Debate: Melo's TS%

[Drun53]

http://www.hoopdata.com/teamoffstats.aspx

Heres a doozy..

Why is the Knicks' FG% 17th in the NBA and their TS% 7th? Which metric is closer to our actual offensive rating (pace adjusted points per 100 possessions) of 9th?

The Raptors' FG% is 8th in the NBA, which means their offense has to be good right? Nope. Their TS% is 20th and their offensive rating is 21st.

Meanwhile the Rockets are 20th in FG%, but 11th in TS% and 8th in offensive rating.

Once again TS% shows its the best metric to depict scoring efficiency. Not even close.

/thread/ethered/goodbye/I wish I didnt have to explain this BS every f*ckin TS% thread!

Of course, no one responds to this post, which basically proves Sportsguy8 and TW's entire point.

But oh noes omg numberz

[cgmw]

Who cares? We already got him. Just hope that he shows up on the defensive end.

Exactly.

But apparently you cant interrupt stat heads when they get on a roll.

I'm not a stat head. I care.

I like understanding what makes the Knicks work, and the Stat/Melo combination is our future. Like most people, I truly believe that advanced statistics are useful and have their place. But I think there's a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding on both sides when it comes to the specific issue of Carmelo's so-called "efficiency."

In this debate, Sportsguy8 and True Warrior have lots of interesting and informative ideas. However at least SG8 seems to take it way too far. It's almost as if he's advocating a position that there's a 1-to-1 correlation between TS% and NBA Championships. My hope is to learn from the "stat heads" to better understand the future of our Knicks.

Because if I just enjoyed WATCHING the games, I'd never log on to RGM. No, I prefer spending countless hours thinking about, analyzing, and rambling on about it. Sorry.

[cgmw]

http://www.hoopdata.com/teamoffstats.aspx

Heres a doozy..

Why is the Knicks' FG% 17th in the NBA and their TS% 7th? Which metric is closer to our actual offensive rating (pace adjusted points per 100 possessions) of 9th?

The Raptors' FG% is 8th in the NBA, which means their offense has to be good right? Nope. Their TS% is 20th and their offensive rating is 21st.

Meanwhile the Rockets are 20th in FG%, but 11th in TS% and 8th in offensive rating.

Once again TS% shows its the best metric to depict scoring efficiency. Not even close.

/thread/ethered/goodbye/I wish I didnt have to explain this BS every f*ckin TS% thread!

Of course, no one responds to this post, which basically proves Sportsguy8 and TW's entire point.

But oh noes omg numberz

How does that prove their point? Not trying to be a d*ck. I honestly don't understand what conclusion we should draw from Drun's statistics.

[Drun53]

http://www.hoopdata.com/teamoffstats.aspx

Heres a doozy..

Why is the Knicks' FG% 17th in the NBA and their TS% 7th? Which metric is closer to our actual offensive rating (pace adjusted points per 100 possessions) of 9th?

The Raptors' FG% is 8th in the NBA, which means their offense has to be good right? Nope. Their TS% is 20th and their offensive rating is 21st.

Meanwhile the Rockets are 20th in FG%, but 11th in TS% and 8th in offensive rating.

Once again TS% shows its the best metric to depict scoring efficiency. Not even close.

/thread/ethered/goodbye/I wish I didnt have to explain this BS every f*ckin TS% thread!

Of course, no one responds to this post, which basically proves Sportsguy8 and TW's entire point.

But oh noes omg numberz

How does that prove their point? Not trying to be a d*ck. I honestly don't understand what conclusion we should draw from Drun's statistics.

You're not being a dick at all. And those are TW's statistics, not mine; I just happen to agree with them.

His point is that a team's TS% is much closer to the actual reality of how effective a team's offense actually is than a team's FG%. And if a guy in our offense who is so ball-dominant is negatively skewing our TS%, that might greatly impact our offensive efficiency rating.

Though to be fair, TS% actually helps Melo, since he gets to the line, but it's still well below his peers whom have similar usage rates.

[cgmw]

^
Wait, what?

TS% is a better indicator of offensive rating than FG%. Therefore what?

[towelie]

Of course, no one responds to this post, which basically proves Sportsguy8 and TW's entire point.

But oh noes omg numberz

How does that prove their point? Not trying to be a d*ck. I honestly don't understand what conclusion we should draw from Drun's statistics.

It's been like that every time TS% is brought up on these boards. Instead of extrapolating some conclusion from the data, the board instead obsesses over the value of the metric itself. "TS% is the best efficiency metric!" Yeah, so? Don't really see too many debate that point.

And TW + company don't really ever draw a conclusion from the data except a simple, "Melo needs to be more efficient." Yeah, no ****. Everyone would love Melo to be more efficient. But are they arguing that Billups should take the last shot? Should we have kept Gallo cause he has a higher TS%? I really have no idea what is ever being debated in a TS% thread, except the value of TS% itself, which has been beaten to death.

[Drun53]

^
Wait, what?

TS% is a better indicator of offensive rating than FG%. Therefore what?

Well there are many people who think TS% is a "garbage" stat, because it's just some nerdy formula calculated by some 40-year-old virgin with no life.

But it's actually a stat that has plenty of usefulness. Melo's TS% is well below his peers with similar usage rates, plus he's not getting the assists that some of them do.

We all know he has the talent and ability to become more efficient. And we really hope he does so. Because, yes, we are 3-2 since the trade, which is nice. But I don't think the Knicks are going to go very far in the playoffs if Melo continues his, at times, very poor shot selection that is resulting in these low efficiency numbers.

The stats show that efficiency IS a very important indicator for how good a team's offense is.

[Drun53]

Of course, no one responds to this post, which basically proves Sportsguy8 and TW's entire point.

But oh noes omg numberz

How does that prove their point? Not trying to be a d*ck. I honestly don't understand what conclusion we should draw from Drun's statistics.

It's been like that every time TS% is brought up on these boards. Instead of extrapolating some conclusion from the data, the board instead obsesses over the value of the metric itself. "TS% is the best efficiency metric!" Yeah, so? Don't really see too many debate that point.

And TW + company don't really ever draw a conclusion from the data except a simple, "Melo needs to be more efficient." Yeah, no ****. Everyone would love Melo to be more efficient. But are they arguing that Billups should take the last shot? Should we have kept Gallo cause he has a higher TS%? I really have no idea what is ever being debated in a TS% thread, except the value of TS% itself, which has been beaten to death.

To be fair, everyone, including TW and myself agree that TS% is not nearly as relevant for a particular player taking the last shot of a game. It's throughout the course of the game that we use it for.

We all know that Melo helps the team--we are not debating that. We just think he could help MORE if he displayed a much better sense of shot selection. People here seem to think that Melo's play has been "great" so far, but TW and I, among others, don't seem to think so.

[Drun53]

I probably shouldn't have posted, since TW makes the point better than I do. His long post on page 10 regarding the "calculation" of TS not being so "nerdy" is basically what a lot of people are trying to say.

And I actually have to leave soon, so if people respond to what I said, it's not because I'm dodging questions...I just really have to go.

[cgmw]

The stats show that efficiency IS a very important indicator for how good a team's offense is.

Ok, let's say I believe you. Which I do, actually. I'm not question TS% or its value. What I'm questioning is its relevance as it applies to Carmelo.

Specifically, your conclusion seems flawed for the following reasons:

1. Carmelo's individual TS% may or may not drag down the team's %. There's a distinct possibility that the double-teams open up easier shots for his teammates. Something that has been brought up at least a dozen times in this thread with no rebuttal (that I remember).

2. Carmelo can be relied upon to score such a high volume of points that it offsets some of the efficiency problems.

3. Unlike other volume scorers, Carmelo's ability to get a basket WHEN IT MATTERS is extraordinarily rare. Not simply in the last 24 seconds of games, but at any point when his team really needs a bucket. To me, this differentiates him from volume scorers like Monta Ellis because Carmelo is 6'8 and on another level. It also differentiates him from STAT because Carmelo doesn't need to rely on an effective entry pass. He can simply take the ball up the court or receive it near half court. The only other comparable players are LeBron, Kobe, and Durant.

4. IMO there are exactly 4 players in the NBA (actually, in the universe) who can get a quality shot no matter the situation. This extraordinarily rare talent is worth more than whatever conclusion we can draw from TS% except the basic "NO SH*T SHERLOCK" argument that Carmelo would be a better player if he made more shots.

[hobojoe2131]

Long 2's are by far the worst shot in the game statistically. Once defenders realize that you can hit an open one, there is no reason to take one. Ever.

What? That seems like a flawed premise followed up by an extreme conclusion.

Both STAT & Melo shoot jump shots from the same point on the floor from which they also initiate drives. This is what commentators are talking about when they say "impossible to guard."

If you step up on them, they will drive by you. If you lay off, they will hit a jumper. The long jumpshot is an absolutely 100% necessary component of both players' offensive game.

My point is that it's an inefficient shot. Once you get defenders to respect your midrange game hence, play you up, you are better off driving by them.

[stuporman]

When your team needs a bucket and the game has slowed to a half court crawl Melo is one of the top 5 guys in the league you want to have to get that bucket. Period.

[can o peas]

When evaluating a player overall, TS% has to be tied to Usage rate. When just looking at percentages, TS% is better than FG%.

In any case, if Melo were shooting 48% this year (which he has done before), he would have a TS% of around 57.2%, which no one would really get on him for. If he also increased his 3 point shooting to 40% along with that it'd be like 57.7.

I don't think it's primarily a big man stat though, as Chauncey Billups is currently 8th overall in the NBA.

And yeah, the two point shot from 16-23 feet is probably the least efficient shot, but because of that it also is the one defenses are willing to give up (clogging the paint and covering the three point line). So because you take what the defense gives you, it winds up being a valuable shot.

I think we can all agree though that even though Melo has scored quite a bunch in his games here, he hasn't exactly wowed anyone with his scoring yet because it has just been basically inefficient high volume scoring. I don't think this is typical for him though and hopefully he breaks out soon, otherwise we'll see a lot more of these topics.

[SportsGuy8]

Absolutely critical to this debate. Sportsguy8, how do you respond to this:

1. Carmelo Anthony increases the efficiency of his surrounding teammates.
2. A high team TS% does not necessarily make you a contender.

I'm basing this second proposition off the fact that Denver is first in the NBA in team TS%, while Phoenix & New York are both higher than the Lakers.

1. Oh c'mon man, I stated like 5 times already in this topic that I agree that Melo's presence increases the efficiency of his teammates! And you seem to ignore it every single time!

I'm arguing that if he took smarter shots, smarter decisions, it would be even MUCH MORE beneficial! He'd score more efficiently himself, and he'd also have an even higher impact on his teammates!

Or to put it differently, so it'll be easier to understand. Let's suppose, for arguments sake, that Melo's current game increases his team's record by 10 wins. I'm arguing that if he played smarter, more efficiently, that increase could be even up to 20 wins! (just an example)

I repeat yet again: I do think Melo's presence adds to the win-rate, it adds quite a bit ... but it doesn't add nearly as much as it could, if he played smarter, more efficient basketball! And that's a thing that could prevail in the end, that could keep the Knicks from ever being able to truly contend!

Actually, I'm not even sure why I'm responding. You basically completely ignored my answer to this same question the previous times, why would this be any different ...
Do I need to use caps-locks, haha?

2. No, but you can't truly be a contender WITHOUT a high team TS%, unless you play some UNREAL defense! Worse your defense is, higher your offensive efficiency has to be.

And actually, Suns, Nuggets & Knicks PROVE this whole debate! If it wasn't for their highly efficient offenses, they'd all be lottery teams! They're not lottery teams simply because of their offensive efficiency! Their offensive efficiency allows them to be decent teams even though they suck on the defensive end!

There's a common trend among true contenders. High efficiency AND top defense! And worse your defense is, higher your efficiency has to be (and vice-versa).

Who cares? We already got him. Just hope that he shows up on the defensive end.

Exactly.

But apparently you cant interrupt stat heads when they get on a roll.

I'm not a stat head. I care.

I like understanding what makes the Knicks work, and the Stat/Melo combination is our future. Like most people, I truly believe that advanced statistics are useful and have their place. But I think there's a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding on both sides when it comes to the specific issue of Carmelo's so-called "efficiency."

In this debate, Sportsguy8 and True Warrior have lots of interesting and informative ideas. However at least SG8 seems to take it way too far. It's almost as if he's advocating a position that there's a 1-to-1 correlation between TS% and NBA Championships. My hope is to learn from the "stat heads" to better understand the future of our Knicks.

Because if I just enjoyed WATCHING the games, I'd never log on to RGM. No, I prefer spending countless hours thinking about, analyzing, and rambling on about it. Sorry.

I think you're totally misunderstanding the points I'm trying to make.

I'm arguing that based on the Knicks' lack of defense, they need to be VERY efficient on the offensive side, to really be close to contending. And by "very efficient" I mean the most efficient team in the league! Actually, they need to be the most efficient team in the league BY FAR!

In a vacuum (equal amounts of shots, rebounds & turnovers for both teams), the team with the higher efficiency will end up winning the game. That's a fact!
However, in reality, the Knicks are going to lose the rebounding game, while also allowing opponents get shots with higher efficiency because of their poor defense.
Due to these facts (you can't really deny that they're going to happen), the Knicks need to be HIGHLY efficient! More efficient than the Suns were in the past decade!

Will you deny that there's a correlation between efficiency and winning?
Obviously, high efficiency isn't a guarantee for anything. If you're playing kindergarten defense, no efficiency will help you ... The same for defense. Your team can be the best defensive team in the history of the league, if their TS% is under 50%, they're not getting anywhere!

Who cares? We already got him. Just hope that he shows up on the defensive end.

If you want this team to ever be able to truly contend, YOU SHOULD CARE!

[SportsGuy8]

I see some TS% haters showed up, claiming yet again that TS% supporters' conclusions all base on TS%.

I understand how people can be against TS% when looking at individual players ... it really doesn't tell the whole story.
However, there's a big difference between players' TS% and team's TS%! Whole team's TS% is a VERY ACCURATE measure of teams offensive game! You just need to add the turnovers and offensive rebounds, and you have COMPLETE DATE of a team's offensive game!
Will/can anyone deny that?

P.s.: Also, I think we should start writing "points per possession" instead of TS%, as so many people have this bias against TS%, not realizing that it basically means points per possession.

[dk7th]

(A) melo should be better than he is given the versatility he has as a scorer. as has been mentioned dozens of times, the problem is his shot selection. not every shot you can create is necessarily a good shot. the "degree of difficulty" argument is self-defeating-- why take a harder, lower-percentage shot when you can just as easily pass the ball and contribute to a higher percentage easier shot?

if he improved his shot selection it would mean that he would (1) take fewer but better shots and (2) he would be keeping the ball moving, keeping his teammates involved and instilling confidence and synergy and chemistry through sharing. if he worked on this aspect of his game he would shoot closer to 17-18 shots per game and the ball would be distributed more equitably, raising the confidence of his teammates and making them defer less and be more aggressive. would it translate to more assists? perhaps not which leads to the next point--

(B) two things hold his team's back as well: his below-par defense and his refusal to use the pick and roll game and go iso instead. if he could learn to use the pick and roll two opportunities arise: one is that he will not be shooting over double teams and two he would be able to gather more assists off the pick and roll. "that's not his game, dk7th." i know it isn't but is could be and frankly should be.

bottom line is winning in the playoffs. he has had first round exits every year but one. his fans can window dress that any way they want to but as the putative best player on those teams and with an astronomical usage rate he has not made his teammates better in all that time-- or he has fallen short in that regard, to the point that good playoff teams can force him into being even more inefficient than he already is. and placing blame on his "supporting cast" is a non-starter and the flimsiest of excuses.

look at it this way: since games in the postseason are most often decided by 5 or fewer points, that means that the players with the highest usage rates had better be excellent at using discretion, because all you need to do is force the bryants and carmelos of the world to start taking more shots over the course of the game-- not the final minutes, mind you-- and the opponents will more likely win.

i believe carmelo is a bit overrated and that he is closer to a zero-sum player than most fans realize-- he's a good regular-season performer but he gets exposed in the playoffs and that is where his ts% numbers and his lackadaisical defense hurt his team. he may end up having a similar career to carter and macgrady if he doesn't learn to play more of the facilitator and take smarter shots.

of course i look forward to being proven wrong but as some have insisted, the stats don't lie, and in this case back up what the eyes behold.

[j4remi]

When evaluating a player overall, TS% has to be tied to Usage rate. When just looking at percentages, TS% is better than FG%.

In any case, if Melo were shooting 48% this year (which he has done before), he would have a TS% of around 57.2%, which no one would really get on him for. If he also increased his 3 point shooting to 40% along with that it'd be like 57.7.

I don't think it's primarily a big man stat though, as Chauncey Billups is currently 8th overall in the NBA.

And yeah, the two point shot from 16-23 feet is probably the least efficient shot, but because of that it also is the one defenses are willing to give up (clogging the paint and covering the three point line). So because you take what the defense gives you, it winds up being a valuable shot.

I think we can all agree though that even though Melo has scored quite a bunch in his games here, he hasn't exactly wowed anyone with his scoring yet because it has just been basically inefficient high volume scoring. I don't think this is typical for him though and hopefully he breaks out soon, otherwise we'll see a lot more of these topics.

This is the best post in the entire thread.

[don't panac]

problem is that not only the 2pt jumpers are in general inefficient, but Melo has been particularly bad at them in his games as a knick:

vs hornets: 3/11
vs magic: 1/12
vs heat: 5/14
vs cavs 4/15
vs bucks 3/12

total 16/64= 25% that's pretty bad

one can just hope it has all to do with adjustment and the elbow injury.

also, with all the talking about him improving other people ts% around him (which is likely true) shouldn't his own ts% similarly go up because he now has amare next to him?

[cgmw]

Solid points Sportsguy. Now if only you weren't a high volume, low-efficiency exclamation point user!

[SportsGuy8]

Oh, just to illustrate everything with an example.
Let's suppose we have a game with teams A and B. Both teams end up having equal amounts of possessions, turnovers ... just their efficiency is different.

Both teams end up with 80 FGAs and 40 FTs, equaling 100 possessions. (let's suppose there are no 3pt fouls, AND-1s and technical FTs, just to make the calculations simple)

Team A has TS% of 54% in this game, while team B has TS% of 57%. The end result will be 108 - 114! No matter what!
My point is that at the end of the day, TS% will have a DIRECT influence on how many points the team will end up scoring! If team A wants to beat team B in this scenario (with other things being equal), they have to have a BETTER TS%! Simple as that.

Now, lets implement rebounding. If your team gets outrebounded (and the Knicks WILL get outrebounded vs. teams like Celtics & Lakers), you need to make that up by having a much higher TS% compared to your opponent!

If the Knicks ever want to beat those teams in the playoffs, they'll have to score SUBSTANTIALLY MORE POINTS PER SHOT/POSSESSION than them! This is not some advanced math, this is SIMPLE LOGIC and common sense!