - (Marcus Smart 11.7m, K. Anderson, #13) to Suns for (T.Johnson, #6)

Memphis trade - (Conley 30.5m, K. Anderson 8.4m) for (J. Johnson 14.7m 3yrs, T.Johnson 19.4m, #6, Memphis pick)
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Re: Potential Offseason Moves 

Post#200 » by VCfor3 » Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:24 pm

Why would the Cavs trade Thompson and JR for Hayward? I've seen you suggest that before, but Hayward is a negative contract. JR is a positive (Cavs could just do that Miami deal themselves for #13). Thompson is an expiring contract so not negative value. They take on more money, pay the luxury tax, and pass up potentially the 13th pick in hopes of Hayward rounding back to form? Just wanted to see why you thought they'd be willing to go that route.

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