Players better than their (advanced) stats/boxscore

[MrBigShot]

Kobe was accurately measured by advanced statistics, in my opinion.

I disagree. I think prime/peak Kobe was significantly better than what his box-score advanced stats show, and his +/- numbers seem to agree with that. He didn't lead the league in a single advanced stat over his prime, and yet had the best offensive +/- numbers in the ten year study (02-11) and his minute-adjusted +/- look better than anybody on the list outside of LeBron and Duncan. He was higher than Wade, Nash, CP3, Dirk, Duncan, etc.

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/10-year-rapm

Offensive +/-:
Kobe: +6.6
LBJ: +6.6
Wade: +6.2
Nash: 5.5
Paul: 5.2

Essentially/virtually tied for #3 overall and the guy ahead by .1 (Wade) isn't even remotely close in terms of minutes played (Kobe played 29783 min over this sample. Wade? 20540. A difference of nearly ten thousand!).

So he's #3 overall, and only KG and LeBron are ahead. He's ahead of Duncan, Dirk, CP3, Nash, etc.

He's #1 in ORAPM (tied with LBJ...except Bryant played more than 4200+ more minutes over this sample)

Again, here he's ahead of Dirk, Nash, Wade, CP3, Duncan, etc.

That 2002-2011 study does basically cover Bryant's prime and that's why it's the one to use BUT it doesn't even include his remarkable 2001 season.

Here's the RAPM from that season (playoffs and reg season included)
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/11181n4avq5wefk/AABLySVPmcZXb0uiGPEk53fpa/2001.txt?dl=0

He's #2 among all stars/superstars behind only Duncan. He's #2 in minute-adjusted RAPM overall/among all players(williams (lol) played 1800+ less min and wasn't in Bryant's universe anyway, and Stockton played nearly 1000 less min)...he's ahead of freaking peak Shaq

Duncan: 5.52
Bryant: 4.39
Shaq: 4.37


Now let's look at what is widely regarded as his peak (2008)

In 08 Bryant was very widely regarded as the best player in the game despite the measly 24 PER and "advanced stats" that pale in comparison to LBJ/CP3, and yet he put up better offensive +/- than anybody in game outside of Nash (who played a ton less minutes) and in fact had the best minute-adjusted numbers in the entire league along with KG.

Nash: +7.26
Kobe: +6.29
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AACIF1UxAphVjODbTtO57_mia/2008.txt?dl=0

Kobe (24 PER): +6.29
LBJ (30 PER): +5.07
CP3 (30 PER): +3.41
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AACIF1UxAphVjODbTtO57_mia/2008.txt?dl=0

Offensive and Defensive Adjusted Plus/Minus : 2007-08
Bryant was#2 in Off Adj +/- Rating
Bryant #1 in Adj +/- Rating
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qgxs2bv40jBt6GD7txEUcnItyvax_zUfbTbnx1YXsL4/pub
http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/06/03/offensive-and-defensive-adjusted-plus-minus/

SWAgR Wins (minute-adjusted RAPM, first available in 2008): #1 in 2008
http://www.gotbuckets.com/

Over on the PC Board a poster completed a study that measured how well a team did when their star missed games.

It's called WOWY (with and without you)

In other words, if you looked at all of the activity of players moving in and out lineups over the years, whose team changed the most based on a given player’s presence?

Kobe (prime) had one of the highest scores recorded at +6.5.

He's higher than Russell, Wilt, Chamverlain, Duncan, Shaq, Bird, KG, Dr J, Karl Malone, Barkley, Durant, and many other great players.

http://www.backpicks.com/2016/09/28/iii-historical-impact-wowyr-60-years-of-plus-minus/

Basically all the impact numbers tell us that peak/prime Bryant was having astronomical impact that went well beyond the box-score.

And what's particularly impressive about Bryant is that he made astronomical impact on great teams and next to some other stars. It's easy for a superstar to take a horrible team and get them to mediocrity, or turning a decent team into a good one, but making HUGE impact on amazing teams/ strong contenders is much more impressive, and so the fact that this his impact is at this level while playing with Shaq from 02-04 (on teams that weren't built/around him and while playing with another superstar whose biggest strength was also scoring, so certainly not the ideal situation to make maximum impact) and then anchoring the contending teams of 2008-2011 (the 08 were one of the strongest non-champion in history and GOAT level with Pau, and the 09 Lakers were one of the best teams in history and statistically one of the strongest champions ever, and obviously the 2010 Lakers were the champs) is extremely impressive

Other players that I think were/are better than their box-score advanced stats:
KG
Rasheed
Nash
Jordan
Aldridge

Wonderful post, really good read.

Always thought it was interesting how much of a discrepancy there was between realgm's value on Kobe and that of the actual players & coaches throughout the league when Kobe was in his prime when he was widely regarded as the best player for multiple seasons.

[wassuphomeboy]

Kobe was accurately measured by advanced statistics, in my opinion.

I disagree. I think prime/peak Kobe was significantly better than what his box-score advanced stats show, and his +/- numbers seem to agree with that. He didn't lead the league in a single advanced stat over his prime, and yet had the best offensive +/- numbers in the ten year study (02-11) and his minute-adjusted +/- look better than anybody on the list outside of LeBron and Duncan. He was higher than Wade, Nash, CP3, Dirk, Duncan, etc.

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/10-year-rapm

Offensive +/-:
Kobe: +6.6
LBJ: +6.6
Wade: +6.2
Nash: 5.5
Paul: 5.2

Essentially/virtually tied for #3 overall and the guy ahead by .1 (Wade) isn't even remotely close in terms of minutes played (Kobe played 29783 min over this sample. Wade? 20540. A difference of nearly ten thousand!).

So he's #3 overall, and only KG and LeBron are ahead. He's ahead of Duncan, Dirk, CP3, Nash, etc.

He's #1 in ORAPM (tied with LBJ...except Bryant played more than 4200+ more minutes over this sample)

Again, here he's ahead of Dirk, Nash, Wade, CP3, Duncan, etc.

That 2002-2011 study does basically cover Bryant's prime and that's why it's the one to use BUT it doesn't even include his remarkable 2001 season.

Here's the RAPM from that season (playoffs and reg season included)
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/11181n4avq5wefk/AABLySVPmcZXb0uiGPEk53fpa/2001.txt?dl=0

He's #2 among all stars/superstars behind only Duncan. He's #2 in minute-adjusted RAPM overall/among all players(williams (lol) played 1800+ less min and wasn't in Bryant's universe anyway, and Stockton played nearly 1000 less min)...he's ahead of freaking peak Shaq

Duncan: 5.52
Bryant: 4.39
Shaq: 4.37


Now let's look at what is widely regarded as his peak (2008)

In 08 Bryant was very widely regarded as the best player in the game despite the measly 24 PER and "advanced stats" that pale in comparison to LBJ/CP3, and yet he put up better offensive +/- than anybody in game outside of Nash (who played a ton less minutes) and in fact had the best minute-adjusted numbers in the entire league along with KG.

Nash: +7.26
Kobe: +6.29
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AACIF1UxAphVjODbTtO57_mia/2008.txt?dl=0

Kobe (24 PER): +6.29
LBJ (30 PER): +5.07
CP3 (30 PER): +3.41
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AACIF1UxAphVjODbTtO57_mia/2008.txt?dl=0

Offensive and Defensive Adjusted Plus/Minus : 2007-08
Bryant was#2 in Off Adj +/- Rating
Bryant #1 in Adj +/- Rating
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qgxs2bv40jBt6GD7txEUcnItyvax_zUfbTbnx1YXsL4/pub
http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/06/03/offensive-and-defensive-adjusted-plus-minus/

SWAgR Wins (minute-adjusted RAPM, first available in 2008): #1 in 2008
http://www.gotbuckets.com/

Over on the PC Board a poster completed a study that measured how well a team did when their star missed games.

It's called WOWY (with and without you)

In other words, if you looked at all of the activity of players moving in and out lineups over the years, whose team changed the most based on a given player’s presence?

Kobe (prime) had one of the highest scores recorded at +6.5.

He's higher than Russell, Wilt, Chamverlain, Duncan, Shaq, Bird, KG, Dr J, Karl Malone, Barkley, Durant, and many other great players.

http://www.backpicks.com/2016/09/28/iii-historical-impact-wowyr-60-years-of-plus-minus/

Basically all the impact numbers tell us that peak/prime Bryant was having astronomical impact that went well beyond the box-score.

And what's particularly impressive about Bryant is that he made astronomical impact on great teams and next to some other stars. It's easy for a superstar to take a horrible team and get them to mediocrity, or turning a decent team into a good one, but making HUGE impact on amazing teams/ strong contenders is much more impressive, and so the fact that this his impact is at this level while playing with Shaq from 02-04 (on teams that weren't built/around him and while playing with another superstar whose biggest strength was also scoring, so certainly not the ideal situation to make maximum impact) and then anchoring the contending teams of 2008-2011 (the 08 were one of the strongest non-champion in history and GOAT level with Pau, and the 09 Lakers were one of the best teams in history and statistically one of the strongest champions ever, and obviously the 2010 Lakers were the champs) is extremely impressive

Other players that I think were/are better than their box-score advanced stats:
KG
Rasheed
Nash
Jordan
Aldridge

I'm far from a Kobe fan, but this post makes many good points.

[Quotatious]

Kobe was accurately measured by advanced statistics, in my opinion.

Agreed, I've always thought he was overrated by most people. Nowhere near to Jordan or LeBron, even though so many people love to compare him to MJ and LBJ. I'll put it this way - peak Kobe (no matter which season you think was his best), was somewhere around the talent of Jordan's and James's worst prime seasons - I mean around 1997 or 1998 MJ or 2011 LeBron. It's always hilarious for me to see people complain when somebody puts him outside of the top 10 all-time, like ESPN did this year. Kobe may be the closest thing to Jordan in terms of style of play (especially to second 3-peat Jordan), combined with similar team accomplishments and somewhat similar basic stats, and benefits a lot from that comparison, because MJ is considered the GOAT by majority of NBA fans, but speaking of elite shooting guards - as good as Kobe is, he's actually closer to Clyde Drexler than he is to Michael Jordan in terms of the substance that he brought (as evident in their advanced stats). Kobe is better than Clyde but the gap between MJ and KB is bigger than the gap between KB and CD, in my opinion. In Kobe's generation, there was IMO a better shooting guard - to me, Wade in his best seasons (2006, 2009, 2010, 2011) was generally better than Kobe and peaked higher than KB. T-Mac's 2003 season was arguably better than any of Kobe's, too. What's great about Kobe is that he had excellent longevity, sustained his peak level of play for about 6 seasons (2001, 2003, 2006-09, even 2010 playoffs) and was generally a top 5-10 player for about 13 seasons (2001 to 2013), but there's a lot of players in NBA history who were better than him in terms of peak play.

As far as the question, I've always thought Jason Kidd's impact was higher than his box-score production (which was very good, but only scratched the surface as far as his defense, and didn't take his leadership or ability to control tempo of the game, into account, at all). Even as a role player in his last season at age 40, playing for the Knicks, he made a massive impact and it's no coincidence that the Knicks overachieved compared to their talent that season.

Defensive specialists, especially those who don't shine in terms of steals and blocks, are almost always more valuable than their box-score suggests - Bruce Bowen is a perfect example.

Among all-time greats, I think Bill Russell definitely belongs here, at least compared to Wilt Chamberlain, because Wilt was better in every statistical category (there are reports from people who watched both of them in the 60s, which say that if we had steals and blocks for Bill's and Wilt's careers, Wilt would've averaged more blocks per game, and probably about the same in steals), but Russell won 11 championships compared to just 2 for Chamberlain, even though Wilt had a comparable team around him in a lot of seasons. Russell's leadership, basketball IQ and defense was otherworldly.

[Johnny Firpo]

Harrison Barnes this year is a good candidate. His advanced stats don't look good, but he is one of the, if not the best isolation players this year, shooting like 50% on the most isolation attempts in the league.

[Snotbubbles]

This is not a homer thread so you can't mention guys who are currently playing for your team(you can however if they played for your team).

I'm going to ignore this, as this thread could be renamed the Rudy Gobert and other guys thread.

One of the favorite things some fans on this board like to do is compare their center to Gobert based on block stats. If you go purely off stats, then it looks like there are several players who are just as good as Gobert defensively, or very close. This is very misleading as to the impact Gobert has on the game, as there are many times when teams quit taking the ball into the paint against Rudy half-way through the 1st quarter.

I see the same thing happening with Embiid. When he's in the game it's jump shot, jump shot, jump shot. As soon as he goes to the bench it's layup drills.

[TurboTitan]

Bruce Bowen?

[stitches]

Avery Bradley is below average defender by pretty much every single advanced defensive stat there is, but he just got NBA All-Defensive First Team last year and fans think he's one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

For this current season he's rated as the 92nd out of 93 SGs by DRPM. The Celtics are 21.6(!!!!!!!) points per 100 possessions worse defensively with him on the floor than with him on the bench. His Drtg is 107 which is below average, his DBPM is negative(-0.2), his defensive win shares /48 are about average for the position.

In his NBA All-Defensive First Team season he was 51st out of 80 listed SGs by DRPM. Celtics were 5.5 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with him on the floor than with him on the bench. His Drtg was 106 which is below average, his DBPM was negative(-0.3), his defensive win shares were 15th out of 90 guards(this is the best advanced stat for his defense).

My personal opinion - Avery Bradley is massively overrated defender in the NBA. BUT!! I think those stats don't do him justice. On tape he seems like an above average defender with good lateral quickness and great defensive instincts and he makes some really flashy defensive stops(the stop against Hayward comes to mind). My guess as to why he comes off this bad in the advanced stats is that his lack of size catches up with him in the long run.

[FNQ]

Just from the Warriors:

Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut will never, ever get the love they deserve, especially Bogut. I think Bogut is a top 5 C in the league when he's healthy, and some fans argue they wouldn't even give up a 2nd to rent him for half a season.

[FNQ]

Harrison Barnes this year is a good candidate. His advanced stats don't look good, but he is one of the, if not the best isolation players this year, shooting like 50% on the most isolation attempts in the league.

Agree. Barnes is looking like a good iso specialist for the future for the Mavs. And the advanced stats accurately tell people that he's a drag on the team as a #1 option.. I think he's a prime example of someone with good counting stats that fits into this thread well. And there won't be a ton of these types either

[jackwindham]

I think the Mavericks would be better off if Barnes were the #2 option on offense.

[Johnny Firpo]

I think the Mavericks would be better off if Barnes were the #2 option on offense.

Oh no question about it, and hopefully the draft will take care of that.

[Chicago76]

Dale Davis.

That guys screens probably got Reggie Miller 10 PPG

Dale Davis was excellent at setting screens, but a lot of people are at least very good, and the offensive impact between "very good" and excellent as a screener isn't all that much. At least as it relates to off the ball stuff rather than PnR.

Millers pts/100 poss:

2 years before DD: 30.7 pts per 100 possessions
DD's 2nd - 7th year with the Pacers: 31.2 pts per 100 poss.

DD's last year: 25.4 pts per 100 possessions
first year without DD: 25.8 pts per 100 possessions

Croshere and Foster were the primary pick setters for Miller in that last year. I'm not seeing impact there.

[Pennebaker]

I disagree. I think prime/peak Kobe was significantly better than what his box-score advanced stats show, and his +/- numbers seem to agree with that. He didn't lead the league in a single advanced stat over his prime, and yet had the best offensive +/- numbers in the ten year study (02-11)...

And in the study you cite, in defense per 100, he's at -0.5; the only player in the top 25 on offense that is in the negative on defense. Overall he ends up tied with Manu Ginobili over that span (which is about right on a per 100 basis). So your first example doesn't appear to counter what I said about advanced stats being accurate when it comes to Kobe. And that makes sense because Kobe was always a guy that countered all of the great things he did with significant episodes of bad, and we see the advanced stats bearing that out, in my opinion.

Yeah, and in the study I cited, he played more than 12,000 minutes more than Manu...that's not even to mention the humongous difference in role. You ignore that.

You ignore that he had the best offensive +/- numbers, and is ahead of guys like Nash, Dirk, CP3, Wade etc.

You ignore that he's third in minute-adjusted +/- behind only LBJ and KG, essentially tied with Wade (who played nearly 10,000 less minutes over this span) and is ahead of guys like Duncan, Dirk, Nash, Paul, etc

You ignore the WOWY numbers I posted, which has him with one of the highest marks recorded, and ahead of guys like Wilt, Duncan, Bird, Drexler, both Malones, Barkley etc.

You ignore the amazing +/- numbers he put up in 2001...better than peak Shaq...one the best playoff team in history and one of the absolute best teams ever.

You ignore the amazing numbers he put up in 08, and the huge disparity between his advanced stats and his actual impact in that year, and over his prime.

In fact, you seem to have essentially ignored almost my entire post, and cut off a very small snippet of it...while cutting all the numerous other numbers and studies I pointed to prove my assertion that Bryant was having glaringly superior impact compared to his box-score advanced stats. You have done nothing to make me think otherwise, and the idea that Bryant could make this type of impact, post these type of numbers, and have the type of extraordinarily success he had with "significant episodes of bad" is just hilariously silly and foolish.

Okay listen...

Yeah, and in the study I cited, he played more than 12,000 minutes more than Manu...that's not even to mention the humongous difference in role. You ignore that.

Nobody is ignoring that. But on a per minute or per possession basis they were about even over that span. That’s a mathematical fact. Yes, maybe as Manu’s coach you felt compelled to give him less minutes for whatever reason - but when you did give him minutes in any given game you expected productivity out of him that could easily equal Kobe Bryant. And it did. He has the hardware to prove it.

Manu and Kobe are very similar players at their core. As a true shooting guard Manu was more of a genius passer and a team player - and as a true shooting guard Kobe was more of a genius scorer that demanded all the glory.

But I do think in this case that advanced stats found a way to show how valuable a hall-of-fame quality, team oriented 6th man like Manu really is compared to a legendary & beloved super-chucking franchise player like Kobe Bryant. And I think it bears out that the player that has more of his teammates in mind (Manu) is usually going to get major bonuses in every way in his basketball reputation - whether looking at stats, rings or public opinion.

And, subjectively speaking, one thing I think Manu did very well - and something that I think Kobe would completely agree with me about - is that Ginobili was as clutch as a gated Ferrari.

You ignore that he had the best offensive +/- numbers, and is ahead of guys like Nash, Dirk, CP3, Wade etc.

I didn’t ignore that at all. I’m just saying that it was leveled by his poor defensive +/- numbers. Look, we all know that Kobe can score the ball as good as anyone in history save for Wilt Chamberlain. But he leaked so much advantage… with his meager assist numbers and his wildly fluctuating defensive commitment. In NASA speak Kobe would be akin to something like Apollo 13 - legendary, heroic, amazing, but ultimately flawed and leaving the greatest honor just beyond his grasp.

You ignore that he's third in minute-adjusted +/- behind only LBJ and KG, essentially tied with Wade (who played nearly 10,000 less minutes over this span) and is ahead of guys like Duncan, Dirk, Nash, Paul, etc.

I didn't ignore that. I think that’s fine.

You ignore the WOWY numbers I posted, which has him with one of the highest marks recorded, and ahead of guys like Wilt, Duncan, Bird, Drexler, both Malones, Barkley etc.

You’re right, I did ignore that.

You ignore the amazing +/- numbers he put up in 2001...better than peak Shaq...one the best playoff team in history and one of the absolute best teams ever.

I didn’t ignore that per se… I didn’t get that far because you were so wrong with your first argument, so why continue?

In fact, you seem to have essentially ignored almost my entire post, and cut off a very small snippet of it...while cutting all the numerous other numbers and studies I pointed to prove my assertion.

Now you're catching on!

[NuggetsWY]

Scott Skiles @ Orlando - he pretty much ran that team - started as a backup PG but became the starter - it was an expansion team along with Minnesota and between the two teams, Skiles was the 11th player selected (not a high pick and not the Magic's first PG pick --- advanced metrics never favored him, even box scores didn't, but he made a huge difference in the early days

[AdotSmoove]

Dennis Rodman, Tony Allen, Ben Wallace, Rudy Gobert, and Deandre Jordan just to name a few.

We might as well add Mark Eaton to that crew.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[feyki]

Playmakers w/out high volume scoring .

[Drylick]

Kobe was accurately measured by advanced statistics, in my opinion.

I don't think advanced metrics measures how exactly impactful a player is by drawing double teams and being the focus of the entire defense. It's something you have to watch to understand.

[Pennebaker]

Kobe was accurately measured by advanced statistics, in my opinion.

I don't think advanced metrics measures how exactly impactful a player is by drawing double teams and being the focus of the entire defense.

well, you're wrong. it does.

[Drylick]

Kobe was accurately measured by advanced statistics, in my opinion.

I don't think advanced metrics measures how exactly impactful a player is by drawing double teams and being the focus of the entire defense.

well, you're wrong. it does.

Like, how? Advanced metrics like? Impact is really hard to quantify.

[Daddy 801]

Also going to be a homer with the other Jazz fans and mention Rudy.

He does all the little things that don't show up, as well as some things that do show up. The offense runs efficiently when he is in because he sets such good screens. For those that don't watch Rudy a lot think of a bigger and longer version of the Boston KG on defense and setting screens on offense and you have an idea of what Rudy can do. Unfortunately he doesn't have the midrange game KG did though.