NBA/ABA Decades League Playoffs: Round 2 DUE SATURDAY

[SabasRevenge!]

Seven Key Points to Victory:
1. Defensive superiority at every position except for PG where both Cooper and Payton were DPOY. Unlike Payton, my players don't gamble for steals on defense, forming a cohesive defensive unit with excellent man and help D.

2. Bird guarded by Cooper (who he repeatedly said guarded him best) and must guard James, a stronger, faster player in one of the best offensive seasons ever. Worst possible offensive and defensive draw for Bird. Just as James won't be stopped, Bird won't be stopped, but he will be limited.

3. Mourning and Hayes are very good scorers around the basket (and have nice mid-range jumpers) and expert at getting to the line. My opponent's post scoring comes from his perimeter players, not from his big men. Havlicek will take Payton's post game away. Cooper is on Bird and I have excellent help defenders in the post.

4. Hawkins is a major weakness and attack point:

He could finish in spectacular ways, and he could make both plain and simple passes. Otherwise, he couldn't shoot, rebound, run, or play defense. How bad was the Hawk's defense? The first time he played in Madison Square Garden, the Suns tried to hide Hawkins' atrocious defense by matching him up with Dick Barnett. Too bad Barnett was so insulted by the ploy that he lit up Hawkins for 35 points. Also, nobody ever accused Hawkins of having a passion to play basketball: He once told the Suns that he couldn't play that night because he had a fever. A doctor was summoned, and Hawkins' temperature registered at 98.9. As a result, Hawkins felt justified to sit on the bench in his civvies. Hawkins was all flash and very little substance.

I can buy that Hawk would be an okay help defender, but if he's getting killed by a Dick Barnett who is close to retirement, he'll get absolutely destroyed by James, Hayes, and Unseld. Hawk is a 210# SF/PF who will be overmatched against stronger players for the entire game. We will exploit him for his entire 25 minutes and his teammates will have to help quite a bit to contain the damage.

5. Bench dominance of Hayes/Porter/Schrempf v. Williams/Bowen/Sabonis. With Porter and Hayes, two guys who will play at least half of the game, we will often play with a group of Porter/Havlicek/James/Hayes/Mourning, all potent scorers and good to great defenders. Who will Hawkins and Carter guard when those guys are our there? Schrempf only plays 10 minutes, but he's a deadeye shooter/versatile scorer, a very good passer, and (already at least an average defender) will be able to expend more energy on defense for those ten minutes.

6. Vince Carter's usage. Payton plays 40 minutes and Carter/Bowen is the backcourt when he's out. Who does Carter guard when Cooper's on the bench? Is Carter expected to be a third/fourth fiddle on this team? Can/will he accept that role?

7. Fatigue. Payton and Bird, my opponent's top two players, are both guarded by elite man defenders who will make them work VERY hard. Bird and Payton also have very difficult defensive assignments. Havlicek is the worst guy in the history of the NBA to have to chase around for an entire game and James is a nightmare match up for anyone.
[quote=Red Holtzman]"On stamina alone he'd be among the top players who ever played the game,"[/quote]

Larry Bird must have thought he was up against a Doberman pinscher, a bred-for-business beast who was in no mood for fun. Everywhere Bird went, a man with razored cheekbones, sinewy biceps and a flinty glare shadowed him...
...Cooper gave Bird fits, forced him into wild passes, poor shots and general frustration. Bird did all he could to catch a pass while the Lakers took a 13-point lead at the half. Bird did end up with 24 points on the strength of a late rally, but he was just 7 of 17 from the field.

Our defensive advantage in the post, on the perimeter, and in both man/help defense is clear. We also have an advantage on the boards with Unseld/Hayes/Mourning and solid positional defenders across the board. I will have a sizable advantage in points in the paint with Hayes/Mourning scoring inside, James/Hondo scoring at the rim, Hondo taking away GP's post game, great help inside for Cooper on Bird, and my opponent's bigs playing away from the basket. Carter and especially Hawkins give me two substantial attack points to exploit while offering my opponent no attack points. I am pleased with how we match up with my opponent on offense and defense, especially with what a nightmare this will be for Bird, my opponent's primary scorer.

With a superior defense, very solid rebounding, much better post scoring, and at least even overall offense, I believe that the Tall Firs will be victorious in this series.

[BlackIce]

Kirilenko is coming off the bench, and ultimately isn't a large enough factor to really change the course of this series. If he were to get an increase in minutes, we're still confident Barry would score on him (as he faced Bobby Jones last round), and that ultimately worsens BI's offense, and then opens up a spacing problem, since Kirilenko is not a good shooter from behind the arc. It's then much easier to help, as West is the only player capable of firing from distance.

Kirilenko is as good a defender as MMR, and comparable to Artest, he is also playing big enough minutes to be a factor, and although AK isn't a great 3 point shooter the other wing playing big minutes is Ginobli. In my chosen year, Ginobli put up 5.3 3PA, on 40% from 3. Spacing won’t be an issue, Ellis is elite as is West as well.

West is small, and already has enough responsibility, and while DJ could conceivably do the deed, he won't have much success either. I'm sure my opponent will point out, he's guarded larger players, such as Magic, and reportedly done a good job, but there's discrete differences in both of their games. Not only did Magic still dominate, even moreso (check his stats in general, they went UP against DJ, and the C's), but Barry has a much more offensively, "I'm going to score on you," attitude than Magic did. In terms of scoring points, explosively, Barry in his one year peak was unstoppable.

I’ve address how I’ll slow down Barry, DJ won’t be guarding him. Remember if Barry is unstoppable on 30.6 ppg on 46 FG% than his counterpart in Ellis is pretty damn close at 27.5 on 50 FG%, and better from 3.

Not to mention, that would leave Ellis on Ray Richardson. That would turn out to be an even greater advantage for us than any other matchup, because with his slashing ability, he'd blow right by Ellis, and with Deke busy guarding Hakeem, and Lucas drawing KG out to the perimeter, he'd be able to finish at the rim. Ellis couldn't guard players at his own position, let alone, a PG with size, and quickness.

That also creates other matchup problems, as that means West will be on Paul. He should do a good job, but Paul's primary job is to create, and like West, I'll concede gets his, as will Paul.

You assumed that since I put DJ on Baylor last series, I'll be doing the same again here, not the case so those matchup's simply aren't happening.

Which points towards our passing and execution to be much more crisp and efficient. The season chosen for West was his 64-65, in which he clearly hadn't developed into a PG role, something he did in the late 60's, and early 70's. Then factor that in with 70's DJ, meaning the one who played on the Sonics, he wasn't a PG either. Both the starting guard for my opponents team averaged under five assists per game.

West was still an elite passer, and in this role he is more than capable of helping DJ run the offense, with KG playing the point-forward role, and Ginobli's play-making off the bench. DJ was the PG for the Sonic's just not a tradtional one, and saying both of my West averaged under five assists per game is a technicality, he averaged 4.9, the year before he averaged 5.6, the year after he averaged 6.1. West was capable of handing out more assists, but thats not what the team required him to do.

BTW AK averaged 4.1 assists per game, and Ginobli averaged 4.5, passing isn't an issue here.

On the other hand, we've already gone into depth Paul's all time assist to turnover ratio, Barry's playmaking from the wing (while proving he wasn't ridiculously turnover prone), and even MRR, and Hakeem from the post. Our passing is better at every position, save PF. For that alone, no matter how clutch West was, Barry in his one year peak is comparable, and our team all rounded are a much better executing team.

Paul is being guarded by one of the best defensive PG guards ever, and gives up 4-5 inchs, he'll have trouble on both ends of the floor in this matchup, MMR is playing 10 minutes at SG, Allen and Artest aren't very good playmakers, and KG/Hakeem in terms of passing. Barry isn't really comparable to West I go into that in my writeup.

And it's interesting to note, in the last round, Manu Ginobili was the combo hard off the bench, playing all the backup PG minutes as well. I'm sure saying all this, that will be quickly changed, and Hardaway will get those remaining thirteen odd minutes, but ultimately that wouldn't be enough. I could see my opponent raising his minutes, but that also means, he'll likely have to cover one of Paul, or Allen/MRR, which means, whomever Hardaway is on, will likely take advantage.

Surprise. I'm fine with Manu, he is a good defender, a great playmaker and scorer, and clutch as hell.

Also, Bellamy is the only true low post option on my opponents team, and he wasn't a particularly strong defender, not to mention, with his reputation being as a sort of blackhole. And, while I'm not a largely in favor of this argument, he is after all, a rookie nonetheless. But, he obviously won't be there in a closing lineup sense, so that's moot. And while I feel big man get exploited in clutch time (not in Hakeem's sense), it's important to have a post option that can get you easy buckets during the game.

This is simply not true, even though KG is an elite mid range guy, he is most certainly a true low post option, especially against the much smaller Lucas.

We'll be putting MRR. He has the size to disrupt West's ability to pull up and shoot, and have the quickness to stay with him in transition, or slashing to the basket. West will still get his, but with an elite defender on him, he'll get his with a greater difficulty than Barry will.

MMR is playing 10 minutes at SG, the bulk of the minutes are being played by Allen and even Artest plays more minutes.

It also helps we can double off of DJ, as he's a pathetic shooter from the field, roughly 42-43%, and not a threat from behind the arc. He barely averaged three assists, and at this point in his career, wasn't a guy that could beat you offensively.

Finals MVP, All-Defensive (1st), 15.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 steals. 1.2 blocks, %43 FG, %78 FT. Clearly "barely averaged three assists" is an exaggeration, and DJ isn't a guy you measure by the stats, T-Mac of all people knows this. I'd like to note that DJ also put 21/6/4 on 45% in the playoffs in this season.

As for Ellis, he'll be hard to stop, but ultimately, on this team, he's a spot up shooter. Barry wasn't a terrible defender, he at the worst forced turnovers, and had the size, and attitude to body up with his man. Ellis will get his, but it won't be enough to win this series. It's also interesting to note, we'll have Artest in the game for 26 odd minutes, a DPOY wing player capable of guarding Ellis effectively.

Barry won't be able to stay in front of Ellis, period.

This puts Paul ON DJ, which means Paul can entirely focus on doing his thing offensively. As I've already gone over, DJ was a very poor offensive player that shot a terrible percentage from the field, and hadn't developed that mid-range shot in which he used so often later in his career. And with obviously not being a threat from behind the arc, or anywhere for that matter, it opens up chances to help on defense with West's penetration, or Ellis's shooting (we feel it's not important to double the bigs, as KG thrives when he is doubled, as he's not a big time scorer, and Mutombo is strictly a defensive player in these competitions).

You under estimate DJ at your own risk, he is more than capable of explioting Paul on the defensive end, and if you want to play the percentages go ahead, DJ's playoff run was very good and to say he basically isn't a threat offensively is ridicules. KG one on one against Lucas is the biggest miss-match in the series, and West will be playing a lot beside Ginobli who is a great 3 point shooter and Ellis who is an all-time great one.

94-95 Deke vs. Hakeem 93-94

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35 points, 17 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 blocks on 16-31
22 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks on 10-24
33 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 5 blocks on 15-28
31 points, 12 rebounds, 1 assist, 5 blocks on 11-27
34 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists, 8 blocks on 15-21
26 points, 13 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 blocks on 11-24
27 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 blocks on 10-23
41 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 blocks on 16-26
25 points, 13 rebounds, 1 assist, 5 blocks on 12-22

(9 games sample size, over those two years)

30.4 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 5.4 BPG, .513 FG%

This also proves that Hakeem has more freedom to block shots because Deke wasn't an offensive threat. It also reduces Deke's shot-blocking as he'll be too busy ineffectively guarding Hakeem, stats back that up as Mutombo averaged 4.0 blocks over those two seasons, and averaged just under 2.7 against Hakeem. That's nearly 40% drop off in terms of blocks per game by Deke.

Hakeem won't get held down in this matchup, he'll absolutely, and thoroughly dominate it. And if Bellamy were to come in, well, we know.

First off, it's hard to compare a player's production against another team, and say that it is really a Hakeem vs. Mutombo thing. Team-mates aren't taken into account, a 9 game sample is rather small, and we have chosen years for a reason. KG helping out on defense is a lot different than Bison Dele doing so.

I think in this case, it's important to see the head to head matchups. Above, I've shown above, with Hakeem's stats, it's interesting to note, Dekes games were as follows:

93 rebounds (9 games) --> 10.3 rebounds per game. And as we saw, Hakeem's was at 11.8.

Again this is irrelevant, as teams aren't considered and other factors come into play. In his chosen year Mutombo averaged 12.5 rebounds, on an 82 game sample size, not 9.

KG is an elite rebounder, but Lucas himself is one of the greatest of all time. Pace adjust and it's closer, but Lucas still has the slight edge. Regardless, they're comparable enough, while Hakeem is proven to outplay Deke on the boards (in everything rather), that we can say our frontcourt has the edge in rebounding.

I agree Lucas is a great rebounder, one of the best. That's also the only reason he is a starter in this league, but unfortunately for him KG beats him out in this department. Feel free to look over the numbers in my writeup.

I love BI's backcourt rebounding, as both West, and DJ are great rebounders at the G position. The same can be said for MRR, who's a better rebounder than the both of them, and Paul, whom I actually picked in his worst rebounding season. But whatever edge there is negated with Barry, and Ellis, as Barry is a considerably better rebounder than Ellis as well.

Keep in mind the minutes each player is playing, MMR can't be compared to West, he is only playing 10 minutes at SG, his backup PG minutes (15) are being matched by Ginobli. DJ is a better rebounder than Paul and Barry is slighty better than Ellis on the boards, but gets killed in this deparment by AK47.

We feel if we can control the boards, as we've shown, our team can prevail victorious.

I agree with this sentiment, but like I show we are the better rebounding team.

We also would like to admit, KG will get the best of Lucas, but we'd like to note as we have mentioned before that one of KG's strengths is his rebounding. In this case, that's pretty much negated. Lucas isn't a terrible defender either, he's not a great defender, but he's noted as one of the smartest defenders to have ever played, even known for knowing every play from every teams playbook. Add that into the fact that KG is not the explosive scoring type that can average 40 points for a series (or even for a game), then he won't absolutely kill us, and not be enough a deciding factor (as his rebounding will also be negated covering Lucas on the perimeter) to overcome the large edge we have in the Olajuwon, Barry, and Paul matchup.

Lucas's isn't a good defender, and at 6'8 he is going to have a lot of trouble in this matchup, moreso than he would in a lot of other ones. KG doesn't have to average 40 points to kill you, and in this role we are going to feature him and his passing game will shine when the help is forced to come. If not he'll score on Lucas at will, and this doesn't take into account my other advantages on the offensive end.


*note to judges: I also finished up my original writeup, updated it to include some other stuff

[bastillon]

myth is about to put up his writeup. in the meantime I'll start judging.

AITN vs SamBone

Shaq
SB's team is facing very similar problems as in the first round. Shaq, absolutely dominant force in the paint, is being guarded by Robert freaking Parish. I can understand that Parish was a solid defender overall, but he doesn't stand a chance here. other bigs won't help here either. Camby, Pettit and Oakley can't defend Shaq, no way. Sam Bone emphasized these points:
1) Shaq will pick up a lot of fouls (pick and pops, Worthy abusing his defender)
2) he doesn't have enough stamina to play up tempo basketball
3) hack-a-Shaq

AITN has provided good counter argument for 1). it's convincing enough. Shaq averaged much less fouls in that year and I don't think this team puts enough pressure on Shaq to make mistakes. Robert Parish and Camby are soft, jumpshooting big men. pick and pops don't result in fouls, they result in jumpshots. these plays are very comfortable sollution for AITN's team. Parish and Camby definitely won't put Shaq into foul trouble. the other point he made is that Worthy will abuse his defender. I'm not sure what you're saying but if you think that Worthy will somehow abuse DPOY Rodman (most mins at SF), then this is a ridiculous argument. Worthy isn't even all that good iso scorer, let alone against a defender of Rodman's caliber. 2) and 3) aren't even possible together. when you're fouling Shaq, he's shooting FTs. when he's shooting FTs he can rest and you can't run. I think this isn't a way of slowing down Shaq. he'll abuse your poor defensive bigs very fast with this kind of defensive scheme... I don't know maybe it's just me but I don't know how this is supposed to slow him down.

MJ
I think SamBone's head2head gamelog is convincing enough. MJ will absolutely abuse Moncrief. I don't think Moncrief was as good as advertised anyway, but considering that MJ dropped 37, 50, 27, 38 pts while completely shutting down Squid (single digits) it's not even a contest. I like the idea of putting different defenders on MJ though. I don't think Frazier will be very succesful because he dominated with his strength not his quickness, but Rodman was doing great against Michael and should slow him down, definitely. still, with Rodman mostly matched up against forwards, he won't make a big impact and MJ will make a living on the other defenders. although Jordan will dominate, it won't be even close to Shaq-like domination because Frazier, Squid and Worm are still great defenders and Shaq is matched up with 100 pounds lighter guys.

MJ will get his. Shaq will destroy everything that gets in his way (and there's not much anyway). big advantage - AITN.

forwards
Pettit vs either Rodman or young Sheed is a nightmare for him. his opposition was extremely poor back in the days, as Heinsohn was 2nd best PF at the time. I think such a dramatical change would force Pettit to struggle mightily, because both Rodman and Sheed have all the tools to stop him. they have enough length to bother his shots and they're mobile enough not to get burnt off the dribble. Worthy/Marion vs Worm/Peja/Hudson is interesting. as AITN said, he is using these guys only off ball, to provide spacing and rebounds in Rodman's case. they'll do they job just fine. Sam Bone on the other hand is counting on his SFs to make plays and score a lot, as much as Worthy can score early on, matched up against Hudson, he'll be contained very well by Rodman. Marion isn't even offensive threat in the NBA let alone in ATL. Marion got half of his pts on a silver plate off of pick actions with Nash. Sam Bone hasn't said one thing about their two man game so I'm assuming there's not gonna be a lot of this. to somehow force Marion into being an iso scorer isn't reasonable. Worthy will do alright early on, then he'll be stopped be Rodman for the rest of the game. Marion won't do any damage and it's a huge advantage for AITN that he can guard him with his poor defensive SFs (Peja mostly).

Nash vs Frazier. I'm Nash fan but this is a terrible matchup for him. as much as he can do well on offense because of Frazier's limited quickness, he'll be dominated on the other end. contrary to what people believe, Nash isn't a bad defender against most PGs, bc his quickness is pretty good. his strength though is terrible and against a strong guard like Frazier who overpowered his opponents in his days, he'll be dominated. I don't get SB, he said:

And to be perfectly honest with you, I hope he does. If Clyde tries to be a one man show I am COOL with that. If he is trying to score, that means he isn’t getting Shaq the ball in the paint, or getting his other team mates the ball! So please Clyde try to outscore me by yourself instead of doing what made you great.

Frazier was a scoring point guard who attacked the paint at will. that's exactly what made him great and that's exactly what makes Nash a vulnerability on defense. your answer is to let him get his ? really ? give him a layup, why don't you ? it's not a good tactic at all.

Nash won't have much problems against Fraziers defense though (Frazier's too big to slip through the screens). Nash's offense should be great in this series... unfortunately limited bc SB wants to give his SFs more touches and use other positions a lot more (against much worse matchups) than he should.

because of Shaq's and Frazier's matchup + much better rebounding, AITN's team will score every time down the floor and shoot a lot of free throws too, stopping them from running. SB's team is great halfcourt team, especially against bigs who aren't known for their perimeter defense (Shaq and Sheed) so I expect a lot of jumpshots from Pettit and Parish. still, I can't see them dominating in the same fashion as AITN's team, because midrange shots are still ~38-46% TS shots generally and even assuming a lot of free throws from MJ and considering great midrange shooting on this particular team, I can't picture how they could dominate the same way as they're being dominated on the other end.

this should be easy for AITN. this is a terrible matchup for this particular team, SB. I think you built as great offense as you could but it's just not destined to beat this team. I value interior defense a lot, especially when you're playing against Frazier and Shaq, you don't have any.

vote: all in the name

[TMACFORMVP]

Quick Rebut - I don't mind even if it's not read, as I'd like the judging to begin, lol.

Kirilenko is as good a defender as MMR, and comparable to Artest, he is also playing big enough minutes to be a factor, and although AK isn't a great 3 point shooter the other wing playing big minutes is Ginobli. In my chosen year, Ginobli put up 5.3 3PA, on 40% from 3. Spacing won’t be an issue, Ellis is elite as is West as well.

How much will Ginobili be on the floor when Kirilenko is in though? Like I've conceded, MRR has the tools to guard West, but ultimately West will still get his. Whether it's Kirilenko, or Ellis, Barry will get his as well. So in short, while AK is in the game, Barry will continue to get his (maybe with a greater effort), but the overall spacing (because Ellis will be on the bench) becomes worse. That's more my point. It's likely to see a lineup consisting of DJ, West, AK, KG, and Deke on the floor. That won't cut it offensively, as DJ/AK were adequate at best, Deke being a non-factor, and KG, as noted isn't the one to explode in a series.

I’ve address how I’ll slow down Barry, DJ won’t be guarding him. Remember if Barry is unstoppable on 30.6 ppg on 46 FG% than his counterpart in Ellis is pretty damn close at 27.5 on 50 FG%, and better from 3. You assumed that since I put DJ on Baylor last series, I'll be doing the same again here, not the case so those matchup's simply aren't happening.

I assumed nothing based on your last series. To be honest, I couldn't even remember who you played. I assumed so, because I didn't expect Ellis, who is the worst defensive player of both starting lineups to be on my best offensive player on the perimeter. And, If you notice, I was prepared for every situation. In fact, I would have thought, those matchups would have been better for yourself, and worse for me. If Ellis is guarding Barry, and as I've displayed the dominance Hakeem displays on Mutombo, there's NO answer for my top two scorers.

West was still an elite passer, and in this role he is more than capable of helping DJ run the offense, with KG playing the point-forward role, and Ginobli's play-making off the bench. DJ was the PG for the Sonic's just not a tradtional one, and saying both of my West averaged under five assists per game is a technicality, he averaged 4.9, the year before he averaged 5.6, the year after he averaged 6.1. West was capable of handing out more assists, but thats not what the team required him to do.

BTW AK averaged 4.1 assists per game, and Ginobli averaged 4.5, passing isn't an issue here.

Eh, the point still remains, if guys like AK, and Ginobili are being mentioned to try to make up for a lack of passing, then it becomes a problem. West was a SG at that time, he was easily able to maintain those scoring numbers, with higher assist numbers later in his career. It's true the role that was asked of him was different, but in this case, he's expected to be a 30+ PPG scorer as well, so the fact remains West wasn't a superbly high volume assist man in his chosen season. There's no "pure," PG on the team is what I'm referring to.

Paul is being guarded by one of the best defensive PG guards ever, and gives up 4-5 inchs, he'll have trouble on both ends of the floor in this matchup, MMR is playing 10 minutes at SG, Allen and Artest aren't very good playmakers, and KG/Hakeem in terms of passing. Barry isn't really comparable to West I go into that in my writeup.

I don't understand the constant comparing to West, and Barry. Neither are matched up with each other, and neither will be guarding each other. It's not a slight to Barry claiming that he's worse than West, rather a compliment, that we have a player that's comparable to his top pick in the draft, while ours was a late second rounder. And Barry, in his one year peak was as good as any perimeter player to have ever played.

And Paul's struggle against larger players is overplayed IMO. Wasn't the same thing supposed to happen, when he played Jason Kidd in the playoffs, the year I've chosen? Kidd himself, also has 3-4 inches on Paul, also with a good defensive reputation, should be able to take Paul out of his element as well right?

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24.6 PPG / 5.6 RPG / 12.0 APG on .500 FG%

And DJ isn't the sort to really exploit a player IMO. It's true he has nice playoff stats, and he should be amended for that, but his efficiency in general was poor, and he wasn't much a post up player. Paul isn't a bad defender, in fact he was an All-NBA defender these past two seasons. With DJ's efficiency, and Paul being able to stay in front of him, and Hakeem in the paint being able to roam, we'll take our chances with DJ taking on a greater offensive role, and him taking shots rather than West. If DJ beats us, with an All-NBA defender on him, playing out his normal role, then so be it.

Surprise. I'm fine with Manu, he is a good defender, a great playmaker and scorer, and clutch as hell.

But he's not a PG. That was more my point, not that he wasn't a good player, but that he's playing a critical position, with no other pure PG to truly compliment his game.

This is simply not true, even though KG is an elite mid range guy, he is most certainly a true low post option, especially against the much smaller Lucas.

We're really not afraid of KG in terms of his scoring, Lucas isn't a terrible defender to the extent Ellis is, and if things really get out of hand, we have the option to put Olajuwon on KG, and Lucas on Deke. Since Mutombo wasn't a scorer, Lucas's lack of size isn't hurt, and Hakeem has all the skills, but to a greater extent to put a hold on KG.

In fact, don't be surprised to see that for the majority of the game. We just have too much flexibility, both offensively, and defensively, to have a matchup take us out of the game. On the other hand, there's no other options for my opponent to put on my best offensive players, ultimately being the turning point in the series.

MMR is playing 10 minutes at SG, the bulk of the minutes are being played by Allen and even Artest plays more minutes.

Again, that flexibility and defensive versatility is what we thrive on, MRR is also playing 15 minutes at PG. We can easily put him on West from there, since once again, we're completely fine with Paul guarding DJ on the defensive side of the ball.

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Finals MVP, All-Defensive (1st), 15.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 steals. 1.2 blocks, %43 FG, %78 FT. Clearly "barely averaged three assists" is an exaggeration, and DJ isn't a guy you measure by the stats, T-Mac of all people knows this. I'd like to note that DJ also put 21/6/4 on 45% in the playoffs in this season.

That has nothing to do with the point I was trying to make. The point was we could help on DJ, because he was a poor shooter. 43% from the floor, and no history of a three point shot, or even decent mid-range shot at that point of his career would still be my argument, because we can help on DJ, since he wasn't a shooter, period.

Barry won't be able to stay in front of Ellis, period.

I don't think I ever claimed he did, but moreso, Ellis's role being primarily a spot up shooter. He'll thrive in that role, but in the grand scheme of things, it's much easier for a player to guard a spot up shooter, than guarding someone that's scoring from all angles. And it's apparently obvious, that the longer he's on the floor, the more he's a liability, as he's guarding Barry on the other end. I'd bet all the money in the world that Barry beats up Ellis, moreso than Ellis attacks Barry.

You under estimate DJ at your own risk, he is more than capable of explioting Paul on the defensive end, and if you want to play the percentages go ahead, DJ's playoff run was very good and to say he basically isn't a threat offensively is ridicules. KG one on one against Lucas is the biggest miss-match in the series, and West will be playing a lot beside Ginobli who is a great 3 point shooter and Ellis who is an all-time great one.

Again, we have options, we can easily put Hakeem on KG if he's "dominating us," which we feel won't be needed. And if West is playing alot with Ginobili, and Ellis, that means, Paul, Allen, and Barry have free reign. If they can't be stopped, being greater offensive options than my opponents, and Hakeem cannot be stopped, how does my team lose?

And DJ is good. We can agree that I attacked him a little hard, but the bottom line was that he was not an efficient offensive player, not a large volume scorer, and the whole Paul gets beat up by larger guards thing overplayed. We saw what Paul did against a larger guard, and we reiterate, if DJ has an increased role to try to beat us, we'll take our chances with his slashing/inefficient offensive game, and Hakeem in the paint (free to roam for the while), then if DJ beats us, fine. And, my opponent has been pointing to his bench for nearly every instance, we can do the same, and bring in Larry Nance, whom is an elite defender, and shot-blocker, making it even harder to score in the paint.

First off, it's hard to compare a player's production against another team, and say that it is really a Hakeem vs. Mutombo thing. Team-mates aren't taken into account, a 9 game sample is rather small, and we have chosen years for a reason. KG helping out on defense is a lot different than Bison Dele doing so.

Come on, that matchup was primarily Mutombo versus Hakeem. And the bottom line was, Hakeem didn't have to defend Mutombo (thus the over 5 blocks), and Mutombo's statistics went down on the effort he put defending Hakeem (thus lesser rebounds, and lesser blocks). Hakeem killed him, no way around that.

Again this is irrelevant, as teams aren't considered and other factors come into play. In his chosen year Mutombo averaged 12.5 rebounds, on an 82 game sample size, not 9.

This is relevant, since we both chose similar seasons for both players. Over that stretch, Hakeem outrebounded Mutombo on a consistent basis, nearly every game. Nine games, over the stretch of the season(s) we chose is pretty substantial.

I agree Lucas is a great rebounder, one of the best. That's also the only reason he is a starter in this league, but unfortunately for him KG beats him out in this department. Feel free to look over the numbers in my writeup.

That's not the "only," reason why he's a starter. That's a slight at Lucas, as he was a tremendous offensive player, with his jumpshot often being called as efficient as a layup. The shooting numbers he was able to display while being primarily a jumpshooter was insane, he was well above league average, and will spread the floor defensively, taking KG out of the paint, and still be in rebounding position to rebound with the best of them.

Keep in mind the minutes each player is playing, MMR can't be compared to West, he is only playing 10 minutes at SG, his backup PG minutes (15) are being matched by Ginobli. DJ is a better rebounder than Paul and Barry is slighty better than Ellis on the boards, but gets killed in this deparment by AK47.

Again, MMR wouldn't have to guard Ginobili, as we have that flexibility to choose whatever matchups both offensively, and defensively.

Lucas's isn't a good defender, and at 6'8 he is going to have a lot of trouble in this matchup, moreso than he would in a lot of other ones. KG doesn't have to average 40 points to kill you, and in this role we are going to feature him and his passing game will shine when the help is forced to come. If not he'll score on Lucas at will, and this doesn't take into account my other advantages on the offensive end.

Again, what happens if we switch Hakeem, and Lucas? And I think you underrate Lucas defensively, and overrate KG offensively. I mean, when he was with the Knicks, he was the starting C in an era filled with top offensive C's, and not only did he play well, but the Knicks were one of the top five defensive teams in the league. I'm sure Frazier played a large role, but if Lucas, the "terrible," defender was playing out of position, I'd have expected it to be worse.

-->

Artest's character issues still didn't stop him from being the NBA's DPOY, an All-NBA player on the best team record wise in the Eastern Conference. As for Barry, he was a prick OFF the court in his later years, but a reason why he was able to lead the Warriors to the chip' was because of his maturing into a team player on the court.

Teammate Clifford Ray diplomatically told Sports Illustrated, "Rick may not be the kind of guy to say please, but he's in it to win."

I don't think it's as easy as saying "West is better than Barry," or "Ellis will then be guarding Ray Allen." Because first of all, Barry, and West are not the ones being matched up (as there's nobody adequate to begin the game defending Barry), and Allen would murder Ellis as well. Attacking Barry defensively isn't wise in the grand scheme of things when Ellis is even more a liability.

And, I just don't feel those easy buckets will come. With no Hardaway in the rotation once again, the three guard rotation for my opponent is West (as he was a SG in the early 60's), DJ (a SG in the 70's), and Ginobili (a SG period, never been a PG, and definitely not one in this competition). There's no pure PG on my opponents roster, it should be fine, as they were decent passers, but it's interesting to note that all three of those guards don't average even a standard benchmark, 5 assists per game from the backcourt. KG is a great passer, which helps negate that, but my opponent claims the offense will run through him, I just don't think that's adequate in an ATL, where KG is the primary anchor of your offense.

Ultimately:

- Mutombo can't play Deke. Hakeem dominates him in every statistic, nearly three more blocks, more rebounds, all while dropping 30 points on over 50% from the field. That's REGULAR season Hakeem, not even counting the one that took his game to an even greater level in the playoffs. This is the biggest advantage in this series, much larger than KG, and Lucas. As Lucas should be able to play him on the boards, efficiently get off his shot, and force him out in terms of covering the paint defensively. We also have that option of switching defensively.

- The unavoidable that Ellis will be on Barry, or Allen. Both will torch him whenever that's the case. And, as for Kirilenko, he's good, but he can't shoot from the perimeter. If he and DJ are on the floor, the spacing all of a sudden becomes poor, and easier to help on West, the only player that can explode for 30-40 in a series. And Kirilenko isn't good enough to match up with Barry, as I pointed out, who was unstoppable in the chosen season from everywhere on the floor. He should limit him certainly more than Ellis, but in general, Barry, like West, will get his.

So those two points would show, despite his perimeter defense, they have no bearing on how our perimeter players will perform (see Paul against Kidd too, whom was still a worse offensive player than Kidd at the time). Then factor that in with Hakeem raping Deke, and Lucas spacing the floor, our offense won't be stopped.

- DJ isn't an average offensive player, no PG for better execution down the stretch, Deke also not being an offensive threat, and Kirilenko when in the game, not an adequate, nor reliable scoring option in a competition of this magnitude, while KG isn't one to explode, BI's team lacks the offensive punch needed to beat my team consisting of elite offensive players with favorable matchups.

Best of luck BI.

[bastillon]

Cellar vs Sabas

Bird vs James. this is a crucial matchup in this series. I consider James as better player so it obviously affects my judgement, but I don't think this advantage is fully used. James won't do very well against young VC, he'd be much better against Bird bc he could take away his post game with his superior strength and athleticism to bother his fadeaway shots. instead, James is guarding monster athlete Carter who will blow by him at will (James is only solid man defender, especially against SGs). this is definitely a big mistake for me. Bird on the other hand, will make a living on Cooper. as has been evidenced by Cellar, Larry dominated against the Lakers and that will be the case here as well. this gives Cellar two matchups to exploit in this series, a variety of opportunities considering level of competition. Carter will also keep Lebron close to him what minimizes his help D. on the other end, Lebron will obviously blow by Bird anytime he wants, but what Cellar did is very convincing to me:

The goal of our defense is going to be to play a similar defensive style to what the Celtics used. We'll grant Zo and Unseld jumpshots and sag into the lane to harass LBJ should be get past Bird (same with Hondo). Cooper and Hondo will see a little bit of daylight when Lebron's handling, but not much. The same thing goes for Lebron when Hondo's handling the ball. Depending on how the game goes, we'll move everyone from positions 1-4 and cross-match as necessary (Bird on Unseld, Hawkins on Hondo/LBJ, Payton on Cooper playing help D or on Lebron, etc)

as much as I hate Bird's man defense (awful lateral quickness), I love this strategy. neither Zo nor Unseld are good or solid midrange shooters and you can easily provide them some daylight. even then, it'll be very hard to stop Lebron from dominating the paint because both Hawkins and Lanier aren't particularly great help defenders. I think Sabas' bigs shooting midrange jumpshots is a good thing for Cellar, but Lebron will still dominate as there's no answer for him - shotblocking is quite poor, Bird's man defense awful.

PF matchup
this is another bad matchup for Sabas. Unseld is not a scorer and won't exploit Hawk's terrible man D. on the other end Hawk will score a lot since Unseld wasn't very mobile and was much better banger than faceup defender. Unseld's quickness clearly isn't enough to keep up with Hawkins. Unseld will dominate this matchup on the boards though.

Centers
Sabas emphasized how Mourning is a very good scorer in the paint and how great he was at getting to the line. I understand your points but I don't think he'll see much success here. Lanier was known for his physical defense and that's exactly how Mourning dominated (by strength). I think Lanier's strength will considerably limit Zo's scoring, this combined with the fact that Lanier was known for containing Kareem makes me believe he'd defend Alonzo very well. on the other end Cellar emphasized that he'll pull Zo away from the basket and doesn't plan to give Lanier many touches which is to me a great tactic. it limits Mourning's help defense in the paint and at the same time lets Carter, Bird and Hawkins dominate their matchups.

Payton/Havlicek
this is another example of great tactical move by Cellar. Payton is fine chasing Havlicek off the screens because he has excellent quickness and plays passing lanes amazingly well. Havlicek's offense will be limited, definitely. he didn't really have post game to use his size on GP and Payton is a great defender who can stay in front of Hondo and contain him reasonably well. on the other end, Havlicek will completely shut down Payton who is overrated offensively anyway and without his post game against taller Hondo, he won't do any damange offensively. it's even worse for Cellar that he's trying to force things down low with Payton ("His defense is further compromised by the fact that my other two "smalls" will be playing in the post frequently in Bird and Payton") as obviously it's not gonna work against Havlicek, especially considering how Payton played very poorly vs playoff competition in his career. he was usually well below 50% TS IIRC and he was doing this against PGs mostly. Payton is insanely overrated scorer, he can't shoot, he can't get to the line, he only scores when he has little PGs on him. his TS% is poor. I don't like GP's offense and I don't like him in this matchup. they'll cancel each other out, but Havlicek will be better anyway.

rebounding goes to Sabas, clearly. even Cellar admitted this. it's not a huge advantage but it's sizeable. passing goes to Cellar, no doubt. he has great passing big men while Sabas has poor passing bigs. Bird is a (much) better passer than Lebron, averaging so many assists while playing mostly off the ball is much more impressive than Lebron's assists numbers. Hondo and Cooper are very good passers, but VC is an underrated (great) passer and Payton isn't bad. I think ball movement could be an issue for Sabas. bigs can't pass and there's no real PG besides Porter (who isn't all that good anyway). Cellar has some amazing passing on his team though he could draft some more passers in the backcourt...

I don't think bench is an advantage to either. just role players doing their things.

overall I'm not sure how Sabas offense is going to function. besides James, there aren't any good scoring options considering their matchups. I don't see Alonzo dominating against Lanier. I don't perceive Hayes as any offensive threat because he's inefficient, can't pass and has poor shot selection. I don't think Havlicek will do well against Payton. Unseld isn't even a scoring option in normal NBA. seriously, you can always try forcing things with James all game long but he's ballhogging isn't a good choice considering how Cleveland's offense sucks when he's doing that. stagnant offense, especially without great shooting and poor passing bigs isn't exactly what you need. also James plays the best alongside shooting big men and only Hayes can shoot on this team, albeit overshoot... Cellar, on the other hand, has some great scoring options in this series. Bird can do whatever he wants against Cooper. Hawkins will take Unseld off the dribble with ease. Lebron won't do well against Vince on defense. it doesn't help Sabas that his bigs will be pulled away from the basket bc of Lanier's/Hawk's midrange game.

I think Sabas has a better team overall, but this particular series goes to Cellar, no doubt in my mind.

vote: CellarDoor

[CellarDoor]

Not going to bother combating Sabas' points more because frankly he's already pushing the limits of how much I as a judge would want to read and I don't want to add to it and B at this point it becomes about whether what he says and what I say passes the smell test. Judges do as you will.

[Snakebites]

Alright, I will first judge the matchup of CellarDoor vs. Sabas

First, I will address Bird and Lebron. While Cooper did make an excellent living in his career as a defensive stopper, he is essentially trying to guard a small forward who possessed, in addition to the great passing and shooting skills of a top end small forward, the skills characteristic of power forwards in todays game, notably post play. Given his height, I simply do not believe Cooper has what it takes under any conditions to successfully limit Bird's all round game, and I believe that career numbers against Los Angeles generally support that assertion. You might see a slight drop in his passing efficiency, but not enough to sway things. I do not believe this choice puts Lebron in better position to control the series.

I do believe that head to head Lebron should maintain a high level of effectiveness against Larry Bird as well, given his clear edge in quickness and overall athleticism. Because of this, I believe that in terms of overall capacity, Bird will be every bit as able to take over this game as Sabas's best player, Lebron James. The separation becomes more clear as you look down the rosters.

I also agree with Cellar on rebounding and passing. I agree that Sabas has an edge in the rebounding department, though concede that it is not overwhelming. And with the trio of Payton, Bird, and Lanier, I believe Cellar stands to boast an advantage there.

On the whole, Sabas's team is relatively limited offensively in its options. Unseld is not a scorer in this league, and Cooper, while possessing some range, is not a player who defensive strategies need be planned around. He requires some attention, but not so much that he will rain death down upon his opponents if not guarded carefully on every possession. Alonzo Mourning was efficient, but his offensive game was generally lacking in versatility and polish. I view him as an opportunistic offensive player and below average in the context of centers in these competitions on that end of the floor. The bench isn't exactly flush with first rate offensive options either. Cellar, on the other hand, has considerably more tools at his disposal on that end of the floor, from Payton to Lanier to the versatile if not entirely dependable Vince Carter.

The issue becomes somewhat more problematic when you factor in the effect that Payton stands to present against Hondo. I do not believe Hondo can be stopped man to man by Payton, at least not entirely, but I do believe he does have enough size, strength, and general tenacity to make things, relatively speaking, difficult. The converse is true as well, but I see Hondo as more critical to Sabas's offense than Payton to Cellar's.

Cellar's team has holes defensively, but Sabas's team has too many places those holes can hide. Generally speaking I consider offensive versatility and balance to be every bit as important in these games as defensive capacity, and any team that has to limit itself with two weak offensive players starting may find itself without enough options to compete. My normal instinct is to identify with the strong defensive team, but I believe this team sacrifices too much on the other end at this stage in the competition.

For these reasons, I vote for CellarDoor.

[Snakebites]

Next I will vote on the matchup of Sam Bone vs All in the Name

I'm not sure if I've ever seen a matchup in these games against teams with greater contrast in styles.

Generally speaking, on one side is an extremely strong offensive team with some defensive issues, particularly in the interior. On the other side is a beastly defensive team which, while not lacking in scoring ability and efficiency, has some issues with spacing.

As with any matchup, its most important to look at how teams address their opponent's key weapons. As such, I will address Michael Jordan and Shaq. While Jordan's head to head stats against Moncrief may look fine, this is largely because Moncrief, while being amazing defensively and strong offensively at his peak, had a prime that was regrettably cut short by health problems, and as such by the time Jordan had hit the floor Moncrief was, while still in the league and not yet at an age one would consider "old" in an NBA sense, was already well beyond his beak abilities. As such, head to head stats aren't entirely useful here. While I do believe Jordan will still be this team's best weapon, I cannot imagine a better man to man defender for hm than Moncrief, and occasional switches with Rodman and Frazier should be enough to ensure a long and difficult series for Jordan. The Jordan selected is somewhat past his peak, but I'm still inclined to believe he can be effective here, if perhaps not quite at his usual level.

Shaq, unfortunately for Sam Bone, is another matter entirely. Here, a believe a strong interior defense is essential. Failing in that, you have to either continue to foul Shaq and reduce your opportunities to run (something Sam Bone needs to do here if he wants to win) or allow Shaq to dominate from the field. A Catch 22 that I'm not sure Sam Bone's team can find a way around here. I'm not convinced he has the tools to keep Shaq in foul trouble.

Looking at the rest of the roster, while Bob Pettit is someone I consider a very strong second option at this level, he will be guarded by effective man defenders throughout most games, whether it be Rasheed Wallace or Dennis Rodman. This matchup is an advantage for Sam Bone, but I believe All in the Name has the capacity to address the concerns reasonably well. Rasheed's range may also help to somewhat limit the rebounding advantage enjoyed by Pettit by drawing him away from the basket.

Frazier is also proven to be an effective go to man in the clutch and during the playoffs when need be, and I believe for this reason, along with his defense, he has a decided advantage over his counterpart, Steve Nash, who may find his size and general toughness rather overbearing.

Overall, I believe that in the battle of contrasting styles that All in the Name's team is better suited to control the tempo and that their franchise player will be the MVP of this series. I do like the way Sam Bone's defense comes together, but I think they ran into a matchup that will prove to difficult on their defense.

Vote All in the Name.

[Snakebites]

Alright, now to TMAC and BI's matchup.

Looking at the perimeter matchup, a few things come to mind immediately. Firstly, that West is clearly the best perimeter player on either team and the one most able to take control of a playoff series at this level. In spite of MMR's strong defense, which should nonetheless make him work, I would not be surprised to see West have a strong, though perhaps not entirely dominant series. The other, however, is the relatively limited nature of BI's passing game. Though using KG down low does help limit the issue to a certain degree, BI's team starts two players who became point guards at a later point in their careers, but as of selected years that aspect of their game was not yet fully developed. DJ's offensive game was unfortunatly not well developed enough at this stage in his career for his size to be a considerable advantage, even against 6'0 CP3.

Conversely, while DJ/West is effective defensively, I believe CP3, with Ray Allen to kick it out to offensively during a considerable portion of the time he is one the court, to be a sound and effective offensive attack that should retain some effectiveness. Guard play will relatively close in this matchup overall, in spite of the best player on both ends playing for BI's team.

At the small forward spot, I have difficutly imagining Barry not boasting a considerable advantage. Ellis is the weaker defender and has less versatility and explosiveness to his offensive game. Ellis will be an effective spot up shooting option even with the limited nature of BI's passing game, but Barry should be able to have a strong series here.

Looking at the 4/5 positions, I am inclined to agree that KG is at a considerable advantage over Jerry Lucas. He should have the height to effectively post him up and shoot over him. That said, I have never considered KG an explosive scorer or a player of the caliber offensively to run an offense through in an ATL context. The presence of Mutombo on offense also allows Hakeem to be of assistance in somewhat limiting said advantage. I also love Lucas in these games because, in addition to himself being a great rebounder, his amazing range also has the effect of drawing opposing power forwards out of the paint and limiting their rebounding opportunities, dealing a serious blow to any team hoping to attain a considerable rebounding advantage. Hakeem demonstrated an ability to be very effective in a league flush with defensive centers of the era, and had individual success against Mutombo. Under normal circumstances, KG/Deke would be an effective tag team to limit any major offensive center, but putting Lucas on the perimeter limit's KG's contributions there.

Overall, I believe this matchup favors TMAC.

[Dr Positivity]

All in the Name

PG: Walt Frazier (40) / Dana Barros (8)
SG: Sidney Moncrief (34) / Lou Hudson (14)
SF: Lou Hudson (11) / Dennis Rodman (24) / Peja Stojakovic (13)
PF: Dennis Rodman (12) / Rasheed Wallace (30) / Theo Ratliff (6)
C : Shaquille O'Neal (40) / Brad Daugherty (4) / Theo Ratliff (4)

vs.

SamBone

PG – NASH ( 38 ), VAN LIER ( 10 )
SG - JORDAN ( 39 ), TONEY ( 9)
SF - WORTHY ( 30 ), MARION ( 18 )
PF - PETTIT ( 27 ), OAKLEY ( 12 ), MARION ( 9 )
C - PARISH ( 33 ), PETTIT ( 10 ), OAKLEY ( 5 ), CAMBY

All in the Name's Offense vs SamBone's Defense... side of the court

Shaq is clearly the focus of the AitN's offense. SamBone's interior d.. well it's going to have problems. I have to alter Sam's plan and minute distribution a bit... Parish will not make it through 33mpg all against Shaq in terms of fouls, especially if he'd get tired out along the way. So the likely result when Parish is sitting is more Pettit-Oakley together. Oak's 17mpg ends up all at C. Oakley is tough enough for the role, but gives up a ton of inches to Shaq who will get his

Right away I love Rasheed's 30mpg at PF beside Shaq as the 3 point shooting PF he thrives with. Sam's PF rotation will be unable to help on Shaq as long as they're out there on Sheed. If they go to double Sheed will get an open 3

Lou Hudson hit shots from 3pt range in his day, so when he and Peja are playing for 24 minutes of the game they will excellently at SF in the Shaq offense and Worthy and Marion will be unable to help off them without getting burned. However when Rodman is the other 24, just the opposite. 36mpg of the game Rodman will be playing at SF or PF which is a HUGE offensive problem with the next paragraph.

The backcourt is the biggest problem in the Shaq offense. No 3pt shooting or spacing in the Frazier/Moncrief backcourt. This creates a handful of problems. First is you're missing an oppurtunity to get open 3s which are as efficient as Shaq's inside shots. Secondly Sam's backcourt will now have two guards hanging inside the paint who can pick off entry passes, especially Jordan. Parish, Pettit, Oakley won't be able to stop Shaq, but the guards will wreck havoc when you're passing it into him. When Frazier, Moncrief, Rodman are playing at once, there will be 3 non centers in the paint working to double Shaq or force turnovers. And although TOs are always a problem... when your opponent emphasizes the fastbreak, it's a MAJOR problem

Frazier and Moncrief are good scorers, very good. But as mentioned in the write-up - Not Shaq or open 3s good and the team will likely be happy with their shots. Nash on Frazier is a mismatch but Nash struggles more with fast guards.

SamBone's Offense vs All in the Name's Defense... side of the floor

The big name that pops up here is Michael Jordan. Interestingly the 96 version. Which is a weakness here because the big Frazier is an EXCELLENT matchup against older Jordan. In his case Moncrief can easily switch and guard Nash.

The fastbreak is outstanding. Nash is one of the best fastbreak PGs, Worthy and Marion are monster finishers and runners (and Marion starts breaks with his boards), Jordan's rebounding will help start breaks, Pettit can rebound and run like in his time. Furthermore because of the lack of spacing in AITN's offense, SamBone's team will get a ton of TOs which will be pure deadly with this break

Because Jordan's invididual scoring will be weaker against Frazier, Sam's main weapon will be to exploit Shaq's pnr defense. Shaq is a good man to man defender but against Pettit and Parish's shooting he will struggle and it will eliminate the opposing d's shotblocking. The guy who'll take advantage of this is Worthy. Against Hudson and Peja his first step will be unguardable. Rodman can guard him... but Rodman on the floor massively weakens AITN's offense for reasons mentioned

TOVs should be a strength for this team. Jordan's Bulls finished 1st in TOs in 96 so he takes care of the ball. Nash's Suns were also near the top of the league. Shooting bigs are better for reduced TOs because you don't throw entry passes. Worthy didn't turn it over much.

The rebounding battle: Edge to AITN when Rodman's on. Pettit is much better than Sheed, but Frazier's PG rebounding is a big edge. Overall even away from Rodman

Overall thoughts: AITN's team has Shaq... but the rest of the team doesn't fit him much at all offensively. Shaq is dominant but lost for the first 7 years of his career... In LA where he was surrounded by 3pt shooters... here, not so much. Defense should hold the backcourt, but struggle with Worthy's 1st step and the pnr. The X Factor is the TOs. AITN's team will have a ton and with Nash/Marion/Worthy/etc. giving the ball up is like giving up a free bucket. Transition points can also swing the momentum of games

Sam's team should be a powerhouse offensively with a Suns like fastbreak, Jordan, and two scoring bigs creating a deadly pick and pop against Shaq. Defensively they'll rely on throwing bodies on Shaq and forcing a lot of entry pass TOs. Shaq will still get his... but I am more confident in SamBone's offense dominating this series in this case

Vote: SamBone

[Dr Positivity]

BlackIce

PG - Dennis Johnson (35)/ Manu Ginobli (13)
SG - Jerry West (40)/ Manu Ginobli (8)
SF - Dale Ellis (25)/ Andrei Kirilenko (23)
PF - Kevin Garnett (40)/ Horace Grant (8)
Cc - Dikembe Mutombo (35)/ Walt Bellamy (13)

Tmac
PG - Chris Paul (33) - Micheal Ray Richardson (15)
SG - Micheal Ray Richardson (10) - Ray Allen (26) - Ron Artest (12)
SF - Rick Barry (34) - Ron Artest (14)
PF - Jerry Lucas (34) - Larry Nance (14)
Cc - Hakeem Olajuwon (40) - Jermaine O'neal (8)

BlackIce Offense vs Tmac Defense... side of the floor

The two big offensive guys are Jerry West and Kevin Garnett. Naturally they will play the pick and roll/pick and pop a TON and will be nearly unstoppable doing it. Dale Ellis is a very nice 3rd option who shoots 3s and plays off the ball. Mutumbo and Johnson play a supporting role offensively but aren't horrible. Tmac's team will find it nearly impossible guard those pick and roll/pop plays - Their best counter is Hakeem who can at least reduce the effectiveness of West's drives

BlackIce's bench scoring is EXCELLENT. Ginobli and Bellamy can both light it up and swing games. I assume when Kirilenko comes on, so spacing is not an issue

They should keep TOs low without any entry passes, lots of pick and pops, and as Ellis as an off ball low TO player. I don't know West's TO numbers but he had strong hands which should help him

Offensive rebounding should be very good, albeit not exceptional

Finally Johnson, West, Garnett, Mutumbo are VERY high character, winning players. These are the guys you want to go to war with

Tmac offense vs BlackIce defense... side of the floor

My initial gut seeing Tmac's offense is it's filled with players who need to be the facilitator. Paul, Sugar, Barry, and Hakeem did best as the guys "making it happen".

One of the main options clearly is a Paul/Lucas pick and roll/pick and pop similar to Paul's partnership with West. On these plays Allen and Barry spread the floor, Hakeem's range takes away the shotblocking. Thus penetrations will open the perimeter for 3 pointers

Another big option will be feeding Hakeem in the post, but he will not have the spacing he did during his title years, so it will be easier to double and harrass him.

Another big option is Rick Barry as the team's best scorer, especially when Ellis is on. However here's a rib... you can run Paul pick and roll plays, Hakeem post plays, Barry plays... but not all 3 at once. Too many mouths to feed. (I didn't even include Michael Ray or Lucas there) I think the "need' to feed Hakeem and Barry will hurt the team by taking away from their most efficient option - pick and rolls with Paul. The more they go to Hakeem the worse. It'll create TOs throwing in the post, he was turnover prone himself, and he's not that efficient.

Overall this is a very hard offense to gauge because I don't know *how* they'll play. They certainly have far more individual offensive talent than the opposing team. Theoretically if Hakeem and Barry just spotted up the whole game and they ran Paul/Lucas pick and rolls and open perimeter shots, I'd take them here. I just don't think it'd happen. My other issues is with where the team is mentally. Barry is a notorious dick, Sugar has major off court issues, Artest is... Artest, Hakeem once upon a time was a whiner... I'm just not sure all these guys can pull it together mentally whereas BlackIce's team is exactly the opposite

This is a tough one for me... it's team fit and role vs pure talent.. for that reason I suspect Tmac's team wins the most votes here. I'm voting for BlackIce. Ultimately everything falls in line with them. Offense is run by West and KG, Ellis is the off ball scorer, Mutumbo is the interior defender, bench is the bench. Tmac's role has 3 CLEAR #1s in Paul, Barry, Hakeem, then a couple other 20ppg guys in Allen and Lucas, and Sugar who plays like Magic... it's just too much. When you have guys who are normally the alpha dog playing supporting roles, they try less hard defensively and on the boards and chucking to get their shots. I expect that's the real impact on the too many heads bit. With BlackIce's team you know exactly what they'll give you, with Tmac's it could work out really well and it could be an epic disaster

Vote: BlackIce

[Warspite]

Cellar Door vs Sabbas Revenge


What strikes me in this matchup is that Sabbas doesnt use a conventional PG and that realy hurts GPs game to physicaly overpower small PGs and play smothering defense with his length adv. This is a mjor problem for CD because one of his greatest strengths realy is taken away.

Sabbas with matchups nullifies GPs post game and with his offense can slow down Bird by having LBJ attack him over and over again. Im just not a believer in having your #1 option guard the other teams #1 option simply because 2 quick fouls can decide the game by halftime.

I do think Lanier can draw out Zo and get the better of him and completely outplay him. Yet that allows GP/Bird to post up bigger players who are pretty good defensively. Im looking at #1,#2 options and how to create easy buckets and it just looks like CD has to work much harder than the Tall Firs. LBJ driving on Bird and finding open shooters/cutters is just much easier than GP posting up on Cooper.

I want to say that I respect Sabbas for going unconventional and useing no PG. Its a gamble and this rd it worked IMHO. Vote:Sabbas

[Warspite]

AITN vs Sambones

This is contrasting matchup that says tempo dictates. History teaches me the faster team rarely wins and that the plodding C is the answer. However Shaq does have weaknessess and they can be exploited by Sambones. Parish with the step out jumper and quickness and speed adv for easy buckets. Pettit with his ability to draw fouls and shoot tons of FTs. Nash with his pick and roll offense.

I have been torn on this because if theres a way to beat Shaq/Wilt/Hakeem w/o a dominant bigman defender useing Parish, Nash and the FT kings MJ/Pettit is the formula to take him down. Against my team with Wilt they would cause me pause but I know Wilt is more mobile than Shaq and likes to play uptempo. After consulting several people I trust including my dad (who saw Pettit) and conclude that Shaq vs Sambones offense will be similar in production while Shaq takes a EFF edge. I realy dont think MJ vs Shaq is the decideing factor here.

Again I believe Pettit will be able to score in the smaller Rodman much better than K Malone and Rodmans tactics dont realy work with Pettit who is used to a much more physical play. I think Sheed can play better def and his offense is better balanced. Still Sheed is going to get frustrated gaurding Pettit who was the alltime leader in FTA when he retired. I realy question the mental ability of a team with Rodman and Sheed as major factors. I think back to Rodman loseing a Finals game in 88 and Sheed in 95 on stupid bonehead plays. In a close game they are prone to lose.

Theres no doubt that AITN has one of the 2 best def backcourts in this tounrey and they have the ability to hurt MJ if anyone can. The def trio of Frazier/Moncrief/Rodman provides a challenge to Mj like he has rarely had. Yet I think hes up to producing and Nash will get his pts. I however dont believe Nash will get his apg and his def will be exposed.

Worthys famed triple double game in game 7 88 Finals happened with a young Rodman guarding him. Worthy for the 1st few half court possesions will abuse Hudson and then Rodman will switch over and be able to reduce Worthy to a garbage player but hes still going to outproduce Rodman.

What settles this for me is that AITNs backcourt def is much better than SamBones frontcourt def and MJ will have a much tougher time getting 30pts than Shaq. Furthermore Frasier is the much better 2nd option that is able to score on Nash much easier than Pettit on Sheed.
Theres no doubt in my mind that this is a 7 game series and that when Samebones team wins they win big and its a blowout. I just see too many weaknesses and too many places where AITNs team can take adv and get a few more easy baskets. Of course when SamBones team gets those easy baskets they win big.
Vote: All in the Name

[ronnymac2]

Myth vs. Miller.....

Like in round one, I am willing to judge this matchup again if Myth can put up a writeup before judging is over and everybody is okay with it. Presently, Miller gets my vote.

Tim/Artis vs. Nate/Kareem looks so insane. Those are nasty frontcourts. You basically have four of the top 15 centers ever.

Good writeup, Miller. You tried emphasizing your advantages. I like how you explained your height advantage as well as how McGrady being off the ball negates Robertson's ability to get steals. One small issue I had....while it's true Thurmond averaged more assists, he wasn't a better passer than Duncan. Good job overall.

[Snakebites]

I also have a standing vote for Miller given only he has a writeup.

Depending on the timing, I will be willing to judge that matchup in full if Myth presents a proper writeup.

[ronnymac2]

AITN vs. Sam.....

First, two things. Toney is the second best selection in this tournament, after Willie Wise. I told a few people to take Toney, as the guard position in the 80's isn't great ito top-level talent, but has nice depth, with Toney leading the way. Also, I appreciate how both of you explained plays to me and showed how certain matchups will work. It makes judging easier, and reading more enjoyable.

I think Pettit is going to have a nice series. While I think Sheed is a very nice defender, I don't think his style of defense is going to bother Pettit. It's like going up against Dirk with Moses Malone's toughness. I remember Dirk having some monster games against Portland Sheed, and I remember 04 Karl Malone getting Sheed in foul trouble in his limited minutes of the 04 finals. Pettit's face-up game and activity on the offensive glass will allow him to produce. On the other side, Sheed's shooting does take Bob away from rebounding position. That leaves Parish to keep Shaq off the glass. Not a good matchup.

Frazier vs. Nash might be the most important matchup for me. If Sam had a point guard who could really pressure Frazier and make things slowly get to Shaq, it would have been a great advantage. Nash can't do that, however. He's not as bad a defender as most say, but this matchup is bad for him. Frazier can get down the court, fire clean post-entry passes into Shaq, hit his mid-range shot over nash, and post him. The post up part is important. Nash then is playing baseline to baseline as opposed to foul line to foul line. That limits Sam's transition opportunites if his pg is buried under the basket.

Frazier will likely limit some things Nash does, but Nash might be one of the 3 most skilled players ever. He knows how to protect the ball against pressure. He's a master of the pick-n-roll, where he can shred frazier for two seconds. Steve's turnover numbers are because he's very creative. Sometimes even his own teammates don't know the ball is coming (and that's there fault). Jordan, Worthy, and Pettit are smart enough to know.

Marion can't score in iso's. Worthy can, but he won't win you games, especially against Worm. I like these two players with Nash because they are incredible finishers who don't need the ball and will dunk a lot off Nash's passes. James is an underrated all-around player, too.

This is something I'm having trouble with. Why was 96 Jordan picked? I'm actually a big fan of 96 Jordan. On the PC board, I've repeatedly said that 96 Jordan is his most underrated version. Still, it's not his best version. The Bulls liked slowing things down so this version of MJ could post up. With a running team, I think it'd be better to use the more energized, more athletic Jordan who played d more consistently. Say 91 Jordan.

Now, will Jordan get his? Yes. But the strong Moncrief, the strong Frazier, and the strong Rodman (who was able to at times keep 1990 Jordan in front of him) are excellent defenders to throw at this version of MJ, who liked to use his strength more often than in the past. That helps.

Shaq's going to be Shaq. He will not defend the pick-n-roll despite being in shape this season. It's a stupid mentality that he always had. Parish will get open jumpers. Shaq will shut him down in the post though. Shaq will also get uncontested rebounds if Parish is playing 18 feet from the basket.
Obviously, Shaq will dominate individually. Parish is an excellent defender who will be able to bother Shaq's baseline fadeaway with his length, but Shaq's power advantage is too much. This version of O'neal is in shape- trying to tire him isn't the best plan.

I don't think the spacing issue is that big of a deal for AITN's team. The guards have mid-range games, and shooters come off the bench. Sheed helps.

Overall, this series will go six or seven games. I think AITN has some major matchup advantages that will capture victory. Sam's amazing pick-n-roll players will cause problems for Shaq, Pettit will produce, and MJ is the best closer in the series. These factors make the series outstanding and fun to watch. Shaq and Frazier are too much for their matchups, Jordan is being defended by great defenders over the course of the entire game, and AITN's defensive plan to make Parish and Worthy try to win games give his team the victory. AITN's team wins. Excellent job by both of you.

[Warspite]

BlackIce

PG - Dennis Johnson (35)/ Manu Ginobli (13)
SG - Jerry West (40)/ Manu Ginobli (8)
SF - Dale Ellis (25)/ Andrei Kirilenko (23)
PF - Kevin Garnett (40)/ Horace Grant (8)
Cc - Dikembe Mutombo (35)/ Walt Bellamy (13)

Tmac
PG - Chris Paul (33) - Micheal Ray Richardson (15)
SG - Micheal Ray Richardson (10) - Ray Allen (26) - Ron Artest (12)
SF - Rick Barry (34) - Ron Artest (14)
PF - Jerry Lucas (34) - Larry Nance (14)
Cc - Hakeem Olajuwon (40) - Jermaine O'neal (8)


After reading BLs writeup twice I still dont dont know
1. Are they a halfcourt team or uptempo?
2. What kind of offense are they running? (Triangle would very interesting with West/KG)

Im going with a dump into the high post with KG whos trying to find cutters/Shooters and score. The pick and roll and pick and pop will be effective vs the slow footed Lucas. Im simply not a fan of West getting to the rim with KG/Deke/Hakeem all in the paint. I do see him running the baseline and coming screens and being very effective ala Ray Allen or Rip Hamilton. Im a big Dale Ellis fan and theres no doubt hes undderrated in ATLs but in a matchup vs Rick Barry its not a pretty sight.

CP3 and DJ going at it is a interesting duel. Is DJ quick enough to stay in front of Paul? Will Pauls shooting force DJ to gamble and force Deke to step up? Im guessing yes and thats where Paul kills you. However I have little doubt that West is destroying MRR but is he breaking down the defense or is he just getting his own offense? I dont see enough ball movement and gambling from Tmacs teammates to believe that West will be doing much more than getting his own production.

Theres no argument that supports Deke vs Hakeem. Its not going to happen. The counter is West vs MRR but he has to counter Barry vs Ellis as well.

Im taking TMac because of these factors
1. Hakeem/ Barrry have huge advs over there opponets. Ellis is bad on def and Deke doesnt get enough offense.
2. Tmacs bench is superiror. IMHO Black Ice is one of the few GMs that realy could have used a superstar high scoring 6th man. Manu simply doesnt get it done when a English/Dantley/Pierce type could have.
3. BlackIces team reminds me of the 80s Bull/Hawks. They live and die on one superstar player and if he doesnt have a great night its going to be a long one. KG has been known to defer too much and theres simply not enough inside punch to make the dealdy 3pt shooters effective.

Im sure TMacs team is going to have trouble with Hakeem vs Deke but it has the 2nd option to take over a game and it has plenty of offense as well as good defense. Its simply a more balanced team. BL is surronding West with great defenders and a good but not great 2nd option. My hats off to BL for building one of the greatest def backcourts I have ever seen but with Deke at C instead of a high scorer like McAdoo its doubleing down on defense and loses its balance and puts too many eggs into 1 basket.

[ronnymac2]

Cellar vs. Sabas....

I read this last night and wasn't sure who I thought would win, so I let it simmer. It's become a bit more clear. It's a very difficult series to judge because I think both teams are only going to be able to score in the low 100's (low for this tournament). Basically, it's this tourny's version of the old Knicks vs. Heat rivalry in the 90's.

I think putting Coop on Legend was a good idea. One might be tempted to put Lebron on Bird, but I think that'd be a giant mistake. Bird's outside shooting takes James away from playing help defense. Bird loved coming off screens, which is Lebron's big weakness because he's too big. Lebron in theory would be an excellent post defender, yet is reality is just decent. I think it is better to guard Bird with Coop. That said, Bird will get his points, but I actually don't think he'll dominate the series.

Hondo vs. Payton will be a defensive struggle. Both loved to pressure the hell out of people and had incredible stamina and overall athletic ability. Both are better man defenders than they are iso scorers imo, and with the help d of their teammates, I don't think either of them is going to dominate. I think they'll both have good series on both ends. Neither will dominate. Thing is, Hondo is Sabas's second best offensive player. So this works in favor of Cellar.

Lanier vs. Zo is a big matchup. Lanier will pull Alonzo away from the rim, as Bob was an excellent jump-shooter. This hurts Sabas on the glass, as Zo was only a good rebounder to begin with. I don't think Alonzo can keep Bob from producing either. Bob's style of offense is good against Zo's style of D. Alonzo will, however, impact the defense. He's might be a top 5 shot-blocker/help defender/physical presence ever. On the other side, Lanier's heft is going to take away from Alonzo's ability around the rim.

I don't see how Unseld is going to attack Hawkins. Hawkins is weak defensively, sure, but Wes isn't an iso scorer. Both of these guys are youngsters, so they'll make their share of mistakes. I've seen full games of Hawkins in the NBA, and he was a superb athlete with a nice J. Even though this version of Wes is more mobile than usual, Hawkins face-up game should be decent. I don't think this matchup decides much though.

Bird can't guard Lebron. I mean, nobody can, but Bird really can't. The thing is, Lebron is being asked to create a lot for himself and for others. Like, a lot. And he doesn't have the best personel around him, especially given the quality defenders. Cellar's strategy of sinking back into the paint and making guys who aren't great spot-up shooters is a good idea.

Can LBJ slow down VC? I think it'll be tough for him to do so. Vince's first step is elite, and he's a good shooter from deep (one of the better catch and shoot 3-point shootering superstars from this era, along with Allen and Pierce).

The benches will do their thing. I don't think it decides this series.

I'm taking Cellar's team in a defensive-oriented 7-game series. I'm swayed by a few things. One is I think Lanier will win his matchup overall. I also think Vince will be able to outscore whoever the second scorer is on Sabas's team. Finally, the quality big man passing will help Cellar out. His bigs can help his smalls out more than Sabas's bigs can help his smalls out. In this series, everybody will need all the help they can get.

Cellar in 7. Good job guys.

[ronnymac2]

TMac v. Blackice.....

Both very well-thought out writeups. Descriptive, detailed, lots of knowledge about the individual players...well done guys.

I've watched West games from around this time, and though I don't think he was ever a pure point, he could definitely play that role decently enough. He was a combo guard. As was DJ. With those two, as well as KG and then AK and Manu as excellent passers, I don't buy Tmac's argument that BI's passing is poor or that the lack of a true Billups-like pg will hurt. I don't think lack of passing ability will hurt execution here.

DJ was at his best on help defense and guarding bigger guards. Chris Paul is such an amazing ball-handler with such quickness..I don't think DJ can slow Paul down. What if Paul and Hakeem play the pick-n-roll, with Lucas, Barry, and Richardson (or Allen!) spreading the floor? Are DJ and Deke going to be able to cover that Pick-n-roll?

Kevin Garnett is clearly a better player than Jerry lucas. This matchup is very interesting. I do think KG will be able to score on lucas 1 vs. 1. I like how Tmac clearly stated that he'd for the most part cover KG one vs. one, limiting his passing ability. That imo will hurt Ellis the most, as I foresaw KG finding Ellis curling off screens and whatnot. I think KG can get 25 a game, but it won't be in a devastating way.

Jerry West is an amazing player. I'm a big fan of Rick Barry and I think he gets underrated. While I understand that they aren't guarding each other, whoever plays better is crucial here. I think Jerry is the better player, but I don't see how Barry is going to be stopped here. Maybe KG is the answer with his amazing ability to play trap defense in the mid-range and baseline. But does he leave lucas? And with the smart players that Tmac has, what happens when they realize that they can just then throw the ball into Hakeem 1 vs. 1?

What makes the Barry vs. West matchup so big is Tmac's advantage at C. It makes the wing matchup a must-win. I don't think KG, going up against Lucas, can outproduce Hakeem going up against Deke and rookie Bells. Dikembe Mutombo is a great defender, but his value is more as an anchor/shot-intimidator/shot-blocker. I don't think he can slow down Dream, especially with the excellent passers Dream has getting him the ball. I would have liked to see BI talk about how he'd use Deke a little more offensively. You need to go at Hakeem/Shaq/Wilt/KAJ types. Now, Dream just gets to help out in the paint. I think his help d will affect DJ cutting and Ellis sneaking baseline the most here.

Bells will get schooled by Hakeem (rookie Bells vs. JO is interesting though). Nance is a nice defender, but KG is just the much better version of him. Manu and Ray are two of the best bench guards in this tourny. AK helps on d but hurts on O (though his passing is excellent). Artest can guard Ellis effectively, and Ho Grant is a tough SOB who plays d and can work the pick-n-roll/pop with West while Garnett rests. Both benches have nice players who likely won't the decide the series.

I'm going with Tmac here by a little bit. His gameplan to let KG and DJ be scorers is a good strategy imo as it lessens the impact Ellis, Deke, and the bench will have. DJ isn't a go-to iso scorer and KG's best attribute is making other guys better. West will go off (I like Ray Allen's d and MRR is a very good defender, but this is Mr. Clutch we're talking about), but not enough to offset what Barry is going to do on the other side, not to mention CP3. The C matchup is in favor of Tmac.

Tmac in a series that will draw the most ratings, will get the most hype, and will probably have the most exciting moments. I really like this series. Great job guys.

[Miller4ever]

I think it's safe to say that AITN, Cellar, TMAC, and I advance to the next round?