poopdamoop wrote:My rotation for this matchup
Shaq(36)/Miller(12)
Robinson(30)/Mason(18)
Ceballos(30)/Mason(18)
Sprewell(36)/Davis(12)
Skiles(32)/Murdock(16)
I'm playing Mason more for this match because I think he matches up very well with Barkley, and I will have him on Charles the entire time they're on the court together.
The trouble with playing Mason more is that while he helps your weak defense and rebounding, he's a really poor offensive fit for your offense. Now he is playing 36 minutes which means that you will be playing a lineup of Shaq/Mason/Ceballos/Sprewell/Skiles as one of your two main lineups. All three of your front line players play best right next to the basket; there's no spacing at all. (Cliff Robinson helps with that.) And, with that lineup, while Mason can guard Barkley far more effectively than either of your other forwards, Mason isn't a threat offensively and the offense he does play doesn't play to Barkley's weaknesses. So Barkley will guard him whenever Mase is in the game. Plus Barkley at the other end will still light up Mason just as he did everyone else in the league while you aren't taking advantage of Barkley's defense at your end. I think the tradeoffs here help us more than you.
C: Shaq/Miller vs Smits/Buck
We clearly have the advantage here. Don't be fooled by pen's per 36 numbers, Smits can't hold a candle to Shaq. And for all his talk about his players being so much more proven in the playoffs, here are Shaq's numbers from one particular series.
32/11 on 68.8% shooting
39/10 on 71.4%
18/6 on 53.3%
16/10 on 66.7%
35/13 on 61.9%
26/6 on 66.7%
25/11 on 73.3%
Those numbers came against Rik Smits and the Indiana Pacers in a 7 game series, which Orlando won. Smits himself didn't play terribly, but he only reached 10 rebounds once in that series, and shot under 50% three times. In any setting, playoffs or regular season, Shaq will have his way, and be the best player in this series. Miller will be matched up against Buck Williams, who, though a good defender, gives up 60-80 pounds to both Shaq and Miller, and can be backed down with ease. Williams is also primarily a garbage man on offense, leaving Shaq and Miller (2.7 blocks/36) able to help out on penetration.
It's true. Larry Brown chose to use Smits one on one against Shaq and while Shaq exploded, Indiana was able to contain the rest of Orlando's lineup enough to take the series to 7 games with Smits doing what he does well, scoring efficienty and spacing the offense. His job is to score and keep Shaq working hard and unable to roam. And, Brown made that choice because the previous year Smits did a good enough job on Shaq one on one to allow Indiana to SWEEP the Magic 3-0. Smits can't stop Shaq one on one, no one can; but he does a solid job on him with his height and inteligent positioning. We will be mainly doubling off Anthony Mason using Barkley's quickness and love of messing with other stars; Mason doesn't have the offensive game to slide out and make us pay, he has to score inside.
PF: Robinson/Mason vs Green/Barkley/Williams
We'll be doing a bit of cross-matching here, and putting Ceballos on Green whenever Mason isn't in the game. We're giving up some size, but Green isn't a big scorer and he's only the 4th option on pen's team. We can live with the results for the 10-15 minutes Ceballos will be on him, and then move Robinson over to him once Mason comes in. I'm assuming Barkley will be playing here at times as well, since pen's rotation isn't totally clear, but I'll make sure that either Robinson or Mason (both excellent defenders) will be covering him at all times. Robinson is a big scorer himself though, and if Barkley`s guarding him Cliffy can definitely take advantage of his porous defense and put up points in a hurry. Once they switch Green onto him, Barkley will be forced to guard Ceballos, who`s got plenty of offensive game himself. Either way, Barkley`s defense will be exposed on both of my starting forwards. Mason gives me the perfect defender for Chuck with his size and physicality, and is solid ball-handler and playmaker from the forward position, better than any of pen`s bench players overall. This will probably be the key matchup of the series, and I feel very confident in both Cliffy and Mason to play their roles will and make life difficult for A.C and Barkley.
When Ceballos is on Green, we will certainly look for him more but Poop is right; we will still be a team focused around our main scorers, and Green is a fourth option. Barley will be on Mason when he's in the game, Ceballos when Mason is out because we want Barkley near the basket for his rebounding and strength (and he plays that better than chasing Uncle Cliffie around the perimeter). Same applies when we go small. Elie will be on Ceballos (or Cliff Robinson) whil Barkley guards Mason (or Ceballos). If you don't understand my rotation, I made a long post going into it in the last round.
SF: Ceballos/Mason vs Barkley/Elie
Have to give pen the edge here, Barkley`s a dominant scorer and rebounder. Luckily, we won`t have to witness Ceballos getting thrashed here, as both Robinson and Mason can cover for him very well. However, Barkley will probably be forced to guard Cedric, which could give us some momentum. Ceballos, contrary to popular belief, wasn`t a huge locker room problem until the 96 season when Magic came back and Ced started getting phased out of the offense a bit. Shaq also thought highly of Ced during the 10 games they played together, and told J.J Hickson to model his game after Ceballos this season. He`s an extremely efficient scorer and crashes the boards very well, so Barkley will have to expend a decent amount of energy keeping up with him. When Elie`s in the game, we`ll use Ced more as an off ball cutter and spot up shooter, something he did very well this season. Mason will play here whenever he`s guarding Barkley (see above for explanation). Again, Chuck is clearly the best player here, but by cross matching and having only Robinson and Mason guard him, I think we can limit the damage he does this series.
Ceballos may not have been a locker room problem but there's a reason a player with his flashy stats played out his career as a fourneyman. He had his own way of playing and it was pure playground which made him difficult to coach or fit into a pro level offense. Ceballos was never an off ball mover or spot up shooter. He would take the occasional three but if he got the ball with a man on him, his head would go down and he would go to the hole. That was his game. If Shaq told Hickson to be like Ceballos it meant quit shooting midrange jumpers and take the ball to the basket -- which isn't bad advice for a guy with Hickson's game.
SG: Sprewell/Davis vs Miller/Elie/McMillian?
I'm curious as to how Reggie DOMINATES this matchup when he does nothing better than Sprewell besides shooting. Sprewell was a year removed from making the All-NBA 1st team in 94, as well as an All-D 2nd team, and still outrebounds and has more assists than Reggie (even using pen's beloved per 36 numbers). Reggie's shooting and scoring efficiency is certainly far better, but Sprewell doesn't have as much of an offensive load to carry here, and can focus on using his speed and quickness to hound Miller and try and force him off his game. Meanwhile, he can get to the basket easily against Reggie, and with Smits, Green, and Barkley not being great shotblockers this is a series where Spree can really go off. It's possible pen will switch McMillan over to Sprewell and hide Reggie on Skiles, but Spree can still focus on being a defensive threat and simply taking scoring opportunities when given, and even Skiles has enough speed and offensive game to make Reggie pay. Davis will simply come in to chuck 3's and chase Elie off the 3 point line, but he'll only be in for 12 minutes, and it will be mostly up to Sprewell to slow down Mario Elie when they're matched up, which won't be too hard. Overall, I can see this matchup going either way, but it's certainly not dominated by pen's team.
I'd say dominate is fair. Both are primarily scorers, Spree even shoots more, and scores less

, per minute played. For his whole career, Spree has been an inefficient scorer who nonetheless thinks he's a star and will shoot the ball a lot. Like Ceballos, he's a very playground game with a chip on his shoulder, he strangled one coach

. What the assist numbers mean is that he likes the ball in his hands so he can slash, that's his game though he has much more of a midrange stroke than Ceballos. He did get some recognition since Don Nelson ran his offense through him, giving him free rein; and he's a good defensive player. BUT, he's the main outside threat on Poops roster and he's just not a good shooter. Reggie shoots better from three (of course . . . it's silly to compare), shoots better from two, and even draws as many fouls (and makes more fts) despite Sprewell's taking more shots per minute . Reggie is the most efficient starter on the floor, more than Shaq; Spree is one of the worst and the worst that shoots the volume that Spree does. Yeah, REggie dominates this one.
PG: Skiles/Murdock vs McMillan/Smith
Nate is a terrible offensive player, so having Skiles guard him frees up Sprewell to wreak havoc on Miller. Nate's a good defender, but unless he's guarding Sprewell his talents will be wasted on my 5th option. Skiles is simply in to make smart decisions, hit open 3's, and when given the opportunity, make plays for my four main scorers. With McMillan on him, Skiles can simply focus on setting everyone else up and providing veteran leadership, but with a bad defender like Reggie on him, Scott can take more of an offensive role and create more for himself and others, which he is more than capable of doing with great efficiency. Smith is a fine shooter, but that's his only noteworthy feature, and it's questionable he'll get as many good looks in this series, since I don't plan on doubling unless absolutely necessary. Murdock will do what Skiles did, create for others, not turn the ball over, and hit open 3's when given. Again, it's hard to decisively give one team the edge here, but McMillan's complete lack of offensive game and my PG's shooting ability could push the game in my favor with only a couple minutes left in game 7.
Spree won't "wreak havoc" with Reggie. He is a good defender, but Reggie is a great scorer and Reggie will still score extremely well even with Spree on him. Nate McMillan will be on Skiles because his size and quickness will frustrate Skile's attempts to run the offense. Nate tied Scottie Pippen for the highest steal percentage in the league, he'll create problems for Skiles's passing as well as shutting dowdn Skiles's outside shooting leaving Poop relying again on Spreewell's weak outside game to provide some degree of spacing for Shaq, Mason, and Ceballos. And, when the superefficient Kenny Smith comes in (.640 tru shooting %!), Skiles is a weak defender. This is not a good matchup for the Poopers either.
...
And, notice that Pooopdamoop never adressed his lack of playoff performers. Shaq is up and down; sometimes he will be on and dominate but eventually, throughout his Orlando career, he lost defensive focus and ended up getting swept. Ceballos disappeared in the playoffs, Mason shot well but scored even less and rebounded poorly. And the only other playoff appearance on Poop's whole team was Uncle Cliffie who got swept 0-3. We have great PLAYOFF performers in Barkley and Reggie, plus Smits, Green, and NBA champions Kenny Smith and Mario Elie -- all of whom are playoff tested. This is the biggest edge in this matchup and the one that will lead us to victory over the Pooopers. This is the playoffs; it's a different world and we excel at it.