RealGM

Round robin format: You will submit two writeups, one for each of your first round opponents. Whoever wins two matchups from that group will advance. If nobody wins two in a given matchup, margin of victory will be determined by looking at the votes.

Participants are encouraged to vote on all matchups not in their group of 3. Outside input by invitation only. All voters expected to be objective and thorough.

The groups:

Bracket 1:

Warspite
poopdamoop
nba_addict


Snakebites
SabasRevenge!
bryant08

Bracket 2:

penbeast0
BlackIce
TMACFORMVP

CellarDoor
Sam Bone
Miller4ever

Black Magic

Penny Hardaway (40)/Mark Jackson (8)
Eddie Jones (24)/Dell Curry (24)
Dan Majerle (38)/Eddie Jones (10)
Chris Webber (38)/Olden Polynice (10)
Shawn Bradley (28)/Olden Polynice (20)



VS. T-Mac

PG - Jason Kidd (26) - Nick Van Exel (22)
SG - Joe Dumars (32) - Nick Van Exel (10) - Dennis Scott (6)
SF - Dennis Scott (18) - Jamal Mashburn (30)
PF - Horace Grant (34) - Sam Perkins (14)
Cc - Hakeem Olajuwon (40) - Sam Perkins (8)

As always T-Mac has built a great team, no surprise there. Ok I'll keep this short.

Misconceptions

Dumars isn't nearly the same player he was in his prime, especially on the defensive end. On offense, he is shooting 43%, and 30% from 3. Kidd isn't "Kidd" yet, he is a damn good rookie, but he isn't the monster he becomes later on. He is shooting 27% from 3. Dennis Scott is the only real 3 point threat in the starting lineup, which allows us to pack the paint a bit to try and slow down Hakeem. Also the sample size that T-Mac uses to compare Ho Grant to Chris Webber (remember this is pre injury Webber in WAS, who was an absolute force offensively) is A) very small and B) doesn't account for team-mate's, etc. Ho Grant is an excellent role player. Webber is a star.

Defense

Length and size are the key to our defense. Our shortest starter is 6'6 and our perimeter defense of Penny/E.J/Majerle is elite. Majerle is our defensive stopper obviously, and will be guarding Mashburn and Scott, with E.J on Dumar's and Penny on Kidd. We'll sag off their back-court (except Van Exel) and you'll see a lot of zone and trapping.

At 7'6, Bradley has the size to clog the paint, and with the poor spacing our opposition has we think we can hold Hakeem below his season averages. Polynice is a strong defender off the bench and that combo at center is one we like defensively.

Bradley/Polynice/Webber give us great shot blocking as well.

Offense

Penny/Webber pick and roll will be our bread and butter. We will also feature Webber in the high post (4.7 APG, GOAT passer at his position in this game, maybe ever with KG), and we have strong 3 point shooting around him. Marjerle (4.1 APG) is in the prime of his career, and we feel that our passing is the best in the game.

Penny will run our team of course, he is the 1# option, and he can attack quite a bit with him/Marjerle/Webber sharing the play-making duties.

Conclusion

Outside of Hakeem, our opponent's offense simply isn't good enough to win this series, it'll go 7 but in all honesty I think we win this series.


VS. Penbeast

Penbeast has a solid team offensively, and it's the first time I've faced him. Should be good!

General Thoughts


-Passing/playmaking are two department's we dominant in this matchup I see a lot of scoring with Reggie/Green/Barkley/Smit's but who get's these guys their touches? Who finds them in their sweet spots? Smit's/Reggie were the cornerstone's of those IND teams throw in Barkley and I'm not sure this team is balanced enough

-Marjerle (underrated I think, I took him over Smit's which tells you what I think of Thunder Dan) will absolutely kill Reggie and will give him hell on the other end.

-Weak defensive and shot blocking front-court of Smits/Barkley/A.C Green, we'll get to the rim at will in this series, and Reggie is famously below average in this department. The only real player that can stop anyone in their starting lineup McMillan and even he won't be able to stop a Penny in his short but amazing prime.

THAT HOT SOBE CLUB – Divisional Matchups

Code: Select all

SF CHARLES BARKLEY 6’6  PER 36 -- 11.4reb, 4.2ast, 23.6pts @ .572ts% (3.3x3pa@.338)
PLAYOFFS -- 39.0mpg, 13.4reb, 3.2ast, 25.7pts @ .580ts%

SG REGGIE MILLER 6’7 PER36 -- 2.8reb, 3.3ast, 21.5pts @ .620ts%(6.3x3pa @.415)
PLAYOFFS -- 37.7mpg, 3.6reb, 2.1ast, 25.5pts @ .632ts%

C RIK SMITS 7’4 PER 36 -- 9.1reb, 1.7ast, 23.6pts @ .572ts%
PLAYOFFS -- 32.1mpg, 7.0reb, 2.0ast, 20.0pts @ .611ts%

PF  A.C. GREEN 6’9 PER 36 -- 9.0reb, 1.7ast, 12.3pts @.596ts% (1.7x3pa @ .339))
PLAYOFFS -- 36.8mpg, 12.0reb. 1.3ast. 12.8pts @.605ts% 

PG NATE MCMILLAN 6’5 PER 36 -- 5.3reb, 7.3ast, 2.9st, 7.3pts @ .496ts%(2.7x3pa@.342)
PLAYOFFS -- 28.1mpg, 4.5reb, 7.3ast, 2.5st, 4.8pts @ .398ts%


PG KENNY SMITH 6’3  PER 36 – 2.7reb, 5.7ast, 14.9pts @ .640ts% (5.9x3pa @ .429)
F/C  BUCK WILLIAMS 6-8 PER 36 – 9.9reb, 1.2ast, 11.3pts @ .545 ts%
F/G MARIO ELIE 6’5 PER 36 – 3.7reb, 3.6ast, 13.5pts @ .631ts% (3.8x3pa @.398)

F/G BILLY OWENS 6’8 PER 36 – 7.9reb, 3.9ast, 15.7pts @ .523ts%
C/F JAYSON WILLIAMS PER 36 -- 15.6reb, 1.2ast, 13.3pts @ .482ts%

First, let’s look at what SOBE will be doing:

Our offense is built around the triple threat of Charles Barkley, Reggie Miller, and Rik Smits. Barkley played the season at SF (next to AC Green in fact) for Phoenix and despite Kevin Johnson being out half the season with injury, led Phoenix to a .720 record and took champion Houston to 4-3 in the WC semis as Barkley (as usual) picked his game up another level in the playoffs. Reggie and Rik also took their team to the division championship (.634) with Reggie also picking it up in the playoffs as usual (and Smits playing Shaq well as they took the Eastern Finalists to 4-3 as well). As for AC Green, while he isn’t a stat guy, Pat Riley said he had the “greatest will to win of any player I have ever seen” which is pretty impressive when you think of all the greats that Riley has coached.

The ball will start in the hands of Nate McMillan; he’s not a scorer but he is long and quick and with the ball, they will have to cover him leaving single coverage on our stars. Even in Seattle, they often moved Payton to the SG with Nate at point for the same reason; and Nate will look for Barkley to work his man down. If Barkley is doubled, Reggie will be high behind him on the wing or Smits will have single coverage in the post. If they leave AC Green or Nate McMillan wide open, both are very capable of knocking down open jumpers with both even shooting well from the 3pt line this year! But the key is our three players who all score over 20pp36 on outstanding efficiency, it’s pick your poison.

Defensively, we have two guards who are long and quick. Nate was possibly the best defensive guard in the league this year and if facing a dominant 2, he will slide over with Reggie on the point man. Similarly, if we face an extremely active and high scoring 3, AC Green can cover with Barkley handling the 4 to keep Charles fresh on the offensive end. This was one of the key reasons we drafted these defensive specialists.

Our key reserves are Kenny Smith, Mario Elie, and Buck Williams. Smith and Elie are among the most efficient players in the league during the mid 90s as they both used the 3 point shot to average over .630 true shooting percentage! We will try to have the both in the game when Reggie is sitting to keep our spacing wide open for our big guys; similarly we will always try to have either Barkley, Smits, or both in the game for inside scoring. Smith and Elie provide more proven playoff performers to go with our starters as they were key players for the champion Rockets – Smith the starting PG and Elie the defensive specialist on the wing. Inside, we have Buck Williams who is still one of the most physical players in the league and one of the most respected. He will provide physical defense and do the dirty work.

We plan to use the Buck and Chuck lineup with Buck Williams (or AC Green), Barkley, Mario Elie , Reggie (or Kenny Smith), and Nate McMillan as one of our basic sets since I don't think Buck and AC together add much to each other's skill sets. This is one of our top offensive lineup so we bring it in when the opponents line up without a big inside scoring threat (ie, when Hakeem or Webber go to the bench) to give Smits a rest.

For short stretches where we need high energy, we will use Jayson Williams, the league’s leader in rebounds per minute, who also is a hard-working physical defender though raw and unpolished. Finally, Billy Owens is still the great athletic player with all the tools that was taken ahead of Mutombo and traded for Mitch Richmond (and more); he never became the dominant player they hoped but is a do it all guy who can play 3 positions with solid defense, playmaking, and scoring. He will provide depth in case of injury or foul trouble.



Where we significantly upgraded the power of both Phoenix and Indiana, two teams that were only a single game away from defeating the two NBA finalists; TMac has actually lost a lot of the effectiveness that allowed Hakeem to flourish in a system similar to the one Orlando has for Dwight Howard today. Houston gave Hakeem terrific efficiency from the outside to make teams pay for doubling him with their top 4 playoff players, Smith (.640ts%), Drexler (.577ts%), Elie (.631ts%) and Horry (.556ts%) all putting up between 3 and 6 three pointers per 36. This game Hakeem tons of room offensively and made them hyper efficient. Unfortunately for Tmac, we took two of them first .

Instead, he has rookie Jason Kidd shooting an ugly .477 (teammate Jim Jackson said opps frequently just left him open that year knowing he couldn’t shoot) and an aging Joe Dumars shooting .541 (13.9 per!) at guard. Good defensively but either too early or too late in their careers to provide much offense. He does have second year man Nick Van Exel off the bench (.544) who is streaky but can heat up. To make up for this he starts one dimensional shooter Dennis Scott at forward to give some shooting (.577) but most of the minutes will go to 2nd year gunner Jamal Mashburn (20 shots a game at only .526 ts% ) who also provides little defense or team play (Dallas was pretty dysfunctional that year). I do like classy Horace Grant at PF who should be a good match with Hakeem but overall, this team has a lot of young players who are gunning up a lot of bad shots.

Defensively, Horace Grant isn’t quick enough to keep up with Barkley out on the floor though he would do as good a job as anyone to stop the unstoppable if Barkley works into the low post. We will counter with Barkley on Grant at the other end too; Horace isn’t a dominant scorer though he is solid and we want Barkley’s rebounding prowess underneath with AC Green out chasing Scott and Mashburn (Mash likes to work inside too, though again, with his inefficiency and Green’s defense, it isn’t a major worry). Reggie will be on Jason Kidd with All-Defense team PG Nate McMillan guarding Dumars. McMillan will switch on to Van Exel with our starters in; when Kenny Smith is in the game, he will also guard the smaller quicker player. We also love the matchup with Elie against Scott when Barkley is on the bench; Mario is quicker than Scott, a lot better defensively, and can take Scott to the hole for his alley-oops fairly easily.

As for Hakeem, the key to Tmac’s team: Offensively, we will use Smits ability to catch and go to the basket to make Hakeem pay when he switches off to help against Barkley or our slashers. No one else on his team can handle the 7-4 Flying Dutchman. Defensively, Smits will have his hands full and all our players will be helping down when they are sliding into that region – here’s where we have a big advantage with our playoff tested veteran lineup against young players like Kidd, Van Exel, and Mashburn. Kidd in particular we will let take the 3 point shot he has not yet developed well (.272).

So, overall, SOBE has a big advantage in efficiency in our scorers; particularly our outside scorers. We have the size and offensive production from Rik Smits to keep Hakeem from roaming for blocks and both Barkley and Reggie are fully capable of carrying the team on their backs; for TMAC, he has to rely on some low efficiency scorers when Hakeem isn’t doing it all. We also have great playoff efficiency and experience, shooting even better as a team in the playoff by a healthy amount, with our big three of Barkley, Miller, and Smits all having excellent playoffs, as did rotation shooters Kenny Smith and Mario Elie. Hakeem will be a load and they have a lot of young players who want to run, but we have the better halfcourt game easily and that wins.





BlackIce has a very different set of issues. They have a big three offensively much like we do instead of being uni-dimensional. Of course, while Penny is a terrific player and comparable to Reggie, Webber is a major step down from Barkley and Eddie Jones is not comparable to Smits as a threat. Plus of course, any team that counts on Chris Webber and Eddie Jones in key pressure situations is doomed to disappointment.

Offensively, one of our forwards, Barkley or AC Green, will be matched up against a 2 guard since Majerle, Jones, and Dell Curry are all slender 6-4 to 6-6 jump shooters. Whichever of those players try to guard Barkley or Green, we are going to work our big guys low and take advantage of them in the post. Webber and Bradley are both shotblockers, especially Bradley, but our other bigs are efficient enough scorers to keep them honest; even AC Green (assuming they try Majerle on Barkley which would be logical with Webber’s dislike of low post banging) shot 1.5 threes a game for Phoenix at a decent rate (.339)…and that’s with Phoenix having the thoroughly mediocre Joe Kleine starting at center. Smits will keep Bradley honest and occupied or he will have a field day; Bradley may be the most posterized player in NBA history and has a history of leaving his man for blocks. All-Defense guard Nate McMillan will be on Penny of course with his size, quickness, and long arms . . . if Kenny Smith comes in with Penny in, we will use Kenny on the smaller Eddie Jones or Dell Curry. Barkley will have trouble staying with Dan Majerle, but the tradeoff of Barkley’s offense against Majerle for Majerle’s offense against Barkley is one we will take any day.

Again, we have a big advantage in efficiency and playoff performance.

Barkley 23.6pp36@.572ts% v. Webber 20.1@.521 (possibly the worst foul draw among high scoring bigs ever) with no playoff games (and a poor clutch history)

Miller 21.5@.620 v. Hardaway 20.0@.599 (with Shaq to draw doubles) and Penny’s scoring and efficiency slipped in the playoffs, unlike Reggie’s.

Smits 23.6@.572 v. Majerle 14.9@.555 nearly halved in the playoffs (8.2) and shooting .370.

Going on . . . they have their one advantage in Eddie Jones v. Nate McMillan but . . .

AC Green 12.3@.596 v. Bradley 11.8@.489 (an incredibly weak true shooting % for a guy 7’6!)

Buck Williams 11.3@.545 v. Polynice 12.5@.565 (no playoffs)

Mario Elie 13.5@.631 v. Dell Curry 19.6@.565 (less in playoffs)

Kenny Smith 14.9@.640 v. Mark Jackson 9.4@.493 (scored 9.9/32.1 in playoffs)

As the stats indicate, except for Eddie Jones and the more explosive (but less efficient) Dell Curry, SOBE has advantages all the way down the line. By a lot! And even more so if you look at clutch playoff numbers.

As Charles Barkley would say, “Ice Ice Baby, that sh*t was trash when it came out and it sure isn’t going to fly today.” And Kenny Smith adds his cliché, “Winners win.”

Unclever Team Name

Rotation

Gary Payton(36)/Kenny Anderson(12)
Mitch Richmond(36)/Lucious Harris(12)
Dominique Wilkins(30)/Chuck Person(8)/Derrick McKey(10)
Derrick McKey(24)/Popeye Jones(24)
Kevin Willis(36)/Sharone Wright(12)

Cellar has chosen to base the matchup on rebounding and individual matchups. What I have is much superior spacing, along with equal if not better rebounding and my efficiency may not look so good simply because my guys are shooting threes. Nique, McKey, and Willis can each hold their own while Payton and Richmond are better than their counterparts. Jim Jackson's stats are inflated because of a weird Dallas team. My bench is also superior, with rookie sensation Sharone Wright, the best offensive rebounder in the league in Popeye, Kenny Anderson as the best backup PG anyone can ask for, and Lucious Harris, a sparkplug who brings fire and intensity off the bench.

Sambone is not as challenging as Cellar. My backcourt advantage coupled with the fact that Laettner and Thorpe can't defend McKey stepping out makes my opponent's frontcourt much less intimidating. Grant Hill's rookie defense on the seasoned old man Nique will be fun to watch. Hill is a good defender now, but he did not have that reputation earlier on in his career. Also, my bench can provide the edge that takes this balanced team past the first round into the final four.

SERIES 1:

Series Avg. Minutes:
Karl Malone - 37
Dana Barros - 37
Detlef Schrempf - 35
Stacey Augmon - 31
Elden Campbell - 26
Kendall Gill - 24
Dale Davis - 22
Mahmoud Adbul-Rauf - 18
Jalen Rose - 10
Mark West - 0

Rotation:
C: Elden Campbell/Dale Davis/Mark West
PF: Karl Malone/Detlef Schrempf
F: Detlef Schrempf/Stacey Augmon/Jalen Rose
GF: Stacey Augmon/Kendall Gill/MAR
G: Dana Barros/Mahmoud Abdul Rauf

vs.

Starters:
C Dikembe Mutombo
PF Derrick Coleman
SF Larry Johnson
SG Clyde Drexler
PG Derek Harper

Bench:
PF/C Charles Oakley
SG Steve Kerr
PG Terrell Brandon
SF Walt Williams
PF/C Chris Gatling

PG: Dana Barros/Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf v. Derek Harper/Terrell Brandon

I bring a ton of firepower to my PG position with Barros and Abdul-Rauf, two dead-eye shooters and potent scorers. Both get hot, bury a bunch of buckets from distance, get their shot off quickly, can pass the rock, and have really nice handles.

Harper and Brandon will have their hands full defensively. Harper was 33yo this year and he is five years from his prime/last all-d selection. He's a bigger guard who doesn't match up well with Barros or Mahmoud. In 1995 the Knicks led the league in defensive efficiency at under 104. Harper's DRTG was 107, so the Knicks allowed more points with him on the floor. It's also worth noting that his PER has taken a dive to 12.6 after hovering around 19 during his prime. Terrell Brandon is one of my favorite offensive players and was really starting to come into his own this season. It's before he really blew up in '96, but he's still pretty good. He was never a good defensive player and won't be able to do much to stop either of my guys when he's in.

Expect Barros and Abdul-Rauf to do a lot of damage in this series.

SG: Stacey Augmon/Kendall Gill/MAR v. Clyde Drexler/Steve Kerr

I've extended Augmon's minutes at SG in this match up to his season average because Drexler and Johnson struggled against him. In Drexler's case, he averaged 14.5/8/4 on .357/.250 in 36.5 minutes against Augmon. Similarly, Drexler was off his season averages against Gill and the Sonics. Abdul-Rauf's limited time at SG will be matched with Kerr's time in the game. The SG match up for us is really about taking away our opponent's best offensive option, Clyde Drexler. It's also important to remember that Drexler was 32 in this season and a few years off his prime. He's still one of my favorite all-time players and a top player in this league, but he's not a #1 guy.

SF: Detlef Schrempf/Stacey Augmon/Jalen Rose v. Larry Johnson/Walt Williams

Like Drexler on Augmon/Gill, this is a really bad match up for Johnson. In six games against his opponents, Grandma-ma shot .441/.250 against Schrempf and .468/.300 against Augmon. OTOH, Schrempf shot .579/.750/.909 against Johnson and the Hornets. Johnson was a different player after his back injury. He improved his outside shot, but he was no longer a bull on the inside or a good defender. I expect Schrempf to really take LJ to task. I also expect Schrempf's length and underrated defense along with Augmon's smothering defense to really hamper Johnson's shooting. Jalen Rose will be matched with Walt Williams. If Wiliams is not playing in this series, and Kerr gets extended minutes at SG, giving Drexler more minutes at SF, Gill/Augmon will see more SF minutes and Rose/MAR will see more SG minutes.

PF: Karl Malone/Detlef Schrempf v. Derrick Coleman/Charles Oakley

Again, this is a really bad match up for Coleman. He averaged 12.5 on 33% shooting against the Jazz while Malone dominated just as he did against everybody. We have purposely chosen to go exclusively with Malone/Schrempf at PF to exploit Coleman. Charles Oakley is a nice defensive presence, but nobody's going to stop Malone and Oakley doesn't match up very well with a deadly shooter with good handles like Schrempf.

C: Elden Campbell/Dale Davis v. Dikembe Mutombo/Charles Oakley.

Mutombo is a fantastic defensive player. He's a great guy to anchor a defense and can help cover for a guy like Coleman. We are going with a bit more Campbell than Davis here because we feel that Campbell will be better at making Mutombo pay for helping on defense. Dikembe's not a great offensive player, so that should also allow Davis to help a bit on defense. Fortunately for us, our best offensive big man is a PF instead of a C.

Overall we think the match ups favor us in this series. We think that our most potent scorers, Malone, Schrempf, Barros, MAR, all have favorable match ups while Johnson and Drexler are matched up against guys who they didn't do to well against. For us, this series is all about the match ups.

Libertarians for life.

Hornacek(20)/Johnson(18)/Person(10)
Jackson(28)(Hornacek(12)/Person(8)
Pippen(38)/Jackson(10)
Radja(32)/Brown(16)
Divac(36)/Perdue(12)

vs. The Unclever in Every Ways

Gary Payton(36)/Kenny Anderson(12)
Mitch Richmond(36)/Lucious Harris(12)
Dominique Wilkins(30)/Chuck Person(8)/Derrick McKey(10)
Derrick McKey(24)/Popeye Jones(24)
Kevin Willis(36)/Sharone Wright(12)

Best of luck to Miller.

Center match-up: Rebounding comes out as about a draw considering minutes played for starters and back-ups. One note for consideration is that we're utilizing Divac's passing ability in the high post which will likely draw his defender away from the basket opening up more opportunities for other positions. The Unclevers are horribly inefficient from the C position with neither C posting better than 51% TS in the given season. Both of my Cs had a higher FG% than their TS%s, and when adding in TS, the gap only grows. On help defense, no one but Divac looks to be a factor logging over a block or a steal a game (Divac went for over 2 blocks and almost 1.5 steals.

PF Match-up: While Popeye is a fantastic rebounder at PF, McKey is epically awful for a "Power" forward. This is another draw in terms of rebounding unfortunately. None of these guys are ridiculously efficient from the field with both back-ups being pretty bad actually. The redeeming factor for me here is that McKey isn't spending nearly as much time at PF as Dino who's scoring at a higher rate and slightly lower efficiency. McKey is a solid help defender when he's on SFs, but he's not terribly effective in that regard from the 4 spot when he's near the basket. Help defense again goes to my team as Brown and Radja are both better than their counterparts.

SF Match-up: Again, rebounding is about a draw. Pippen beats out Wilkins by about as much as McKey beats Jackson out. Unfortunately for Miller, this is about where Nique's efficiency started dropping off. Meanwhile both of my guys are higher efficiency and much higher volume. Help defense, well, this shouldn't be hard for anyone to figure out with Scottie on one side.

SG Match-up: Rebounding is again about even. I was surprised to find Richmond's efficiency no higher than Jackson's. This is one of Harris' only seasons over 50% TS, but he did well to get to almost 55% himself. He's playing low minutes and isn't a volume scorer though. He shouldn't figure into this. On my side, we've been over Jackson, and Hornacek is ridiculous at 62%. In summary, he and Jackson should outpace Richmond on higher efficiency.

PG Match-up: The rebounding edge goes to Miller, though I was surprised to find that Payton wasn't actually a very good rebounder early on in his career, and the edge here isn't very large. In terms of efficiency, this is me by a pretty clear margin. Help defense, despite the fact that Johnson and Horncek are both pretty effective, you're not outplaying the Glove in that respect.

Offensive Scheme:
Plans--neutralize The Glove's effect, exploit the sub-par defender. Payton's defensive impact comes from two things: ball pressure and help defense. Ball pressure is going to be a non-factor for large stretches of the game where Hornacek and Person play off-ball, and he's going to have a tough time bothering a veteran like Avery (who will likely see most of his time on Anderson). Instead our offense will run through two very capable wings and our C. Pippen and Jackson both are point-wing sorts of players with Pippen obviously being much more effective, and Divac made a living off shredding defenses and hitting cutters. You'll see an occasional pick and roll involving Divac/Willis and any one of our three backcourt guys to probe for weaknesses in leaving a man open. Most often we're going to look to exploit Nique who was never a good defender, and by this point was on the decline athletically, only exacerbating the problem. He's going to see all his time on either Pippen or Jackson, our two best scorers.

Defensive Scheme:
Plan--limit Richmond and Payton, dare Willis and Nique to beat us, help and force TOs. We're going to not allow Richmond to shoot with Pippen on him. If he somehow gets past him, all our bigs are ready to help off and stop the drive, daring their bigs to shoot the jumpers. Payton's post game wasn't so refined at this point, but if he tries to take Hornacek/Person into the post, he's going to be met with a double, likely from Radja/Divac and forced to give up the ball. The same thing applies to him if he wants to penetrate. We feel like if we limit his wing's open looks and help freely from the other 3 positions we'll be in good shape. We'll also force turnovers everywhere with our active bigs, Payton's unrefined post game (at this stage) getting TOs off doubles, and Hornacek, Pippen and co. playing passing lanes.

Yeah, back to thesis writing.

Win.

ZAZA PACHULIA'S HOUSE OF PAIN

Shaq(36)/Miller(12)
Robinson(31)/Mason(17)
Ceballos(34)/Mason(14)
Sprewell(36)/Davis(12)
Skiles(32)/Murdock(16)

vs nba_addict's DEMOCRATS

Starters:
PG - John Stockon
SG - Sean Elliot
SF - Allan Houston
PF - Shawn Kemp
C - Vin Baker

Bench:
PG - Sherman Douglas
SG - BJ Armstrong
SF - Calbert Cheaney
PF - Brian Grant
C - Sean Rooks

Strategy:

Well right off the bat, we've got Vin Baker and Sean Rooks defending Shaq, so it's safe to say we've got a pretty big advantage there. Our game plan will be to pound it down low, force them to double, and kick out to Ceballos, Robinson, Skiles, Murdock, or Davis, all of whom are excellent 3 pt shooters. Sprewell should be able to take Houston or Elliot 1 on 1, Ceballos will get his points from offensive rebounds, penetration from Skiles and Sprewell, and kickouts from Shaq. Robinson will spread the floor and draw Kemp out of the paint, opening up space and also giving him plenty of open looks, and Skiles will just be asked to run the offense properly, hit open shots, and play his usual, scrappy hardnosed style against Stockton. Off the bench, Mason will come in to defend whoever's hot, be it Kemp or one of the wingmen, create plays for others as a secondary ball-handler, and just do whatever the team needs. Davis is only playing 12 minutes a game and hitting as many open 3s as he can in that time (which he does at almost 45% accuracy), Murdock will have the same responsibilities as Skiles, and Miller can spell Shaq and continue to exploit their lack of size and bulk down low.

Defensively, Baker isn't going to get anything close to the paint with Shaq covering him, and Kemp will have two great defenders in Mason and Robinson on him at all times. Houston is nothing more than a shooter who probably isn't good enough to start on a contending team right now, and Elliot, while solid, will also have a 1st team caliber defender in Sprewell smothering him. Stockton, with his offensive weapons neutralized, isn't good enough to carry a team with scoring, and his defensive prowess will be wasted on our 5th option in Skiles. Off addict's bench, neither Armstrong nor Douglas are game changers, and playing one of them at SG gives me a huge matchup advantage with Sprewell. Cheaney is another solid swingman with little potential to offer much more, and Brian Grant is a rookie who, while effective, won't be able to hang with Mason or Robinson.

Overall, addict has built a very young (seriously, many many players are in their 1st, 2nd or 3rd year, while I have a bit more veteran experience on my team), very small team with lots of offensive firepower, but playing Baker at C, Houston at SF, and Armstrong at SG, as well as having no elite swingman to help close games, will be his downfall against me.


vs Warspite's LONG RANGE BOMBERS

Strickland 35mpg/Wesley 10mpg
Sealy 22mpg/Rider 27mpg
Rice 34mpg/Robinson 14mpg
Vaught 36mpg/Howard 12mpg
Ewing 36mpg/Dudley 12mpg

Strategy: My internet cut out last night, so I realize that I'm over the time limit, but if it's ok with Warspite I'd like to post something quick here

Ewing is great, but he can't handle Shaq, and forcing him to double will open up lanes and shots for Robinson, Ceballos, Sprewell, and Skiles. None of his perimeter defenders are anything special, so Sprewell and Ceballos should have no trouble taking their defenders one on one. The rest of my offensive strategy will be similar to the strategy against the Democrats, as neither of their teams have elite perimeter defenders to slow down Spree. Dudley, Vaught, and Howard are all pretty slender and likely too small to guard Shaq, so when Ewing is out of the game is when we`ll really feast on all the double and triple teams he`ll have to send. Defensively, we`ll change it up and put Sprewell on Strickland to try and limit penetration. Latrell is quick and strong enough to stay in front of him and make sure he doesn`t carve up our defense, and Sealy isn`t good enough to make us pay with Skiles on him. We`ll switch back to Skiles on Strickland when Rider comes in, and have Sprewell try and pressure him to shoot his team out of the game. Shaq can handle Ewing one on one, and both Robinson and Mason are good enough defenders to slow down Vaught. Howard and Glen Robinson are both good scorers, but they`re only playing 26 minutes combined, which isn`t enough time for them to really make an impact. I`m also curious to see how young guys like Howard and Robinson, who got all the minutes and shots they wanted on their respective teams, react to riding the pine.

Warspites pool


Vs Addict

1. My team controls the boards (Ewing 11rpg, Vaught 9rpg, Dudley 9rpg) Addicts #2,#3 rebounders have lower RB% than my top 4 rebounders.
2. My team has better post scoring (Ewing 23ppg, Robinson 21ppg, Vaught 17ppg)
3. My team is much bigger 6'3" 6'8" 6'8" 6'9" 7'0" vs 6'1" 6'5" 6'7" 6"10 6'10"
4. My team has better shooters (Glen Rice, Rider)
5. My team plays better defense My opponets players are playing out of position with there Nellie style
6. My team has the better bench Rider and Robinson are both elite scorers. Rider is #2in ppg for SGs Robinson

This is such a mismatch that even Penbeast might give me a vote.

Now if you want more details let me start by saying Addict doesnt have a C and I have prime Ewing. I have Strickland in his career yr (18ppg 9apg) vs Stockton none of his wing players play any defense. My 6th, 7th, 8th man would start for addicts team and my backup C could start for him too. I will say that Addicts team could be realy tough in todays no hand check no defense rules. However in 1995 there lack of size, physical strength and ability to drive the basketball is a serious roadblock


Vs the poopers

The strategy is to guard Shaq with depth Ewing, Vaught, Howard, Dudley form a 4 man rotation that slows down Shaq. We attack Skiles with Strickland and cause the defense to collaspe and find shooters, or dump offs to bigs who can score. The Bombers enjoy the reb adv and look to control the boards and get some easy putbacks. We also have Rider and Robinson on the bench and they have green lights when they come in. We will force Cliffy and Spree to beat us shooting 20fters and making Shaq work on both ends of the court.

The Boned Samuels

PG: M.Blaylock (33), E.Perry (15), S.Smith
SG: H.Hawkins (25), B.Phills (18), S.Smith (5)
SF: G.Hill (35), S.Smith (13)
PF: C.Laettner (25), O.Thorpe (23)
C: A.Mourning (35), Laettner (5), Muresan (8)

Offense
I personally think this is a team that fits in very well with each other. Zo was a BEAST in the post and Grant Hill (pre injuries) was looked at as a guy that could do it all. He was a point forward with great playmaking ability and offensive skills that could dominate games. Both my guards shot 3’s very well (Mookie 2nd most 3’s in the league and Hersey shot 44%) and Laettner had a very good jumper (and great passing BIG) and can draw his man away for the post allowing Zo more room to work.

I think this team would work very well in the triangle offense with Grant handling the ball a lot and using both Mookie and Hersey as 3 point shooters (plus S.Smith, Perry and even Phills all shot 3’s well). So Grant could either take his man, feed Zo in the post, hit Laettner for a mid range jumper or kick it to one of the 3 point shooters he will be surrounded by.

My bench is basically filled with solid guys that would also work well together. Elliot is a great energy spark plug off the bench the shot well and did a great job leading the Suns when KJ was out. S.Smith was a solid scorer who had a great handle (the season prior Miami used him at PG a lot) and passed very well for a wing. Phills, even though he was known as a defensive stopper, was solid on offense as well. Big Otis is my veteran presence who can teach my kids what winning is like. Otis played half the season as a starter for Houston then the 2nd half as a 6th man in Portland (was traded for Drexler). He was a great rebounder and defender who played great during the Championship season last year. Muresan had a good touch for a GIANT but despite his 56% shooting from the field, most of his damage will come on the offensive glass.

Defense

Zo, Grant and Mookie were all great defenders, plus Hawkins was above average. Our team will take a lot of pride in defense and should do pretty well limiting the opposition. Phills, our stopper, will play important minutes and always be guarding the other team’s best wing player. I do not think many wings will have a great series against my wing defenders (Hill, Phills, Hawkins, and Smith could all D up). Both of our PG’s were great defenders (Mookie was 1st team all defensive and Elliot was 6th in the league in steals while only logging 24 mpg). Laettner is really my only weaker defender (very good team defender) but Thorpe was excellent so no worries there either. Zo was still a pup and was still a few season away from his back to back DPOY awards, but he was a top notch defensive center his entire career (5th in blocks and 9th in defensive reb in 95) and BIG Gheorghe will not be pushed around by anyone. I personally think this team is the top defensive team in this game.


MATCH-UP #1
vs. The Unclever in Every Ways

Gary Payton(36)/Kenny Anderson(12)
Mitch Richmond(36)/Lucious Harris(12)
Dominique Wilkins(30)/Chuck Person(8)/Derrick McKey(10)
Derrick McKey(24)/Popeye Jones(24)
Kevin Willis(36)/Sharone Wright(12)

PG’s: GP/KA against Mookie/Socks:
This should be a pretty fun matchup. The 2 starters are the 2 best 2 way PG’s in the league. Payton was great and got all the pub, but Mookie was no slouch. Mookie was a much better 3 point shooter (Gp made less then 1 a game, shooting 30%, compaired to Mookie’s 2.5 makes at 36%) had more assists, more rebounds, better from the line, same steals and lss turnovers. GP got almost all of his baskets on menitration, something that I don’t see him having much success doing in this series.

KA was a huge talent, but how would his ego fit as a backup only getting 12 min a game?

SG’s: Mitch/ Lucious against HH/ Phills/ Smitty
Richmond was a STUD and in my opinion the guy that will be able to do the most damage against me. He will be guarded by very good defenders. Bobby Phills was becoming a great stopper and HH was very underrated solid defender. Both these guys will make Mitch work.

SF’s: Old Man Nique/C.Person/McKey against GHill/Smitty
The 35 year old former “Human Highlight Film”(best nickname ever) had a nice season but was a shell of himself and will struggle massively against Rookie of the Year Grant Hill. In his 13th season Nique basically had become a chucker, only looking for his. He did have his best 3 point shooting season of his HOF career, .388% (1.5 makes a game). He shot a career low .424 from the field along with basically a career low 17.8 ppg (17.2 as a rookie 12 years ago) with 5.2 reb, 2.2 asst, .8 steals, .2 blocks and 2.2 TO’s.

The healthy 23 year old Grant Hill broke on the scene scoring 19.9 ppg, 6.4 reb, 5 assts, 1.8 steals, .9 blocks all as a rookie wing shooting .477% from the field. He will have his way scoring and creating in this series.

PF’s: McKey/Popeye vs Laettner/Thorpe
McKey was a great defender (weak on the glass) while Popeye was a great offensive rebounder, but really brought nothing else to the floor. Both Laettner and Thorpe had great range for a BIG and both could pass very well as well as hit the glass. Both my guys should have nice series and don’t expect much of anything from my opponent

C’s: Willis/Wright vs Zo/Laettner/My Giant
Willis had a nice season and is a solid player, but he will have his hands full in this matchup. Zo was a BEAST, and should have a massive series. He was more efficient and a much better player on both ends of the court.

I think I have a great matchup here. My overall team defensive should limit (if not shut down) my opponent. Mitch will get his (not easily) and we are fine and know he can not win by himself. GP faces the one PG that matches up well against him and having Zo in the paint will limit GP’s bread and butter and force him to shoot jumpers which he did not due well. My opponent really does not have an answer for Zo or Hill and both should play well above their averages. I simply do not think the unclever’s can score enough points to win this matchup


MATCH-UP #2
Vs The Libertarians for life

Hornacek(20)/Johnson(18)/Person(10)
Jackson(28)/Hornacek(12)/Person(8)
Pippen(38)/Jackson(10)
Radja(32)/Brown(16)
Divac(36)/Perdue(12)

PG’s: Hornacek/Avery/Person vs Mookie/Socks
Hornacek was a solid shooter and had a decent hand (very good passer as a SG) so I guess him at the point (especially with Pippen on the team) isn’t that much of a stretch. Avery was a solid vet but had no range at all, and I do not believe Wesley (even as a rook) ever played PG. I guess my opponent is planning on using Horny and Wesley off the ball as shooters, lucky for me I have 2 of the best PG’s at playing the passing lanes and getting steals.

SG’s: JJ/Horny/Wesley vs Hawkins/Phills/Smitty
Jimmy was a solid scorer in that crazy uptempo run and gun no defense mavs scheme, He will be guarded by some great defenders in Hawkins/Phills /Smitty. Jimmy was a good enough scorer (and took enough shots) that I am sure he will score some points if allowed to chuck as much as he did for Dallas, but he will not make a big difference in this matchup

SF’s: Pippen/Jackson vs G.Hill/Smitty
This will be a great match-up. Pippen had one of his best career offensive seasons in 95 (his 48% from the field and 34.5% from a shortened 3pt line) were pretty solid. He was a very good point forward, scorer and rebounder. GHill is a perfect cloan of Pippen when he entered the league so this head to head matchup should be very enjoyable.

Steve Smith vs JJ backup matchup should be nice to watch as well since both were pretty good scorers. Smitty had a better handle, was a better defender, and was more of a sniper from down town the Jackson who was basically a volume shooter that scored a lot in a crazy tempoed offense.

PF’s: Dino/Brown vs Laettner/Thorpe
I think I have a pretty nice advantage in this matchup. Laettner’s range and mobility for a BIG should give Dino fits here. Laettner should play very well in this series. I also think the young PJ Brown will struggle against the veteran Thorpe. I do not think either Dino or PJ will do much against my PF’s

C’s: Vlade/Purdue vs Zo/Laettner/Muresan
Vlad was a very under rated C and was a great passer, but he will have a very difficult time trying to stop Zo. I am sure Vlade will try to play facing the basket since he will not have any luck trying to back Zo down. I am pretty positive that a young Zo will have enough mobility to play away from the basket against Vlade.

I think my opponent built a pretty solid team that fits in well together, but I just think my TEAM is better at almost all aspects of the game. I think not having a play making PG or a scoring PF will hurt him in this series. Yes Pippen and Vlade are great playmakers, but both were basically career 2nd options and played off of another superstar. I playmaker at the point or a better scoring BIG would have really improved their team (in my opinion). I think I just have too much balance and spacing to go with the best defenve team in the entire game.

Miller4ever wrote:Unclever Team Name

Cellar has chosen to base the matchup on rebounding and individual matchups. What I have is much superior spacing, along with equal if not better rebounding and my efficiency may not look so good simply because my guys are shooting threes. Nique, McKey, and Willis can each hold their own while Payton and Richmond are better than their counterparts. Jim Jackson's stats are inflated because of a weird Dallas team. My bench is also superior, with rookie sensation Sharone Wright, the best offensive rebounder in the league in Popeye, Kenny Anderson as the best backup PG anyone can ask for, and Lucious Harris, a sparkplug who brings fire and intensity off the bench.

...Que?
The entire idea of a true shooting percentage is that it takes into account 3pt FG%. Ray Allen takes an absurd number of 3s in his prime, yet his TS wasn't ever below 55% specifically for that reason. Your spacing is not superior. Your 3pt shooting may be, but you've got to respect my spacing just as much. Especially at the big positions with guys like Divac and to a lesser extent, Radja and Brown out there. Jim Jackson's stat's are inflated in comparison to other years because he took more shots. It's hard to fault someone for taking more shots AND scoring on better efficiency though, no? I'm also not entirely sure how you can suggest Nique can hold his own against his counterpart (Scottie Pippen. In his prime, while Nique isn't), but Jim Jackson can't hold his own against Richmond.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01&y2=1995

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01&y4=1995

^Considering one is being guarded by Scottie Pippen, while the other is being watched intermittently by Dominique Wilkins, you're way off base. I can only hope people realize that fact.

matchup v. penbeast0. We're gonna keep this short since I'll be rather busy tomorrow, and have to do two of these writeups. I wish penbeast the best of luck, as always he's built another fantastic team that poses match-up problems. May the best team win, which my team fully intends to do so.

Hakeem v. Smits (1994-1995) - 2 GAMES


Honestly, that's enough said. But yes, notice the 5.5 fouls per game, and no one on the bench taller than 6'8, only Jayson Williams being hardly played at 6"9. In those two games, Smits took 10.5 shots, and still shot 33%.

Barkley Defensive/Offensive Game-Plan

Barkley had an overall very good series against Grant, but for the entire finals series in 93, he in fact shot 47% from the floor. On the flip side, Horace played quite well, averaging 11/10 on over 50% from the floor, including games such as:



He should be a factor offensively in this series as well.

Not to mention, with Hakeem on the weakside, I'd expect a "weaker," Barkley to produce less. In fact, in the series against the Rockets, with a defender at PF nowhere near the caliber of Grant, Barkley had games in which he scored only 5 points on 0-10 shooting, 17 points on 8-22 shooting and an 18 point game on 7-16 from the floor. That doesn't even include the fact he had another game in which he shot under 50% from the floor.

For the series, he shot .462 from the field.

Barkley will get his, but we're quite comfortable with the front-court defense that we boast against both of their offensive big man. And aside from Barkley, there's no one really we fear on the drive, as both the PG and PF were more defensive role players, and Reggie was a pure perimeter player.

Dumars Matchup vs. Miller

From years 1994 to 1995



Would definitely say Dumars had an effect on Reggie's game, and there's not many better we can put on Reggie to chase him around screens. If we can limit penbeast's big three in any sort of way (Smits, Barkley, and Miller), then A.C. Green and McMillan are not enough offensive firepower to outmatch the dominance of Hakeem and the supporting cast assembled.

And honestly, I'm not too worried about Joe Dumars lack of three point percentage this season (not amount of makes), because every time Dumars has had a PG next to him, he's been an elite three point shooter. In fact, excluding this season, he's a career 39% shooter from distance. The difference between all these seasons, and this single one? The fact he was forced into a PG's role with Isiah's retirement. It's no coincidence when Lindsey Hunter became a 37 MPG player that Dumars returned to a 43% shooter from behind the arc.

Leave Dumars open, and that goes for any series, and he'll make the opponent pay.

The Jason Kidd Factor

I've noticed Miller will be guarding Kidd, due to his lack of shooting. I have a few questions, will he be on Van Exel too, considering he's getting MORE minutes than Kidd? But regardless Miller will be exploited defensively.

There's a reason why Kidd shared ROY honors with Grant Hill, who had a far more statistically pleasing season. He was still an elite G rebounder, and one of the best play-makers and passers even as a rookie. In the 34 games after the all-star break, he averaged 15/5/8 on 40/30. He's never been a particularly efficient shooter, what made him great, was his all rounded impact on the game. That impact led the largest turnaround of this particular season, and a 13th place finish in MVP voting. With the slower footed Miller on him, Kidd will be able to attack the defense, find Hakeem in the paint, or Scott/Dumars for the jumper.

And when Van Exel comes in, he'll fully exploit Reggie's lack of defense. No way around that.


Conclusion

Overall, penbeast's team consists of three main offensive options. We feel we have the perfect options to limit all three of Smits, Barkley, and Reggie, while just having too much offensive firepower and matchups we can take advantage of that will ultimately lead us to victory (ex. Hakeem v. Smits). Best of luck penbeast.


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matchup v. BlackIce

Man, this is becoming like the Lakers/C's rivalry in the 80's, seemingly facing off every time. And everytime, you knew it was going to be a good one, I expect nothing different in this one. Once again BI, you've built a terrific team with a very traditional build. May the best team win, which I fully intend to do so.

Similar to the Hakeem v. Smits battle, Hakeem will dominate this matchup. His stats aren't as pretty actually, roughly 22/11, but he still shoots 53ish% from the floor. In an playoff elevated situation, Bradley known for being soft on both offense and defense, Hakeem will have his way.

From years 94 to 95, Grant has actually got the better of Webber.



Horace on the other hand:


So our frontcourt edge is overhelming.

Hardaway will get his, but Kidd's size and Dumars defensive ability will make him work. Regardless, we feel if we can limit Webber, BI's team as well doesn't have the firepower to outweigh the advantages we possess. Overall, because of Hakeem, defensively, and offensively we have the edge.

I'll add more later, but for now, I'll just post. Best of luck BI.

Democrats

vs Poopdamoop - ZaZa Pachulia's House of Pain

PG - John Stockton 35 / Sherman Douglas 13
SG - Sean Elliot 35 / BJ Armstrong 13
SF - Allan Houston 28 / Calbert Cheaney 20
PF - Shawn Kemp 33 / Brian Grant 15
C - Vin Baker 38 / Sean Rooks 10

vs

PG - Skiles /Murdock
SG - Sprewell / Davis
SF - Ceballos /Mason
PF - Robinson /Mason
C - Shaq /Miller or Williams

Offense:
We run with our strength which is to use pick and roll with Stockton and Kemp. Robinson will not be able guard Kemp nor Skills containing John Stockton. Shaq's defensive woes has always been guarding pick and rolls and Shaq wont be able to contain Stockton. We have 3pt shooters in our wing to spread the floor and force Shaq to defend pick and roll (Elliot 40.8% on 4.1 attempts per game; Houston 42.4% on 4.9 attempts per game; Stockton 44.9%, Armstrong 42.7%).

Defense:
Shaq is having a stellar rookie season but he is still a rookie. poopdamoop cannot maximize Shaq's strength as he only have Scott Brooks as the lone realiable 3pt shooter in his starting line-up (Ceballos 39% at 2.5 attempts and Sprewell 27% are average to below average 3pt shooters). We can easily send double/tripple teams on Shaq if they dump the ball to him.

Team Chemistry:
We believe we have a very good team chemistry with John Stockton as our team leader. poopdamoop's team are bunch of scorers who need the ball in their hands to be effective.


vs Warspite Long Range Bombers

PG - John Stockton 35 / Sherman Douglas 13
SG - Sean Elliot 35 / BJ Armstrong 13
SF - Allan Houston 28 / Calbert Cheaney 20
PF - Shawn Kemp 33 / Brian Grant 15
C - Vin Baker 38 / Sean Rooks 10

vs.

Strickland 35mpg/Wesley 10mpg
Sealy 22mpg/Rider 27mpg
Rice 34mpg/Robinson 14mpg
Vaught 36mpg/Howard 12mpg
Ewing 36mpg/Dudley 12mpg

Overall:
We think this is going to be a walk in the park for us. Height doenst necessarily equate to wins and dominance in defense. Basketball after all is all about talent and skills. Outside of Ewing and Strickland, warspite's perimeter player have horrendous defensive ratings (Malik Sealy 112; Glen Rice 111; Vaught 110; Rider 116; Robinson 111; ). Sealy and Rice are just average rebounders "at best" in thier respective position, 3.9 and 4.6 respectively. We have better shooters in any facets you look at it - Elliot 40.8% on 4.1 attempts per game; Houston 42.4% on 4.9 attempts per game; Stockton 44.9%, Armstrong 42.7%

Lastly, JR Rider, Juwan Howard and Glenn Rice are producing numbers for losing efforts. Thier team are either bottom feeders and one of the worst. Rider and Howard are playing for 21 win teams and Glenn Rice in 32 win team where he is the first option.

Offense:
We will run with our conventional weapon which is pick and roll with Stockton and Kemp. Kemp is used to play with GP which is actually a scoring point guard and has not yet tasted how to play with a true pass first point guard in Stockton. We have potent 3pt shooters who can space the floor.

Defense:
Ewing will get his share of points but we can afford sending doubt and tripple teams to negate his game. We have potent perimeter defenders to negate thier wing scorers.

Team Chemistry:
We believe we have a very good team chemistry with John Stockton as our team leader. Warspits's team are bunch of scorers who cannot play defense except for one or two and most need the ball in their hands and would often look for their shots first.

PG Rod Strickland 18.9ppg 8.8apg 3.8rpg 1.8spg .466 .745
SG Malik Sealy 13.0ppg 1.8apg 3.6rpg 1.2spg .435 .780
SF Glen Rice 22.3ppg 2.3apg 4.8rpg 1.4spg .475 .855
PF Loy Vaught 17.5ppg 9.7rpg 1.7apg 1.1spg .514 .710
C Pat Ewing 22.3ppg 11.0rpg 2.7apg 2.0bpg .503 .750

PG David Wesley 7.4ppg 5.2apg .409 .755
SG Jr Rider 20.9ppg 3.3apg 3.4rpg .447 .817
SF Glen Robinson 21.9ppg 6.4rpg .451 .796
PF Juwan Howard 17.0ppg 8.4rpg .489 .664
C Chris Dudley 5.3ppg 9.3rpg .406 .464

TMACFORMVP wrote:matchup v. penbeast0. We're gonna keep this short since I'll be rather busy tomorrow, and have to do two of these writeups. I wish penbeast the best of luck, as always he's built another fantastic team that poses match-up problems. May the best team win, which my team fully intends to do so.

Hakeem v. Smits (1994-1995) - 2 GAMES

Code: Select all

Olajuwon: 35.0 PPG, 15.5 RPG, 4.0 APG, 6.5 BPG, 1.5 SPG on .541 FG%
Smits: 7.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.5 BPG, 0.5 SPG, 5.5 FOULS on .333 FG%

Honestly, that's enough said. But yes, notice the 5.5 fouls per game, and no one on the bench taller than 6'8, only Jayson Williams being hardly played at 6"9. In those two games, Smits took 10.5 shots, and still shot 33%.

The biggest problem with statistical analysis in these things is lack of sample size. TWO GAMES. Notice I didn't even post playoff numbers for players with one series despite things like Buck Williams shooting .600 because with that small a sample size, the error rate is ridiculous. Everyone can have one hot or one bad game; I remember LaBradford Smith outplaying Michael Jordan in Washington . . . Then he made the mistake of talking about it and you can guess what happened every game thereafter.

Also, Hakeem v. Smits assumes Hakeem stays on Rick and ignores Barkley and AC Green posting up Grant and badly outclassed Dennis Scott. The Pacer forwards were Dale Davis and Derrick McKey both of whom are defensive specialists so Hakeem could get help with Smits and didn't have to help others. Here, if he does that, Barkley and Reggie kill them . . . and we are good with that!

Barkley Defensive/Offensive Game-Plan

Barkley had an overall very good series against Grant, but for the entire finals series in 93, he in fact shot 47% from the floor. On the flip side, Horace played quite well, averaging 11/10 on over 50% from the floor, including games such as:

Code: Select all

Game Two: 24 points, 8 rebounds on 10-13 shooting.
Game Three: 13 points, 17 rebounds on 6-11 shooting.
Game Four: 17 points, 16 rebounds on 7-11 shooting.

He should be a factor offensively in this series as well.

Not to mention, with Hakeem on the weakside, I'd expect a "weaker," Barkley to produce less. In fact, in the series against the Rockets, with a defender at PF nowhere near the caliber of Grant, Barkley had games in which he scored only 5 points on 0-10 shooting, 17 points on 8-22 shooting and an 18 point game on 7-16 from the floor. That doesn't even include the fact he had another game in which he shot under 50% from the floor.

For the series, he shot .462 from the field.

Barkley will get his, but we're quite comfortable with the front-court defense that we boast against both of their offensive big man. And aside from Barkley, there's no one really we fear on the drive, as both the PG and PF were more defensive role players, and Reggie was a pure perimeter player.

I don't think Tmac read my (admittedly long) writeup that well. In fact, Smits is on the strongside with Green and McMillan; Barkley is on the weakside facing Grant in isolation in our basic set. We are hoping Hakeem comes over to help on the weakside as Smits actually scores more and at a higher percentage than any other big in the series . . . including Hakeem. Again, context is important too. We gave Barkley other scoring threats to play off (his playmaking is terrific at over 4 assists to barely 2 turnovers); with the Suns he was playing with Joe Kleine at center -- the guy who was considered not quite up to the level of Jon Koncak, that Joe Kleine.It's like assuming little difference between having a healthy Yao Ming at center and having DeSagana Diop.

Dumars Matchup vs. Miller

From years 1994 to 1995

Code: Select all

Game #1: 8 points on 3-8 from the floor.
Game #2: 9 points on 3-9 from the floor.
Game #3: 14 points on 5-12 from the floor.
Game #4: 16 points on 6-15 from the floor.
Game #5: 18 points on 5-10 from the floor.
Game #6: 31 points on 10-15 from the floor.
Game #7: 14 points on 3-12 from the floor.

15.1 PPG on .432 from the field.

Would definitely say Dumars had an effect on Reggie's game, and there's not many better we can put on Reggie to chase him around screens. If we can limit penbeast's big three in any sort of way (Smits, Barkley, and Miller), then A.C. Green and McMillan are not enough offensive firepower to outmatch the dominance of Hakeem and the supporting cast assembled.

And honestly, I'm not too worried about Joe Dumars lack of three point percentage this season (not amount of makes), because every time Dumars has had a PG next to him, he's been an elite three point shooter. In fact, excluding this season, he's a career 39% shooter from distance. The difference between all these seasons, and this single one? The fact he was forced into a PG's role with Isiah's retirement. It's no coincidence when Lindsey Hunter became a 37 MPG player that Dumars returned to a 43% shooter from behind the arc.

Leave Dumars open, and that goes for any series, and he'll make the opponent pay.

Yes, if you can limit LA's big 3 this year of Kobe, Pau, and Ron-Ron and ignore the fact that you are playing a weak defenseive SF on Bynum and the contribution of Lamar Odom off the bench (for us, Kenny Smith, Mario Elie, and Buck Williams which is not negligible), then you probably don't have to worry about Derek Fisher and Bynum beating you. That's why we have three major offensive threats (plus Green defended by Dennis Scott who had trouble with normal 3's taking him inside).

Well, at least he got the year right this time instead of reaching back to 1993 for his numbers. Of course, as he said himself, Dumars was playing PG most of the time so would have been guarding Mark Jackson but details. And Dumars was not himself in 1995, it was one of his worst years -- health, age, etc. he isn't the Dumars of his great years.

The Jason Kidd Factor

I've noticed Miller will be guarding Kidd, due to his lack of shooting. I have a few questions, will he be on Van Exel too, considering he's getting MORE minutes than Kidd? But regardless Miller will be exploited defensively.

There's a reason why Kidd shared ROY honors with Grant Hill, who had a far more statistically pleasing season. He was still an elite G rebounder, and one of the best play-makers and passers even as a rookie. In the 34 games after the all-star break, he averaged 15/5/8 on 40/30. He's never been a particularly efficient shooter, what made him great, was his all rounded impact on the game. That impact led the largest turnaround of this particular season, and a 13th place finish in MVP voting. With the slower footed Miller on him, Kidd will be able to attack the defense, find Hakeem in the paint, or Scott/Dumars for the jumper.

And when Van Exel comes in, he'll fully exploit Reggie's lack of defense. No way around that.

The more Kidd shoots the better. Since 1970, only one player has been a worse shooter than Jason Kidd (min 750 shots); and he and his supporters all boast that he's improved considerably since his rookie year when teams played him almost solely to pass.

And, in my writeup, it was clear that McMillan shifts over to Van Excel when facing Nick and either of TMac's starting guards; however Kenny Smith will be playing the smaller, quicker of TMac's guards (Van Excel, then Dumars) when in with either of ours. That may be where he got confused. Of course even Nick the Quick is a streaky, not very high percentage shooter. Like so many of TMac's players, he looks good until you look at efficiency.

Conclusion

Overall, penbeast's team consists of three main offensive options. We feel we have the perfect options to limit all three of Smits, Barkley, and Reggie, while just having too much offensive firepower and matchups we can take advantage of that will ultimately lead us to victory (ex. Hakeem v. Smits). Best of luck penbeast.

I do notice that when he talks about his "offensive firepower" which basically consists of Hakeem and relying on Nick Van Exel, he avoids mentioning our bench scoring from Kenny Smith (.640 ts%!) and Mario Elie (.631ts%!) two tremendous long range threats who helped Hakeem get his two rings with multiple years among the league's most efficient. We have A LOT more offensive skills than Tmac's team and his young gunners who are offensively minded don't shoot it very well. Basically, Hakeem has to outplay Barkley AND Miller AND Smits for Tmac to take this and, like Hakeem, our big guys step it up in the postseason with Chuck and Reggie being among the all-time playoff greatest. We can deal with Hakeem having a great series; we expect it; there just isn't enough around him. Should be fun though.



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PG: Tim Hardaway (36 minutes)/John Starks (12 minutes)
SG: Nick Anderson (30 minutes)/John Starks (18 minutes)
SF: Toni Kukoc (32 minutes)/ Robert Horry (16 minutes)
PF: Tyrone Hill (35 minutes)/ Robert Horry (10 minutes)/ Roy Tarpley (3 minutes)
C: David Robinson (38 minutes)/Roy Tarpley (10 minutes)

Series 1: Sabas Revenge

Series Avg. Minutes:
Karl Malone - 37
Dana Barros - 37
Detlef Schrempf - 35
Stacey Augmon - 31
Elden Campbell - 26
Kendall Gill - 24
Dale Davis - 22
Mahmoud Adbul-Rauf - 18
Jalen Rose - 10
Mark West - 0

Opposing rotation:

Rotation:
C: Elden Campbell/Dale Davis/Mark West
PF: Karl Malone/Detlef Schrempf
F: Detlef Schrempf/Stacey Augmon/Jalen Rose
GF: Stacey Augmon/Kendall Gill/MAR
G: Dana Barros/Mahmoud Abdul Rauf

Offensively: Our offense centers around two of the best offensive players at their respective positions in David Robinson and Tim Hardaway. David Robinson's raw ability speaks for itself. He earned the league MVP and lead the league in player efficiency this season, and it was hardly an outlier. Though nowadays somewhat more renowned for playing some of the best defense of the era, he was also a dominant scorer, terrific in the high post and with an extremely reliable jump shot. And he did much of the magic throughout his career with a mediocre supporting cast, and during the prime of his career never played with a point guard/creator anywhere near the level of Tim Hardaway. Though critics dimissed his Warrior stats (20/9 with a TS% of 55%) as being the product of the heightened pace Golden State employed in this era, he shocked critics by continuing this output when moving to Miami a year later. Two years from this season he even finished 4th in the MVP voting. His partnership with the agile, great rebounding, terrific shooting/high post ability of David Robinson should prove to be even more dynamic and terrifying combination than the one he found with Zo, a combination which we feel is among the best 1-2 punches in this entire league. Furthermore, Elden Campbell, though not without defensive capabilities, struggled with consistent motivation throughout his career. As such, the job of defending the likes of David Robinson for an entire series (with his athleticism and overall skill) may prove to be too daunting a task, and he could see himself losing possessions and getting into early foul trouble. Dale Davis is pre-peak at this stage in his career, and while he may do a better job against D-Rob than Campbell, he still isn't an ideal option, and will not face him much of the time.

Flanking this dynamic duo is a crew of championship caliber role players. Tim Hardaway has the option to score it himself, drop it off to his franchise center, lay it inside to the efficient Tyrone Hill (13 ppg on great % for the slowest team in the league), or kick it out to any number of shooters, most notably Nick Anderson, John Starks, and Robert Horry. The icing on the cake is the tall and versatile Toni Kukoc, a premier secondary option for the team. Our primary playmaker's job is further made easier by the fact that he's guarded by the small and defensively weak Dana Barros. Overall, their best defenders starting are Stacey Augmon and Karl Malone, both guarding secondary options in our offense. Our spacing is also beyond reproach, as Anderson, Hardaway, Starks, and Horry all drained 3's at a reasonable clip and our offense is anchored by a big man with a terrific midrange game. We feel our offense should be able to run at near peak efficiency against these opponents.

Defensively: Obviously, the primary concern here is Karl Malone. The staunchly defensive Hill seemed to play reasonably well against him defensively in the selected years, albeit in a limited sample size. Unfortunately, given the length of Hill's peak relative to that of ironman Malone's, its a difficult matchup to assess. Luckily, we have a dominant and incredibly mobile help defender next to Tyrone Hill down low, and he has offensively limited counterparts. The help defense against Malone in the post should help limit Karl to a degree, as will the lack of a great pick and roll point guard for the opposition.

Barros and Shrempf also represent interesting options for Sabas's team. Though Barros's outlier season is compelling to look at, it should be noted that the impressive volume numbers were achieved on a team that had nearly no other viable options to speak of, and while impressive the numbers were never even approached again in Barros's short career. We expect Barros to nonetheless be rather productive, but we fully expect Hardaway to do far more damage against him than vice versa. Shrempf is primarily compelling because of his size, but this advantage is almost negated since our team starts the 6'10'' Toni Kukoc and 6'9'' Robert Horry. Shrempf's output that season is impressive and should give Sabas the edge in this particular matchup, but we feel we more than make up for this on the other areas of the court. Pesky defenders like Starks and Horry (who in addition to being clutch was in fact a very well rounded player in his earlier years) coming off the bench further helps our cause.

Other: We believe our bench also outmatches our opponent. Starks brings defense, energy, explosiveness, and some playmaking ability to our bench, and has proven he can thrive as a 6th man (winning the 6MOY award only two seasons later). Robert Horry was the starting small forward for the world champions and brings defense, shooting ability, and clutchness (even then known for stepping up his game in big ways when it counts) to the table. Our backup center Roy Tarpley is in fact more productive and talented than either of the players Sabas features at center.

Our rebounding speaks for itself. David Robinson should outrebound either of his counterparts, and their best rebounder, Karl Malone, is matched and even exceeded in rebounding capacity by all star Tyrone Hill, who was proficient as a rebounder both offensively and defensively. There isn't anyone outstanding at his perimeter slots who presents a compelling enough case to take this front court advantage away.

Overall: We believe our defense hits the right spots on Sabas's team to sufficiently limit him. We also believe we run a deeper and tighter rotation with a rebounding advantage, and can outproduce him both on the perimeter and in the interior.

Starters:
C Dikembe Mutombo
PF Derrick Coleman
SF Larry Johnson
SG Clyde Drexler
PG Derek Harper

Bench:
PF/C Charles Oakley
SG Steve Kerr
PG Terrell Brandon
SF Walt Williams
PF/C Chris Gatling

vs.

Series Avg. Minutes:
Karl Malone - 37
Dana Barros - 37
Detlef Schrempf - 35
Stacey Augmon - 31
Elden Campbell - 26
Kendall Gill - 24
Dale Davis - 22
Mahmoud Adbul-Rauf - 18
Jalen Rose - 10
Mark West - 0

Rotation:
C: Elden Campbell/Dale Davis/Mark West
PF: Karl Malone/Detlef Schrempf
F: Detlef Schrempf/Stacey Augmon/Jalen Rose
GF: Stacey Augmon/Kendall Gill/MAR
G: Dana Barros/Mahmoud Abdul Rauf

I don't have much time to get a writeup done, so I'll just go over the key points I believe give me the advantage in each series and leave the judges to do their thing:

1. Clyde Drexler. I really think people overlook how good Drexler was at this time. He was the reason that Rockets team got over the hump and repeated as champions. Augmon is a solid defender, but Drexler is one of the most unstoppable wing players in the game at this time, with his back down ability and his ability to wreak havoc in the lane.
2. Offensive ability throughout the board. I believe my team just has more options offensively than that of my opponent, creating problems throughout the board. Notably Larry Johnson/Clyde Drexler at the wing positions create numerous issues for my opponent's defense.
3. Defense. No team in this league has the ability to shut down Karl Malone, the guy's one heck of a talent. Derrick Coleman is someone with the athleticism to at least make his job somewhat difficult. We all know how on and off Coleman is, so I'm not scared with the offensive ability of my 2-3 positions to play Oakley more to be a physical presence on Malone. Dikembe/Drexler/Harper/Oak are the core of the team defensively, and I believe Dikembe's clogging of the lane can open up the avenue for my perimeter defenders to cheat a bit.
4. Rebounding. Not many teams can match my prowess on the boards, and I believe we have an advantage here. Dikembe, Coleman, LJ, and Drexler (nearly my entire starting lineup) is full of great rebounders. While my opponent features a great pillar rebounding wise in Karl Malone, he doesn't possess the rebounding ability throughout the board that my team does.
5. My bench. Terrell Brandon, Steve Kerr and Charles Oakley all have a lot to contribute to this series. Brandon is an offensive sparkplug that excels at running the fast break despite playing a ridiculously slow pace in the year selected. If Harper struggles against Barros defensively (which I don't think he will with his large size advantage), I will fight fire with fire with Brandon offensively. Kerr is being brought on strictly to spread the floor and nail jumpers, while Oakley is very important defensively and for the purpose of giving the team energy.

Overall I feel I just have the more talented team here, although that's not always enough to win, I believe I have a very good balance as well. My team is an offensive beast anchored by the DPOY and one of the greatest defenders of all time. I don't feel the offensive core of Malone/Schrempf/Barros that my opponent has is as strong as mine, nor do I believe that he possesses the defensive ability to shut down my wings.

Starters:
C Dikembe Mutombo
PF Derrick Coleman
SF Larry Johnson
SG Clyde Drexler
PG Derek Harper

Bench:
PF/C Charles Oakley
SG Steve Kerr
PG Terrell Brandon
SF Walt Williams
PF/C Chris Gatling

vs.

PG: Tim Hardaway (36 minutes)/John Starks (12 minutes)
SG: Nick Anderson (30 minutes)/John Starks (18 minutes)
SF: Toni Kukoc (32 minutes)/ Robert Horry (16 minutes)
PF: Tyrone Hill (35 minutes)/ Robert Horry (10 minutes)/ Roy Tarpley (3 minutes)
C: David Robinson (38 minutes)/Roy Tarpley (10 minutes)

1. Matchups. I feel confident with the way my team matches up in this series, with a significant presence at center to hinder the opposition's offense and guys who can defend the opposition's wing threats straight up.
2. Derrick Coleman/Clyde Drexler. I believe this pair offensively will be key for my team and can really give their defenders problems. I'm not sure how my opponent plans to stop those two major threats as I don't see Anderson/Hill as having the defensive ability to matchup against these guys.
3. Offense. I just feel like with my opponent's offensive ability, his team will be able to score, there's no doubt Tim Hardaway, David Robinson, Toni Kukoc can score. I believe that my team holds the advantage when it comes to a wide array of offensive talent that ultimately can outscore the opposition. I've got both Coleman and Johnson in my starting lineup, which I think emphasizes how I believe my team will operate. My offense will revolve around getting into the lane and wreaking havoc inside.
4. Bench. Once again I believe my bench offers a lot of variance from my starting lineup, so I just have more option to throw out there depending on the scenario in game. I feel that although Starks, Horry and Tarpley are all solid bench options, my bench offers a more talented group that can really come off the bench and provide me whatever the particular skill that is required at that time, whether it be shooting, post defense, or playmaking.

Once again, good luck to both my opponents. These are both tough matchups and I do regret leaving my writeups this late, but I have a lot of faith in this team.

Alrighty, I'll preface this by saying that there are certain aspects of these two writeups (which I have chosen to complete separately) which overlap between the two. In this writeup anything that is in red was in the previous matchup's writeup.

Offensively: Our offense centers around two of the best offensive players at their respective positions in David Robinson and Tim Hardaway. David Robinson's raw ability speaks for itself. He earned the league MVP and lead the league in player efficiency this season, and it was hardly an outlier. Though nowadays somewhat more renowned for playing some of the best defense of the era, he was also a dominant scorer, terrific in the high post and with an extremely reliable jump shot. And he did much of the magic throughout his career with a mediocre supporting cast, and during the prime of his career never played with a point guard/creator anywhere near the level of Tim Hardaway. Though critics dimissed his Warrior stats (20/9 with a TS% of 55%) as being the product of the heightened pace Golden State employed in this era, he shocked critics by continuing this output when moving to Miami a year later. Two years from this season he even finished 4th in the MVP voting. His partnership with the agile, great rebounding, terrific shooting/high post ability of David Robinson should prove to be even more dynamic and terrifying combination than the one he found with Zo, a combination which we feel is among the best 1-2 punches in this entire league.

Obviously Mutombo is an imposing defensive force, deservedly winning the DPOY in the selected year. But how did he do against David Robinson? Head to head analysis reveals that David Robinson's career numbers (luckily these two played quite a bit of their primes at the same time in the same conference) are strikingly similar to his career numbers. Mutombo will have to exert considerable effort on DRob, and this will at times take him away from the basket, and will always otherwise distract him. His work defending the versatile, mobile, and dominant Robinson will make him less available to function as a defensive anchor and greatly hamper the overall defensive plan for the team.

There is nobody else on the opponent's team that presents a major problem for us defensively. Harper is a strong defender, but he is past his prime at this stage in his career and not ideally suited to guard the small and speedy Tim Hardaway. Brandon won't ultimately cause more damage than Timmy either. Larry Johnson and Derrick Coleman also don't prove to be a particularly imposing defensive combo, and Drexler will be largely isolated handling our perimeter shooters. We feel our effective and dynamic offense should perform every bit as well in this series as the other.

Defensively: Clyde Drexler is their most imposing threat offensively, and he functioned as a second option to a dominant low post presence in the selected year. This older version of the one who was a first option for years of strong Blazer teams will still do some damage, but not more so than David Robinson or Tim Hardaway, and not enough to carry the team. Larry Johnson and Derrick Coleman were undeniably talented, but together with Drexler I can't help but wonder about the fit. Coleman was less than efficient and Larry Johnson, while interesting, wasn't the great post scorer he had been a few years earlier in his career (pre-injury, specifically).

For all of the interesting scorers this team has, I don't see one great playmaker to hold it all together. Brandon is his best passer, but he never had the daunting task of getting enough touches for three players used to getting the ball in their hands as primary offensive options.

Hampering this all is David Robinson. David Robinson used his strength, mobility, and instincts to be one of the best defensive anchors in this or any era, and while this team does have some range, many of its players like to get into the paint to score points. Mutombo, for all of his defensive abilities, is not a terribly daunting defensive assignment for David Robinson and he should be able to alter the game with his defense at maximal efficiency, particularly with help from the enforcing Tyrone Hill down low. Horry backing up both forward positions also gives us the size and reasonably defensive capability to help out against the larger forwards employed by Bryant's team.

Overall: Bryant's team presents a very interesting matchup simply because they boast a compellingly talented team. In spite of Mutombo, however, it has some defensive flaws and may have trouble getting its offensive options the touches they need to succeed at this level. Our offense features a balanced attack lead by a fundamentally sound pairing, and should be able to step up to the plate against Bryant's defense. Defensively we should be able to hinder Bryant's team enough to carry the day.

Series Avg. Minutes:

Karl Malone - 40
Detlef Schrempf - 38
Dana Barros - 37
Dale Davis - 32
Stacey Augmon - 31
Kendall Gill - 26
Elden Campbell - 16
Mahmoud Abdul Rauf - 12
Mark West - 8

C: Elden Campbell/Dale Davis/Mark West
PF: Karl Malone/Campbell
SF: Detlef Schrempf/Augmon
SG: Kendall Gill/Stacey Augmon
PG: Dana Barros/Mahmoud Abdul Rauf

v.

PG: Tim Hardaway (36 minutes)/John Starks (12 minutes)
SG: Nick Anderson (30 minutes)/John Starks (18 minutes)
SF: Toni Kukoc (32 minutes)/ Robert Horry (16 minutes)
PF: Tyrone Hill (35 minutes)/ Robert Horry (10 minutes)/ Roy Tarpley (3 minutes)
C: David Robinson (38 minutes)/Roy Tarpley (10 minutes)

Dale Davis (32)/Mark West (8)/ Elden Campbell (8) v. David Robinson/Roy Tarpley

We're playing Davis 32 minutes exclusively on Robinson due to his ability to play excellent physical man defense. Robinson averaged 17.3 on .486 in 23 career games against Davis' teams. Robinson also shot under 45% in these playoffs. Davis was a very good man and help defender and both of these qualities surely factored into Robinson's struggles. Campbell will see time on Robinson, Hill, and Tarpley. Mark West, another big, physical player, will see time on Robinson as well when Davis is resting. For this series, our C rotation is entirely composed of big, strong players.

Karl Malone (40)/Elden Campbell (8) v. Tyrone Hill/Robert Horry

Malone averaged 25 on .516 for his career but 29.4 on .575 against Hill. Remarkably, Malone got to the line 12.4 times against Hill, who committed 3.9 fouls in just 24 minutes per game. Expect Hill to be in foul trouble pretty quickly and either Horry or Tarpley to see a lot of minutes on Malone. Elden Campbell will back up Malone because we like his height and size against Hill. We will also consider matching Schrempf on Horry at PF due to Horry's skill set, but Schrempf is slated to be a primary SF in this match up.

Detlef Schrempf (38)/Stacey Augmon (10) v. Toni Kukoc/Robert Horry

Kukoc was a very good offensive player and a very bad defender. He got beat off the dribble by smaller players and posted up by bigger players. Schrempf had a nice post up game and dribble penetration in addition to his elite shooting; this is a terrible draw for Toni. The weaknesses in Kukoc's defense will be easily exploited by Schrempf, especially on the perimeter. Kukoc's lack of defense and questionable mental toughness will hurt him, especially against an elite scorer like Schrempf. Schrempf is a far better defender than Kukoc and will contain Toni much better than Toni will contain Det.

Kendall Gill (26)/Mahmoud Abdul Rauf (12)/Dana Barros (10) v. Nick Anderson/John Starks

One of the most infamous events of 1995 was Nick Anderson's meltdown that cost the Magic game one of the finals. He missed four free throws at the end of regulation. Any one of them could have iced the game, but his misses allowed Kenny Smith to hit a game-tying three that led to a Rockets OT victory. Anderson averaged less points, assists, and rebounds on worse percentages in MORE minutes during his playoff career.

Kendall Gill will start the series on Anderson. We like Gill because he is a good all-around offensive player and a nice weapon on defense. Our big three will do most of the offensive heavy lifting, so Gill will be free to focus on defense and making the most of his offensive opportunities. 1995 was a difficult personal season for Gill, but it won't be an issue without George Karl around to mess with him. Abdul-Rauf and Barros will see time primarily on John Starks. Starks shot under 40% for the season, so we're not terribly concerned about him beating us.

Dana Barros (27)/Stacey Augmon (21) v. Tim Hardaway/John Starks

Stacey Augmon made his living on defense, even guarding players such as Allen Iverson very well with his relentless pressure and quick hands and feet. When Augmon's on the floor, he will be guarding Hardaway, with limited time spent on Kukoc. We also like Hardaway's gambling style of defense on either Barros or Abdul Rauf. We feel that Barros can get the better of Hardaway in this match up because of his ability to make Tim really pay for any lapses. Barros is one of the best shooters to every touch a basketball and Hardaway will have his hands full. Meanwhile, Augmon will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting against Hardaway, pressuring Tim for the majority of his minutes on the floor.



Offensively we will be taking it at Hill, Hardaway, and Kukoc. David Robinson will have his hands full covering for Hardaway and especially Kukoc. The fact that Malone absolutely destroyed Hill in 25 career meetings allows us to assume that we will get roughly the same results from him. All of our scorers are good at getting to the line, and Malone is expert at drawing fouls. We are hoping that Robinson spends time helping on Malone because it's a recipe to see him on the pine.

David Robinson is an excellent defensive anchor and Tyrone Hill is a good defender even though Malone has historically destroyed him. Davis and Malone are very good defenders in their own right. Our opponent has an edge in post defense, but we believe that we have a significant edge in perimeter defense with Starks as the only notable perimeter defender the squad.

Again, both teams feature good rebounders at virtually every position, so rebounding should be pretty even.

Malone will get the better of Hill much more than Robinson will on Davis. Schrempf will have his way with Kukoc much more than the other way around and we like how Barros matches up with Hardaway. Our defensive match ups are very favorable with Augmon slowing their key playmaker, Hardaway, and Schrempf's length on Kukoc. We also have plenty of big bodies to throw at Robinson.

In the end, our best two players, Karl Malone and Detlef Schrempf, will win this one for us. We feel that our defensive strategies for slowing their key players, especially Augmon on Hardaway and Davis on Robinson, will pay off as well.

Rebuttal

Drexler was not the same player once he turned 30 after his great 1992 season. He shot under 43% per year until his trade to the Rockets as his production declined across the board. It was only with Houston - and Hakeem - that his production rose again for the final 35 games of that season and the playoffs. His numbers declined again the next year. Drexler was the 2nd guy on that team, playing with one of the three most dominant players of the era. Drexler didn't make the all-star game in '95 because he was simply not that great as a #1 option anymore. Augmon's stifling defense also held Clyde to 36% shooting.

I don't think LJ is going to cause many problems for Schrempf, especially considering how much Schrempf dominated him.

The argument that Coleman's athleticism will make Malone's job more difficult doesn't work for me. Coleman never showed much interest in defense and I think Malone is going to absolutely dominate him offensively and play him very well on defense.

My opponent does have very good rebounders. Malone and Davis are excellent on the boards and several of our other players are good positionally. I believe that the battle of the boards will be pretty close in this one.

I'm not sure how many minutes Kerr will be playing, but we will certainly attack him when he's on defense. It will be a great time for Abdul-Rauf to come in and attack a guy who was a specialist shooter. I certainly respect Brandon's offensive game, but he will also be easy to attack on defense.

I do agree that my opponent has a very talented team, but I see vulnerabilities in his talent. Drexler was not a number one option anymore and Johnson was returning from his back injury a different type of player. Malone/Schrempf/Barros are all in their absolute primes. Barros and Schrempf had two of the most efficient, effective offensive years ever. In this case, my players are simply at a better place in their careers.