sterncohen wrote:
Game plan:
-- I’m going to change my starting lineup for this series, with Villanueva at PF and Lee coming off the bench. Neither Okafor nor Nene is going to do a good job stepping out to the three-point line to guard Villanueva, and I want to open up the paint for Rondo, Durant and Ginobili to penetrate. Any of them are capable of going to the rim, kicking out to an open 3-point shooter, or getting the ball to Howard near the basket.
-- We’re going to run. You’ll see below that we have a major rebounding advantage; we also have a starting lineup that is younger, faster, and more athletic than our opponents. So we’re going to push the pace and go for as many easy baskets in transition as possible.
-- Also, Balkman will get some time on the floor, assigned to glue himself to Pierce, just as Brewer is to stay all over Allen when he’s on the floor. With Howard in the paint, we can challenge my opponent’s scorers out at the 3-point line and try to disrupt the passing lanes.
Why we’ll win:
(1) We’re going to destroy them on the boards. Howard and Lee are first and second in the league as rebounding, but the difference between the teams is even greater than that. Here are the rebound rates (2/26, from Hollinger’s stats on ESPN) of the starting lineups, followed by the reserves.
Our guys: Howard 22.2, Villanueva 15.3, Durant 9.6, Ginobili 10.3, Rondo 9.8 (average = 13.4)
Their guys: Nene 14.3, Okafor 19.3, Pierce 9.4, Allen 5.6, Billups 4.4 (average = 10.6)
That’s 25% better .
Our guys: Randolph 16.3, Lee 18.1, Balkman 13.4, Brewer 6.8, Nelson 6.3 (average = 12.2)
Their guys: Bargnani 10.3, Collison 15.2, Wallace 12.1, Terry 4.2, Daniels 4.1 (average = 9.2)
And that’s 30% better.
Breaking down rebound rate like this is flawed logic if you ask me. Dwight gets all his rebounds cleaning up the boards pretty much on his own, same can be said for Lee. Lee play for pretty fast paced teams that shoot a lot of jump shots.(NY is 2nd in Pace in the entire league). NY is also 27th in terms of team rebounding ability, so it's not like Lee has a lot of competition for those boards. On a team with Dwight, I don't consider Lee a guy capable of getting those boards. I see him being redundant with Dwight on the court, as neither can stretch the D much, and don't exactly have a diversified offensive arsenal. Also, you can't play him with Z-Bo or CV, because the defensive short comings will be simply too much. In other words, if Lee's on the court, he won't be the perceived positive you think he is. In fact, I could argue that with Dwight on your team, and lack of quality defenders in your frontcourt, Lee in this series will be a nonfactor.
Our bench is much stronger. Here’s a PER comparison of the key bench players (Hollinger again):
Randolph 20.1, Lee 18.8, Balkman 16.6, Brewer 16.1, Nelson 20.9 (average 18.5 – that’s an above average NBA starting lineup)
Bargnani 13.8, Collison 14.5, Wallace 17.8, Terry 20.7, Daniels 12.4 (average 15.8)
We have very large advantages at C, PF, and PG; when the second units are on the floor, we’re going to outscore Vintage substantially.
Nelson trumps my backup PG in Daniels no doubt, however I'll take Wallace over Balkman with EASE, despite them having comparable PERs. Gerald Wallace is a superb starter in this league, Balkman is a borderline role player. They aren't close, which in itself show the flaw in using PER for this. what my bench offers, is a variety of skill sets. Bargnani stretches the D when I need to, Collison provides defensive hustle, and Daniels is simply a veteran "band-aide" when Billups needs to rest. Terry and Wallace highlight my bench. Both are efficient well rounded capable starters.
Another note about PER, is that a lot of your players need a lot of PT to acquire those numbers. You can't really expect Z-Bo to get those kind of numbers in 10 minutes, he'll be a virtual non-factor, and will probably gripe about a lack of playing time.
I don't see your "large" advantage at PF and C.
Neither Lee or Z-Bo are true defensive C, so i'll score at ease on them.(So your "huge bench" advantage here becomes a non-factor)
And I could argue that my advantage at SF and SG trump your advantage at PG.
Barnani and Okafor aren't as offensively or statistically flashy as Z-Bo and Lee, but they actually fit together, and don't necessarily need certain circumstances to produce what they are being asked to produce(Z-Bo with playing time, and Lee with a horrible rebounding team). Also, Okafor is a better rebounder than Z-Bo, and based on rebound pct, is also better than Lee.
All that’s left is a comparison of the starting lineups. I’ll do this one head-to-head:
Howard 26.1 vs. Nene 19.1 (+7.0)
Villanueva 20.6 vs. Okafor 18.7 (+1.9)
Durant 21.4 vs. Pierce 17.9 (+3.2)
Ginobili 23.3 vs. Allen 17.8 (+5.5)
Rondo 19.4 vs. Billups 19.5 (-0.1)
Again, you can see the flaw in using PER. Durant and Rondo are SUPERB young players, and they are the future, however for THIS year, for THIS series, would you even consider taking them over Pierce/Billups, which is what your PER argument is trying to say? Of course not. The way I see it, I have an advantage at PG,SG,SF and a better rounded player at PF. You have an advantage at C, as Dwight is well, Dwight, but Nene is nothing to scoff at, and at the very least will slow Dwight down.
as good as Allen is, Ginobili is better, on both ends of the floor; and we hold our own everywhere else
Based on PER? Sure, if you want to ignore that Ray Allen scores more Points, on better efficiency. Not to mention that Ray Allen plays against starters, while Manu gets the luxury of playing against 2nd units, which he DOESN'T get to do with your team...that is something that should be accounted for. Also that Manu is "better" but Ray has been healthier this year, and has scores without using the ball as much as Manu. Manu is 5th in Usage rate, while Allen isn't even in the top 20. Allen is also first in TS% FT% and 3pt% in the whole leagueI don't see this perceived obvious advantage Manu has over Ray Allen, care to enlighten me?
Put that together with the rebounding advantage and the bench advantage
Both advantages are merely large on paper. your team is a better rebounding team no doubt, but you overstate that having Lee and Dwight on the same team gives you some kind of mega advantage, since neither can play together, and any player you pair with Lee puts you at a disadvantage.
Now onto my gameplan.
This will be rotation for this match-up.
Billups(30)/Terry(8)/Daniels(10)
Ray Allen(33)/Tery(15)
Pierce(35)/Gerald Wallace(13)
Gerald Wallace(20)/Okafor(15)/Bargnani(13)
Nene(30)/Okafor(15)/
Game Plan:I look at Stern's team, and see a lacking in defensive big men(besides Howard of course). I'll look to exploit this by running a slow, half court offense.
On defense, it's going to be rather difficult to stop that many offensive weapons, but it won't be the daunting task stats may lead you to believe.
I will be starting Gerald Wallace this series, and he will be a HUGE part of my game.
He is a superb defensive player, notably as a weakside helper, which will help when Dwight catches the ball down low. Now mind you, he won't stop Dwight, but he can aide in at least trying to contain him.
With Rondo not exactly lighting the world up from outside, and much better at slashing, I'm going to give him any outside shot he wants. I'm gonna play a triangle and two defense, with Pierce,Allen, and Gerald Wallace face guarding Durant, CV, and Manu, giving them absolutely no spacing for jump shots. Having Nene or Okafor(who ever is playing at the time) take on Dwight one on one is risky to say the least, but I think I have the overall team defense, and weak side defenders to compensate for that. Billups will zone, able to help should Dwight catch the ball down low, too far for Nene or Okafor to handle him. However both Nene and Okafor are superb defensive players, so I don't feel Dwight will completely take over.
If you figure that 4 out of 5 of Stern's starters have usage rates over 25, and not one of my starters has a usage over that number, Stern's going to have a lot of touches to compensate for, touches that simply won't be there If I slow the pace down.
Durant -
28.2Howard -
25.9Ginoboli -
27.9Villanueva -
28.7Rondo -19.7
Billups - 23
Allen - 19
Pierce - 24.8
Gerald Wallace - 20.9
Emeka Okafor - 19.5
Nene - 18.2
Fast breaking hasn't never had success against a half court offense in the post season, and I'm hoping that trend continues.
I will rely on Billups and Pierce to take over this series, as though Stern's team is talented, they are young, and veteran savvy and championship experience trumps youth with one player with experience(manu).
Why I'll win:Offensive fluidity - Nobody on my team necessarily needs a lot of touches to be effective, Billups and Pierce have the largest Usage rates, but given their roles on their teams, it's a given. the rest of my starting 5 don't have very high usage rates at all, and will run an offense together much better. I have my doubts about if Stern's team will get all the touches his team will undoubtly need.
defensive, or lack thereof - CV and Durant are hardly worldly defenders, and though Ginoboli is passable, it's not like he's elite in anyway. I'll look to exploit this, as though Dwight and Rondo are superb defenders, there's only so much they can do to make up for the shortcomings.
With all that said, I feel that my veteran intangibles, savvy and experience, coupled with more team chemistry, and a superior strategy that has shown better results in the post season ( defense and half court offense vs. a fast breaking team) I will win this series.