HCRT FINALS: CellarDoor vs SamBone Due APRIL 1
Posted: Tue Mar 9, 2010 4:24 am
Cellar Door VS Mascot
AND
SamBone VS r0cd0gg
Goodluck
AND
SamBone VS r0cd0gg
Goodluck
Sports is our Business
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CellarDoor wrote:Williams(40)/Lawson(8)
Jax(16) /Mayo(32)
Lebron(30)/Jax(18)
Boozer(38)/Lebron(10)
Perkins(38)/Hibbert(10)
Key head to head match-ups:
Wallace v. Lebron
Wallace is someone a lot of people are talking about as a defensive team candidate this season, and that’s true. What gets lost a lot of the time is that it’s because of his help D and rebounding. He’s not more than slightly above average on-ball, which he better be on at all times. In the last three seasons Lebron has averaged over 50% shooting against the Bobcats including a high of 52.3% this season. It’s also worth noting that for a while each game, either KG or Landry will be trying to cover Lebron. Good Luck.
Wallace has been particularly hot from 3 (over 40%) against the Cavs this season which has lead to a solid 20ppg average. For those who have watched the games, the two I saw Crash actually played pretty well offensively and was very active on the boards while Lebron roamed on Help D. This won’t be the case on this team with Jax starting. Jax will be on Wallace, Lebron on Rondo, Williams on JR Smith. This will allow Lebron to play passing lanes and help down on Dwight and still recover on the worst shooter outside of Dwight and Perkins on either team. Rondo’s shooting will also create problems for Dwight. Entry passes are already a highly risky pass. Rondo excels on the Celtics because they don’t have a high volume post option to pass into. Without a jumper, Lebron can sag off Rondo and force him to try to throw it over his head to Lebron or drive around him.
Williams v. Rondo
Similar to Wallace, I find Rondo’s on-ball defense to be overrated. He gambles a lot and relies on his bigs to compensate for it because he can in Boston with KG and Perkins behind him. Luckily, Rondo still has KG and now has Dwight behind him. If Rondo stays at home, he should effectively keep Deron to around 16-18 points a game on his normal efficiency.
Jax/Mayo v. Smith
There’s not a good way to get anecdotal evidence here. Afflalo starts for Denver and Jax isn’t always playing SG. Smith isn’t exactly a star defender though, and both my guys are skilled scorers and above average defenders. I don’t expect to lose this match-up. Smith gets hot every 4 or 5 games, so he’s liable to make an impact once or twice in the series, but Jax and Mayo will have a much more steady impact.
Boozer v. KG
I had to go back to 07/08 to find much of a comparison. They both shot extremely well in their one meeting this year, but on very low volume with both under 20ppg, last year they didn’t face each other due to injuries. In 07/08, Boozer handily outplayed him. Additionally, Boozer is flat out the better player than this season’s version of KG who’s only able to manage 30mpg and is still missing games from injury. Even extrapolating his numbers to per 36 Boozer beats or matches him in every category but blocks, and their DRTGs are very similar too. I truly believe the run down version of KG doesn’t have a chance of outplaying Boozer.
Howard v. Perkins
This is probably the linchpin of the series. If there’s anyone out there who believes Mascot can limit my offense, which frankly isn’t possible IMO, they’ve still got to score. And on this entire team you won’t find a 20ppg scorer, including Dwight. KG and Rondo are under 15 a game…Gordon (who’s not seeing many minutes), Wallace (being covered by SJAX), and Howard are going for under 19 a game. As mentioned, Dwight’s going to have trouble even receiving entry passes against my defense with Rondo as the primary PG. He can’t pick and roll effectively with a non-shooter at the PG slot. In addition to that, Perkins has covered Howard the last two years…this year, Howard’s averaging under 15 on 47% from the field…that’s Marcus Camby efficiency. Last season he averaged 17 on 49% shooting. Last year’s playoffs he never managed 25 in any of the 7 games.
Offensive gameplan: Don’t fix it if it ain’t broke. Deron/Boozer PnR will be the staple of our non-Lebron offense, we’ll also run Lebron/Boozer PnRs, and Deron/Lebron PnRs. We’ll give Deron the opportunity to work against Rondo and Lebron to work against everyone obviously. I don’t think it’s hard to envision this offense with these weapons, so I’ll stop there.
Defensive gamplan: Deny Dwight the ball. With a non-shooter at PG entry passes are going to be difficult. When Rondo’s got the ball, Lebron’s sagging off. When someone else has the ball, Lebron’s in a soft zone denying Dwight the ball. We’re going to force someone, anyone to beat us. While I don’t think even Dwight could do it, I’m positive no one else here can.
Cellardoors in 5.
r0cd0gg wrote:Stuckey will be our fly in the ointment. He is big, strong, and quick and will cause problems for Billups who has historically had problems facing up against larger opponents. He will also help keep Roy fresh and cause Kobe to have to work harder.
r0cd0gg wrote:We will throw Stuckey at Billups part of the time as he his much stronger than Nash and also stronger than Billups. His combination of quickness and strength will allow him to draw fouls and get to the line. We expect the duo of Nash/Stuckey will keep Billups off balance and hinder his ability to control the pace of the game.
r0cd0gg wrote:Stuckey will play the same roll here as does at PG, change of pace/look.
r0cd0gg wrote:Stuckey should be able to bull his way right over Collison and Conley will just bomb away over him.
r0cd0gg wrote:Stuckey should be able to bull his way right over Collison and Conley will just bomb away over him.
r0cd0gg wrote:Casspi and Green will be fun to watch and I would expect to see many 3 pointers in this match up mainly from Casspi.
r0cd0gg wrote:We will get in their heads and wear them down. We will also use an occasional zone D just to throw the Boned Ones off balance. Mainly though we will go man to man with quick rotations and great help defense.
Regardless who has the ball, as a unit they're more willing passers than your guys. Lebron had a blast working off-ball during the olympics, and if you missed the All-Star game, Deron clearly knows how to move without it as well. Smith and Wallace are FAAAAAR more likely to jack something up than anyone on my team. Additionally, starters, who are all playing atleast 34mpg, are only taking 14 more shots than your starters and my bench players aren't going to ever be featured as options like, presumably, Gordon will from time to time.
On the pick n' roll argument: first of all, if you go under the screen, they're not shooting contested threes, they're shooting open ones. Second, I don't know how many pick 'n rolls you watch a season, but there's a TON of them facilitated inside the 3pt line. Especially when Boozer's one of your main screeners and has a great midrange game.
On the Rondo side of the screen rolls, he has no semblance of a jumper and is going to have an awful hard time going straight down the middle when Lebron cuts under the screen and is standing in his way. For the minutes Deron/Mayo are on him, that holds just as true. All the screen/roll is going to do for him is the same thing it did for Rose in the POs last year: bring another defender to clog up your space, and just like Derrick before he had a midrange game: I believe he's better off without the screens usually.
On the bench end, Lawson hugely outperforms Chalmers, Mayo/Jax is, at worst, similar to Gordon/Battier (Jax>Battier, Mayo > or equal to Gordon). And I have a grand total of 12 minutes being played by ANY back-up bigs that Landry and JT are supposedly going to crush. Jason Thompson will be covered by Hibbert for about 10mpg. JT is a 12ppg scorer when he's getting starters' minutes, and will be giving JUST BARELY 50% TS from the field. That's awful from the C position. While we're on TS%, your starting 2G is at 51.8%...that's including the 6 or so 3s he jacks up a game.
This series won't be particularly close. CD in 5. 4 if the wrong Dwight shows up.