Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

[Optimism Prime]

NOTE: I'm shamelessly cross-posting this from the Rockets forum. Figured it'd make sense to have it here too.

Lots of good stuff going on here. Couple killer summary articles:

"Van Gundy, Morey Call Out McGrady"

Malcolm Gladwell, the best-selling author, is moderating the first panel, which is about the notion, developed by experts who study talent and discussed in Gladwell’s book “Outliers,” that anyone interested in being truly great at something has to practice for at least 10,000 hours to reach an elite level of greatness. The point of the panel, which features Jeff Van Gundy and Houston Rockets’ GM Daryl Morey, is ostensibly to talk about things like the concept of “natural talent,” the importance of work ethic and how to weigh those variables in the draft and in free agency.

Perhaps it was inevitable with the heavy Rockets flavor on the panel, but the discussion quickly to turned to Tracy McGrady — in an unfavorable way. “Tracy McGrady was 1,000 hours of practice,” Van Gundy said, to some pretty loud laughs. “He should be a Hall of Fame player. His talent was other-worldly. He was given a great leg up in the race against other players. He’s as close as I’ve ever seen to someone with a perfect body and a good mind.”

Boundless potential with advanced metrics

Weil charted a whole bunch of stuff based on data generated from high-tech cameras, with three-dimensional capabilities, a company called STATS, LLC has installed at a handful of NBA arenas this season. The cameras capture an image 25 times per second and record every event on the court and the location of all the key elements involved — the 10 players, the ball, the referees, etc.

The potential is enormous. A few key bullet points before I get into the meat of the findings:

• Weil’s data was based on cameras installed at three arenas, but Brian Kopp, a vice-president at STATS, told me the cameras are currently in place at five arenas — San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma City and Golden State. The Warriors stand out there, since the other three clubs are known for their early and enthusiastic embrace of advanced stats and general geekiness. The Warriors have been known mostly for ugly intra-team disputes over the last few years.

Tons more to follow on ESPN.com (especially Truehoop) and Twitter (@SloanSportsConf or #ssac).

Will update with more interesting posts as I see them.

[Vinsanity420]

Mmmm... T-Mac. Of course.

The 2nd article presents some really interesting stats. Good stuff. Especially these ones -

You know whose passes so far this season have also led to a 60 percent accuracy rate for teammates? Monta Ellis, according to what Kopp showed me. The same Monta Ellis most NBA die-hards critique as an inefficient gunner who doesn’t help his teammates all that much. Interesting, no?

But if you catch a pass and hold the ball for about 2.25 seconds, whatever advantage you gained from catching the pass disappears. This makes sense, since holding the ball gives your defender a chance to catch up to you and prepare to defend your next move.

Think about the argument this data is making against the sort of isolation plays that have made someone like Carmelo Anthony into a star. It doesn’t mean isolations have no place in basketball — not when there’s a clock that limits the time each team has before it must shoot the ball. But this does raise the possibility that this kind of data, as it becomes more accessible, is going to make isolations look even worse than we already know they are.

[Dr Positivity]

A tightly contested layup produces about the same amount of points per shot attempt as a wide-open 19-footer, Weil said.

Interesting

[Twinkie defense]

Monta is shooting 45% from the field this season... if his passes lead to 60% shooting dude should be passing the rock some more!

[Nivek]

Monta is shooting 45% from the field this season... if his passes lead to 60% shooting dude should be passing the rock some more!

We don't know that. Maybe he should, maybe he shouldn't. It could be that the reason his passes lead to 60% shooting is because of the volume of his shot attempts. If he began focusing on passing more frequently, he'd end up passing to more closely defended teammates who would then likely shoot a lower percentage.

Or not. What we know is what he's done. That doesn't guarantee the same efficiency if he changed the way he plays.

[Twinkie defense]

No but I think it is clear that Monta can get to the rim at will, and when he does that he is collapsing the defense and leading to wide-open teammates at the arc or under the rim. But he is probably settling on outside jumpers too often. So even if in a larger statistical modeling we don't know what effect a change in some variables will have on other variables, from a basketball sense it seems clear that the team would be better served if Monta would drive more, shoot less jumpers, and look for his open teammates, strictly given what success those teammates have had - a very quantifiable effect, not some theoretical exercise - when he gives up the rock.

In other words I don't think it's so contradictory to Monta's rep that his teammates are scoring at a very high rate when he passes them the ball.