Build a Team 1995 FINALS: Congrats to Penbeast!

[Snakebites]

Congrats to our finalists.

You have until midnight on Saturday to post a writeup.

I look forward to reading your arguments and voting, and I hope those others who were eliminated will join me.

[penbeast0]

1995 Finals: The PENBEASTS v. The POOPDAMOOPS

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AT FORWARD, 6-6 and 252 lbs ... SIR CHARLES BARKLEY (39 min)
SEASON PER 36 -- 11.4reb, 4.2ast, 23.6pts @ .572ts% (3.3x3pa@.338)
PLAYOFFS -- 39.0mpg, 13.4reb, 3.2ast, 25.7pts @ .580ts%

AT GUARD, 6'7 and 185lbs. . . REGGIE MILLER (38 min)
SEASON PER 36 -- 2.8reb, 3.3ast, 21.5pts @ .620ts%(6.3x3pa @.415)
PLAYOFFS -- 37.7mpg, 3.6reb, 2.1ast, 25.5pts @ .632ts%

AT CENTER, 7'4 and 250lbs . . . . RIK SMITS (32 min)
SEASON PER 36 -- 9.1reb, 1.7ast, 23.6pts @ .572ts%
PLAYOFFS -- 32.1mpg, 7.0reb, 2.0ast, 20.0pts @ .611ts%

AT GUARD, 6'5 and 195lbs . . . NATE MCMILLAN (20-30min)
SEASON PER 36 -- 5.3reb, 7.3ast, 2.9st, 7.3pts @ .496ts%(2.7x3pa@.342)
PLAYOFFS -- 28.1mpg, 4.5reb, 7.3ast, 2.5st, 4.8pts @ .398ts%

AT FORWARD, 6'9 and 220 lbs . . . A.C. GREEN (20-30min)
SEASON PER 36 -- 9.0reb, 1.7ast, 12.3pts @.596ts% (1.7x3pa @ .339))
PLAYOFFS -- 36.8mpg, 12.0reb. 1.3ast. 12.8pts @.605ts%

At Guard, 6’3 and 185 lbs, KENNY “The Jet” SMITH (20-30min)
SEASON PER 36 – 2.7reb, 5.7ast, 14.9pts @ .640ts% (5.9x3pa @ .429)
PLAYOFF -- 29.6min, 2.2reb, 4.5ast, 10.8pts @ .605ts%

At Forward and Center, 6-8 and 215 lbs, BUCK WILLIAMS (20-30min)
SEASON PER 36 – 9.9reb, 1.2ast, 11.3pts @ .545 ts%
PLAYOFFS – 34.3min, 6.3reb, 0.3ast, 8.3pts @ .630 ts%

At Guard and Forward, 6’5 and 210 lbs . . . . MARIO ELIE (20-30min)
SEASON per 36 – 3.7reb, 3.6ast, 13.5pts @ .631ts% (3.8x3pa @.398)
PLAYOFFS -- 28.1min, 2.8reb, 2.1ast, 9.1pts @ .643ts%

At Center and Forward, 6’9 and 240lbs . . . JAYSON WILLIAMS (0-10min)
SEASON PER 36 -- 15.6reb, 1.2ast, 13.3pts @ .482ts%

At Forward and Guard, 6’8 and 220 lbs . . . . BILLY OWENS (0-10min)
SEASON PER 36 – 7.9reb, 3.9ast, 15.7pts @ .523ts%
 

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Poop’s Team (per 36/playoff)
Shaquille O’Neal(36mpg) 11.1reb 2.6ast 28.5pts .588ts% (.533 ft%)
38.2min 11.9reb 3.3ast 25.7pts .595ts% playoffs

Clifford Robinson(31mpg) 5.6reb 2.6ast 21.2pts .538ts% (.371x3pt)
0-3 in playoffs

Cedric Ceballos(34) 8.2reb 1.9ast 22.4pts .571ts% (.395x3pt)
34.0min 6.1reb 1.8ast 14.2pts .497ts% playoffs

Latrell Sprewell(36) 3.3reb 3.6ast 18.4pts .519ts% (.276x3pt)
no playoffs

Scott Skiles(32)2.8reb 7.8ast 14.0pts .599ts% (.421x3pt)
no playoffs

Anthony Mason (31) 9.4reb 3.5ast 11.0pts .599ts% (.000x3pt)
32.0min 6.2reb 2.2ast 9.5pts .645ts% playoffs

Eric Murdock (16) 3.6reb 8.0ast 16.3pts .524ts% (.375x3pt)
No playoffs

Hubert Davis (12) 2.3reb 3.2ast 17.4pts .612ts%
16.7min 0.6 0.8 4.2pts .471ts% playoffs

Oliver Miller (12) 11.0reb 2.1ast 12.6pts .577ts%
No playoffs


Let me say right off, it’s wonderful to finally face a team no better defensively than we are. On the other hand, Shaq is a nasty offensive load though the team around him is only average. Our advantages are (1) We are significantly more efficient as an offensive team even including Shaq’s outstanding scoring. (2) We are a considerably better rebounding team. (3) We are a considerably better playoff team.

First, a note on defense. Both teams feature 3 offensive stars and two defensive role players. In terms of good defenders, we have two top big men in AC Green and Buck Williams plus two good perimeter defenders in Nate McMillan and Mario Elie. Poop has Cliff Robinson and Anthony Mason as bigs but only Latrell Sprewell to slow our perimeter scorers. Barkley and Ceballos are both terrible defenders; I believe Reggie is better than Scott Skiles though neither are known for defense. The real question is whether Shaq makes a defensive difference the way he did in the Lakers 00-02 runs. Shaq in 95 played with Horace Grant (a terrific defensive PF), Don Royal (a defensive specialist), Nick Anderson (a good defender), and Penny. They finished 13th out of 27 in the NBA defensively. For contrast, Rik Smits played with Dale Davis (an excellent defensive PF), Derrick McKey (also a defensive specialist and better than Royal), Mark Jackson (not a great defender) and Reggie (better than Penny? You say). With Smits in the center, the Pacers finished SIXTH in the NBA defensively! It is hard to believe Shaq is a defensive difference maker; Smits outplayed him defensively in 95.

(1) Meanwhile, our main strengths clearly outshine Pooper’s. We are a considerably more efficient offensive team. Shaq is terrific but his true shooting percentage and scoring are only a bit better than those of Rik Smits (a very underrated player) at 28.5 @ .588 v. 23.4 @ .572 and Smits has better range. Shaq will win this battle but the rest of his team can’t compare.

On the other hand, Shaq has always had a great outside scorer to play with (Penny, Kobe, DWade, Nash, LeBron); that’s missing on poop’s team. His main outside threat is Latrell Sprewell, an inefficient shooter (.519ts%) whose numbers were inflated by Don Nelson playing him more minutes than anyone else in the league during his peak. He is facing Reggie Miller, one of the most efficient scoring guards of all time (.620 this year), who always raised his game on the playoff stage. Shaq has an edge on Rik Smits; Reggie DOMINATES this matchup.

Then, we add a third dominant scorer in Charles Barkley, plus other super efficient players to spread the floor like Kenny Smith and Mario Elie. Poop has Ceballos as his third scorer, a player who, despite flashy per 36 numbers his whole career (more than 20 pp/36 at .500fg% with good foul draw) only started about half his career. Why was this talented a player a career journeyman? He was considered uncoachable – no defense and whenever he got the ball he went straight to the basket ignoring the offense. This isn’t a formula for success next to Shaq. Uncle Cliffie is a good shooting forward and Miller and Davis in their small minutes off the bench but overall, this isn’t a lineup with much help for Shaq.

(2) We are a considerably better rebounding team. Shaq again has a slight edge on Rik Smits (11.1 to 9.1) but despite Ceballos playing as close to the basket as Barkley offensively, Poop’s forwards as a pair are poor rebounders mainly due to Cliff Robinson’s very weak showing (5.6+8.2=13.8) whereas AC Green and Barkley are an outstanding pair of board bangers (9.0+11.4-20.4). Even our guards rebound better (3.3+2.8=6.1)v.(2.8+5.3=8.1). On the whole, our starting lineup has a huge rebounding edge per 36 (31.0 reb/36 v. 37.6 reb/36). Yes, our starting lineup outrebounds Poop’s by almost 20%. And, our bench has the head to head edge toolooking at the 6-8 players or 6-9 if you include Oliver Miller and Jayson Williams. FIXED

(3) Our third advantage is the main way we built the team. We built our team around playoff stars. Barkley and Reggie upped their games in the playoffs, scoring more points on greater efficiency. Rik Smits, AC Green, Kenny Smith, Mario Elie, all the players we rely on for scoring proved reliable playoff scorers who took their teams deep into the playoffs.

Poop has Shaq and . . . well, that’s about it. Ceballos is his only other starter who played significant playoff minutes (Cliff Robinson was swept out in 3 games, none of the other starters made the postseason) and Ceballos disappeared when it mattered. His scoring dropped from by a third, his efficiency went from good to terrible, he didn’t even rebound or pass as well. Off his bench, Mason upped his efficiency but scored less and didn’t rebound (his main job) and shooting specialist Hubert Davis, the only other Pooper with playoff time went from sweet to sour (.612 to .471 ts%). Even Shaq, after getting swept by Smits and the Pacers the previous year, instead got swept in the finals this year (then got swept AGAIN the next year before leaving Orlando for LA). We pick up our game in the playoffs; Poop’s team just picks up their luggage.

[poopdamoop]

AC Green and Barkley are an outstanding pair of board bangers (9.0+11.4-29.4)

Just wanted to point out this mistake here, before people read it and start to believe it. 9+11.4 = 20.4, and that's not getting into the other problems with your method of measuring rebounding (which I will discuss in my next post

[poopdamoop]

My rotation for this matchup

Shaq(36)/Miller(12)
Robinson(30)/Mason(18)
Ceballos(30)/Mason(18)
Sprewell(36)/Davis(12)
Skiles(32)/Murdock(16)

I'm playing Mason more for this match because I think he matches up very well with Barkley, and I will have him on Charles the entire time they're on the court together.

C: Shaq/Miller vs Smits/Buck

We clearly have the advantage here. Don't be fooled by pen's per 36 numbers, Smits can't hold a candle to Shaq. And for all his talk about his players being so much more proven in the playoffs, here are Shaq's numbers from one particular series.

32/11 on 68.8% shooting
39/10 on 71.4%
18/6 on 53.3%
16/10 on 66.7%
35/13 on 61.9%
26/6 on 66.7%
25/11 on 73.3%

Those numbers came against Rik Smits and the Indiana Pacers in a 7 game series, which Orlando won. Smits himself didn't play terribly, but he only reached 10 rebounds once in that series, and shot under 50% three times. In any setting, playoffs or regular season, Shaq will have his way, and be the best player in this series. Miller will be matched up against Buck Williams, who, though a good defender, gives up 60-80 pounds to both Shaq and Miller, and can be backed down with ease. Williams is also primarily a garbage man on offense, leaving Shaq and Miller (2.7 blocks/36) able to help out on penetration.

PF: Robinson/Mason vs Green/Barkley/Williams

We'll be doing a bit of cross-matching here, and putting Ceballos on Green whenever Mason isn't in the game. We're giving up some size, but Green isn't a big scorer and he's only the 4th option on pen's team. We can live with the results for the 10-15 minutes Ceballos will be on him, and then move Robinson over to him once Mason comes in. I'm assuming Barkley will be playing here at times as well, since pen's rotation isn't totally clear, but I'll make sure that either Robinson or Mason (both excellent defenders) will be covering him at all times. Robinson is a big scorer himself though, and if Barkley`s guarding him Cliffy can definitely take advantage of his porous defense and put up points in a hurry. Once they switch Green onto him, Barkley will be forced to guard Ceballos, who`s got plenty of offensive game himself. Either way, Barkley`s defense will be exposed on both of my starting forwards. Mason gives me the perfect defender for Chuck with his size and physicality, and is solid ball-handler and playmaker from the forward position, better than any of pen`s bench players overall. This will probably be the key matchup of the series, and I feel very confident in both Cliffy and Mason to play their roles will and make life difficult for A.C and Barkley.

SF: Ceballos/Mason vs Barkley/Elie

Have to give pen the edge here, Barkley`s a dominant scorer and rebounder. Luckily, we won`t have to witness Ceballos getting thrashed here, as both Robinson and Mason can cover for him very well. However, Barkley will probably be forced to guard Cedric, which could give us some momentum. Ceballos, contrary to popular belief, wasn`t a huge locker room problem until the 96 season when Magic came back and Ced started getting phased out of the offense a bit. Shaq also thought highly of Ced during the 10 games they played together, and told J.J Hickson to model his game after Ceballos this season. He`s an extremely efficient scorer and crashes the boards very well, so Barkley will have to expend a decent amount of energy keeping up with him. When Elie`s in the game, we`ll use Ced more as an off ball cutter and spot up shooter, something he did very well this season. Mason will play here whenever he`s guarding Barkley (see above for explanation). Again, Chuck is clearly the best player here, but by cross matching and having only Robinson and Mason guard him, I think we can limit the damage he does this series.

SG: Sprewell/Davis vs Miller/Elie/McMillian?

I'm curious as to how Reggie DOMINATES this matchup when he does nothing better than Sprewell besides shooting. Sprewell was a year removed from making the All-NBA 1st team in 94, as well as an All-D 2nd team, and still outrebounds and has more assists than Reggie (even using pen's beloved per 36 numbers). Reggie's shooting and scoring efficiency is certainly far better, but Sprewell doesn't have as much of an offensive load to carry here, and can focus on using his speed and quickness to hound Miller and try and force him off his game. Meanwhile, he can get to the basket easily against Reggie, and with Smits, Green, and Barkley not being great shotblockers this is a series where Spree can really go off. It's possible pen will switch McMillan over to Sprewell and hide Reggie on Skiles, but Spree can still focus on being a defensive threat and simply taking scoring opportunities when given, and even Skiles has enough speed and offensive game to make Reggie pay. Davis will simply come in to chuck 3's and chase Elie off the 3 point line, but he'll only be in for 12 minutes, and it will be mostly up to Sprewell to slow down Mario Elie when they're matched up, which won't be too hard. Overall, I can see this matchup going either way, but it's certainly not dominated by pen's team.

PG: Skiles/Murdock vs McMillan/Smith

Nate is a terrible offensive player, so having Skiles guard him frees up Sprewell to wreak havoc on Miller. Nate's a good defender, but unless he's guarding Sprewell his talents will be wasted on my 5th option. Skiles is simply in to make smart decisions, hit open 3's, and when given the opportunity, make plays for my four main scorers. With McMillan on him, Skiles can simply focus on setting everyone else up and providing veteran leadership, but with a bad defender like Reggie on him, Scott can take more of an offensive role and create more for himself and others, which he is more than capable of doing with great efficiency. Smith is a fine shooter, but that's his only noteworthy feature, and it's questionable he'll get as many good looks in this series, since I don't plan on doubling unless absolutely necessary. Murdock will do what Skiles did, create for others, not turn the ball over, and hit open 3's when given. Again, it's hard to decisively give one team the edge here, but McMillan's complete lack of offensive game and my PG's shooting ability could push the game in my favor with only a couple minutes left in game 7.

[poopdamoop]

Other things to note

- What's the point of mentioning per 36 numbers when only two of your guys actually play that long? It completely skews the rebounding numbers (i.e counting Smits as 9.1 rebounds when he won't even be playing the 36 minutes it would take to get those rebounds)

- Rebounds/36 minutes is a pretty poor way to judge rebounding prowess. Rebound percentage is a much better tool, especially if you adjust for how many minutes the players get.

Our teams matched up by rebound rate, sorted by minutes played

Barkley - 18.2%, Shaq - 17.6%
Miller - 4.8%, Sprewell - 5.1%
Smits - 15.3%, Mason - 15.3%
Green - 14.3%(<30mpg), Ceballos - 12.6%
McMillan - 8.7%(<30 mpg), Skiles - 4.4%
Williams - 15.6%(<30 mpg), Robinson - 8.8%
Smith - 4.4%(<30 mpg), Murdock - 6.0%(<30 mpg)
Elie - 5.9%(<30 mpg), Davis - 3.8% and Miller - 17.8%

pen's team still has the edge, but it's not some ridiculous 2-1 margin as he was saying before. Factoring in that Green and Buck Williams, two of pen's best rebounders, won't be playing more than about 20-30 minutes each, whereas Mason will be playing 36, and Robinson's long range shooting will force one of his big men to step out and guard him, thus hurting their rebounding ability, and I think the gap is a very small one. Nonetheless, it's easily made up by my superior offensive firepower and better defensive matchups.

[penbeast0]

What is it with per 36 numbers? If I am comparing a player like Dale Ellis who may average 10 points in 12 minutes with one like Billy Owens who averages 15 points in 36 minutes, it's ridiculous to say Owens is the more dangerous scorer because he averages more points. Ellis is averaging almost twice as many points during the time he is on the floor and the only way to show that is to look at some measure of points scored per minute of playing time. I use per 36 because B-R.com is good enough to list it so I don't have to do math.

Your new rotation may work better or not, we shall see. Mason's extra minutes come at a big cost to your offense since he slows down the offense without being a scorer to make Barkley work at the defensive end, less than A.C. Green, plus Mason is the kind of player that Barkley covers best (best moves are strength moves, doesn't move well without the ball, likes to pound the ball and back in). On the other hand, you are right in that it helps your defense and rebounding by lessening minutes for the weak rebounding Robinson and the weak defensive Ceballos -- just pointing out it's a major tradeoff.

We still score more efficiently, rebound better, and have more playoff chops . . . will do a point by point in an hour or so.

[penbeast0]

My rotation for this matchup

Shaq(36)/Miller(12)
Robinson(30)/Mason(18)
Ceballos(30)/Mason(18)
Sprewell(36)/Davis(12)
Skiles(32)/Murdock(16)

I'm playing Mason more for this match because I think he matches up very well with Barkley, and I will have him on Charles the entire time they're on the court together.

The trouble with playing Mason more is that while he helps your weak defense and rebounding, he's a really poor offensive fit for your offense. Now he is playing 36 minutes which means that you will be playing a lineup of Shaq/Mason/Ceballos/Sprewell/Skiles as one of your two main lineups. All three of your front line players play best right next to the basket; there's no spacing at all. (Cliff Robinson helps with that.) And, with that lineup, while Mason can guard Barkley far more effectively than either of your other forwards, Mason isn't a threat offensively and the offense he does play doesn't play to Barkley's weaknesses. So Barkley will guard him whenever Mase is in the game. Plus Barkley at the other end will still light up Mason just as he did everyone else in the league while you aren't taking advantage of Barkley's defense at your end. I think the tradeoffs here help us more than you.

C: Shaq/Miller vs Smits/Buck

We clearly have the advantage here. Don't be fooled by pen's per 36 numbers, Smits can't hold a candle to Shaq. And for all his talk about his players being so much more proven in the playoffs, here are Shaq's numbers from one particular series.

32/11 on 68.8% shooting
39/10 on 71.4%
18/6 on 53.3%
16/10 on 66.7%
35/13 on 61.9%
26/6 on 66.7%
25/11 on 73.3%

Those numbers came against Rik Smits and the Indiana Pacers in a 7 game series, which Orlando won. Smits himself didn't play terribly, but he only reached 10 rebounds once in that series, and shot under 50% three times. In any setting, playoffs or regular season, Shaq will have his way, and be the best player in this series. Miller will be matched up against Buck Williams, who, though a good defender, gives up 60-80 pounds to both Shaq and Miller, and can be backed down with ease. Williams is also primarily a garbage man on offense, leaving Shaq and Miller (2.7 blocks/36) able to help out on penetration.

It's true. Larry Brown chose to use Smits one on one against Shaq and while Shaq exploded, Indiana was able to contain the rest of Orlando's lineup enough to take the series to 7 games with Smits doing what he does well, scoring efficienty and spacing the offense. His job is to score and keep Shaq working hard and unable to roam. And, Brown made that choice because the previous year Smits did a good enough job on Shaq one on one to allow Indiana to SWEEP the Magic 3-0. Smits can't stop Shaq one on one, no one can; but he does a solid job on him with his height and inteligent positioning. We will be mainly doubling off Anthony Mason using Barkley's quickness and love of messing with other stars; Mason doesn't have the offensive game to slide out and make us pay, he has to score inside.

PF: Robinson/Mason vs Green/Barkley/Williams

We'll be doing a bit of cross-matching here, and putting Ceballos on Green whenever Mason isn't in the game. We're giving up some size, but Green isn't a big scorer and he's only the 4th option on pen's team. We can live with the results for the 10-15 minutes Ceballos will be on him, and then move Robinson over to him once Mason comes in. I'm assuming Barkley will be playing here at times as well, since pen's rotation isn't totally clear, but I'll make sure that either Robinson or Mason (both excellent defenders) will be covering him at all times. Robinson is a big scorer himself though, and if Barkley`s guarding him Cliffy can definitely take advantage of his porous defense and put up points in a hurry. Once they switch Green onto him, Barkley will be forced to guard Ceballos, who`s got plenty of offensive game himself. Either way, Barkley`s defense will be exposed on both of my starting forwards. Mason gives me the perfect defender for Chuck with his size and physicality, and is solid ball-handler and playmaker from the forward position, better than any of pen`s bench players overall. This will probably be the key matchup of the series, and I feel very confident in both Cliffy and Mason to play their roles will and make life difficult for A.C and Barkley.

When Ceballos is on Green, we will certainly look for him more but Poop is right; we will still be a team focused around our main scorers, and Green is a fourth option. Barley will be on Mason when he's in the game, Ceballos when Mason is out because we want Barkley near the basket for his rebounding and strength (and he plays that better than chasing Uncle Cliffie around the perimeter). Same applies when we go small. Elie will be on Ceballos (or Cliff Robinson) whil Barkley guards Mason (or Ceballos). If you don't understand my rotation, I made a long post going into it in the last round.

SF: Ceballos/Mason vs Barkley/Elie

Have to give pen the edge here, Barkley`s a dominant scorer and rebounder. Luckily, we won`t have to witness Ceballos getting thrashed here, as both Robinson and Mason can cover for him very well. However, Barkley will probably be forced to guard Cedric, which could give us some momentum. Ceballos, contrary to popular belief, wasn`t a huge locker room problem until the 96 season when Magic came back and Ced started getting phased out of the offense a bit. Shaq also thought highly of Ced during the 10 games they played together, and told J.J Hickson to model his game after Ceballos this season. He`s an extremely efficient scorer and crashes the boards very well, so Barkley will have to expend a decent amount of energy keeping up with him. When Elie`s in the game, we`ll use Ced more as an off ball cutter and spot up shooter, something he did very well this season. Mason will play here whenever he`s guarding Barkley (see above for explanation). Again, Chuck is clearly the best player here, but by cross matching and having only Robinson and Mason guard him, I think we can limit the damage he does this series.

Ceballos may not have been a locker room problem but there's a reason a player with his flashy stats played out his career as a fourneyman. He had his own way of playing and it was pure playground which made him difficult to coach or fit into a pro level offense. Ceballos was never an off ball mover or spot up shooter. He would take the occasional three but if he got the ball with a man on him, his head would go down and he would go to the hole. That was his game. If Shaq told Hickson to be like Ceballos it meant quit shooting midrange jumpers and take the ball to the basket -- which isn't bad advice for a guy with Hickson's game.

SG: Sprewell/Davis vs Miller/Elie/McMillian?

I'm curious as to how Reggie DOMINATES this matchup when he does nothing better than Sprewell besides shooting. Sprewell was a year removed from making the All-NBA 1st team in 94, as well as an All-D 2nd team, and still outrebounds and has more assists than Reggie (even using pen's beloved per 36 numbers). Reggie's shooting and scoring efficiency is certainly far better, but Sprewell doesn't have as much of an offensive load to carry here, and can focus on using his speed and quickness to hound Miller and try and force him off his game. Meanwhile, he can get to the basket easily against Reggie, and with Smits, Green, and Barkley not being great shotblockers this is a series where Spree can really go off. It's possible pen will switch McMillan over to Sprewell and hide Reggie on Skiles, but Spree can still focus on being a defensive threat and simply taking scoring opportunities when given, and even Skiles has enough speed and offensive game to make Reggie pay. Davis will simply come in to chuck 3's and chase Elie off the 3 point line, but he'll only be in for 12 minutes, and it will be mostly up to Sprewell to slow down Mario Elie when they're matched up, which won't be too hard. Overall, I can see this matchup going either way, but it's certainly not dominated by pen's team.

I'd say dominate is fair. Both are primarily scorers, Spree even shoots more, and scores less , per minute played. For his whole career, Spree has been an inefficient scorer who nonetheless thinks he's a star and will shoot the ball a lot. Like Ceballos, he's a very playground game with a chip on his shoulder, he strangled one coach . What the assist numbers mean is that he likes the ball in his hands so he can slash, that's his game though he has much more of a midrange stroke than Ceballos. He did get some recognition since Don Nelson ran his offense through him, giving him free rein; and he's a good defensive player. BUT, he's the main outside threat on Poops roster and he's just not a good shooter. Reggie shoots better from three (of course . . . it's silly to compare), shoots better from two, and even draws as many fouls (and makes more fts) despite Sprewell's taking more shots per minute . Reggie is the most efficient starter on the floor, more than Shaq; Spree is one of the worst and the worst that shoots the volume that Spree does. Yeah, REggie dominates this one.

PG: Skiles/Murdock vs McMillan/Smith

Nate is a terrible offensive player, so having Skiles guard him frees up Sprewell to wreak havoc on Miller. Nate's a good defender, but unless he's guarding Sprewell his talents will be wasted on my 5th option. Skiles is simply in to make smart decisions, hit open 3's, and when given the opportunity, make plays for my four main scorers. With McMillan on him, Skiles can simply focus on setting everyone else up and providing veteran leadership, but with a bad defender like Reggie on him, Scott can take more of an offensive role and create more for himself and others, which he is more than capable of doing with great efficiency. Smith is a fine shooter, but that's his only noteworthy feature, and it's questionable he'll get as many good looks in this series, since I don't plan on doubling unless absolutely necessary. Murdock will do what Skiles did, create for others, not turn the ball over, and hit open 3's when given. Again, it's hard to decisively give one team the edge here, but McMillan's complete lack of offensive game and my PG's shooting ability could push the game in my favor with only a couple minutes left in game 7.

Spree won't "wreak havoc" with Reggie. He is a good defender, but Reggie is a great scorer and Reggie will still score extremely well even with Spree on him. Nate McMillan will be on Skiles because his size and quickness will frustrate Skile's attempts to run the offense. Nate tied Scottie Pippen for the highest steal percentage in the league, he'll create problems for Skiles's passing as well as shutting dowdn Skiles's outside shooting leaving Poop relying again on Spreewell's weak outside game to provide some degree of spacing for Shaq, Mason, and Ceballos. And, when the superefficient Kenny Smith comes in (.640 tru shooting %!), Skiles is a weak defender. This is not a good matchup for the Poopers either.

...

And, notice that Pooopdamoop never adressed his lack of playoff performers. Shaq is up and down; sometimes he will be on and dominate but eventually, throughout his Orlando career, he lost defensive focus and ended up getting swept. Ceballos disappeared in the playoffs, Mason shot well but scored even less and rebounded poorly. And the only other playoff appearance on Poop's whole team was Uncle Cliffie who got swept 0-3. We have great PLAYOFF performers in Barkley and Reggie, plus Smits, Green, and NBA champions Kenny Smith and Mario Elie -- all of whom are playoff tested. This is the biggest edge in this matchup and the one that will lead us to victory over the Pooopers. This is the playoffs; it's a different world and we excel at it.

[SabasRevenge!]

First of all, Shaq is the best player in the series. He's a serious load even if he hasn't rounded into top form as of yet. As the draft unfolded, Pen had the best 1/2 punch in the game with Barkley and Miller. Sprewell was a good second pick and Miller was a great one. I'm not sold on Spree as a second option, but prime Cliffy and Ceballos provide enough punch that it's not an issue. In round three, Pen lucked out when Smits was still there and started separating himself from the rest of the pack. Miller4ever certainly would have snagged him with the next pick. IMO Ceballos may have not been the best choice, especially with Horace Grant on the board to put next to Shaq and plenty of scoring wings still on the board. Poop had some great value picks down the line, especially Mason in round six, but Pen secured IMO the top first three in the game and drafted well the rest of the way, especially for his bench.

Pen had the better draft, but who wins this series?

Poop has some excellent scoring options around Shaq and better playmakers on the floor. McMillan finished in the top ten in assists for three consecutive years before Payton's arrival in Seattle and his AST%/A:TO was still pretty good even with GP on his team, so I'm not concerned about him as a primary PG. IMO Poop has slightly better passers, especially with Mason providing a point forward option off the bench. Pen does have a rebounding and efficiency advantage, even though I think Pen's efficiency advantage has been overstated. Neither team has great defenders all around, but both teams have a few good defenders to lean on. Sprewell will make Miller work, but nobody's stopping Reggie in the playoffs. I had wondered whether Pen would take Miller or Richmond in the draft and this is where taking Miller pays off. Barkley/Shaq score a bunch in this series, but Miller as a second option and better team chemistry again give Pen the victory.

Overall, I give Penbeast0 this series in six games.

[Snakebites]

Hmm, tough call.

I'll issue my vote later tonight.

[Miller4ever]

penbeast, in taking Miller and Smits one spot before me, respectively, has the team I wanted, basically. I think it's pen's superior team balance versus the Shaq factor.

Miller has 8 points in 8.9 seconds in him this particular season.

I will withhold what I feel will be a drastically biased vote until later.

[Snakebites]

Thank you very much to both for presenting your writeups on time (something I pathetically failed to do twice in my OWN game ).

While its easy to think of Shaq as unassailable in this context, this pre-prime Shaq, even paired with a superstar guard and a dynamic supporting cast, was most definitely assailable. The supporting cast he has around him is very interesting, but at the same time not outstandingly mroe talented than the one Shaq had on his real Magic team which was, as demonstrated, beatable (the Reggie lead Pacers in fact took them to 7 games). Ceballos is superior to Dennis Scott, but Shaq had a better backcourt in Orlando and a comparable power forward in terms of fit.

He on his own will certainly have no trouble going off against Rik Smits, but penbeast's offensive trio is extremely imposing in its own right. Barkley and Miller each lead teams that took the eventual Finals competitors to 7 games, and each proved their ability to lead. Together I think they can get past this Shaq team with the supporting cast of competitors pen has placed around them. pen's team of playoff performers that fit well together is the recipe that in the real NBA was a proven and demonstrated way of beating Shaq at this stage of his career.

I vote penbeast.

[CellarDoor]

Reading and voting soon.

[Snakebites]

Would like to close voting at midnight EST tomorrow night.

[Miller4ever]

I'll get mine in now, then.

Shaq is the most potent player in the matchup. Barkley is over the hill, so to speak, and Reggie, while the GOAT in other respects, is not a game-changer like Shaq. But as I look at the teams, I see better passing out of pen's squad, and better people to take advantage, namely Reggie.

The efficiency is not definitely in pen's favor, but the advantage is there. Shaq can run roughshod over pen's defense, but pen's balance will win out. He's got more guys who have been around the block and have tasted victory.

[CellarDoor]

It comes down to how much separation you see between young Shaq and Prime Shaq. I see enough of a gap that Pen's squad overtakes him. Which is very depressing as I feel I could've beaten his squad if I'd have actually POSTED both write-ups in the first round.

[Snakebites]

Looks like Penbeast will go into the next game as the defending champion.

I hope you will all join me in congratulation him on building the winning team!

[SabasRevenge!]

Helluva team, pen!

[poopdamoop]

Well deserved. 'grats to you good sir

[Miller4ever]

Let's get the 70's rolling!

[penbeast0]

Thanks, fun run! To be honest, I didn't like my stars that much. I've never liked Barkley and while I do admire Reggie, pairing him with Barkley and Smits to my mind isn't a great formula. But, Smits falling was huge; he may not be the perfect center for this team but the next alternative was Kevin Willis or Mark West -- neither of whom wins any matchups at all. And being able to get Kenny Smith and Mario Elie was the other big break; they let me harp on efficiency and playoff performance over and over to drown out the dread cries of "But Barkley (and Miller and Smits and Kenny Smith) is going to get absolutely toasted defensively"

I'll have a thread for 75 posted by Friday. Thanks again to everyone who participated!