ATL -1 Player League Playoffs (Round 2, send me your drops)

[-Kees-]

Send who you are dropping to Keeslinator@gmail.com by 12 PM EST (noon) Sunday, Dec 4. This way, I can post who everyone is dropping at the same time, and no one can have an advantage by posting who they are dropping after their opponent.

Conference 1:

A:
JoebobLollipop (-Kidd) VS Miller4ever (-Cowens)

B:
Snakebites (-Moses) VS bastillon (-Durant)

C:
poopdamoop (-Stockton) VS TMACFORMVP (-Barry)

D:
MJallday59 (-Ray Allen) VS DavidStern (-Bird)


Conference 2:

E:
BlackIce (-Drexler) VS Warriorfan (-Magic)

F:
CellarDoor (-Wilt) VS dockingshed (-CP3)

G:
Keeslinator (-Gilmore) VS lukekarts (-Marques)

H:
GrantHill (-Pistol) VS RiotPunch (-Malone)



Quarter Finals:

Winner of (A) VS Winner of (B)

Winner of (C) VS Winner of (D)

Winner of (E) VS Winner of (F)

Winner of (G) VS Winner of (H)

Semi Finals:

Winner of (AB) VS Winner of (CD)

Winner of (EF) VS Winner of (GH)

Finals:

Winner of (ABCD) VS Winner of (EFGH)

[Miller4ever]

Side note: make sure your rosters are updated on the roster page.

[lorak]

Side note: make sure your rosters are updated on the roster page.

Should we also chose one season for every player?

[Snakebites]

Side note: make sure your rosters are updated on the roster page.

Should we also chose one season for every player?

That's useful for people who like to crunch numbers, but that's become less popular in the last few games. I'd say yes, still.

[lorak]

I think it's important not because some people like to crunch numbers, but because players are different at different stages of career. For example if someone picked Wilt, he could have great scorer, great passer or great defender but he can't have Wilt who's doing all these things, because such Wilt never existed.

[Snakebites]

^Yeah but two players rarely have two distinctly different phases of their career that are equally meritous.

In this game almost nobody is going to pick anything but the versatile version of Wilt, for instance. I usually assume a specific area of someone's career, but the exact year sometimes depends on an individual's preference.

[lukekarts]

Kees should you and I send ours to TMAC or someone?

[Snakebites]

Kees should you and I send ours to TMAC or someone?

Kees already let me know who he's dropping.

You can send yours to me if you like.

[-Kees-]

Payton (38) / Cheeks (0) / Arenas (10)
Christie (29) / Thompson (19)
Erving (38) / Marion (10)
Webber (37) / Marion (11)
Wallace (37) / Willis (11)

VS lukekarts

Billups [38] / Greer [10]
Kobe [38] / Greer [10]
English [34] / Oakley [14]
Dirk [38] / Daugherty [10]
Zo [38] / Daugherty [10]

I want to wish Luke good luck, he has put together a very competitive team that I am eager to write on how I will beat it

I am going to write on a few points, not the typical "offense, defense" or "PG, SG, SF ect"

Matchups:

Erving on Billups
Payton on Kobe
Christie on English
Webber on Dirk
Wallace on Mourning

Webber VS Dirk:

When people think of this matchup, they immediately think Dirk has a big advantage. I don't think so at all. Looking at their stats, it does not show any huge advantage to Dirk:

Reg. Season:
Dirk - 23.0/7.0/2.6 on .517 FG%
Webber - 27.1/11.1/4.2 on .481 FG%
Playoffs:
Dirk - 27.7/8.5/2.5 on .485 FG%
Webber - 23.3/11.5/3.1 on .388 FG%

A couple things to point out. 1) Webber did considerably better passing the ball both in the Reg Season and Playoffs. He was always a good passer, while Dirk isn't a black hole, he isn't going to be setting anyone up either. 2) Webber also did considerably better rebounding. 7 to 11.1 and 8.5 to 11.5. 7 RPG isn't just below average, it is BAD for a star big playing the minutes Dirk got (34 MPG). 3) The only advantage Dirk has on him in any category consistently, is efficiency. Only a few % points in the regular season doesn't really make a difference, especially when Webber wins all the other major categories. In the playoffs, both of the FG%'s on the players goes down. 39% is bad, but he was playing against a Suns team, who had Marion on Webber a lot, and Marion was one of the better defenders that year. Plus, the playoffs is only a handful of games, in the bigger picture, the FG%'s were much closer.

I guess the point I'm making isn't that Webber is a lot better than Dirk, it's that the stats are so close and comparable, that I wonder if Dirk even has a big advantage over Webber at all. Just the fact that it can be argued (even if it isn't true) that Webber is better, says a lot about the fact that Dirk isn't on a different level and won't have a big impact compared to Webber.

Perimeter Defense:

Christie on English - English was a guy who would drive a lot, and shoot mid range a bit. He could not hit a three at all, and this will allow Christie to sag off a bit, and play him closer to the basket. I want to point out how good Christie was on D. In the selected season (02/03) the Kings were 2nd in the league in DRTG. Christie was the leader of that. It's not like Webber, Bibby and Peja did a whole lot on D, and Divac was mostly a rim protector. Christie consistently took the opponents best offensive player and shut them down. He was something like 3rd in DPOY votes, and for a good reason. He is underrated on RealGM IMO, because he really anchored the 2nd best D in 03 from the 2 guard spot, along with Divac. The lack of spacing English brings will also allow Christie to double team Dirk, Zo or Kobe if they are posting up.

English was also more of an iso guy than a point forward, like Luke plans on using him for. A measly 4.8 APG and 19.5 AST% (to put in perspective, a true point forward like Lebron had 7.2 APG, 38 AST%, or Iggy, who had 6.3 APG and 26.4 AST%) aren't going to scare anyone if he is used as a point forward type. Not to mention that he got those numbers totaling against every defense he faced, and they are sure to go down when he faces off against a very tough defender in Christie.

Payton on Kobe - Payton is the best defender under 6'8 in the history of the NBA. There is no denying it. Putting him on the 3rd best perimeter scorer in NBA history (behind Bird, Jordan; Magic was more of a passer, but you know that already) will create an interesting matchup. This isn't going to be a game where Kobe dominates, at all. Payton will make him work for every bucket, every shot, every drive. Payton is one of the best at putting constant pressure on the opponent, moving his feet, creating steals, and never giving an inch of space. There is no way Kobe will be able to drive by Payton, forcing him to use his turn around J. Payton has a long wing span, good jumping ability and is very smart, and won't let Kobe beat him. I very much doubt Kobe scoring over, or at, his averages in this matchup.

Another point I want to make, is when Payton faced Jordan in the 96 Finals. Jordan had the lowest scoring average, lowest PER, 2nd lowest FG% and 2nd lowest APG in the 96 Playoffs, compared to the 5 other titles Jordan won. With Payton guarding Jordan, and putting him to some of his lowest playoff numbers of his title runs, he should be able to greatly impact the scoring that Kobe produces, who is a "Jordan-lite" if you will.

General Defense:

Erving on Billups - Billups' main advantages on O were his shooting and his post up game. His post up game is lost by putting the much bigger and longer Erving on him. He does become a shooter in the offense that he is in, and we are glad for that. Erving will sag off him a bit, but keep him in arms length. Erving was a very good defender himself, and I expect that Billups will be taken out of this game almost completely.

Wallace on Zo - I don't see an advantage either way here. Wallace was one of the better jumpers for his day, but still had the strength to match up with the Shaq's of the early 00's. I don't think that the 1 inch of height that Zo has on Ben will make a difference at all, especially with Ben's jumping ability. I also don't need him to have a complex offensive game. Erving/Payton/Christie/Thompson will drive, and if Zo comes over, then Ben can get the ball and dunk. Simple as that. He isn't going to create anything, but he is a power dunker that will make you pay if you sag off of him.

Overall I think my team is one of the best on the defensive end in this whole game. Using English as a point forward will limit the offense just that much. Dirk doesn't have an advantage over Webber on the offensive end. Wallace will limit Zo to his averages or below. We also have 2 of the top perimeter defenders of this game in Payton and Christie, in which we will matchup on Luke's best wings. There is no reason to believe that Luke's offense will be pretty, efficient, or highly effective. Christie can sag off of English when he doesn't have the ball, to help down low. Wallace has the strength and jumping ability to slow down Zo, and Erving will be able to lock down Billups with his size and skill.

Rebounding:

Just a quick point I want to make here. In most of these games, everyone rebounds so well that it is too close to call. But this is different, I do have a distinct advantage here.

Payton was a better rebounder than Billups. Not by a ton, but 4.2 RPG VS 3.1 RPG (5.1 to 3.4 in playoffs) is a difference.

Christie and Kobe were near equal on the boards.

English was no slack on the boards, but wasn't exceptional either. Erving is one of the better rebounding SF the league has ever seen. Again, not a huge advantage, but it is there.

The big advantage is at the PF position. 7 to 11.1, and 8.5 to 11.5 in the playoffs, there is no getting around that Webber has a big advantage here. Because of Dirk's style of play, he doesn't crash the boards hard, while Webber, who still plays on the perimeter a lot, can get a decent amount.

The C position also has a slight edge to Wallace. 11 RPG to 13 RPG in selected seasons. Not to mention that Wallace had 7 10+ RPG seasons, while Zo only had 4. Wallace's career average is also 10.0 RPG, while Zo's is only 8.5. I know we aren't comparing careers, but my point is that the 11 RPG probably is because of an increase in MPG.

General Offense:

We will run out offense in four main ways: 1) Payton/Erving handling the ball, and doing a Pick and Roll or Pick and Pop with Webber, 2) Erving iso, 3) Webber iso, and 4) Payton driving the ball.

A problem I see with Luke's team is that 3 of his 5 starters are average on D. Billups is big, and was good against smaller PGs, but he will be the smallest one on the floor the whole time he is in, taking away any advantages he would've had. English wasn't bad, per say, on D, but wasn't a stopper like today's stars of LeBron or Wade. Dirk is not a good help defender at all, and although solid on man-to-man D, Webber is a good passer and can set up guys if Dirk is blocking his shots or slowing him down scoring the ball.

Erving will exploit English a lot in this matchup. He has a deadly turn around shot, good perimeter moves and can finish better than almost anyone. He will be the focal point of my offense against Luke and I expect him to dominate.

Billups' main weakness was his quickenss. Payton will challenge that throughout this series. He can drive past him, then have many options: -shoot a floater, -dunk, -get crafty around the rim to lay it in, -pass to the open Christie, -pass to the open Wallace if Zo comes to help or -pass to the open Erving if English comes to help.

It is also a flaw to put his 2 best defenders on my 2 worst offensive players. Kobe on Christie and Zo on Ben will allow my other scorers to attack Luke's weaker defenders.

Playmaking:

I have a feeling someone will bring this up in their ranking, so I want to cover it. Dr J, in his early years, had the ball in his hands quite a bit and found the open man a lot. He also played off ball really well, which is something that separates him from LeBron. Payton isn't a great passer, but he can do it for sure. He ran the pick and roll well, and driving and dishing to Hawkins and Schrempf is something he did frequently. Christie was a key part in one of the most fluid offenses the league has ever seen. Webber is regarded, with Pau and some others, as the greatest passing PFs ever. So, like Luke, I don't have a PG that does everything, because it hasn't been proven to work, but I really have 4 guys who can orchestrate the offense and keep the ball moving.

Conclusion:

My team and Luke's team are build very differently. Luke has a more offensive team, with Zo being the only starter that is more focused on D than O. My team is built on D, which is very much different than Luke's. On offense, Luke has used his best defensive players on my 4th and 5th options, allowing my best scorers to do their work at will. Billups cannot contain Payton when driving, no one could stop Erving, and English won't be the first, and Webber's versatile offensive game will allow him to do quite a bit against Dirk, even if it isn't scoring. On defense, I have my top 2 defenders against Luke's top 2 scorers, which will limit them a lot. Zo's average post game will also disappear with lack of touches, and great post D from Wallace.

[Miller4ever]

vs JBL

Porter (36)/Price (12)
Moncrief (36)/Roy (12)
Hill (36)/Granger (12)
Wes Unseld (36)/Horford (12)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (36)/Horford (12)

Offense:
-Get Kareem the ball.
The offensive gameplan is pretty simple. With a vast array of distributors this team will move the ball with great vision and timing. The main offensive focal point will be Kareem, who can sky-hook it for 58% from pretty far out. There are many weapons with which to punish opposing teams for trying to double Kareem, besides his own ability to find open players. Wes Unseld will be setting monstrous picks, effectively creating mismatches for the extremely efficient shooting of Moncrief and Porter. Grant Hill has a skillset that makes him the prime guy to benefit off of cuts to the basket, and his athleticism, speed, and finishing ability should make him an enormous threat while Kareem is in the post. The gunners come alive with Price, Roy, and Granger each bringing some shooting off the bench, with Roy's 37% from deep being the lowest average of the bunch. The bench is better for this team.

Defense:
-Man defense.
Porter can take Harper, Moncrief will essentially silence Earl Monroe, Grant Hill will check Lebron (underrated defender when he reached the NBA), Wes Unseld will keep Bob Pettit inefficient (stay frosty), and Kareem in his prime will be able to mitigate any lesser center.

Rebounding:
-Up and down.
With Hill and Lebron, the frontcourts come up pretty even (although I would posit that Unseld is better than Pettit's inflated numbers, and Kareem is a better elite rebounder than the Admiral), but the backcourt of Harper and Monroe cannot deny Porter and Moncrief, who are not only great guard rebounders, but smart rebounders.

[BlackIce]

vs. Warriorfan

Williams (38)/Hardaway (10)
Artest (28)/Hinrich (20)
Wilkins (38)/Artest (10)
Barkley (40)/Roundfield (8)
Russell (40)/Eaton (8)


No Magic? It's gonna take magic for him to pull this out. Russell/Barkley is light years better then Parish/Mchale. Tiny/Gervin/Cunningham can't space the floor and Mchale won't have room to operate in the post. I really don't have a lot to say about this matchup tbh, I'll add more later.

-Defense: Zone defense, Warriorfan doesn't have the shooters to punish me, and with Russel in the middle and a DPY on the perimeter our defense is one of the best in this league. Barkley will have plenty of help containing Mchale. Williams will take out Tiny, Artest will suffocate Gervin and Nique will play Cunningham straight up.

-Offense: Run the team through Russel and his elite passing. Russel can find shooters, kick it out on the outlet pass. Barkley will be our main scoring option obviously. He'll get his and then some on the good but not great defender he is facing in Mchale. Nique has all the freedom in the world to do his thing, and Artest will work the post and sit on the 3 point line when appropriate.

Conclusion: Weak spacing and little scoring outside of Gervin and Mchale. BIG advantage on the frontline, and a more balanced team on both ends.

[JoebobLollipop]

vs Miller
PG: Harper(36)/Jackson(12)
SG: Monroe(36)/Jones(12)
SF: James(38)/King(10)
PF: Pettit(36)/Brand(12)
C: Robinson(38)/Camby(10)

Matchups:
Harper vs Porter
Monroe vs Moncrief
James vs Hill
Pettit vs Unseld
Robinson vs KAJ

Offense:
Most teams would fall apart without a floor leader in Kidd. However, having LeBron as a forward allows me to play him at point forward and become my primary ballhandler. Compared to Hill, LeBron is light years ahead. While HIll might have been an underrated defender as my opponent alludes to, he never sniffed a DPOY award while James was 2nd in 09. Furthermore, HIll has never been able to carry a team. In his best year with Detroit, the Pistons only managed a 45-37 record.While this may be attributed to the lack of talent on the team, LeBron was able to carry an awful Cavs team to the Finals in 07 while having leading the team to several great seasons after. LeBron has also been a much better scorer. Moving to my backcourt, Harper is an extremely good shooter who LeBron will be able to get great looks to and Monroe was a top scorer during his career. King off the bench will ghive me awesome scoring boost. He has also shown the ability to fit in with other teams with stars, like the Knicks of the 70's. Pettit was an awesome rebounder who despite playing in the same time period as BIll Russell, was able to win one championship and two MVPs. Robinson was an awesome center who unlike Kareem, also was manage to pick up a huge amount of steals for a center. Unlike Kareem, Robinson also didn't need a top PG to get him the ball, where as KAJ was blessed with Magic and the big O.

Defense: My point guard tandem of Jackson and Harper were much more durable than those of Miller's, both ranking in the top 9 of all time minutes, with jackson being 2nd. They will be able to hound the ball from Miller's PGs. Monroe was also a very good defender as was Jones, and they should able to shut down the smaller SG in Moncrief and the injury-prone Roy. LeBron is an amazing defender and he and King should easily shut down HIll. Unseld was not a great scorer and Pettit and Brand should easily handle him. At center, I'm facing one of the top centers of all time, and yet Robinson and Camby are both amazing defenders and should mitigate his offensive prowess.

[RiotPunch]

TEAM RIOT
PG - Isiah Thomas (38) / Rod Strickland (10)
SG - Jerry West (38) / Eddie Jones (10)
SF - Manu Ginobili (36) / Peja Stojakovic (12)
PF - Andrei Kirilenko (31) / Chris Bosh (17)
Cc - Nate Thurmond (34) / Yao Ming (14)

VS.

GrantHill
Robertson (40) / Parker (8)
Baylor (38) / Cooper (10)
Prince (35) / Turkoglu (10)
Stoudemire (30) / Odom (13)
Ewing (40) / Ilgauskas (8)

Offensive strategy:
Look for Isiah Thomas and Jerry West to use their quickness against taller, much slower defenders. We are at our best with Zeke driving the lane, attracting defenders and kicking the ball out to West on the perimeter. Also, we have a lethal pick and roll game, even with Malone out, whether it be Isiah/Thurmond or West/Thurmond. Manu will struggle a bit with Prince, but again, he has quickness as an advantage. Prince will either play up on Manu and get driven on or sag off and get torched by Manu's jumper.

Defensive strategy:
This was our primary focus throughout the drafting process. Every single guy that I drafted plays well on both ends of the floor. I have two pesky All-NBA 1st teamers at both guard positions in Thomas/West, and although we have a size disadvantage, we feel like we can accumulate steals at a high rate. Also, if Robertson/Baylor try to post up my guards, we have fantastic help defense coming from AK47 and Thurmond, two exceptional shot blockers. If that strategy doesn't work, we have 2 more elite defenders with better size waiting on the bench in Eddie Jones and Rod Strickland. We like Kirilenko to frustrate the hell out of Amar'e and really limit his production. Thurmond/Ewing is a very cool match-up, and we really don't see either one getting the better of the other.

Conclusion:
It really boils down to size vs. quickness. You can only limit Oscar and Elgin so much, but we have two truly legendary defensive players to take them out of their element. Defensively, we just don't see any way their guards can contain mine, and that will be what leads me to victory. They will have to rely on their guards shooting over mine, since I believe we have Stoudemire taken care of with AK47. GrantHill has a nice team, no doubt, but we like this match-up in our favor.

GL, GH.

[bastillon]

vs Snakebites

Pressey 32 / Blaylock 16
TMac 36 / Iguodala 12
Iguodala 22 / Worthy 26
McAdoo 30 / Sheed 16
Duncan 36 / Sheed 12

no Moses, interesting call. Snakebites will probably use Larry Nance more now. I took out Durant because Iguodala is a better perimeter defender (vs Marques) and I'm gonna attack Nash on defense anyway (with Pressey post up) to make him tired on offense. lack of post scoring really hurts Snake here. Worthy gives me the extra scoring punch from the bench. Nash is the one who I can't stop, but hopefully I'll make him work on defense and Pressey's gonna do a good job on him - as a fan of Nash I know that the best defenders against him were SFs: Bowen, Batum and most notably - Prince.

[lorak]

MJallday59,
what seasons do you chose for your players?

[lukekarts]

lukekarts

Billups [38] / Greer [10]
Kobe [38] / Greer [10]
English [38] / Oakley [10]
Dirk [38] / Daugherty [10]
Zo [38] / Daugherty [10]

*reserving the right to make adjustments if Kees makes any adjustments.

vs. Keeslinator

Payton (38) / Arenas (10)
Christie (29) / Thompson (19)
Erving (38) / Marion (10)
Webber (37) / Marion (11)
Wallace (37) / Willis (11)

Firstly, good luck Kees, thanks for pulling together the game and I'm looking forward to our first matchup

Defensive Summary

Gameplan: Single coverage for the most part; Zo given the freedom to slack off Wallace (at his discretion) to help on Erving; Kobe given freedom to switch onto Payton instead of Christie if Payton starts doing damage.

The key thing for me in this matchup, is that whilst Erving will likely get his points; the game is effectively 5 vs 3 at the offensive end for 29mpg. This is normally ok in a league where a 'big 3' is a rarity, but in a star studded game it may have an impact. Ben Wallace is a good defensive presence for Kees but Zo will have no difficulty in guarding him - Ben's peak season 9.7ppg were largely off offensive rebounds and put backs. This gives me confidence that Zo will be able to impact the game with his help defence with confidence - and '99 Zo was one of the most impactful defensive players of all time.

On top of this, Kobe's assignment - Doug Christie, was only really good for hitting open threes - something which a (deserving) All Defensive 1st player in Kobe will be offering him rarely.

This makes the matchup of Billups on Payton largely inconsequential: Payton was a good offensive player but not a dominant 'take over games' type, and Billups defence is good enough that Payton won't do more than his average 19/7.5. Equally, whereas Payton could often post-up smaller guards, Billups only gives up an inch and actually has the larger/stronger frame, negating a lot of Payton's advantages against guys 6'2 and under. Payton's 3 point range wasn't particularly damaging either, so a lot of his points will come off cuts inside where Zo will be waiting. I also referred to earlier that if Payton does become effective on Chauncey, the adjustment made on the fly will be for Kobe to cover Payton. Christie will pose no threat whomever is guarding him.

Offensive Summary

Offensive execution here will be focused mainly through Kobe and Dirk; with English operating as a point-forward and Billups spreading the floor on the perimeter. Zo will be active in the Center, operating in the pick and roll with Kobe (a role he excelled in with Hardaway) and working the ball in the post over the shorter Ben Wallace. Equally, Kobe will be able to operate the pick and roll with Dirk, and Dirk can feed of Kobe when he drives to the basket.

Knowing full well how dominant Dirk is in a playoff format what is pretty clear is that Chris Webber will have no way of containing him. Dirk will lure Chris out of the paint giving more freedom for Kobe and English to drive inside, where Ben Wallace will be forced to decide whether to help - leaving Zo open - or continue to cover Zo. Either way, both Kobe and English are smart enough and good enough passers to know whether to pass to Zo, or Dirk; or continue their drive to the basket.

Billups' will have the hardest time being effective whilst guarded by Payton, so his key role here will be to keep Payton busy and draw fouls. There will be times where Payton gambles for steals and leaves Chaucey open for threes, and in this series Chauncey is the clear standout shooter from three, where he took 4.8 per game and shot for a staggering 43.3% clip.

Finally, ball movement will become a huge asset for me here too. I am not point guard dependent - an ingredient key to Championship teams of the past 20 years. Billups, Kobe & English are all good at moving the ball and creating for others; meanwhile Dirk has always been a solid passer and commits few turnovers.

Conclusion

Kees has some key defensive players but a relatively poor offensive team that will be relying too much on Erving to bail them out. Whilst Erving may score 30ppg across the series, my overall team offence will be better which should lead to more efficient production. The key factors here will be the combined execution of Dirk and Kobe in the clutch, whilst Zo will be given freedom to abuse Wallace in the paint all series long.

[GrantHill]

PG: Oscar Robertson / Tony Parker
SG: Pete Maravich / Michael Cooper
SF: Elgin Baylor / Tayshaun Prince / Hedo Turkoglu
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire / Lamar Odom
C: Patrick Ewing / Zydrunas Ilgauskas

vs. RiotPunch

Robertson (40) / Parker (8)
Baylor (38) / Cooper (10)
Prince (35) / Turkoglu (10)
Stoudemire (30) / Odom (13)
Ewing (40) / Ilgauskas (8)

[lukekarts]

Just going to do a rebuttal, based mainly on the points Kees raised and also as I incorrectly assumed some of the defensive assignments.

1. Dirk vs. Webber Dirk is the key factor offensively for my team, and I honestly feel the gap between the two players is pretty significant. If I be really generous and brush aside Webber's woeful playoffs ( -2 PER in the playoffs career avg) and 42.7% TS%, we see that Webber's 27ppg was still not especially efficient at 51.6%. On the other hand, Dirk's were 61.2% (reg) and 60.9% (playoffs) which is a huge difference.

2. Rebounding. Webber's 11 was reflective of his team - he played with Divac (8.6) and Pollard (6). On the flipside, Dirk's 10-12 rebounds in the playoffs in his earlier career were as a result of playing with fewer good rebounders - in 2011 he was playing with Chandler (9.4) and Marion (6.9) and Haywood and Kidd - all very good rebounders. I'm not saying Dirk is a great rebounder, but he's not atrociously bad either, especially when it counts.

3. Christie on English - I'm fine with this as English is probably my least important piece in this matchup. Also just to clarify, I'm using English as a point forward but for the most part the ball will be with Billups or Kobe. As long as English brings defensive attention he's doing his job.

4. Spacing - interestingly Kees mentioned spacing but I can't think of any better spacers than Billups, Kobe and Dirk so English's mid-range limits are absolutely no issue.

5. Payton on Kobe - Payton may be the best defernder under 6'8 in NBA history but great offensive players like Kobe don't get slowed down. I have desperately been searching for the article with actual quotes, but in essence this one explains it (I recall reading it a couple of years ago) - where Payton acknowledged Kobe was unguardable http://20secondtimeout.blogspot.com/2009/01/gary-payton-and-chris-webber-explain.html

6.

There is no reason to believe that Luke's offense will be pretty, efficient, or highly effective.

This is the area I completely disagree on. An offence led by Kobe and Dirk is going to be massively efficient and pretty, I'm sure everyone would love to see it. Billups and Zo are the ideal players to sit at either end, high IQ guys who don't demand the ball and are vocal leaders.

Adjustments

Based on Kees' writeup/gameplan the only real adjustments I would make is putting Kobe on Payton for longer - perhaps 20-25mpg but not the full game so as not to wear him out. In the clutch, the ball will go to Dirk more; and Kobe will guard Erving for 10 mpg (noting Kobe only gives up 1 inch and actually has the bigger frame).

Defence vs Offence

Kees main focus in his writeup has been defence which I understand completely - the team is very defensively focused. But speaking of my own team's defence, it is anchored by a Defensive Player of the Year who blocked 4 shots a game a contested countless others, who played in an era where Shaq was dominant yet made the 1st team ahead of him. Kobe Bryant has always been a great defender (until post-09 at least) and again has the IQ and ability to lock down players / make them work hard at particularly crucial times, such as Erving in this matchup. Billups, Dirk and English are all high IQ guys that are good enough to fit into a solid defensive scheme.

Kees biggest weakness will be offensive execution. Payton is not massively efficient nor does he draw fouls (4.2 FTA / 56.4% TS%). Christie is nothing but a spot up shooter... who won't be left open. Webber is a relatively inefficient high volume scorer (6.6 FTA / 52% TS%) and Wallace has no offensive game to speak of. That dependence on Erving will be a real killer if he gets put under pressure by Zo's help defence, particularly as he won't have anyone reliable enough to dish out to. On the other hand, Billups (6.4 FTA / 60.2%), Kobe (8.5 FTA / 56.4% TS%), English (6 FTA / 56% TS%), Dirk (8.8 FTA / 60.9% TS%), Zo (7.6 FTA / 59.6 TS%) draw fouls and score so much more efficiently. Technically speaking, I have 5 of the 6 best offensive players in this matchup.

[-Kees-]

I'll do a rebuttal as well.

I want to say something, just before I go point by point to defend my team. This is rather general, but if there is only 1 thing people get from reading my whole writeup and rebuttal(s), it's this: Mine and Luke's teams are fairly equal in talent. However, my team is top notch on D, while decent on O, Luke's is top notch on O, while decent on D. I realize this is generalizing, but title teams have always had great D. I'm not saying defense wins championships, because it doesn't, balance does, but (again being general), having my team being more defensive I think gives just another edge in my direction.

1. Dirk vs. Webber Dirk is the key factor offensively for my team, and I honestly feel the gap between the two players is pretty significant. If I be really generous and brush aside Webber's woeful playoffs ( -2 PER in the playoffs career avg) and 42.7% TS%, we see that Webber's 27ppg was still not especially efficient at 51.6%. On the other hand, Dirk's were 61.2% (reg) and 60.9% (playoffs) which is a huge difference.

I dont think there is a huge difference at all in Webber and Dirk.

Using the 4 categories we have been using (not saying there is other important stats, but we have been using these so far), which are PPG, APG, RPG and efficiency.

PPG - equal. Dirk only put up 23 PPG in the reg season, while 27.7 in Playoffs, and Webber was 27 in Reg season, 23 in playoffs
RPG - Strong Webber advantage. Say what you want about who was on whos team, but I think Haywood/Chandler/Marion was pretty equal to Foster/Divac/Peja in terms of rebounding. Webber got rebounds because he was a good rebounder. If Dirk wanted to get rebounds, and could, he would've. 7 RPG is BAD for a star PF, no other way to put it, and 8.5 RPG in the playoffs isn't something to brag about either.
APG - Strong Webber advantage. Webber was a great passer, always has been. He worked on the block a lot, and if he couldn't beat his man for some reason, he always found the open guy in the corner or slashing to the basket. Dirk isn't a "black hole" type by any means, but he wasn't ever a great set up guy either. He is an average passer, nothing more, nothing less.
Efficiency - Strong Dirk advantage. Dirk was the more efficient player, not denying that. Both in the playoffs and reg season.

Tallying them up:

Webber - II
Dirk - I
Equal I

So Webber wins in more categories, PLUS Webber had the higher PER (24.7 to 23.4). These games are using reg season stats, with playoffs as a secondary source, from what I can tell from past games. The fact that you have to use Dirk's playoff stats to have pretty much any advantage (other than a small efficiency win) shows that it was very close in the reg season.

Again, I'm not saying Webber is better than Dirk, I'm saying that there are a lot of reasons to believe that Webber is on the same level, and that Dirk won't dominate him and out score him like against more of his matchups in RL.

2. Rebounding. Webber's 11 was reflective of his team - he played with Divac (8.6) and Pollard (6). On the flipside, Dirk's 10-12 rebounds in the playoffs in his earlier career were as a result of playing with fewer good rebounders - in 2011 he was playing with Chandler (9.4) and Marion (6.9) and Haywood and Kidd - all very good rebounders. I'm not saying Dirk is a great rebounder, but he's not atrociously bad either, especially when it counts.

Say what you want about stats and such, but Dirk has gotten older, which is another valid reason why he isn't rebounding as well. Whichever is the truth, we don't know, but throwing up these stats doesn't help much because we have no way to know why they got those stats, whether it was because of a better rebounding cast or worse rebounder.

3. Christie on English - I'm fine with this as English is probably my least important piece in this matchup. Also just to clarify, I'm using English as a point forward but for the most part the ball will be with Billups or Kobe. As long as English brings defensive attention he's doing his job.

I don't see how the words "point forward" and "not having the ball" can coexist here. By saying he is the point forward, it means he takes over some of the PG's responsibility, but he is the size of a SF. PG's run the offense. Something doesn't add up. AND if you want to put the ball in Kobe's hands, great, you now have to face one of (or the) best defender you can put on him, or you can give it to Billups, and have his blocking lanes clogged by Ervings long arms and lack of post game because of Ervings size. Plus if you give it to one of them, Christie can sag off because English is horrible from 3PT land, so it becomes even harder for your other guys to penetrate.

4. Spacing - interestingly Kees mentioned spacing but I can't think of any better spacers than Billups, Kobe and Dirk so English's mid-range limits are absolutely no issue.

Here is what I said:

The lack of spacing English brings will also allow Christie to double team Dirk, Zo or Kobe if they are posting up.

Never did I say Kobe, Dirk and Billups weren't good spacers. I said English isn't, so when he doesn't have the ball, Christie can roam and help on other guys, limiting their effectiveness. Christie is VERY smart on the court, and will know when to help in the post and get steals.

5. Payton on Kobe - Payton may be the best defernder under 6'8 in NBA history but great offensive players like Kobe don't get slowed down. I have desperately been searching for the article with actual quotes, but in essence this one explains it (I recall reading it a couple of years ago) - where Payton acknowledged Kobe was unguardable http://20secondtimeout.blogspot.com/2009/01/gary-payton-and-chris-webber-explain.html

Kobe's average in 09 was 26.8 PPG. There were 19 games where he scored 20 or less points (23%), and 27 games where he shot 40 FG% or less (33% of the games) (averaged .467 FG%). If Kobe "doesn't get slowed down" then why, on almost 1 out of every 4 games, did he score less than 7 points below his scoring average? And why did he shoot almost 7 %points down from his average every 3rd game? Every player can be slowed down, by using a great man-to-man defender (Payton, one of the best ever) and a great defensive team behind him (Erving, Christie, Wallace all exceptional on defense). Kobe won't explode for huge games. He won't be unstoppable, or ever get what he normally does. There is no reason to think that he will continue to average those numbers, when he got them averaging against every D in basketball (both good and bad Ds), against one of the best perimeter defenders ever with an insane defensive team behind him.

Adjustments

Based on Kees' writeup/gameplan the only real adjustments I would make is putting Kobe on Payton for longer - perhaps 20-25mpg but not the full game so as not to wear him out. In the clutch, the ball will go to Dirk more; and Kobe will guard Erving for 10 mpg (noting Kobe only gives up 1 inch and actually has the bigger frame).

Quick point I want to make. Erving played bigger than he was, he was the top jumper of his time, had very long arms, and was good at creating space. Not saying he will do well against Kobe, but putting Kobe on him for 10 MPG isn't going to change a whole lot.

Defence vs Offence

Kees main focus in his writeup has been defence which I understand completely - the team is very defensively focused. But speaking of my own team's defence, it is anchored by a Defensive Player of the Year who blocked 4 shots a game a contested countless others, who played in an era where Shaq was dominant yet made the 1st team ahead of him. Kobe Bryant has always been a great defender (until post-09 at least) and again has the IQ and ability to lock down players / make them work hard at particularly crucial times, such as Erving in this matchup. Billups, Dirk and English are all high IQ guys that are good enough to fit into a solid defensive scheme.

Even though you do have a DPOY, and ONE other good defender, that's actually not that great in a full on ATL. Quite a few of the teams have DPOYs and more than 2 very good defenders. Dirk isn't a good defender, there is a reason why EVERY single one of the other players on his team had to be full on defensive players for him to win a title - because he's not a good defender. He had better teams in the past, but since they werent as good defensively, they didn't win. Billups honestly isn't anything special, overrated in his DET days, and English is sorta good, but not great in an ATL league. They can fit into a good defensive system, but I'm not sure you have that. There are a few other C's in this league that are much better defenders than Zo, and while Kobe is a very good defender, 2 players who are very good, but not the best on D, don't make a "solid defensive scheme", so the 3 weaker defenders will be exploited.

Kees biggest weakness will be offensive execution. Payton is not massively efficient nor does he draw fouls (4.2 FTA / 56.4% TS%). Christie is nothing but a spot up shooter... who won't be left open. Webber is a relatively inefficient high volume scorer (6.6 FTA / 52% TS%) and Wallace has no offensive game to speak of. That dependence on Erving will be a real killer if he gets put under pressure by Zo's help defence, particularly as he won't have anyone reliable enough to dish out to. On the other hand, Billups (6.4 FTA / 60.2%), Kobe (8.5 FTA / 56.4% TS%), English (6 FTA / 56% TS%), Dirk (8.8 FTA / 60.9% TS%), Zo (7.6 FTA / 59.6 TS%) draw fouls and score so much more efficiently.

[/quote]

If you don't leave Christie open, AWESOME. That's what we want. Now we have 4 on 4, and one of your top defenders is sitting on the wing staring at Christie as he poses a threat.

Payton will have no trouble blowing past Billups. Billups was never quick on D, and Payton can easily challenge him there. Say what you want about Payton, but he led a team to the Finals as the main option on offense, so he must be doing something right.

Honestly, I don't mind running the offense through Erving. English will be on him most of the time, who is nothing special on D. I expect him to attack English through jump shots and drives, and will be able to create shots for himself and others.

Also, a few points on Zo. You are acting like he was this insanely good defensive C. He was great on D, but he wasn't top 5 all time on the list of defensive Cs. Just off the top of my head, on D I'd take Hakeem, Kareem, Shaq, Big Ben, Eaton, arguably Dwight, Wilt and Gilmore all over him on D. It seems like you are trying to say he makes up for all the mistakes on D of your other players, but I just don't see how a not top 5 defensive C can anchor a D with mediocre defense around him and expect to shut down my offense in a league where the talent level is so high.

Zo also had major durability issues. Only playing a bit over half the season (46 games) in the selected season makes me think he had a fluke year because he got hot for what would be half the season. He also wasn't very efficient compared to other C's. He shot 51 FG% that year, where Dwight, who is usually considered on a similar level to Zo, shot 59 FG% last year, 61 FG% the year before, and 57 FG% the year before that. So if Zo can only shoot 51 FG% when his main offense is near the rim, then he was not efficient at all.

And if you think that you have 5 of the 6th best offensive players, wow. There is no way I take Billups over Payton on O, and Webber is better than Billups as well as Zo. I could see top 5 of 8, not 5 of 6.

[bastillon]

Dirk is actually one of the better defensive rebounders in the league in terms of playoff play. it's ORB% that hurts him, but that has more to do with his perimeter oriented style of play than his actual skills. Dirk was surely a good rebounder overall. also, ranking players on seperate categories of boxscore stats doesn't really make sense to me.