2022 is the exception to this rule. It is widely projected to be the "double draft" when the age gets lowered.
Ok - maybe it is a great pick, but it is still 3+ years out for an allstar level player now. I don't think that is commensurate value.
I actually think there is a drop-off after about 25 plus there is a decent chance someone falls due to how all over the place teams see the prospects in the 9-25 range.
Totally depends on who we select in this range, I agree. (from a pragmatic standpoint) We can't know that now, at the time of this trade. Our talent evaluation has not been great over the years (we have been one of the worst drafting teams), so I am a bit skeptical. This could change, obviously, and we could grab a steal. But, I personally see this positioning at #23 as worse than 2nd round value because we will be paying a higher salary rate and it is guaranteed.
The problem is that I don't think we had any better options. It sounds like Indy wasn't looking to part with Turner or Sabonis for Conley and that was our best hope at getting big time young talent.
This is why I am so upset! I think we didn't wait for the market to dictate Mike Conley's true value. We panicked early in free agency that we would be stuck with his high salary and took the best offer currently available. If we waited, I am pretty sure there would be a win now team looking for a point guard that we could have negotiated a better trade with. Now our asset is gone and we are looking to use our trade exception to help someone else get under the cap when they sign a big name free agent. But, we don't have any other worthwhile tradeable assets (we are willing to deal), which would generate any other value. And, I don't think it is likely that the teams signing max free agents absolutely need our trade exception to get deals done. So unless there is a specific positive deal in mind where we have leverage to ask for a Kuzma etc, I think we lost out on the trade big time.
You aren't getting a big time young guy or high draft pick unless you take on some really bad money. The only shot we have at that would be Miles Bridges+Batum and that is unlikely to happen. I know it isn't sexy, but the point of salary dumps is usually to give yourself additional swings at finding a decent young player in the back half of the first round. Look at past drafts. There are studs that go latter. The problem is identifying those studs is extremely difficult. Taking on salary for picks is you giving yourself an extra shot at finding the draft steal. Getting a Heurter, Shamet, Kuzma, Hart, White, OG, etc. would be great as potential role players to put around Ja/JJJ and then you hope you are able to either sign a player (we now have cap space and can go after RFAs next offseason like Beasley, Brown, Sabonis, etc) or hit on one of our own picks in the next couple years since they should be pretty high. Or if we get super lucky we find the next Jokic or John Collins.
Another option for us is to use 23 and the TPE to move up in the draft. 12+MKG for 23 saves CHA salary if they are looking at resigning Kemba to a max deal. Miami is in a similar boat of wanting to shed salary.
I understand that we will not get a big time young guy or high draft pick now (with only the trade exception) unless we take on bad money. With Conley, I think we had better leverage for a win now team. We are salary dumping, but do not have realistic, young free agency targets in mind that we wouldn't be paying the house to acquire. That is why we win by getting high draft picks and making trades. I don't think the trade exception in the current market is as marketable as Conley will be once Kemba/Kyrie sign. The point is we are not getting commensurate value for Conley. The number 23 pick in this draft isn't worth Conley, nor is the 23 plus a pick 3 years from now imho. My understanding of what Conley's market value should be is much higher.
I want the picks, but I believe they should be higher than 23.
I don't mind the MKG trade, if we could get that done. Again, I just think Charlotte doesn't need us and that lowers the trade exception's value in negotiations.