Beyond the Arc - Griz Draft Board: Three Weeks Out

[GrizzledGrizzFan]

We're three weeks from draft day and no one — including, one suspects, the team's own braintrust — knows exactly which direction the Grizzlies will take with the #2 overall pick. Which is probably as it should be right now. On the day after the lottery, I laid out the four potential paths the team could take with the pick — trading up for Blake Griffin, draft (and keeping) Ricky Rubio, drafting (and keeping) someone else, or trading down or out (presumably with the rights to Rubio).And at the moment, all those paths still seem to be on the table.

Read it here.

[I Am Awesome-O]

Chris brought up Amare Stoudemire in the article, someone who's name I expect to be included in many trade rumors leading up to the draft.

I wouldn't mind an Amare(extended)/Rubio swap at all, especially after hearing all of the other idiotic trade/draft possibilities for Memphis.

I would rather give Phoenix a package featured around Gay and Conley for Stoudemire, but I'm not sure how interested the Suns would be considering all the rumors about their FO being uninterested in a Michael Beasley/Stoudemire swap. Perhaps they are for some reason more enamored with Gay than they are Beasley.

[Downtown]

While this article only confirms what we've discussed at length, it's nice to see it in writing to kind of validate out discussions.

I think the general consensus is that Thabeet should be out of the question and only for misdirection purposes should his name be brought up in any interviews with management.

James Harden is someone who hasn't been on the Grizzlies fans radar, that's for sure. With Mayo playing exclusively at shooting guard Harden just hasn't been considered an option. But I think that three man guard rotation might work, although I still prefer Mayo at the point with Harden the starter next to him. I'm actually warming up to the idea. Paul Pierce comparisons though? I know Pierce is only an inch taller than Harden but c'mon, we're talking about Paul Pierce. He plays big. In their dreams would James Harden equal Paul Pierce.

More and more Rubio seems like someone who isn't meant for the Grizzlies. I've been pretty steadfast in my belief that if they can improve the team and get a couple great assets in return for him they have to take it.

I also agree with the article when it said that nobody really knows what will happen right up until the Grizzlies are on the board. As mentioned, most deals are last minute affairs and I expect it will be the same this year.

And unless a team is prepared to pay the price for Rubio with a really good power forward I think sticking with the plan of signing an experienced one through free agency should still hold.

Now if they could trade Conley, Gay, plus the Grizzlies unprotected first round pick next year for Stoudemire, move Mayo to the point, and draft Harden, I'm all for it. In looking at the free agents coming up I think Amare would stick around and not opt after next season, thus giving Memphis two seasons of him plus being in position to re-sign him after that. The big group of power forwards will go this summer, which should set most teams at that position. Next years draft is loaded with big men, so with the likes of Bosh, Lebron, Wade, Pierce, etc., being the ones getting the big money, I think Stoudemire doesn't leave his big contract on the table and try for more somewhere else. Memphis would be in a good position to keep him.

Sign Trevor Ariza for small forward and you end up with Mayo,Harden, Ariza, Stoudemire, and Gasol. That's a pretty high basketball IQ starting five.

[sfernald]

I've been thinking alot about the situation for the Grizzlies. I've been watching basketball since 1980 and I've watched over 200 games this season (not including playoffs). My three favorite teams are: Lakers, Blazers and Grizzlies. My favorite player on the grizzlies is Mayo and I think someday he will be an All-NBA player, in the most elite category there is.

Anyway, I really believe it is small subtle changes that will get the Grizz into the playoffs, not big or unrealistic roster-changing moves.

First they should resign Hak, to show that they appreciate their home-grown players that play well. Someday every rookie the Grizz pick will reach the end of their rookie contracts, and it's the teams like the lakers that are able to keep their good home-grown players.

Next, don't overthink the #2. It fell into their lap. I think it is destiny that they pick the BPA, rather than try to get cute with the pick. The BPA is Rubio without question. Take him and make it work. It's very doubtful you will get much better value for it. Look at the Timberwolves last year: Would you trade Mayo back to them for Love and Miller??? Hell no.

I know you guys are so worried because you already have a good PG (maybe two if you count Mayo). I can remember a similar situation with the lakers in 1980. They had a great young point guard named Norm Nixon who they just drafted. He was a 17pt/9assist through many years of his prime in his career. It didn't make sense for the Lakers to draft the point guard Magic Johnson with the first pick. Yet the lakers picked the BPA and then adapted the offensive to work with these two players and the rest is history (first championship came Magic's first year). There's no reason why two 10 assist guys can't play together. The Griz just got to figure out the way to maximize the use of the talent on the court - that's where great (and expensive) coaching comes in.

And I don't make the Magic Johnson reference unintentionally. I like most of you had not seen much of Rubio other than the gold metal game against the US. In that game, he had his moments, but it was sorta hard to tell exactly just from that one game. So I torrented a game from the recent playoff game of DKV vs Real Madrid (game #2 to be exact) to get a better look at Rubio. Let me just say this was a great game to see his effectiveness (because he came off the bench because of a prior injury) to see what kind of player he was and what kind of effect he had on his team. I honestly can only think of two guards that I've seen that are clearly superior to him (MJ and Chris Paul). He made so many amazing plays and has such a court awareness and mastery of facilitating and getting people the ball that it was hard to believe. He also had many incredible drives to the basket that reminded me greatly of tony parker. His defensive was as in your face as it gets - we are talking about a guy who works just as hard on defensive as offensive (which is really saying something for someone so naturally talented). His team was clearly dying, but when he came in they played much better and ultimately one the game. He was gritty and not at all soft. He played through his injury and was knocked on his ass hard several times from brutal picks. At one point he make a steal and then a perfect no-look half court pass that I still don't understand how he possibly managed it.

In any case, you get the idea. He is the real deal and the BPA and it should be the Grizz front office's charge to get him on a plane to Memphis and do what is necessary to make him a happy Grizz player.

Before I talk about the backcourt situation, I want to talk a little about building a great team. I think most fans worry too much about depth. Memphis shouldn't worry about depth. First they should work on getting the best five starting players they can, hopefully as good or better than the majority of teams in the league. Let's look at the Grizz back court next year:

Rubio - PG
He is only 18 and will need time to adapt and make rookie mistakes, but I think he will be immediately be a 10 assist/10+pt player. He will probably be an allstar for 10+ years and taking his age in consideration and the fact that point guards last longer in the league, he could have an amazing 15-20 year NBA career. He will immediately make every other player on the Grizz much better.

Mayo - SG
I see Mayo as eventually becoming an All-NBA player in 5 years or so. I expect him to score over 20 pts per game and increase his assists and rebounds. Rubio and him will be a great tandem for many years, and it's ok if he has the ball some times. Kobe is a scoring ball that likes to have the ball in his hands. As long as he is effective with his touches, it is not a problem. Rubio will get plenty of touches to create.

Conley - Backup PG/SG
What a problem to have such a good player as a backup. Sure maybe he is more of a PG than a SG, but so what. He is great at attacking the baskets and he shot a high percentage from the 2 and the 3. He an adept and become an effective off the ball force when necessary.

There are a total of 96 minutes available for the back court. Having a small 3 man rotation will ensure all of them getting plenty of minutes. Mayo got 38 minutes a game last year. This year I see him getting more rest and about 34 minutes. Rubio will get about 32 minutes. And conley will get about 30 minutes. That is a very talented back court and the fact that the talent won't drop when the second team comes in is compelling. The youth of the back court should make it easy for these guys to handle these kinds of minutes on a regular basis. Don't worry about a deep bench right now. If someone gets injured, then the Grizz are screwed and won't win a championship anyway (just like the lakers and bynum last year and KG and boston this year), so don't sweat it.

With regard to the front court you have the following players:

Gasol C
Had a surprisingly great year and will only get better next year. Don't underappreciate this guy. He is full of potential and is non-soft kinda like a Scola type of guy.

Gay SF
I think Gay's talent exceeds his maturity right now. But he is young and it could easily all come together for him like it did for Melo this year. I could see him being a solid 20pt/6 reb guy for the next 8 years or so. You probably can't do better so there's no reason to move him. Great coaching will make a big difference with him. Once he solves the mental thing, he's an all-star.

??? PF
You don't have a starting quality power forward yet, so this is one place I think the front office needs to work on this summer. There are plenty of candidates out there this year for PF, but the front office is going to have to accept the fact that they are going to have to pay up. I don't think you need a scoring stud like Amare in this position. The ideal candidate would be boozer. David Lee is a great rebounder and used to being a finisher in a fast paced Knick offensive that would probably translate well in the new Rubio oriented offense, so he would work well. Then Milsap. Even Varajeo or Brandon Bass might work because I think they need a banger (like Boozer) over a shooter (like Aldridge) in this position. Time to open up those coffers though and get someone decent this year Grizz front office!

I think in the playoffs you usually play just your best eight guys, so if that's all you need, then you shouldn't worry about get a great player at #12. You got decent starters above. That means you just need to worry about getting three high quality backup players.

For backups players, it's really good to have versatile players who can play multiple positions like Lamar Odom.

Hak is decent and home grown. I don't know his game that much, but he ought to be able to fill in at SF/PF.

Conley will fill in at PG/SG.

Then you really need a quality PF/C backup. Maybe Brandon Bass or Amir Johnson could fill this position.


At this point, the rest of your roster can be filled with rookies and future prospects. You have a young prospect center in hamurabi. And a developing PF in arthur (although I'm not too high on him). And you'll probably have a few rookies from this year as well.

Now is also the time to dump your useless players such a Darko and Jaric, to make room for some more home-grown prospects to develop. Plus it will save you cap money for future needs.

Do this and I think you have a good chance of competing well next year. I'm not familiar with Hollins, but if you need an upgrade I would consider getting a defensive oriented coach such a Rambis or Ted T.


Wow, this post turned into a book. Sorry about that!

[GopherIt!]

Look at the Timberwolves last year: Would you trade Mayo back to them for Love and Miller??? Hell no.

Love & Mayo are going to be on par as pros. More like a "hell maybe."

[BarbaGrizz]

@sfernald

Man, your statement was brilliant! Please, send this to Chris Wallace and let´s hope he can achieve all the points mentioned.


@GopherIt!

now:
Mayo>>>>>>>Love

in the future:
Mayo>>>>Love

[Downtown]

I agree with the eight man rotation. I read where they are still looking at Boursasis, the combo center/power forward. Get a topend free agent power forward and combine him with Gasol and Boursasis.

I also like the idea of a reliable backcourt trio. I'm just not convinced Rubio is the best guy. But as mentioned, not too many of us has seen much of him so that's the biggest factor to me. It's just the unknown.

I also firmly believe in the need for a sixth man like a Pietrus, Ariza, or Posey type of player that is versatile and can come in as a momentum changer guarding the other team's best perimiter player while still being able to provid an offensive swing.

So I guess that makes an eight man rotation.