Daryl Morey on MJ vs. Lebron

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JVL
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Re: Daryl Morey on MJ vs. Lebron 

Post#21 » by JVL » Sat Jan 4, 2020 10:22 am

batmana wrote:
Egg Nog wrote:...
I don't see that this is an apt comparison at all. Boxers are an easier comparison because they fight one on one.

To really make a comparison in basketball we need to filter out the influence on winning/losing from teammates and the opposition to isolate one player's talent. A difficult task, certainly.

Jordan's finals teams were always heavily favored apart from '98 when they were slightly favored. -200, -250, -240, -950, -600, -115

LeBron's finals teams were only favored twice: +360, -175, +155, -220, +135, +190, +180, +250, +688


Don't you think LeBron has something to do with the fact that even though he stacked the deck in his own favor by joining Wade (and attracting Bosh) and proclaimed "not 1, not 2,..., not 6..." titles were coming up, his teams weren't considered clear-cut favorites? Maybe it's because of the fact that every LeBron team plays LeBron ball. He dominates all of the stats, his teams play his style which, ultimately, caps the team's performance..


I can't belief this is still a narrative on these boards.

Do you actually have any data to back up your assessment that Lebron makes teams worse? Or curbs their potential?

Statistical Analysis subforum and we still have nobodies peddling their unsubstantiated snake oil.
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Re: Daryl Morey on MJ vs. Lebron 

Post#22 » by VanWest82 » Wed Jan 8, 2020 11:02 pm

JVL wrote:
batmana wrote:
Egg Nog wrote:...
I don't see that this is an apt comparison at all. Boxers are an easier comparison because they fight one on one.

To really make a comparison in basketball we need to filter out the influence on winning/losing from teammates and the opposition to isolate one player's talent. A difficult task, certainly.

Jordan's finals teams were always heavily favored apart from '98 when they were slightly favored. -200, -250, -240, -950, -600, -115

LeBron's finals teams were only favored twice: +360, -175, +155, -220, +135, +190, +180, +250, +688


Don't you think LeBron has something to do with the fact that even though he stacked the deck in his own favor by joining Wade (and attracting Bosh) and proclaimed "not 1, not 2,..., not 6..." titles were coming up, his teams weren't considered clear-cut favorites? Maybe it's because of the fact that every LeBron team plays LeBron ball. He dominates all of the stats, his teams play his style which, ultimately, caps the team's performance..


I can't belief this is still a narrative on these boards.

Do you actually have any data to back up your assessment that Lebron makes teams worse? Or curbs their potential?

Statistical Analysis subforum and we still have nobodies peddling their unsubstantiated snake oil.


The data you're looking for is in on/offs and win/loss record when Lebron couldn't play. MJ played on teams with offensive systems that could survive beyond 'give Lebron the ball and let him make all the plays.' Bron has been a blessing and a curse in that respect though obviously the benefit of having him has far, far outweighed any negatives. If we're splitting hairs over ATGs I think it's a fair criticism.
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Re: Daryl Morey on MJ vs. Lebron 

Post#23 » by Blackmill » Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:01 am

pmart123 wrote:Daryl Morey in an interview commented something like "the advanced stats favor Lebron by a wide margin." Does anyone know what advanced stats that were available across eras he is referring to? In terms of win shares in say top five or seven seasons or playoff win shares per 48, Jordan's stats look better. Top five or seven season VORP's look pretty similar. "Wide margin" seems pretty strong in either direction, so wanted to see if anyone had insights on his reasoning or whether his reasoning has merit?

Here's a link to the video: https://art19.com/shows/the-haberstroh-show


Ever heard of "garbage in, garbage out"? This isn't just heuristic advice, it's a mathematical fact (see the data processing inequality). What it means for your question is that Morey surely isn't talking about any kind of box-score derived statistic. At least he shouldn't be. He probably is referring to some form of plus minus.

Onto plus minus, this a popular way to evaluate impact, but typically plus-minus regression has many solutions with nearly identical error but significantly different implications. For instance, it's pretty easy to fix one player's plus minus to whatever you want, fit the rest of the model, and see almost no change in average error. Adding regularization doesn't always change this fact.

All that's to say I doubt there's much merit when Morey says advanced stats favor LeBron. But maybe Morey has some ultra high quality player tracking data and is correct. I wouldn't be surprised if this type of data favors LeBron over MJ but I just don't think it exists.
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Re: Daryl Morey on MJ vs. Lebron 

Post#24 » by DavidDunn21 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:41 am

Egg Nog wrote:
Richfield wrote:Imagine boxer A, who punches 5 times, then ducks 3 times, then punches 2 more times.

Imagine boxer B, who punches 3 times, ducks 1 time, then punches 3 more times.

Boxer A lost.

Boxer B won.

Boxer A shows more dominant stats.

Boxer B anticipated the opponent's particular movements better, knew more precisely when to duck and when to punch. They landed at better times.

Boxer B is the better boxer. He won.

If that doesn't do it for you. Think of pushing a kid on a swing. The goal is to go high. It's not about stats like how fast you push, or necessarily how hard you push. If you push at the wrong rhythm, the kid won't go very high no matter what. If you push even lightly, at just the right times, the kid flies.

Jordan knew what to do and when to do it. Stats aren't going to tell that entire story.

Not sure if Morey's stats factored in Championships, and the fact that they're the ultimate stat. And don't bring up Robert Horry, we know what this discussion is about. Superstar versus superstar.

Morey's stats didn't measure intelligence, the importance of genius, accurately if at all.


I don't see that this is an apt comparison at all. Boxers are an easier comparison because they fight one on one.

To really make a comparison in basketball we need to filter out the influence on winning/losing from teammates and the opposition to isolate one player's talent. A difficult task, certainly.

Jordan's finals teams were always heavily favored apart from '98 when they were slightly favored. -200, -250, -240, -950, -600, -115

LeBron's finals teams were only favored twice: +360, -175, +155, -220, +135, +190, +180, +250, +688

Watch the first couple minutes of this. I don't know what Vegas was saying, but this was absolutely the narrative. I doubt they were heavily favored.
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Re: Daryl Morey on MJ vs. Lebron 

Post#25 » by Some smartguy » Tue Dec 1, 2020 4:54 pm

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Re: Daryl Morey on MJ vs. Lebron 

Post#26 » by homecourtloss » Thu Dec 3, 2020 4:06 am

DavidDunn21 wrote:
Egg Nog wrote:
Richfield wrote:Imagine boxer A, who punches 5 times, then ducks 3 times, then punches 2 more times.

Imagine boxer B, who punches 3 times, ducks 1 time, then punches 3 more times.

Boxer A lost.

Boxer B won.

Boxer A shows more dominant stats.

Boxer B anticipated the opponent's particular movements better, knew more precisely when to duck and when to punch. They landed at better times.

Boxer B is the better boxer. He won.

If that doesn't do it for you. Think of pushing a kid on a swing. The goal is to go high. It's not about stats like how fast you push, or necessarily how hard you push. If you push at the wrong rhythm, the kid won't go very high no matter what. If you push even lightly, at just the right times, the kid flies.

Jordan knew what to do and when to do it. Stats aren't going to tell that entire story.

Not sure if Morey's stats factored in Championships, and the fact that they're the ultimate stat. And don't bring up Robert Horry, we know what this discussion is about. Superstar versus superstar.

Morey's stats didn't measure intelligence, the importance of genius, accurately if at all.


I don't see that this is an apt comparison at all. Boxers are an easier comparison because they fight one on one.

To really make a comparison in basketball we need to filter out the influence on winning/losing from teammates and the opposition to isolate one player's talent. A difficult task, certainly.

Jordan's finals teams were always heavily favored apart from '98 when they were slightly favored. -200, -250, -240, -950, -600, -115

LeBron's finals teams were only favored twice: +360, -175, +155, -220, +135, +190, +180, +250, +688

Watch the first couple minutes of this. I don't know what Vegas was saying, but this was absolutely the narrative. I doubt they were heavily favored.


Bulls were favored by every betting agency and you can look it up. The team with home court has been favored in every series other than 1993 and 1998 Bulls. Bulls were absolutely the favored and were favorites in every Finals series.
OdomFan wrote:I'd rather have Ray Allen on my team [over Curry].


Hal14 wrote:Not saying I put McHale over Duncan, but the argument can be made.
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Re: Daryl Morey on MJ vs. Lebron 

Post#27 » by JonFromVA » Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:19 pm

K_chile22 wrote:He's probably talking about proprietary stuff we have no access to and definitely not WS or VORP which are just box score derived


I'm not sure how much he has to go on, and there's no particular benefit to the NBA or an NBA team of going back and creating stats that don't exist for previous eras.

So, unless Morey cares to clarify, I'd assume he wasn't looking too hard at defensive stats for instance.

But he can look at things like "team uplift" and as we know the Bulls won 50-games and nearly made it to the finals the season Jordan "retired". I imagine the fact that LeBron is a slightly more efficient scorer, a more effective creator/passer, and rebounder than Jordan would have played a part as well in his thinking.

And while we don't have all the clutch statistics we might like to compare the two, some figures have been compiled regarding game winning/tieing shots with the game on the line - and those favor James too.

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