PLAYOFFS All NBA Reject Game Winner SNAKEBITES!

[Snakebites]

Sorry guys, day got away from me yesterday and I wasn't able to get this going. 3 days is the standard amount of time for writeups and such. If this is an issue for anyone we can discuss changing the deadline. My main interest is in making sure everyone is able to do what they need to do.

Bracket 1

lukekarts
Cellardoor
Snakebites

Bracket 2

TMACFORMVP
Riotpunch
sterncohen

Bracket 3

Miller4ever
Blackice
5th pick sucks

Bracket 4

Sam Bone
poopdamoop
keeslinator

[-Kees-]

Kees

PG: Anderson (30) / Dumars (18) / Kerr (0)
SG: Dumars (16) / Iguodala (32)
SF: Aguirre (36) / Prince (12)
PF: Kemp (32) / O'Neal (16)
Cc: O'Neal (16) / Eaton (32) / Bol (0)


VS

poopdamoop

Great, I get to face Agent 0 again lol.

Offense:
My team is made up of many players that can dominate games, so even though PDM has a few good defenders, he has a lot of holes too. Aguirre was consistently the best player on his team, and the best scorer. Dumars is known to take over games when teams used to double-team Isiah. Iggy has made multiple clutch shots and has a very unique game that allows him to beat a lot of guys. Then I have my twin towers down low, each very versatile, 2-way bigs.

I plan on attacking on the perimeter, using Dumars/Aguirre the most. One thing I will give PDM is that he has 2 very solid bigs on D; Nance was a great shot-blocker and Cowens was one of the better defensive C's in the 70's, so driving the ball won't be quite as effective as it would be against other teams.

We will run the half-court O through whoever PDM doesn't put Bowen on. English is certainly not a good defender, and is known for that. He is a scorer, and rebounder, similar to current day Carmelo. So Bowen should disrupt (to some extent) one of my wings, but the other should get his way. I will assume that Bowen will be on Dumars, because he is playing SG.

We will work the ball down low a bit too. Kemp is very hard to stop, and Nance won't shut him down. JO can mix it up a bit with his mid-range game, passing and low-post scoring as well.

Iguodala also will get a decent amount of minutes at the 2. Bowen is a solid defender, but by no means a shut down guy. He isn't as athletic as Pippen, not as strong as Artest and not as long as Prince. He just isn't quite the lock-down defender PDM needs with Arenas and English on the wing with him. A versatile play maker like Iggy should have his way when he is in the game against Bowen.

Another huge thing I want to point out is how much trouble he will have on D when I put out Dumars/Iggy/Aguirre. All three of them will go off for big points if not checked by a great defender, and he only has one. Dumars will rip up the lazy Arenas on D, and Aguirre will have no trouble getting above his averages. Even Iggy, who has a decent defender on him, will turn into a play maker, and should limit what Bowen is usually effective at.

Defense
I think that PDM's perimeter has problems from the start. First, you have 2 players who are used to playing with the ball in their hands, in English and Arenas, and neither are play makers, meaning less touches for everyone else. Another thing I see is that there is only one spacer, Bowen. English was a brick from 3PT land (only took 12 in selected season, made 2) and Arenas has been known to not know what to do without the ball.

So how will we exploit this? We will run a trapping defense, 1-3-1 type deal. O'Neal and Eaton (when he's in) will stay put in the paint, waiting for a drive so they can block their shot. Iggy and/or Dumars will force the main ball handler one way or the other. The wing on the side that he forced the other player to will trap the ballhandler, and should cause a turnover, because both Arenas and English don't have good vision or physical passing skills. Bowen just doesn't know how to handle the ball, and is the only player that knows how the hit a 3 consistently.

Lack of spacing/play making + trapping defense = Turnovers
Good fast break team (Aguirre, Iggy, Dumars, Kemp) + Turnovers = More scoring
More scoring = More wins

Makes sense to me.

After the trap, if we don't get a turnover, we will go to a man-to-man set. Bigs will cover each other, but Dumars will slow down Agent 0, Aguirre will be on Enlgish, and Anderson on Bowen, limiting the attacks on him. When Iggy's in the game for Anderson, we will put him on English, and let Aguirre take a break by putting him on Bowen.

Another thing I want to mention, is that even though Nance and Cowens are solid offensive players (but not great), they won't get the ball in an effective position because of the high USG%'s of Arenas and English, and the lack of spacing. I will be able to double-team their post players because English is no threat from deep, and Arenas won't know how to get himself open. Really, it is an unsuccessful offensive team.

A few points I want to make....

SF
Aguirre has an extremely diverse offensive game. He is a smart passer, has good footwork in the post, and can shoot the ball very well from mid-range. He also has very underrated touch around the basket. English is also a primarily offensive player, but doesn't do it quite as well as Aguirre. I want to post out just that Aguirre is much more efficient that English:

In selected seasons...

English scored 28.4 PPG, taking 22.6 FGA and a .517 FG%
Aguirre scored 29.5 PPG, taking 22.3 FGA and a .524 FG%

They are close numbers, but the point I want to make is that Aguirre scored more points, using less shots, on better efficiency. I don't see how, in both of their best areas, that English would have the advantage here.

I also expect neither player to stop each other, but based on stats and style of play, Aguirre has the advantage.

When Prince comes in, he will cause English lots of problems. With a lack of a strong, PG to distribute the ball, English will be forced to do some of that, and the 6'9, very long Prince will cause him as many problems as anyone else.

Assists
A huge point I would like to make is the lack of passing and fluidity this team will have on O.

My team, from players who play decent minutes (so not counting Prince) has 2 guys who average more than 6 APG (Iggy, Anderson). PDM has 0 players who average more than 6 APG. If that doesn't tell a whole story by itself, of how the offense will run for them (iso orientated) then I don't know what will.

Conclusion:
PDM's team is missing a few things that I will exploit. English and Arenas really hurt each other on both ends of the floor. Neither are quick enough, long enough, smart enough or have the motivation to be a good defender. Both have always had the ball in their hands, and this will cause lots of problems. Arenas had one of the highest USG% in the league, and never passed the ball. He also never played off ball, and being the lazy person he is, I doubt he could. English also always had the ball in his hands. He shot horrible from 3PT range (18 of 83 career) and will have lots of trouble if PDM decides to put it in Agent 0's hands. The ball will rarely get down to their bigs, but when it does, they will face very physically strong defenders in Kemp and JO, and one of the best shot blockers and defenders in history in Eaton. They also will receive lots of double teams, because we won't need to worry about English and Arenas off-ball.

GL to PDM, but I feel I got this one.

[-Kees-]

Kees

PG: Anderson (34) / Dumars (14) / Kerr (0)
SG: Dumars (26) / Iguodala (22)
SF: Aguirre (36) / Iguodala (12) / Prince (0)
PF: Kemp (34) / O'Neal (14)
Cc: O'Neal (16) / Eaton (32) / Bol (0)

VS

SamBone

On offense....

One of SamBone's main problems is the lack of D he has outside of Ben. Pau and Roy are decent defenders, but by no means stoppers. Peja and Cassell both are primarily offensive players, and don't have the lateral quickness or skills needed to be a great defender.

Kemp will be able to punish Pau down low. He is one of the best and strongest back to the basket scorers this league has seen, and going against a softer, taller (high center of gravity) big like Pau should work to his advantage. We will use Kemp a lot, as he has an advantage, and we plan on winning this matchup, partially on this.

Whoever matches up on Aguirre will have problems. Aguirre is a very unique talent in that he can beat you so many ways. He is fast enough to zip past Peja in the fast-break and off the dribble. He has the size and great touch to back down Roy and get his points that way. And a 52% FG% will only help him even more to get his points.

If SamBone puts Roy on Aguirre, he is making a huge mistake because Peja would go on Dumars. Even if Roy is put on him, Dumars' speed, shooting (catch and shoot and off the dribble), and smarts will enable him to use a variety of moves to get open shots. Peja, at 6'11, won't be able to keep up with Dumars crossovers and jab-steps, and certainly won't be able to follow him around screens. Roy will do a bit of a better job than Peja, but then Aguirre has an even bigger advantage.

Iguodala also will see 34 minutes against Roy and Peja. I fully believe that Iggy's playmaking, driving and speed will be able to crush the slower Peja, and have the strength to beat out Roy. He will also play a lot when Anderson is out of the game, so he will be a playmaker on offense. A Dumars/Iggy/Aguirre trio running up court will cause lots of problems for defenses.

O'Neal will move more into rebounder/defender role. He will only be playing 30 minutes, giving more time for Eaton and Kemp. Eaton won't see much on offense, but can put up the occasional hook shot . Both PGs are game managers, neither one is any good on D, so expect both to do their jobs and nothing more.

On defense...

The other problem I see with SamBone's team is that when we get to defense, he is playing 4 on 5 because Wallace is a liability on O. Pau will have a size advantage, but we will put JO on him when he's in the game to limit that. With Kemp on Wallace, he can help on drives, and rest so that's he's fresh on O.

One key point I want to mention is how good my bigs actually are on D. Everyone knows about Eaton, he lead the league in just about every defensive stat there is, and had 5.6 BPG, which is a league record. What people usually don't realize is that both JO and Kemp were top 10 in their seasons in DRTG. These guys are mostly offensive players, but they are no slouch defensively. Jermaine was also 5th in total blocks, and was leader in DRB% in the playoffs. Eaton will cover Pau when he is in there. His 7'4 frame will overwhelm Pau, who is used to having a size advantage.

Unfortunately for SamBone, my best defenders are at the 2, which is his best offensive perimeter player. Roy will see almost an equal amount of Iggy and Dumars. Iggy's defensive style is very much lock-down. He has long arms, great smarts, and quick hands. I fully expect him to limit Roy to well below his averages, volume wise and efficiency wise. Dumars is also a great man to man defender. His unique quickness is what sets him apart. What I also want to mention is how Michael Jordan himself has said that Dumars was his toughest defender, and Roy does play like a poor mans MJ (Off ball, good efficiency, can do just about anything pretty well, 6'6), so this will also help my cause.

Peja will be the hardest to cover because of his size. However, we know that his offensive style (going off screens, shooting over people) is easier to defend than Aguirres. So will Peja get some points on O? Yes. But Aguirre will have a much bigger advantage because he is the better offensive player and his style of play matches up better.

Overall:
I think that SamBone has a few weaknesses that play into my team. He only has one great, "take over the game" type player in Roy, and he should be shut down by 2 of the better defenders in this whole game. Pau will face Eaton and JO most of the time, and shouldn't get near as much productivity as against smaller defenders. Another big weakness is his lack of defense. Outside of Big Ben, all of his starters are averages defenders or worse. Facing guys like Kemp, Aguirre, Dumars and Iggy, these average defenders should lose this battle. Kemp, with his strength, should pound the weaker Pau in the paint. Aguirre and Iggy will use their speed and size to beat Peja and/or Roy. Dumars will use his unique blend of shooting, slashing, smarts and dribbling to dominate the matchup. This is not even mentioning that I have Mark Eaton off my bench, who is one of the greatest defesive anchors ever, and averaged 5.6 BPG.

[Miller4ever]

Writeup against 5th Pick

Fat Lever (30)/Don Buse (18)
Vince Carter (30)/Michael Redd (18)
Shawn Marion (30)/Lamar Odom (18)
Jack Sikma (30)/Lamarcus Aldridge (18)
Dikembe Mutombo (30)/Arvydas Sabonis (18)

I plan on using a block rotation. My entire starting 5 sits at the same time.

I have a strong construction. I have two great distributors at PG, offensive firepower from my SG position, versatility at the SF, tough D from the bigs in the starting lineup and skilled offense off the bench.

The most glaring weakness of my opponent's that we will exploit is his lack of defense. Yes, Bynum and Horford have made reputations in that area, but Westbrook, Gordon, and Carmelo are going to have trouble against the gunning athletic team we have. On the opposite end, Lever and Marion will be able to mitigate their counterparts with speed and length. My team gets its hands in the passing lanes and from the weakside. There's a good blend of man and help defense.

There's also a much better fit in personnel on my team. Vince Carter isn't in the backcourt with scoring guards. He has Fat Lever and Shawn Marion, who both play off the ball. Imagine his days in New Jersey next to Kidd and Jefferson. Mutombo is great on cleanup duty, while Sikma can play in the high post, with his patented "Sikma move". We enjoy a significant size advantage as well.

[Miller4ever]

Writeup against BlackIce

Fat Lever (30)/Don Buse (18)
Vince Carter (36)/Michael Redd (12)
Shawn Marion (30)/Lamar Odom (18)
Jack Sikma (36)/Lamarcus Aldridge (12)
Dikembe Mutombo (36)/Arvydas Sabonis (12)

Regular rotations here.

This matchup is won with rebounding, defense, and athleticism. Our gameplan is to run and run and run.

THE FORMULA

DEFENSE + REBOUNDING = POSSESSIONS
POSSESSIONS + SCORING = POINTS

DEFENSE

3-2 defense suits us well. We can also play man no problem.

With anchor Dikembe Mutombo in the middle and Jack Sikma backing him up, the post is sealed up. Fat Lever and Don Buse are both pickpocket masters, and 2nd and 2st All-D selections respectively. Shawn Marion and Vince Carter play freelance with their 1+ block and 1+ steal a game, and of course Dikembe is there to turn away shots all day. Deron Williams, who is the only distributor on this team, will be disrupted, and singular post option Brad Daugherty will be taken out of the game by Dikembe. While BlackIce's team can space, there's not enough on the inside to punish. Ellis and Granger are not the best in their driving games.

REBOUNDING

Despite the presence of Dennis Rodman, BlackIce does not have the rebounding to keep pace with my team. In terms of rebound rate as well as rebounds per game, everyone else outrebounds their counterparts by impressive amounts. In fact, Sikma, who is matched against Rodman, is a great box-out artist and can hold his own. Our team advantage outpaces Rodman's relatively small advantage over Sikma.

SCORING

I'll include passing as well in this section. Our team passes well and doesn't turn it over. Fat Lever, Vince Carter, and Jack Sikma are all good passers, and Buse/Odom/Sabonis off the bench continues this. The guys who can't pass are not the guys turning the ball over.

Lever and Carter key the offense, both slashing guards who are threats to pull up for jumpers. Carter posts above 40% from deep, and on good teams, only one deep spacer is really needed. The others, with the exception of Mutombo, are all very good jump-shooters. Michael Redd, Don Buse, Arvydas Sabonis and Lamar Odom are also available as spacers. Sikma is a very solid option inside, and Mutombo is often underrated, but helping off of him is a big mistake, as he knows how to take advantage of mismatches. Coming off of turnovers, our team can also capitalize on the run.

Add the fact that my scorers are efficient and can finish plays at the free throw line and you've got a potent, versatile offensive attack. Carter can take over games and the bench supplies a very healthy dose of scoring.

OTHER

Our team enjoys a nice size advantage and a much better bench. Buse is a better passer and defender than Kirk, Redd and Odom bring more to the table than a misplaced Pressey and starting-anyways Rodman, and Lamarcus and Arvydas bring more than Rashard and Chandler. Arvydas was one of the most skilled big men who unfortunately had his prime in Europe, but his rookie year he puts up amazing numbers in very little time. 22/12/3/1.6/1.3 per 36 minutes makes him a rare kind of center. Don Buse led both leagues in assists and steals in back-to-back years, and was a deadly shooter besides. He also turned it over less than twice a game.

[sterncohen]

vs. Riotpunch

OK, I'm going to do my writeups a little differently.

I figure that (a) we can all make up some good reasons why our teams are better than others, and (b) predicting how teams made up of players from multiple different eras would work is a guessing game at best.

So I'm going to use some numbers - not mine, but the two recent sources I can find that rank players. One is the Basketball-Reference.com fan rankings, and the other is Bill Simmons' "Pantheon" in his Book of Basketball. Naturally, lower numbers are better.

Yes, the ratings are about careers, and we're working off best seasons. And no, they won't tell us much about matchups. And yes, this will come back to bite me in a later round when these numbers show that somebody else has a much better team than mine ... But let's do it anyway. Starters in the first group, backups in the second.



For me, this boils down to the two names in bold. Sam Jones and Adrian Dantley are both in the Hall of Fame, for good reason. Joe Johnson and Glen Rice aren't, and won't be.

Everything else here is arguable. Both sources rate Wilkens higher than KJ, but not by a lot. One has Laimbeer and Thurmond even, the other likes Thurmond better. I'll make the case that Blake Griffin will be better than Brand at his best, and Riotpunch can rightly claim that Brand had some great years. On the bench, my backcourt guys are stronger, but I'd take his big men over mine.

But Jones and Dantley make the difference.

[sterncohen]

vs. TMAC

See the post just above this for an explanation.



Some observations:
-- I'd rather have Lenny Wilkens than Tony Parker. Both sources agree, and so do you.
-- I'd rather have Blake Griffin than Buck Williams - but this is of course subject to "we don't know what Griffin's peak will be," and Williams had some fine years.
-- The other starters? I'll claim a slight edge, on the basis that, as good as Dandridge was, Dantley at his best was better. At the least, I'd say TMAC can't make a case that any of his guys are clearly better than any of mine.
-- Benches? Some fine defenders on both teams; I think I've got a bit more offensive firepower with Howell and Walker. On the other hand, his frontcourt size advantage would be a challenge for my team. On the whole I'd call it pretty even.

[RiotPunch]

RIOT
Kevin Johnson (36) / Norm Van Lier (12)
Joe Johnson (36) / Glen Rice (12)
Doug Christie (28) / Michael Finley (20)
Elton Brand (32) / Tom Chambers (16)
Nate Thurmond (34) / Marcus Camby (14)

vs.

STERN
Lenny Wilkens / Alvin Robertson
Sam Jones / Chet Walker
Adrian Dantley / Gerald Wallace
Blake Griffin / Bailey Howell
Bill Laimbeer / Jeff Ruland

First and foremost, this is an epic match-up.

I will be playing KJ straight up on Wilkens, and we like this match-up. We feel like KJ is far superior athletically and will be able to penetrate with relative ease on the offensive side of the ball, which immediately puts him in position to distribute the basketball. Defensively, Wilkens may give Kevin some headaches, but overall we like KJ's quick hands and instincts to allow him to hold Wilk in check.

We will be playing Joe Johnson straight up on Sam Jones as well. We feel like Joe's size and skill-set gives him an advantage to get his on the offensive side of the ball, so expect the ball to be in his hands early and often. Defensively, all you can do to Jones is try to limit what he does. Joe is a versatile guy and should slow down Jones, but Jones' quickness may allow him to penetrate, in which case we have two studly shot-blockers on the low block in Brand and Thurmond to provide help defense.

We altered our gameplan defensively here to try to take Dantley out of the equation as much as possible. This adjustment is starting Doug Christie instead of Glen Rice. Doug Christie developed a nickname during his career as a "Kobe-stopper", as he gave Bryant headaches and took him out of his rhythm time and time again. We will ask Doug to cause the same frustrations for Dantley, who is a stupid good scorer.

We feel like we have a big advantage at the PF position. In 2005, Elton Brand was a beast on both ends of the floor. Proving to be a load for anyone offensively, Brand averaged 24.7 PPG on 53% shooting. He also mustered an impressive 2.5 blocks per contest, making it a long day for whomever was trying to score on him. Blake Griffin is a player with a bright future, but we feel like this 21 year old will more than have his hands full guarding and trying to score on our 26 year old Elton.

A couple of classic garbage men duking it out at center in Thurmond and Laimbeer. We feel like Nate Thurmond can take Bill out of the game offensively, Laimbeer will be overpowered here. We also feel like Nate has a slight advantage on offense, using his brute strength to score close to the basket. The real thrill in this match-up will be watching the big boys fight over rebounds, which could have a significant effect on the outcome of the game.

We feel like we have the better team both in the paint and running the show at PG, with our weakness being exposed here on the wings defensively. This game boils down to Christies ability to limit Dantley and our bench out producing theirs, which I think will likely happen with the likes of Finley, Rice and Chambers coming off the pine.

[RiotPunch]

RIOT
Kevin Johnson (36) / Norm Van Lier (12)
Doug Christie (28) / Michael Finley (20)
Joe Johnson (36) / Glen Rice (12)
Elton Brand (34) / Tom Chambers (14)
Nate Thurmond (30) / Marcus Camby (18)

vs.

TMAC
Tony Parker / Derek Harper
Ray Allen / Willie Wise
Bobby Dandridge / Ron Artest
Buck Williams / Maurice Lucas
Yao Ming / Ralph Sampson

This is a very intriguing match-up. Our plan of attack will be scoring through our primary ball handlers, Johnson & Johnson. We feel like KJ has an advantage against Parker on both ends of the floor and although Dandridge is quite good defensively, we feel like Joe will be able to get his. Similar to Adrian Dantley, we will be giving Ray Allen a heavy dose of Doug Christie in hopes of throwing him off rhythm.

The real battle here, though, is in the trenches. Buck Williams vs. Elton Brand will be an absolute dogfight. We feel like these guys almost cancel each other out, but we are hoping Brand can give is some sort of production. As far as Yao goes, you can only do so much to stop him. Obviously, his length is superior to anything we have, but we feel like a platoon effort between Thurmond and Camby, two of the greatest defensive centers to step on the hardwood, can hold him in check.

This will be a close game and a defensive struggle, but we will come out on top because of our superior PG, SF and bench play paired with our efforts to keep a fresh defensive wing on Allen for all 48 minutes.

Good luck, TMAC!

[Snakebites]

Vs. Cellardoor

Rotation:

Terry Porter '89-'90 (33)/Michael Ray Richardson 84-85 (15)
Manu Ginobili '07-'08 (34)/Lou Hudson '73-'74 (7)/Michael Ray Richardson 84-85 (7)
Larry Johnson '92-'93 (32)/Lou Hudson '73-'74 (16)
Bobby Jones '76-'77 (32)/Rasheed Wallace '01-'02(18)
Bob Lanier '73-'74(35)/Rasheed Wallace '01-'02(13)

With Jones generally guarding Pierce most of the time.

Defense: Simply put, we've got it where we need it. Unfortunately, one of the better perimeter offenses runs into what I feel is the best perimeter defense in this entire game. Terry Porter was every bit the defender Billups is and possibly moreso, and we expect him to match Billups possession for possession and be a formidable matchup given the similar size and build the two players possess. But this isn't even the most important aspect of our defense. We have perhaps the best defensive player in this game, Bobby Jones, manning up on Paul Pierce in the majority of the minutes he is playing in. I would describe Pierce as the perfect assignment for Jones, seeing as Pierce gets it done with skill and toughness rather than with great speed. This means the tough-as-nails defender Jones should be an absolute nightmare for him to create offense against, and he'll most certainly, at the very least, reduce his efficiency. We also have a tenacious and underrated defender in Manu Ginobili guarding Cellar's number 2 option, Mitch Richmond. Richmond was a terrific all round guard but never a proven winner, and we fee that Ginobili is, at the very least, his equal in most aspects of the game. As if this were not enough, we lose nothing defensively as we head to our bench. Though Hudson wasn't known for defense, he can easily be hid on the non-offensive Michael Cooper while Michael Ray Richardson uses his size and length to admirably handles whatever perimeter threat is on the court with him.

Up front, Lanier is a rock solid help defender who lead one of the league's best defenses in this chosen year. Though he wasn't a defensive talent on the level of someone like Dikembe Mutombo, he will serve the appropriate purpose admirably in this case because our opponent doesn't have an imposing front court offense and his perimeter is matched so solidly with our extremely strong perimeter defense. Off the bench we are stellar here as well, with Rasheed Wallace providing terrific defensive help. Keep in mind that the Pistons defense remained firmly above average in the years after Ben Wallace left, with Rasheed as the teams best defensive player. Larry Johnson is the weak man in the defensive scheme, but luckily he's guarding Kevin Willis, through whom a very small part of the offense should run.

Offensively: Our offense is a finely tuned machine. Unlike our opponents, where the primary threats exist on the perimeter, we have a balanced offense with all key components represented. Frankly, I look at Ginobili's 2008 season, and I'm simply not seeing a huge difference in any noteable category to Paul Pierce's season in the same year. Both were terrific shooters and strong passers, and scored at similar volume while being elite contributors on contending teams with other all stars. He and Porter present a formidable guard tandem that has virtually everything you'd want in a tandem from shooting to playmaking ability. At worst, its equal to our counterparts.

To drive this point home, I suggest you look at Terry Porter's numbers in my selected season. You will see that, despite not being the number one option Billups arguably was, he put up strikingly similar scoring numbers and superior assist numbers. He also boasts all defensive teams and unlike Billups, actually backs up a clutch reputation with stellar playoff numbers throughout a lengthy playoff run. Even his efficiency (the thing Billups fans swear by), was similar. I think when you look at this the only reasonable conclusion to make is that Billups and Porter bring similar things to the table and do so to similar degrees.

Bob Lanier is, by a rather considerable margin, the best offensive inside player in this series. He gives us a reliable post option of which there is no equal on the other side. And that can't be valued enough. Even if you think his perimeter players boast more offense than ours (though I would argue our elite perimeter defense negates a lot of that), there is simply no way around the fact that he doesn't have a post option that equals the one Lanier brings to the table. Lanier's passing game and rock solid mid range offensive game are also extremely valuable, but in this case are just the gravy on top of what I believe is a more balanced offense.

And this assessment is without mentioning our two offensive x-factors. The first is Larry Johnson. He had an extremely short peak in which he averaged 22/10 at the small forward spot. He was a devastatingly explosive player who attacked the rim relentlessly much in the mold of a Charles Barkley. I won't argue he was as good as Barkey, but in the context of this game he brings the same sort of element to the table, and his attacking ability complements the fundamentally sound shooting, post game, and playmaking that the rest of our offensive arsenal brings to the table.

The second x factor is Lou Hudson. This player shot at an incredible 50% clip in the mid 70's, when VERY few players managed this fate. He is an elite shooter in this game who would have been picked in the first 3 rounds were he a more modern player, and for us he comes off the bench and adds a devastating offensive weapon to an already balanced offense.

Overall: We would argue that our team is simply balanced and versatile enough to handle anything Cellardoor's team will bring to the table. He has a comparably weak front court. Bogut is a nice defensive center with a solid passing game, but Lanier is simply better in just about every conceivable way. Cellar's talent is superior on the perimeter in terms of offense, but its offset by our own offensive perimeter balance and the fact that our defense will be able to keep the pressure on his perimeter all night.

Balance wins these games, and we have a terrific team both up front and on the perimeter (on both ends of the floor), while Cellar has a stellar (but checked) perimeter and a relatively impotent front court to go along with it.

[Snakebites]

Vs. Lukekarts

Rotation:

Terry Porter '89-'90 (33)/Michael Ray Richardson 84-85 (15)
Manu Ginobili '07-'08 (34)/Lou Hudson '73-'74 (7)/Michael Ray Richardson 84-85 (7)
Bobby Jones '76-'77 (32)/Lou Hudson '73-'74 (16)
Rasheed Wallace '01-'02(18)/Larry Johnson '92-'93 (32)
Bob Lanier '73-'74(35)/Rasheed Wallace '01-'02(13)

Offense: I begin my writeup with offense this time around because, against Luke's team, I feel that it becomes a rather critical element that will ultimately decide this matchup in my favor.

Why? Luke has not built a defensive team. I do not like phrasing things so bluntly and absolutely, but in this case it is a simple and undeniable truth. My team is both powerful and balanced in its offensive attack with a terrific offensive backcourt by any measure and a combination of front court players that bring post play, shooting, and other elements to the team. Offensively, my team gets even more dangerous off the bench, with the aggressively athletic Larry Johnson hitting the floor along with the elite shooting of Lou Hudson. Their virtues are outlined in more detail in the previous writeup, so I won't expound upon them in excess here.

But to turn to Luke's team, he has 3 players in his lineup (2 of whom play critical defensive positions) who simply were not known for playing particularly good defense, including two that were known as downright liabilities in that regard. The third, Parish, isn't a poor defender in and of itself, but is poorly utilized at power forward. He wasn't as great a help defender as my opponent tries to make it sound, but even if he was, he will be poorly utilized guarding Rasheed Wallace, who will be spending much of his time out of the paint. This leaves Walt Bellamy to anchor the defense down low.

Hmmm. I had planned on going easy on Bellamy, but given my opponent has decided to declare him the equal to my rightful first rounder, let the justified assault begin: Bellamy is, by a healthy margin, the WORST defensive center in this game. The numbers support this notion whole-heartedly. Despite playing some time alongside Gus Johnson, a player known for defensive ability, the teams in which Bellamy was the star were consistently among the league's worst. He was widely known as a one dimensional player and this notion is supported by his teams' abhorrent record in this regard. Lanier was a much more well rounded offensive player than Bellamy, and with his passing, similar post play, and terrific jumper, he simply has a healthy advantage in just about every respect despite Bellamy's grossly inflated numbers that were the product of a faster 60s pace AND the team's decision to run the offense through him (which, btw, had undeniable disasterous results). There is a reason why he was picked so late, and its not because he's underrated. He was a one dimensional post player who was positively allergic to defense and Lanier will be able to exploit this, not to mention the rest of my team, who will be able to run rampant in the paint. This team is very weak defensively, and this is particularly evident in the most important place- the interior. Our spacing coupled with his weak defense means guys like Lanier, Johnson, and Ginobili will be able to post up, drive, and do anything they want in the paint. This, coupled with our outstanding outside shooting (from Porter, Ginobili, Sheed, and Hudson) and great overall passing means our balanced offense will be efficient and effective through ALL 4 quarters, pretty much regardless of which players are on the floor.

The only player on his team I would describe as a "stellar" defender is Mo Cheeks, with Debusschere being solid (though I would argue in this context too slow to be a small forward and too short to be a power forward defensively). Cheeks was a solid defender but he also has a definite size disadvantage against Porter which should, at the very least, limit his ability to disrupt shots. Porter was a big game performer with a solid playoff reputation and we are confident that he will bring enough to the table in this matchup, especially given that the rest of Luke's starting lineup is frankly unable to stop anyone on my team.

Defense: I will close with defense simply because there isn't really much about my defense that will change between this matchup and the previous one. I firmly believe that my team's defensive balance speaks for itself. My opponent tried to undersell my defense, but the reality for his team is that I have a very good to great defender starting at each position on the floor. My guards have the size and tenacity to match up effectively with our counterparts. In fact, I can't think of anyone else available in this game that I would rather have guarding Reggie Miller than the lengthy Ginobili, and Porter's size will present an interesting challenge to Mo Cheeks.

Bobby Jones will, naturally, be guarding James Worthy. Worthy was an undeniably effective offensive player, and while my opponent is correct in asserting that there is no data speaking to his effectiveness against Worthy, this one of the best man defenders in NBA history and again, there is no player we'd rather have guarding Worthy than Jones. Similar can be said for Rasheed Wallace, who's man defense against mid range oriented players like Chris Bosh is well documented. We see Parish as having a similar role in this offense, so we have confidence that he will be effective here. Off the bench, Michael Ray Richardson can also effectively guard either guard position with tenacity.

I look at luke's team, and, while I do see a nice collection of playoff "moments", I'm not really sure I see the passing needed to effectively run the offense through all of these players. Cheeks is the only player on this entire team known to ever create anything for teammates, and he has a tall order. Bellamy was used to getting the ball down the floor nearly every single time down the floor. Not only was he a terrible free throw shooter, but he was also a near legendary offensive black hole who anchored among the worst offenses in the league during his "peak". Parish and Worthy were both ideal second/third option players who benefited from playing with phenomenal playmakers (Bird and Magic, respectively) who may have a hard time finding a role in this context. Miller was a primarily off the ball player who should be useful in that regard, but again, offers Cheeks no help in terms of playmaking.

Overall, we're confident that we have an elite defense in this competition and that our opponent's offense, while possessing some impressive scoring numbers, does not have the playmaking and balance to gain the upper hand here, particularly not when they've paid for that scoring dearly on the defensive end, where our genuinely balanced offense (complete with shooting, passing, slashing, and great post play from the game's best center) should be able to have its way consistently against a relatively porous defense.

Best of luck.

[lukekarts]

VS. Snake - Rotation:

Mo Cheeks [38] / Hal Greer [10]
Reggie Miller [36] / Hal Greer [12]
James Worthy [36] / Dave DeBusschere [12]
Dave DeBusschere [26] / Horace Grant [22]
Robert Parish [32] / Walt Bellamy [16]

(Cheeks/Miller/Worthy/DeBusschere/Parish to close out games....)

Player Stats / Season Selected

First of all, good luck Snakebites.

Game Plan

Rather than adjust defensively to contain my opponent. the plan here is very much to structure offensively to dominate. That involves starting a powerful front court lineup of Walt Bellamy and Robert Parish. The idea will be to take an early lead, benching Bellamy for the 4th quarter, allowing the DeBusschere/Parish front court to close out the game.

The game will flow through 4 offensive options; Bellamy, Parish, Worthy and Miller; with Mo Cheeks facilitating an excellent passing game and finding these guys in their most efficient spots. The offensive balance is impeccable, with Bellamy operating a solid post game, Parish offering a mix of post game and amazing mid-range (and as a reminder to those reading this, Parish's 55% mid-range game was Dirk Nowtizki-esque). Worthy will operate close to the basket and work well of inlet passes from Cheeks, whilst Reggie is probably the best shooter of all time. Cheeks, Miller, Worthy and Parish in particular, learned to sacrifice 'stats' on deep offensive teams, in favour of a winning culture, so that should translate well here, with each willing to defer.

I'd also like to add a point on Bellamy here too - in '62 he came into the league as a flat out dominant player; leading the league in scoring efficiency, 2nd in WS and OWS. Whilst he faded badly as his work ethic let him down; at the time he entered the league he was regarded second to only Wilt Chamberlain at his position, and was a highly coveted player. For a single 'peak' season'; I've selected his most impactful season where he was most motivated to play well.

Closing out the big games should come remarkably easy for these guys too. Not only are they all supremely efficient - especially relative to their respective eras; Reggie Miller and James Worthy had a penchant for taking over in big games and hitting big shots. Millers career playoff averages are higher than his regular season (+2ppg, +2 PER), many will remember his 25 pts in the 4th quarter vs NYK in 94; or the following (selected) season, where he rallied for 8 points in 8.9 seconds against defensive stalwart John Starks, in NY. 'Big Game James' Worthy too, earned the accolade for Finals MVP in 1988, as he dominated Detroit with the only Triple-Double (36-16-10) recorded in the Finals, in a decisive game 7. There's no question as to who Cheeks will defer to in the 4th quarter...

Defence

To briefly summarise my team's defence, I will be relying on the dominant length on the interior (Bellamy and Parish @ 7 ft apiece), and excellent help defence from Parish, to force Snake's team to shoot from the perimeter. Cheeks - All Defensive 1st - should do an excellent job on Porter, whilst Miller will be a tough opponent for Ginobili in the backcourt, his extra length in particular making things difficult for Manu. This will vastly limit Snake's scoring efficiency from the perimeter, with my team's superior size becoming a real issue. Worthy will have little containing to do with Jones, who was largely a complimentary defensive player rather than a scoring threat; leaving Parish to cover Sheed and Bellamy on Lanier.

To close out games, Parish will switch onto Lanier, whilst DeBusschere will be inserted and largely make Sheed a non-factor.

On the boards, I expect Bellamy to more than hold his own with Lanier; whilst Parish should easily control the rebounds against Sheed. Off the bench, DeBusshere was also a great rebounder; averaging 13rpg when he didn't play alongside Willis Reed.

Bench Play

A quick word on my bench play, Hal Greer - one of the greatest shooters of his era, a clutch playoff performer and Champion, will easily go toe-to-toe with either MRR or Lou Hudson when they enter the game; DeBusshere offers a game changing defensive player that Snake doesn't possess on the bench, whilst Larry Johnson isn't enough of a threat that either Parish or DeBusschere will have any worries when he enters the game.

Summary

My team will go at Snake's hard through the first 3 quarters, throwing a wealth of offensive options that will be tough to contain. Snake's best individual defender Jones is not enough of a game changer to be a real concern, particularly as Worthy's track record against good defensive players, such as Pippen, suggests that he's tough to limit. Cheeks, Miller and Parish are more talented and more efficient than Porter, Ginobili and Rasheed, and inidivually line up as better defensive players. Bellamy and Lanier will largely cancel one another out, and by the time the 4th quarter rolls around, I'll be able to rely on guys like Miller to close the game whilst my defensive lineup, lead by the efforts of DeBusschere, really grind the game down.

[lukekarts]

VS. Cellar - Rotation:

Mo Cheeks [38] / Hal Greer [10]
Reggie Miller [36] / Hal Greer [12]
James Worthy [36] / Dave DeBusschere [12]
Dave DeBusschere [26] / Robert Parish [22]
Robert Parish [16] / Walt Bellamy [32]

Player Stats / Season Selected

First of all, good luck Cellar.

Game Plan - as above

Defence

Matching up with Cellar will again be done on a position by position basis, the notable exception being DeBusschere, who will split time between Willis and Pierce when he comes in off the bench, moving Worthy onto Kirilenko when he sees minutes alongside PP. DeBusschere is a real game-changing defender and will test Pierce to his fullest for those 20mpg, making him work for every point, challenging every shot.

In the interior, Parish and Bellamy will go head to head vs Willis and Bogut, the latter whom I think will really struggle in this matchup. Bogut is fairly limited offensive player and doesn't have the experience against comparable sized centers; Bellamy should dominate him on the boards and with Parish also helping on defence, Cellar's front court will struggle to score efficiently. Kevin Willis will also add to the woes, with him never being a dominant/efficient offensive player; he was also not a great help defender.

To the perimter, and here's where things get interesting. Firstly, I love the matchup of Worthy and Pierce, particularly as both posted roughly 20/5/5, both were FMVP's, and both were in balanced 3-man offenses. I think for the most part, both players performed equally and will cancel each other out, but it should be fun to watch.

Miller on Richmond, as with the front court, leans the matchup further in my favour. I like Richmond as a player, but to me he's a poor man's Reggie Miller. Miller was good defensively and more efficient offensively. Billups vs. Cheeks is perhaps Cellar's most clear cut offensive advantage, but here he's faced up against arguably the best defensive point guard he could be, negating some of that impact.

Bench Play

Cellar's reliance on two defensive players for his entire bench play leaves a clear cut advantage to my bench, in terms of ability to change the game. Hal Greer was widely regarded as one of the best shooting guards of his era, racking up All NBA appearances, All Star appearances, and winning championships in the process. His excellent jump shot will be tough even for a guy like Cooper to handle. DeBusschere meanwhile offers a similar style impact to Kirilenko, albeit to a much greater extent. A true high character guy, he brought winning to the New York Franchise through his passionate, hard-nosed defensive intensity, which earned him 6 All Defensive 1st appearances.

Summary

Cellar's team has a lot to prove. Only Billups and Pierce have Championship winning experience, compared to Cheeks, Greer, Worthy, DeBusschere and Parish. Notably, his offensive play is weak in the front court, particularly compared to Bellamy and Parish; the backcourt is comparable in shooting but lacks the peak impact of Miller. There are no game-changers on the bench. I suspect it will still be a tight series but I'm full of confidence my team can prevail here, particularly given the leadership and intanglibles advantage I bring with Cheeks, DeBusschere and Parish, who will fight for every point.

[SamBone]

if i get power restored, i will get something up on tuesday. crazy ass snow storm in october knocked out our power for over 36 hours. if i get power i will do a writeup

[SamBone]

.

[poopdamoop]

VS Kees

'06 Gilbert Arenas (36)/'94 Nate McMillan (12)
'05 Bruce Bowen (28)/'93 Drazen Petrovic (20)
'83 Alex English (36)/'95 Detlef Schrempf (12)
'89 Larry Nance (32)/'95 Detlef Schrempf (12)/'76 Dave Cowens (4)
'76 Dave Cowens (32)/'83 Tree Rollins (16)

PG: Anderson (30) / Dumars (18) / Kerr (0)
SG: Dumars (16) / Iguodala (32)
SF: Aguirre (36) / Prince (12)
PF: Kemp (32) / O'Neal (16)
Cc: O'Neal (16) / Eaton (32) / Bol (0)

GL to my opponent.

OFFENSE

I think our offense will dominate here. Despite what my opponent has said, Arenas has no problem sharing or playing off the ball. He managed to distribute the ball just fine with Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison, two 20 ppg scorers, on his team at the same time, and both players had their best offensive seasons with him as their PG. I think he can dominate Kenny Anderson in a head to head matchup, and even Dumars will have trouble with him. Arenas scored 29ppg on 58 TS%, a feat that only 12 other players have ever done before, and he's more than willing to share the ball, even if he's a score 1st PG. Bowen is a perfect compliment to him, a defensive swingman that can hit the 3 and spread the floor.

English will be our secondary ball handler. Again, contrary to my opponent's beliefs, English has the playmaking and ball handling ability to make plays for others if Arenas is trapped. I'm not asking him to be a point forward, but he'll have opportunities to create for himself and others.

My big men should have a large edge here as well. Cowens and Nance are elite shooters for their size, and JO and Kemp will have to stay at home on them, leading to easier penetration from Arenas and English. Cowens will also have the chance to get offense run through him, as he is a very good passer for a big man (he averaged the 2nd most APG on the 76 Celtics championship team). Off the bench, Schrempf and Petrovic are elite shooters, and should provide a lot of spacing and offensive punch for when English or Arenas are getting rest.

DEFENSE

Our team will do an excellent job defensively as well. I'm not too worried about Anderson, he was an extremely inefficient scorer (TS% of .49), so we'll put Arenas on him and let him sag off to give up the jumper. Dumars is a great defender, but he's not an explosive scorer, and he only made 0.6 three pointers a game, so we'll put Bowen on him to try and completely take him out of the game. Aguirre is the main threat here, and he's a great scorer, but Alex English is a very good defender. I consider him much like Shawn Marion (long, athletic, picks up tons of steals and blocks but played on a fast paced, weak defensive team). Aguirre is also known for being a ball stopper on offense, and having him waste time trying to go one on one against English is fine by me. If for some reason Aguirre is dominating, we'll simply switch Bowen onto him.

Kemp is a good scorer, but he's not a guy that can create a lot of offense by himself. To make matters worse, Aguirre spent a lot of time in the post, which will create spacing problems for both Kemp and JO. Nance is the perfect defender for him, an equally athletic, shot-blocking monster, and I think the two will play to a draw, which is all I need. Cowens will absolutely shut down O'Neal, who was never an elite scorer to begin with. Cowens was an All-Defensive 1st teamer in the era of guys like Kareem and Wilt, and scouts at the time say he played them as well as anyone in the history of the game. Jermaine O'Neal should be no problem compared to them.

Kees doesn't have much scoring off the bench either. Iggy is a nice, versatile player, but his season high in points was only 27, and he only broke 20 points 11 times in his chosen season. I see no way Iguodala is going to provide this elite bench play that my opponent expects from him. Prince is another nice role player, but is only good for defensive purposes, and will only play 12 minutes. Eaton is a joke on offense, probably one of the slowest players of all time, and we can essentially forget about him to focus on other players. I also have an elite defensive C in Tree Rollins I can use for a few minutes every game to add more shotblocking and muscle on the inside, and I have arguably the best ball thief of all time in Nate McMillan off the bench (his steal % of 5.8% is by far the highest of all time, no one else even comes close). McMillan can be thrown onto Anderson, Dumars, or Aguirre, as he was capable of defending PG-SF.

OVERALL

I think my team is superior offensively and defensively. My opponents only elite scorer is Aguirre, and he was a guy that needed the ball all the time, and scored primarily through isolation play and ball-stopping. Meanwhile, Alex English was an equally prolific scorer, but a better all-around player as well. There's a reason English was considered the much better player while the two of them were at their peaks in the mid 80's. My other elite scorer, Arenas, is surprisingly efficient, and has proven he can play well with other big scorers. Nance hitting mid-range J's, Cowens spreading the floor and crashing the glass, and Schrempf and Petrovic off the bench complete my elite offensive attack, while my opponent has decent scorers in Dumars, Kemp, and O'Neal, but no one that can really take over a game.

Defensively, we've got an elite perimeter defender in Bowen, and another good one in English, and both should do just fine against Aguirre. Dumars may be able to slow down Arenas, but then he's forced to play Aguirre on English, who should win that matchup fairly easily. His bigs are good defenders, but my bigs can shoot and score well enough that they can't be left alone from outside, opening up the lanes for my perimeter players.

Finally, Cowens might be the best leader in this competition. I generally hate using intangibles, but there's enough evidence to believe that Cowens' ferocity and intensity was actually a key part of the success of those Celtic teams. With a leader like him, I believe the rest of my players will respect his credentials and willingness to be a true part of the team. Everyone on my team has a role they should be very happy with, and I think the talent and cohesiveness of my team should help it prevail.

[poopdamoop]

I'm not gonna do a writeup for SamBone, since it doesn't seem fair if he's not able to get anything up, but I do wanna make a few points.

- Cassell, Roy and Stojakovic are not great defenders, though Roy is ok. I'm sure one of them will be hid on Bowen, but that means that either Arenas or English will have a huge advantage against their respective matchups.

- Wallace and Gasol is a great frontcourt, but my bigs are best when they're not in the low post, so Wallace won't be able to roam on either Nance or Cowens. This should really help open up the paint and negate his biggest advantage.

Defensively we won't cross match perimeter players, but we'll put Nance on Wallace, allowing him to roam for weakside help. Cowens is the perfect defender for Gasol, has enough quicks and strength to stay with him, as well as the intelligence to stay down on fakes and play fundamental D.

Matchups:

PG: Gil should outplay both Sam and Rondo. Cassell isn't a good defender, and Rondo is a terrible shooter, so no matter who he has in the game we can exploit, either by attacking them or playing off them. Nate McMillan will be in the game to harass Cassell or Roy.

SG: Bowen will certainly have his hands full with Roy, but I think he can do a solid job on him and at least make him work for his shots. Petrovic's offense off the bench will make either Roy or Jones focus their efforts defensively to try to slow him down.

SF: Peja is certainly the better shooter, but English is more prolific, as well as a better rebounder, passer, and defender. He should have a large advantage here. Josh Smith is a guy who's more suited to help defense, but his man D leaves something to be desired. Both English and Schrempf should be able to score on Smith while being able to play off him on D.

PF: Lots of guys to talk about here. I'll play Cowens straight up on Gasol or Love whenever possible, as neither of them are big or strong enough to overpower him. Gasol is the only real post threat here, but Cowens is one of the best man defenders of all time, and I'll have Nance ready for weakside help most of the time. Schrempf will get minutes here to drag his bigs away from the basket as well. Love is a very weak defender, and I'll give Schrempf and Nance plenty of chances to attack him, while Smith will be drawn outside by my bigs and their shooting.

C: Big Ben is only playing 25 minutes a game, but while he's playing I will have Nance all but ignore him in order to help on Gasol or Roy. Defensively, whoever he guards will be stationed in the mid range area, and my main bigs are good enough shooters to keep him honest. Tree Rollins will get minutes here as a rebounder and defender as well.

[5th pick sucks]

I'm really sorry I couldn't get on the past few days. I've had some problems I'd rather not share, and my internet also gave out yesterday. So once again I'm sorry.

[CellarDoor]

For Snake: line-up (tentative)--

Billups(34)/Cooper(14)
Richmond(34)/Cooper(14)
Pierce(38)/Kirilenko(10)
Willis(30)/Kirlenko(18)
Bogut(35)/Okur(13)

Terry Porter '89-'90 (33)/Michael Ray Richardson 84-85 (15)
Manu Ginobili '07-'08 (34)/Lou Hudson '73-'74 (7)/Michael Ray Richardson 84-85 (7)
Larry Johnson '92-'93 (32)/Lou Hudson '73-'74 (16)
Bobby Jones '76-'77 (32)/Rasheed Wallace '01-'02(18)
Bob Lanier '73-'74(35)/Rasheed Wallace '01-'02(13)

Defense
Defensively we’ll elect not to crossmatch anyone. PGs on PGs, SGs on SGs, etc. We feel confident in our ability to limit some of his biggest threats as we don’t have a bad defender on any of Snake’s scoring options. Lanier and LJ see two of our best defenders for large spans of time in AK47 and Andrew Bogut. AK47 has the size and speed to match-up with LJ and bother him and generate turnovers. In the early 2000s he was one of those do it all defenders who defended all shapes and sizes from Pfs like Duncan to wings like Kobe. Ginobili, Snake’s other big scorer Ginobili is up against Richmond and DPOY Michael Cooper. We all know Cooper is a terror on defense, but to make sure Richmond doesn’t go underrated you have to look at Jodan’s quotes about Richmond being one of the toughest guys to guard him. His positional defense and strong base will help keep Ginobili out of the lane and off the scoreboard.

Offense
Offensively, this is quite obviously a perimeter oriented offense, and with Snake’s election to put Jones on Pierce we feel like the lack of help defense outside of Lanier will allow our multifaceted wing attack to shine. What’s more, separate from most traditional wing offenses you’ve got players who can put the ball on the floor (and will) to a high degree and get into the lane and/or to the line. We’ll be taking advantage of the hot hand. The great part about my guys is they’re all terrific shooters and capable with the ball in their hands. They’re also willing passers and have experience on offensively balanced teams (Pierce/Allen/KG, Run TMC, and Billups/Hamilton/Sheed) who come with the ability to turn it on in the clutch as evidenced by the two finals mvps. Willis will function in a Bobby Jones sort of role picking up the scraps, and we’ll let Bogut take some shots in iso, but not a lot. Okur will only come in when Lanier is in and will make an early appearance. His purpose is pretty strictly to for Lanier outside of the lane and onto a shooter (45% from three).

Rebounding
Rebounding is muddy water here. I’ve got a huge advantage at the top with Willis over Lanier who’s only .02% in front of Bogut, but when you add in the next tier and the perimeter guys Snake closes the gap quickly. I believe we’ll maintain and advantage simply because of our team’s range the advantages he holds on the perimeter are either mitigated or they’ll cause problems quickly if they crash too quickly or we do get the board and a kick out.

Efficiency
This is where we feel like we pull away. Each team has three top scorers. Ginobili, Johnson, Lanier for Snake and Billups, Pierce, Richmond for me. Ginobili leads the way in TS at a ridiculous 61.2%, but then Johnson is ar 57.4% and Lanier, his 20ppg C, is down at 54.8%. Conversely my top 3 guys are at 60.2, 59.1, and 58.2. I also enjoy higher offensive ratings and better turnover percentages across the board. In short, if you accept that we’ll edge Snake out in the rebounding battle and we’re being more efficient with our possessions, then we should take this series.

[CellarDoor]

For Luke: line-up (tentative)

Billups(38)/Blaylock(10)
Richmond(24)/Cooper(24)
Pierce(36)/Richmond(12)
Willis(24)/Kirilenko(24)
Bogut(36)/Willis(12)

Mo Cheeks [38] / Hal Greer [10]
Reggie Miller [36] / Hal Greer [12]
James Worthy [36] / Dave DeBusschere [12]
Robert Parish [24] / Dave DeBusschere [24]
Walt Bellamy [36] Robert Parish [12]

Defense:
We'll match up straight up again. Pierce/AK47 have the requisite size and skill to match-up with Worthy, and with a distinct lack of passing from Luke's primary scorer (Bellamy) we're confident Miller will be limited by his own team in addition to Richmond's underrated defense (Jordan called him the toughest guy he faced. Our worst defender is going against Luke's fourth option, so I'm not too concerned about any issues Willis will face.

Offense:
Lucky for us, Luke has pretty much no defenders of note, and no outstanding help defenders. Our team is built on penetration, and Bellamy's epically bad defense will let Pierce, Billups and Richmond run free. Bogut's above average passing game is going to be a great boon here too. He's a competent offensive player who will be able to take advantage of Bellamy to a fair degree and put us in a position to use his skills to either set others up or score himself.