Season Simulation
Posted: Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:30 pm
I'm thinking of simulating the season just for fun because well, we may not have a season.
Most of these games are about making trades. This is not one of those games. This will be about trying to predict the course of an imaginary season. We'll try to guess where free agents will land and try to guess the win total for each team over 82 games.
The idea being to try and be as realistic as possible. Those who want to participate will be working WITH each other to try and create a realistic whole instead of AGAINST each other to try and build a championship team.
So, if you have a team you are working on you might try something like this:
Utah Jazz
PG - Devin Harris - Harris had a hard time adjusting to the Jazz in 17 games last season, but, with a full offseason to adjust I expect his stats to approximate his career averages.
Backup PG - Earl Watson - Jazz will likely resign Watson to a 2 year deal at or around one mil per. Competition for WAtson's services is slight around the league as witnessed by his contract last year, however he was an effective backup PG for the Jazz and will likely be retained with a small and short deal.
SG - CJ Miles - Jazz picked up the option on CJ so he's under contract for this coming year. It's a contract year for Miles so he's expected to come into camp in terrific shape and really look to make an impact in order to try and improve his value. However this may cause a conflict if he becomes too selfish for the team concept.
Backup SG - Alec Burks. Burks was drafted #12 by the Jazz last year and has had an impressive summer. It looks like he's the real deal and will likely take over the starting job next year. Unless he really shines it's unlikely, but possible, that he'll move Miles out of the starting spot.
SF - Gordon Hayward. Hayward played a lot of SG for the Jazz last year, but, Miles has been slimming down this summer in what appears to be a bid to be the starting SG. Hayward is suited just fine for the SF spot at 6'8" and good footspeed. He really excelled down the stretch last year showing a lot of ability the last month or two of the season. He looks to be a better defensive Mike Dunleavy Jr. type ot me.
Backup SF - I'm betting the Jazz make a run at Shane Battier this offseason. He'd be an excellent force in the locker room giving the Jazz some much needed leadership along with good defense and outside shooting when on the floor. I expect the Jazz will offer him a 2 year full MLE type of deal Maybe a team option or buyout on year #3. If they can't work that out they might be tempted to Bring AK47 back for the same offer, however, I feel they would prefer Battier's leadership and health to AK's better shot blocking.
PF - Derrick Favors. Favors is the best bet to start at PF for the Jazz providing a nice defensive compliment to Jefferson at center and moving Paul Millsap back to a more comfortable 6th man role.
Backup PF - Paul MIllsap looks to be returning to a backup role this coming season with the emergence of Derrick Favors. Millsap has excelled in a backup role before and will still see around 30 minutes so I don't anticipate a big issue with the change.
Center - Al Jefferson. Jefferson had a better last two months of the season after recovering from a wrist injury. However, I expect his production to remain about the same as it was for the Jazz last season on the whole.
Backup center - Mehmet Okur. Who? Memo missed all of last year while recovering from a bad achilies injury. He looks like he's going to be back in game shape and will help the Jazz off the bench spacing the floor in limited minutes.
Big man depth - Enes Kanter and Jeremy Evans will provide some depth at the 4 and 5 position where both will be fighting for limited minutes.
Guard depth - Raja Bell was horrific for the Jazz last season. I don't know if he was just having trouble coming back off injury or if age has just crushed him. But, he's going to have to prove a lot to get minutes for this young squad.
Likely signings
---------------
Earl Watson
Shane Battier (25%)
Andrei Kirilenko (50%)
Other free agent swing player (25%)
Likely departures
----------------
Andrei Kirilenko (50%)
Francisco Elson
Kyrylo Fesenko
Ronnie Price
Trade chips
----------------
Paul Millsap
Al Jefferson
Devin Harris
Raja Bell (negative value)
Trade targets
----------------
Draft picks
Expiring contracts
Contracts with 2 years left
1st option scoring SF
Young pass first PG
Unlikely to be moved
----------------
Derrick Favors
Gordon Hayward
Enes Kanter
Alec Burks
Jazz 1sts
GS 1st
Estimated record
---------------
37-45
Most of these games are about making trades. This is not one of those games. This will be about trying to predict the course of an imaginary season. We'll try to guess where free agents will land and try to guess the win total for each team over 82 games.
The idea being to try and be as realistic as possible. Those who want to participate will be working WITH each other to try and create a realistic whole instead of AGAINST each other to try and build a championship team.
So, if you have a team you are working on you might try something like this:
Utah Jazz
PG - Devin Harris - Harris had a hard time adjusting to the Jazz in 17 games last season, but, with a full offseason to adjust I expect his stats to approximate his career averages.
Backup PG - Earl Watson - Jazz will likely resign Watson to a 2 year deal at or around one mil per. Competition for WAtson's services is slight around the league as witnessed by his contract last year, however he was an effective backup PG for the Jazz and will likely be retained with a small and short deal.
SG - CJ Miles - Jazz picked up the option on CJ so he's under contract for this coming year. It's a contract year for Miles so he's expected to come into camp in terrific shape and really look to make an impact in order to try and improve his value. However this may cause a conflict if he becomes too selfish for the team concept.
Backup SG - Alec Burks. Burks was drafted #12 by the Jazz last year and has had an impressive summer. It looks like he's the real deal and will likely take over the starting job next year. Unless he really shines it's unlikely, but possible, that he'll move Miles out of the starting spot.
SF - Gordon Hayward. Hayward played a lot of SG for the Jazz last year, but, Miles has been slimming down this summer in what appears to be a bid to be the starting SG. Hayward is suited just fine for the SF spot at 6'8" and good footspeed. He really excelled down the stretch last year showing a lot of ability the last month or two of the season. He looks to be a better defensive Mike Dunleavy Jr. type ot me.
Backup SF - I'm betting the Jazz make a run at Shane Battier this offseason. He'd be an excellent force in the locker room giving the Jazz some much needed leadership along with good defense and outside shooting when on the floor. I expect the Jazz will offer him a 2 year full MLE type of deal Maybe a team option or buyout on year #3. If they can't work that out they might be tempted to Bring AK47 back for the same offer, however, I feel they would prefer Battier's leadership and health to AK's better shot blocking.
PF - Derrick Favors. Favors is the best bet to start at PF for the Jazz providing a nice defensive compliment to Jefferson at center and moving Paul Millsap back to a more comfortable 6th man role.
Backup PF - Paul MIllsap looks to be returning to a backup role this coming season with the emergence of Derrick Favors. Millsap has excelled in a backup role before and will still see around 30 minutes so I don't anticipate a big issue with the change.
Center - Al Jefferson. Jefferson had a better last two months of the season after recovering from a wrist injury. However, I expect his production to remain about the same as it was for the Jazz last season on the whole.
Backup center - Mehmet Okur. Who? Memo missed all of last year while recovering from a bad achilies injury. He looks like he's going to be back in game shape and will help the Jazz off the bench spacing the floor in limited minutes.
Big man depth - Enes Kanter and Jeremy Evans will provide some depth at the 4 and 5 position where both will be fighting for limited minutes.
Guard depth - Raja Bell was horrific for the Jazz last season. I don't know if he was just having trouble coming back off injury or if age has just crushed him. But, he's going to have to prove a lot to get minutes for this young squad.
Likely signings
---------------
Earl Watson
Shane Battier (25%)
Andrei Kirilenko (50%)
Other free agent swing player (25%)
Likely departures
----------------
Andrei Kirilenko (50%)
Francisco Elson
Kyrylo Fesenko
Ronnie Price
Trade chips
----------------
Paul Millsap
Al Jefferson
Devin Harris
Raja Bell (negative value)
Trade targets
----------------
Draft picks
Expiring contracts
Contracts with 2 years left
1st option scoring SF
Young pass first PG
Unlikely to be moved
----------------
Derrick Favors
Gordon Hayward
Enes Kanter
Alec Burks
Jazz 1sts
GS 1st
Estimated record
---------------
37-45