Grade the Deadline

[VCfor3]

What grade would you give the team this deadline and why?

(I'll post mine shortly)

[VCfor3]

B-

I think that the Winslow move was a gamble worth taking. It would have been nice to have had a 2nd or something tossed in or for the Hill/Waiters swap to have not happened, but Miami may have forced our hand so we did what we had to. I see it as us losing the battle to try and win the war. Miami won that trade but if we get our long term starter that pushes us over the top into contention later then it was worth it. I really like the Dieng swap since Dieng is supposed to be a great guy who can help fill the vet mentor hole left by Hill and Crowder (the other vets are still around and can help fill in too) plus he is a good big-bodied center. The Bell deal is nice since we got the pick swap on the 2nd rounder plus got a center that is very different from JV and Dieng. That should give Jenkins more versatility when creating lineups.


My attempt to compare the path we took vs the road not taken with the Winslow deal:

Spoiler:

I think Dieng will end up our 2nd string center (which we really needed until 5min before that trade when we got Bell). I also am not as worried about any salary difference for this year since we would have had other expiring guys eating that salary anyway. I also think that Iggy tanked his market by threatening to not play for non-LA teams which he also used as leverage to get that extension. Crowder with his down year would have gotten probably one decent 2nd (40ish) or two kinda meh 2nds. So I'd have it as:

Winslow for $25m/$13m(TO) (adding in Waiters' dead money
Dieng for $17m
vs
3-4 meh 2nds (I think the best would have been a mid 2nd)
$30-45m in cap this summer depending on holds and math I don't care to do

I think you could make a solid argument for either. Maybe you use those seconds to trade into the end of the 1st round this year. Maybe you set up a three team trade where you eat Hood and a guaranteed Ariza for a protected Portland 1st so that the 3rd team Portland is doing a sign-and-trade with doesn't have to eat that money. Maybe you get to sign a player or two that are on good deals and can be flipped at the deadline for assets. The downside would be that there is a real chance this year that there are ultimately no real salary dumps out on the market. So you may strike out there. Even with the promise of our young team, you may have free agents not wanting to take a discount/short deal to sign with us (we aren't a free agent destination) so you end up giving a big one year deal to a relatively mediocre player to conserve cap space for 2021. The main long term FA target I'd see us get involved with is Bogdan since Ingram seems out of reach. It would take an overpay to not have SAC match. He doesn't quite fill the hole we have when it comes to defending larger wings but he'd be good. The downside though is that that may take us out of chasing a max player/better fit in 2021. Would that be worth it?

Memphis is gambling on Winslow being both healthy and their potential longterm option at SF instead of acquiring assets to try and draft or trade for that guy. I think we will ultimately lose out on enough 2nds to trade into the end of the 1st round this draft and either a late 1st or another batch of 2nds that could be used to trade for a late 1st in a different draft. Is Winslow really worth two 1sts even if they are late ones? Probably not, but I hope so and don't mind the gamble too much due to fit. Given his track record it is hard to argue that him equating to that value is the likely outcome though so Memphis likely nets a loss on the total transaction. But if Winslow fits the starting lineup and is the wing defender/glue guy we need then losing value in a vacuum may be worth it to Memphis.

TL:DR - Very good chance Memphis would have done better value-wise going in a non-Winslow direction but given the potential fit it hopefully works out as a good deal for Memphis even if it never truly equals out as value in a vacuum.

[Whole Truth]

Nice take Vic.

Here's the thing, if you look at the trade at face value, it's not perfect. So I don't disagree with your stance but my philosophy is why I give this deadline an A.

Just as in trades it's often said the team that gets the best player wins. In the reality of Winslow being healthy or not, a couple late firsts, maybe a couple seconds thrown in, while it would have been nice to have additional value, it doesn't equate to the potential of a healthy Winslow. So Memphis got their target. IMO The equivalent of packaging mid to late picks to move into lotto position.

Winslow was once considered a Miami core piece, still only 23, he was available to trade due to injury, timing & circumstance. Was it a contract overpayment, it would appear so but Memphis got their prize. with no picks needed. They only had to take back a years worth of dead weight though it was absorbent, where they were facing Iggy's 17m buyout & it's somewhat mitigated by Dieng filling a need with quality. Dieng's value is being overlooked in this, it could be argued a plus as the only reason he was dead weight to Minnesota was the fact he was getting limited mins behind their superstar.

Even if Winslow doesn't pan out. He's better than anyone Memphis can throw money at in free agency, he's the equivalent of netting a top pick, hoping they develop as planned. He fills a hole in Memphis rotation where Josh is an uncertainty with his play & lack of control.

For me, it's always quality over quantity & I'm always willing to give quantity for quality. So if the necessary evil was to forego some added late pick, I'm fine with it. I wasn't in the negotiations to know otherwise.

Here's the caviote, Memphis really didn't lose the value on those expiring's either. I'd argue having them going into the 2021 free agent class makes them more valuable to the teams trying to land Giannis in a better free agency pool. As in most trades the better the targets, the better asking price. So the return on this cap space will actually be greater with the delay. Where they might otherwise have dead weight with this years compensation either having signed someone or already taken back more salary for a potential lesser return on it.

A
- Memphis got the best player in deal, a young Heat core member, with no pick compensation
- Memphis got value & need with Dieng. for an expiring
- While they got no compensation this year for the expiring value, they've set themselves up for a potential better return. in a Giannis FA pool

[Whole Truth]

Grizz traded 17m cap space for the 2024 GS top 4 protected pick, in return they faced having to buyout Iggy's contract.
They just bought out Waiters remaining salary, I assume around 4-6m plus his 2nd year which is roughly Iggy's buyout.
So by swapping the buyout to Waiters from Iggy, they netted Winslow & the GS pick for that 17m.

[E S V L]

All three trades got A on my end. We have exchanged our cap space for a young A level wing and a decent backup center - exactly what we needed. We now have 8 FRPs in 6 years and a fully built roster filled with young very decent players. What should I complain about?

All those who complain about the Winslow trade should be asked about an alternative way of using the 45 mln cap space. Don`t expect anyone will respond with any specific idea. Because there is no one better than the actual trade made.