Debate: Melo's TS%

[devv83]

Melo needs to work out like Amar'e does, that would help his explosion around the rim and finishing. The guy has an incredible amount of skill and talent but he needs to be better toned. He's not badly conditioned or 'fat' but when you are playing in the best league in the world you got to go the extra mile.

Even last yr when he was in the best shape of his life as he said and the nuggets trainer said, he still wasnt cut like Amare and Lebron he never will be.

[SportsGuy8]

This has devolved into a debate on TS% itself, so I hereby declare this debate over.

For "winning," Sportsguy8 gets the "Bitching Statgeek from Mars" award. Congrats.

Ohhh, YAY! I'm so proud.

First, I'd like to thank God. Even though he's so busy giving AIDS to so many kids in Africa, he still took the time to help me and I'll be forever grateful!
Then I'd like to thank all my fellow participants. You'll be forever in my heart!
Last, but not the least ... I'd like to thank Melo, for having such a questionable efficiency. Without you, Melo, this wouldn't be possible! You'll always be in my heart! (hopefully with a ring ... someday)
GO KNICKS!

Me receiving the award:


P.s.: Hopefully nobody got offended by the pic or the "speech". Not my intention, just trying to light things up with my weird sense of humor.

[Jimmy76]

How did this thread end up on the stat board?

It's pretty simple TS% is a damn good measure of scoring efficiency; not perfect but close and a perfect measure would just be a somewhat modified TS%.

TS% defines the value of Melo's scoring; if ppg is quantity TS% is quality. If you're scoring 30ppg on 50 TS% that 30ppg has little to negative value. It doesn't account for whatever defensive pressure it draws and the easy shots it generates for others but that will show up in team ortg and teammates TS%.

Basketball is a possession game. Breaking it down as much as possible:
1. The goal is to win
2. You win by outscoring your opponent
3. You outscore your opponent by getting more points which happens by getting more points out of each possession. TS% is a huuuuge part of how many points you're getting in each possession.

This is why a lot of stat heads aren't huge AI fans. If AI takes 50 possessions which result in 40 points for him, 10 points for teammates he assisted after turnovers, rebounds and TS% are taken into account. AI looks awesome because he's scored 40 points and dished 5 assists but that's 50 points on 50 possessions (an ortg of 100 which is just how many points it would be in 100 possessions.) The average ortg today is 107 so in 50 possessions rounding up so the average team has turned those 50 possessions into 54 points so they've won the game. 54>50 to finish off the obvious.

TS% is a huge part of how many possessions are turning into points.

edit: addressing the other concern about 3 pointers, say you make 33.3/100 3 pointers vs 50/100 2 pointers (identical point value, same amount of points in both possessions) there isn't an inherent possession difference there. You make the shot they get the ball out of bounds, you miss the shot and they get a defensive rebound they get the ball. There isn't any inherent possession difference. The 17 extra misses are a bit more likely to end up fast breaks because it's easier to fast break out of defensive rebounds than passing out of bounds (duh) but at the same time it gives you more chances at offensive rebounds without giving up point value. How it weighs out I don't know but purely in terms of measuring scoring value TS% is still doing it's job.

[StutterStep]

How did this thread end up on the stat board?

edit: addressing the other concern about 3 pointers, say you make 33.3/100 3 pointers vs 50/100 2 pointers (identical point value, same amount of points in both possessions) there isn't an inherent possession difference there. You make the shot they get the ball out of bounds, you miss the shot and they get a defensive rebound they get the ball. There isn't any inherent possession difference. The 17 extra misses are a bit more likely to end up fast breaks because it's easier to fast break out of defensive rebounds than passing out of bounds (duh) but at the same time it gives you more chances at offensive rebounds without giving up point value. How it weighs out I don't know but purely in terms of measuring scoring value TS% is still doing it's job.

Good response! You are correct, in that I should not have termed it as "17 extra possessions", only misses. That was my initial thought but used the wrong words.

As far as missed shots, there is ongoing work to quantify the value of a missed shot and I reference two in the original thread that dealt with this TS% debate. Here are the links:


http://www.pistonsforum.com/view-sprocketpoints.html

Two point shots made
Weight: 2.0
Rationale – Seems logical.

Two point shots missed
Weight: -0.9559
Rationale – For each two point shot missed, two points times the league average shooting percentage for a two point shot (0.4779) is subtracted. Basically this says that rather than taking and missing the shot the player could have given the ball up to an average teammate who would have taken a shot valued at 0.9559 points. A player’s scoring is devalued if he shoots more poorly than the average NBA player and prized if he shoots at a higher percentage. Sprocket Points will penalize players who take thirty shots to make ten.

Three point shots made
Weight: 3.0
Rationale – Seems logical.

Three point shots missed
Weight: -1.0749
Rationale – For each three point shot missed, three points times the league average shooting percentage for a three point shot (0.3583) is subtracted. Basically this says that rather than taking and missing the shot the player could have given the ball up to an average teammate who would have taken a shot valued at 1.0749 points. Again, a player’s scoring is devalued if he shoots more poorly than the average NBA player and prized if he shoots at a higher percentage. If a player misses 75% of three pointers taken, he will actually lose points in the scoring regardless of how many shots he makes.

==

http://www.nba.com/dleague/news/rebound ... 10121.html

Teams that play faster tempos will take and allow more shots, which means a greater number of missed shots will occur at both ends of the floor, offering more chances for rebounds. Teams that shoot a high percentage will have fewer chances to get offensive rebounds, and teams that allow opponents to shoot a high percentage will have fewer chances to get defensive rebounds.

[Dr Positivity]

Melo's TS% is OK because teams still have to throw doubles at him or else he'll burn them. Melo makes your offense significantly harder to guard. And I'd still vouch for a coorelation between star talent and defense. Having stars makes it easier for everyone else to concentrate on d. To practice d. To get back in transition cause they know the stars have the halfcourt under control. To try harder cause they have a competitive team now and can win every game.