Whole Truth wrote:
VCfor3 wrote: Depends on the protections on the HOU pick, but there is a real chance Winslow is better than anyone we'd get with either of those picks plus Horford eats a lot of cap. We could take salary dumps next offseason and maybe get better assets at that time while keeping Winslow.
Houston pick conveys in 2024 unless they land top 4, then it becomes 2, 2nds. 2023 Harden would be 33 & an unrestricted FA if he's not already traded for assets. 2024 could be the 2nd year of a Houston rebuild ..
There's also a real chance Winslow might not stay healthy but only the organization knows his health status. If it's a preference to keep Winslow, what about offering up Anderson in his place?.
Horford had a down season but he's still an upgrade for the front court. His defense & 3pt shooting paired with 3J pushing Jonas to the bench helps opens the paint for Ja. He'll be expiring when 3J & Ja would be looking for their first extensions. At that point with this deal, Memphis could potentially have 3 picks in the 2024 draft, 2 in the 5-10 range not their own. to boost the roster depth & help offset the contracts handed out to 3J & JA with cheap talent.
I targeted the 2020 #21 pick, with the thought of potentially using it to trade up. Didn't have to be top 10, thinking a player could drop far enough to not hold a high asking price. Offer up a team like Suns (Allen, +21) for (#10) then draft Patrick Williams before the Spurs get their hands on him & he would be the Winslow or Anderson depth replacement as a 6'8" 18yo forward.
Moving Jonas to the bench & giving the young wing some burn could help angle Memphis for a set back & high 2021 pick.
I think 21+Allen at best gets you 16 from Portland which probably isn't enough to get Patrick Williams which I'm liking for us after looking into him. I wonder if the trade could be tweaked a bit. I think OKC is making out well so maybe we can tweak their value. I'd love to get a second 1st from them but can't see a great way to make that happen unless they are incredibly in love with Winslow and/or think they can flip Richardson for a 1st. So option 1 would be that they just toss in the lower of their two 2021 or 2022 1sts (their choice). It should be a late pick and we could either use that extra 1st to move up in the draft to go after Williams/Vassell/Onyeka or we keep it and use it to move up next year in a supposedly strong wing draft.
Option 2 would be to maybe find a 4th team even though big trades are hard to make happen.OKC trade
- (CP3, Houston 2024) for (Dieng, Winslow, Joseph). (30m savings + a young SG/SF and vet PG)Philly trade
- (Horford, Richardson, 2020 1st) for (CP3)Memphis trade
- (Dieng, Winslow) 29m expiring value for (Horford, Sacramento 2020, Houston 2024 1st)Sacramento trade
- (Joseph, Sacramento 2020 1st) for (Richardson, Philly 2020 1st)
Sacramento moves down from 12 to 21 for Richardson whose defense may help compliment the offense of Buddy and Bogdan (who can help cover some of the backup PG minutes). At 12 we have a good shot at Williams.
Another option is maybe Portland trades Hood+Ariza+16 or 2021 1st for Richardson and those expirings are sent to OKC instead. Memphis would then get the pick. The GSW may also take Richardson into their TPE and send us a future 1st.
And then you got the big mamba trade:OKC trade
- (CP3, #25, 2022 LAC 1st, Houston 2024) for (Dieng, Winslow, Porter, #21). (Hella savings + 11m TPE + a young versatile SF + flyer on a PF/C + move up a few spots this draft)Philly trade
- (Horford, Richardson, #21) for (CP3, #40)Memphis trade
- (Dieng, Winslow, JV, Brooks, Porter, #40) for (Horford, Wiggins, #2, #25, 2022 GSW 1st, 2022 LAC 1st, Houston 2024 1st) (#25+GSW or LAC pick probably gets you Williams, maybe you get Edwards at 2, and then you still have two extra future 1sts)Golden State trade
- (Wiggins, TPE, #2, 2022 GSW 1st Top 20 protected) for (JV, Richardson, Brooks). (Add depth, round out their roster, and keep the MIN pick even though I really wanted it ha)
I'm actually starting to like a deal like you suggested more than before, but I think the main question is what potential opportunities are we giving up? Cap space in 2021 may be very valuable especially with a COVID-induced lower cap than teams originally expected. I wonder what the chances are that we net similar or better assets if we wait and take on salary at that time. Or is there a chance we can attract a big FA in 2021 or 2022? In 2022 Zach Lavine is a FA, Bradley Beal could opt out and become a FA, Michael Porter Jr will be a RFA so an overpay may scare Denver off from matching, Aaron Gordon is kinda interesting for the right price, Robert Covington could be a solid SF roleplayer, Bagley/Bamba/WCJ/Miles Bridges may be RFAs worth a look for the right price, Mikal Bridges has played well and is a RFA that we can maybe overpay, Shai is my dream but I can't see OKC not matching even a max offer. I feel like Ja is one hell of a recruiter, but we've never been a player in FA before so I don't know if hoping that changes is a smart outlook. So I don't know what the smartest path forward is.