Average TS% vs Replacement TS%

[Rerisen]

Dropping "replacement level" to 35% sounds accurate to me. I think if a team just took contested midrange shots 92 times it's hard to imagine them at least not breaking 35% and thus 65 points on average

Is it fair to say PER thinks a replacement level shot is right about 33% FG? As anything better than that, it's giving you points for shooting that mark or better. Which is one of things PER has been ripped for for years, but the thinking in this thread is actually working back toward a similar number.

[EvanZ]

Hollinger gets a lot of undeserved hate. That's one thing I've realized as I've gotten deeper and deeper into this stuff. JH knows his stuff.

[mopper8]

I don't like PER because the math/analysis seems very thoughtful (and I don't have the background to really dig into it), but the input data is arbitrary. There's really nothing PER tells you that you can't read in a boxscore except production relative to peers...but that's only worthwhile insofar as we consider boxscore metrics worthwhile measurements. Obviously, boxscores include some things that aren't necessarily the greatest indicators of production, while excluding other tangible things (why have steals but no charges taken or deflections, e.g.?)

PER to me seems like replacing the "chains" in football with some super accurate laser or something, but then still first allowing the ref to eyeball the spot.

[tclg]

This is super interesting. I read Evanz shot analysis. This replacement shot idea is pretty good because if you dont shoot its a shot clock violation.