I'll try to be quick about it, so I won't expand my points unless it's completely necessary. I'll provide the numbers instead.
[edit: after two paragraphs, my task is to be quick about it is a complete fail, I hope you won't punish me for that, but at the same time I'll continue and try to be quick about it as much as I can][edit2: sorry if it sounded cocky, didn't mean to insult anyone.]
1.reboundingI took all Rebound Rates from B-R, and estimated it for Wilt by TLAF's formula.
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TRB%
Wilt 20.0 estimated by TLAF's formula
L.Smith 19.5
Barry 6.9
Spree 7.1
Bug 4.5
Jamison 9.5
Mullin 6.8
Short 7.2
Floyd 5.8
TRB%
Moses 23.2
Hakeem 18.7
Rudy 11.9
Battier 7.9
Francis 10.0
Thorpe 14.8
McCray 10.1
Floyd 5.9
Elie 5.9
to adjust for mins, I gave Warspites' team this rotation:
Wilt 48
Smith 24/Jam 24 (Smith is much better rebounder but can't stay on the court that long, is a foul prone and a terrible liability on the offensive end considering lack of range for both bigs at the same time)
Barry and Mullin had the same Rebound Rate
Spree and Short had the same Rebound Rate
Hardaway 30/Floyd 18 (the more Floyd, the better Reb Rate so I was generous)
I gave my team rotation listed in my first post in this thread, with Moses playing 38 MPG, Hakeem 10 at C, 30 at PF, and Thorpe playing all the remaining mins at PF.
then I adjusted TRB% for mins played and got the following:
Warspite
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TRB%
Center 20.0
PF 14.5
SF 6.9
SG 7.1
PG 5.0
bastillon
TRB%
C 22.3
PF 17.2
SF 11.4
SG 7.4
PG 8.9
I'm crushing Warspite on the glass. I have significant advantage at every position, except SG where I win it slightly anyway. averaging out TRB% advantage at every position, my team +2.73. adding it all up, it's +13.67. that's a massive gap and I'll fully take advantage of it.
2.Wilt's statsFT% is largely inflated due to different rules regarding FTs. this is what I wrote in another thread:
Wilt's TS% should be lowered because of different rules of shooting free throws pre-1964 because they widened the circle that year and I believe it let Wilt some of the things that other players couldn't do at the time. he benefited without a doubt - he shot 58% in the first four years and 47% afterwards.Wilt after adjusting his TS% with 47% FT (career average post rules changes) is at 51% TS, which isn't even dominant in his own era - it'd place him in TOP15 in 1962, but no higher than that. playoff TS% after the same adjustment - 48%, which is frankly, inefficient.
why should we do pace-adjustments ?
Doctor MJ wrote:Well, I'll just chime in to say: There's more to the differences between leagues than pace differences, but pace adjustment is a must adjustment. The purpose of the game is to score as many points per possession as possible, you get no brownie points for getting those points in 5 seconds instead of 20 seconds. It makes zero sense to favor a player because he got more possessions than another player.
Warriors shot 9152 FGA per 82 games. league average in 2000, a milestone that I chose for no specific reason besides it's a nice number, was 6732. my OpenOffice calc does the math... and pace adjusted scoring puts him at 37.1. and even that measurement doesn't explain all the difference in pace, because Warriors were shooting astronomic amounts of FTs, but I won't even get into that. after adjusting for FTs being made at 47%, it's 35.3. we should also note that Wilt's scoring took a huge dropoff in the playoffs as he scored only 69% of his RS points. so let's do the same adjustments in his playoff scoring - since we're playing in the playoffs here. pace-adjusted playoff scoring (going by what Warriors did in the playoffs of course; excluding again FTA in this pace-adjustment) puts him at 28.5. FTs adjustment (less made bc of lower FT%) - 26.8.
I'll be really generous and leave assists the same. it was harder to get credited for assist but pace is much bigger factor than 10%. nevermind, it'll stay at 3.1 (his playoff APG).
so we have a playoff statline of:
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PPG TRB% APG TS%
Wilt 26.8 20.0 3.1 .48
a much more reasonable numbers. still dominant, but nearly to the same extent. he WAS inefficient though, which was my point in the first place. what should also be noted here is that offensive goaltending was allowed when Wilt was doing all those crazy things with scoring. imagine that he was by far the biggest player on the court and he could catch his teammates' shots and just dunk it any time he wanted to do so. or better - imagine what would Dwight's points average look like if he was put in the same circumstances. this myth about Wilt Chamberlain being a GOAT scorer has to stop. not only he had different rules, but also insanely higher pace than we have now. and I'm not even bringing up the fact that 65% of the league was white at the time... and no international players either, so it's like Chris Kaman and Kevin Love would be TOP10 players today. funny ? that's the reality of the 60s.
this is where my dislike of that era plays an important role, but my points are either factual or statistical evidence that have to be taken into account when talking about Wilt's stats.
3.spacingWilt - no 3pt range, inefficient midrange game, career 47% FT shooter
Larry Smith - little to no range as evidenced by his 53% career FT shooting
Barry - great midrange, but no 3pt range as evidenced by the years he spent in ABA where he shot 1.6 3PA and only made 28% of them
Sprewell - good midrange game, but no 3pt range either. he shot 32% from the 3P line when it was shortened. he had trouble adjusting to normal 3pt line as he struggled in his first two seasons when they moved it (19%, 27%, then improved and made 35%). he doesn't have time to adjust and won't shoot 3s and even with line shortened, he was no serious threat from there anyway.
Hardaway - shot 38% from 3 in that season, but again, with shortened line. he's somewhat a threat even with a normal line, but he never excelled from there and is below average 3P shooter overall
on the bench you have: Rogers (I can shoot better), Floyd (3P% =33), Short (31%), Jamison (31%) and even though Mullin is great at 45%, he's playing limited mins behind HOFer Barry.
that's absolutely atrocious spacing - not only you have 2 starting bigs who have little to no range, but also no legit 3P threat in the entire team, as Mullin's mins will be limited. even Jamison won't help that much, because he's not a reliable 3P threat.
contrary to this awfully shooting team, I have:
Moses - good shooting C, as evidenced by his mid 70s FT%, which is very high standard for centers
Hakeem - one of the best shooting big men ever, 20 foot range, can shoot contested 15 footers and make them at good efficiency
RudyT - not 3P shooter, but very good from midrange as evidenced by his 85% FT and 53.6% FG while mostly shooting jumpers, somewhat comparable to Barry in that regard
Battier - 38% 3P shooter
Francis - 40% 3P shooter on 4.2 3PA
on the bench: Thorpe (reliable midrange shooting PF), Floyd (37% 3P), McCray (very athletic and effective slasher/cutter with 61% TS, can shoot from midrange too)... and then Horry, Elie, Kenny, Mobley are all 3P shooters as well.
I have elite shooting on my team; in contrast with Warspite's team I have GOAT shooting team though, as he was unable to collect any legit 3P threat that would play significant mins.
4.defenseRockets:
Hakeem - DPOY, 1st all defense over DRob, Ewing, Pippen etc; anchoring 3rd best defense in the NBA alongside no other significant defender on his team; 4.2 BPG, 1.8 SPG; arguably one of the GOAT defensive seasons
Moses - 2nd all defense behind KAJ, 1.5 BPG 1 SPG, very good defender
RudyT - don't know much about him, but seems like a mediocre defender
Battier - 2nd all-defense behind DPOY KG and DPOY-caliber Duncan, 3rd in DPOY voting, anchored 2nd ranked defensive team in the league, behind legendary C's 08
Francis - above average defender, insane athlete, 1.8 SPG
off the bench: Thorpe (good D), Floyd (mediocre-to-bad), McCray (2nd all-D, member of 3rd best defense in 87), Horry (very good D, smart and insane athlete), Kenny (atrocious, but won't play), Mobley (avg, won't play), Elie (mediocre-to-avg)
that's a great defensive team - anchored by one of the best defenders ever in Hakeem, with elite rebounding from Moses alongside Hakeem's GOAT-level shotblocking, great perimeter defense with Battier, Francis and RudyT will secure the rebounds.
Warriors:
Wilt - 48.5 MPG on worst defensive team in the league:
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regularized opp pts
Celtics 108.0
Pistons 110.8
Nationals 115.0
lg avg 118.8
Lakers 119.1
Hawks 121.0
Chicago 121.6
Knicks 124.1
Royals 125.0
Warriors 125.8
I regularized opp pts by doing pace-adjustment (team shots relative to lg avg). Warriors are dead last. also you could see the reason why Russell was the MVP of that season, not the stat-padding Wilt. the difference between Celtics and Warriors was historically great. Russell deserved the MVP, Wilt's impact wasn't epic if you include the defense. after all, there's a reason they criticized his defense in his early years.
L.Smith - atrocious defensive big with no shotblocking whatsoever, playing on the worst defensive team in the league as well
Barry - good team defender, mediocre man defender
Spree - member of the 21st defensive team (out of 29)
Hardaway - member of the 25th def team (out of 27)
your starting five, excluding Barry, were members of one of the worst defensive teams of the league at different times in the history. Wilt was even the centerpiece who played all of team's mins on that repugnant defensive Warriors of 1962.
the bench doesn't help much either: Jamison is even worse than Smith and a blowby waiting to happen, not to mention that he was a SF and will be defending Moses, Hakeem or Thorpe, hilarious; none of your bench players have noticeable defensive impact, in fact they're bad defenders mostly.
another contrast and enormous advantage for the Rockets - defense is one side of the court and Warriors can't save their lifes to play any.
5.efficiency.Rockets:
Moses - 60.4% TS, 117 ORtg
Hakeem - 57.7% TS, 114 ORtg
Rudy - 58.7 TS%, 10.8 OWS (though Win Shares aren't that reliable pre 1978), ranked 2nd in the league in both categories, played on 3rd best offense that year too, and was a perennial member of 1st ranked offenses of the 70s Rockets
Battier - 56.1% TS, 117 ORtg
Francis - 56.3% TS, 113 ORtg
bench: McCray 61% TS, Thorpe 60% TS, Floyd 56.5% TS, variety of 3P threats making my offense fluent
Warriors:
Wilt - around 50% TS depending on what you think about his FTs
L.Smith - 55.3% TS, 112 ORtg, efficient in extremely limited volumes, homeless Rodman in general
Barry - this is what I wrote about him in other thread:
he was a good versatile player, but nowhere near "as good as any perimeter player ever" label that he put on him. Barry's passing is awesome... unless we look at huge turnover totals in ABA which strongly suggest he was a turnover machine and thus his passing isn't that great. his rebounding and defense is nothing to brag about. also, he's not all-time level scorer, even at his best. it's important to note that he didn't have 3pt range (as evidenced by his years in ABA) and he was ridiculously poor in DrawF as well. his FTA/FGA ratio is 0.20 in '75 which is plain awful. he was a midrange jumpshooting SF and there's no way that can be efficient way of volume scoring. that's reflected in his TS% which is very poor even for his era. ~50% TS is worse than Iverson and about as good as Kidd. Barry is, to me, one of the most overrated players on realGM, because people fail to acknowledge his poor efficiency.turnover machine, no 3P range, non-existent DrawF, basically Rip Hamilton in that he shoots 2P jumpshots all game long. not an efficient volume scorer in any era. Tomjanovich posted FAR better efficiency in the same exact era. Barry wasn't epic offensive player like people are making him out to be.
Sprewell - 52.7% TS, 108 ORtg, inefficient scorer with decent playmaking skills
Hardaway - 55% TS, 112 ORtg, efficient player with good playmaking
but remember, both enjoyed the benefits of shortened line
bench: Jamison 54% TS, Mullin with a great offensive season (but again, not playing much with Barry at SF), Short with a very good season too... only Guy Rodgers is poor because he can't shoot - even if he fell of a boat, he wouldn't hit the water.
offensive anchor is inefficient, Spree and Barry are well below average wings ito efficiency, L.Smith is just poor offensive player and useless aside from getting on the boards, bench helps certainly but without any spacing they won't make that much impact either. inefficient team overall. not in the same ballpark as the Rockets on offense. insane inside out combo of shooting and post-up players, Moses and Tomjanovich anchored some 1st ranked offenses in the 70s too.
6.no answer for my bigs.while Wilt can be argued as a great defender, he wasn't that guy in 62. even if you assume that he'll try and play very good defense, PF defense is absolutely atrocious. Jamison-Smith in the ATL ? are you kiddin me ? putting Jamison at PF is a crazy idea on many different levels anyway - poor rebounder, awful defender, his matchups are strong post-up players, played at SF and won't evolve into a PF in one day. Larry Smith is at least giving you some rebounding, though he's a foul prone, doesn't play defense, is undersized which makes him a liability on post-ups. Wilt can guard Hakeem/Moses.
who will guard the other big ?!incredible matchup advantage that I'll use as long as it's possible.
also, not only I have excellent spacing, but I have also Battier as my post entry passer and he's one of the best post passers I've ever seen - not only that he has 1.0 TOV as premier post passer to Yao Ming (who is known for his terrible positioning), but he had 0.5 passingTO (according to 82games.com data) which makes him even more impressive... but the lone fact that he didn't turn it over at all passing to Yao is incredible. Rudy T knows how to throw those passes too, there's a reason why Rockets were so succesful in the 70s offensively, not to mention that he utilized Hakeem much better than anyone had ever done when he was a coach.
my post-up game has no flaws.
there are more points, but I won't get into them... how is Wilt going to respond playing with bunch of guys who have their egos ? Barry and Wilt on one team is a disaster waiting to happen and then you have Spree etc. terrible chemistry. how are you going to play when my team is packing the paint with nobody able to punish me for that ?
I think I've made my point - my team is superior
