Debate: Melo's TS%

[seren]

Who cares? We already got him. Just hope that he shows up on the defensive end.

If you want this team to ever be able to truly contend, YOU SHOULD CARE!

Melo's efficiency on the offensive end will not determine whether this team will be a true contender.

[SportsGuy8]

Solid points Sportsguy. Now if only you weren't a high volume, low-efficiency exclamation point user!

Yeah, I know. Just disregard my !!!'s. I don't use them the way most people do. To me they're just "bigger, firmer dots", haha.

[SportsGuy8]

Who cares? We already got him. Just hope that he shows up on the defensive end.

If you want this team to ever be able to truly contend, YOU SHOULD CARE!

Melo's efficiency on the offensive end will not determine whether this team will be a true contender.

The whole team's efficiency WILL, though!
And if Melo's efficiency is too low, others won't be able to make up for that! Even if they keep getting wide open looks because of Melo.

[j4remi]

Oh, just to illustrate everything with an example.
Let's suppose we have a game with teams A and B. Both teams end up having equal amounts of possessions, turnovers ... just their efficiency is different.

Both teams end up with 80 FGAs and 40 FTs, equaling 100 possessions. (let's suppose there are no 3pt fouls, AND-1s and technical FTs, just to make the calculations simple)

Team A has TS% of 54% in this game, while team B has TS% of 57%. The end result will be 108 - 114! No matter what!
My point is that at the end of the day, TS% will have a DIRECT influence on how many points the team will end up scoring! If team A wants to beat team B in this scenario (with other things being equal), they have to have a BETTER TS%! Simple as that.

Now, lets implement rebounding. If your team gets outrebounded (and the Knicks WILL get outrebounded vs. teams like Celtics & Lakers), you need to make that up by having a much higher TS% compared to your opponent!

If the Knicks ever want to beat those teams in the playoffs, they'll have to score SUBSTANTIALLY MORE POINTS PER SHOT/POSSESSION than them! This is not some advanced math, this is SIMPLE LOGIC and common sense!

Or they could play better D leading to a lower TS% for opponents, probably also to more fast breaks and easy buckets which contributes to their TS% and to the same end result. Not saying more points per possession is a bad thing, but why completely write off defensive influence with this scenario?

Edit: To simplify...in your scenario the team that won would not be lauded for taking "smarter shots" but for playing better defense when it counted 9 times out of 10 I'm betting.

[SportsGuy8]

I'm not writing it off ... I'm actually including it, but in favor of opposing teams.

Do you think there's any realistic way this team will ever be able to play better defense than the best teams? I don't!
Same for rebounding ...

The only way the Knicks would have a chance, is if they get a top defensive BEAST (C). But it's virtually impossible to get such players on the cheap! Actually, it's almost impossible to even get such a guy for much less than 10 million per season!

We need to face the truth. With Melo&Amare taking up around 2/3 of the cap (not even mentioning that this team will always also need a top PG next to them), it's almost impossible for this team to ever be able to play better defense & outrebound the top teams.
So, we have to be realistic. The only realistic way for this team to be a true contender, is to be a far superior (more efficient) offensive team!

[cgmw]

Playing under D'Antoni and alongside Amar'e (Bullups, and Fields), I have no doubt Carmelo will eventually find his rhythm and become a more efficient scorer.

Having a lineup that features a bunch of defensive role players like Fields, Turiaf, TD, Carter and Jeffries also leads me to believe that the so-called "defensive efficiency" problems (is there really such a thing?) are overstated.

[j4remi]

Playing under D'Antoni and alongside Amar'e (Bullups, and Fields), I have no doubt Carmelo will eventually find his rhythm and become a more efficient scorer.

Having a lineup that features a bunch of defensive role players like Fields, Turiaf, TD, Carter and Jeffries also leads me to believe that the so-called "defensive efficiency" problems (is there really such a thing?) are overstated.

This is exactly how I feel. People that don't think we can defend...I think will be surprised in the post season. Melo will be more efficient then he has been...it's clear that he's not just missing bad shots, but shots he commonly makes.

[cgmw]

Specifically, I look for Melo's efficiency to rise by:

1. Using Amar'e as a passer in the high post (give & go);
2. Learning how to spot up from the 45 when Amar'e/Billups run the pick & roll;
3. Getting more transition buckets when the defense starts gelling;
4. Better timing on weakside cuts/spot ups when Amar'e has the ball/gets doubled;
5. Better passing to Amar'e when Carmelo gets doubled

[j4remi]

Specifically, I look for Melo's efficiency to rise by:

1. Using Amar'e as a passer in the high post (give & go);
2. Learning how to spot up from the 45 when Amar'e/Billups run the pick & roll;
3. Getting more transition buckets when the defense starts gelling;
4. Better timing on weakside cuts/spot ups when Amar'e has the ball/gets doubled;
5. Better passing to Amar'e when Carmelo gets doubled

And hopefully Mike plays him in post-up situations dammit.

[cgmw]

^
I don't see why not. It's been happening. My bigger hope is that Amar'e learns how/when to cut or spot up when Carmelo has his back to the basket. All these things will take time, but the framework for an absolutely lethal offense is in place right now.

[SportsGuy8]

Playing under D'Antoni and alongside Amar'e (Bullups, and Fields), I have no doubt Carmelo will eventually find his rhythm and become a more efficient scorer.

Having a lineup that features a bunch of defensive role players like Fields, Turiaf, TD, Carter and Jeffries also leads me to believe that the so-called "defensive efficiency" problems (is there really such a thing?) are overstated.

Yeah, I agree. It obviously won't stay as bad as it is! It's only a couple of games, after-all ...

However, he played in a similar system in Denver, so we'll see how high he can bring his efficiency.
If only D'Antoni wasn't such a "player's coach" ... Melo will never truly hear it from him for taking bad shots.

Fields' already very good efficiency can get even higher next year (right now I think he hit rookie wall, so I'm not really worried), and that will be a nice start. Hopefully others follow (I'm looking at you TD! ). And we all know that Billups already is incredibly efficient!

If Melo&Amare start playing good 2-man game, I'm sure Melo's efficiency will go up ... but the question is: how much? Will it go up enough?
He was able to get his efficiency to a very respected level playing next to IVERSON of all people! If he can work well with Amare, and bring his efficiency to even higher levels, this team could get close to where it needs to be, in terms of offensive efficiency.

With Melo at 57%, Amare at 59-60%, Billups and Fields in low 60s ... the Knicks could be the most offensively efficient team in the league! Lots of IF's, though.

P.s.: As for post-ups. D'Antoni doesn't like them too much as they don't go along with his SSOL.
But perhaps they can use them after a missed opportunity to execute SSOL.

[SportsGuy8]

As far as stats go? Guys...go kiss a girl, eat a double whopper with extra cheese, surf some (good) porn...

Just one of your many posts in this topic with a condescending tone! Really mature ... especially for a MOD.

Actually, look at the name of this topic! This is a topic about Melo's efficiency, Melo's TS%! For you to come in and write many posts with this exact same "stats are for geeks with no life" tone, while also being a MOD, is just ridiculous (to use the kindest word possible).

If you don't agree with something, with how a person used stats to support his arguments, make good COUNTER-arguments WHY do you think that person is wrong! That's how debating works ...
Instead of saying "we true fans watch games", "stats are for geeks with not life" ...

P.s.: You have close to 50,000 posts on this forum! Isn't that just "a bit" ironic?
I think you're the one who should be listening to your own advice!

[cgmw]

^
Oh, snap! Nerd fight!

Open parens. Ib4tl. Close parens.

[SportsGuy8]

What fight? I'm just pointing it out.
I'm sure he'll take it with good spirits.

[moocow007]

As far as stats go? Guys...go kiss a girl, eat a double whopper with extra cheese, surf some (good) porn...

Just one of your many posts in this topic with a condescending tone! Really mature ... especially for a MOD.

Actually, look at the name of this topic! This is a topic about Melo's efficiency, Melo's TS%! For you to come in and write many posts with this exact same "stats are for geeks with no life" tone, while also being a MOD, is just ridiculous (to use the kindest word possible).

If you don't agree with something, with how a person used stats to support his arguments, make good COUNTER-arguments WHY do you think that person is wrong! That's how debating works ...
Instead of saying "we true fans watch games", "stats are for geeks with not life" ...

P.s.: You have close to 50,000 posts on this forum! Isn't that just "a bit" ironic?
I think you're the one who should be listening to your own advice!

How exactly is this condescending? You taking offense by my remark proves my point exactly...go out...kiss a girl...eat a whopper...or eat a girl and kiss a whopper...up to you guys.

[Knicker23]

Melo takes shots to get his points.. will always be that way. His offensive capabilities and style will always allow him to be that type of player.. So long as he doesn't go 2/20 or 4/24, and gets his points each night, preferably when we need them [as he usually does] - i'm fine with it... It's not like we have other guys beyond Amare and Billups, on most nights that would make you want the best offensive guy in the league to pass over shooting... Though Melo is so pure that I don't really notice other than when putting his game under a magnifying glass what shooting % was... he isn't often so bad that you notice it, and he makes the big shots that you do notice.. and that works for me.

[SportsGuy8]

As far as stats go? Guys...go kiss a girl, eat a double whopper with extra cheese, surf some (good) porn...

Just one of your many posts in this topic with a condescending tone! Really mature ... especially for a MOD.

Actually, look at the name of this topic! This is a topic about Melo's efficiency, Melo's TS%! For you to come in and write many posts with this exact same "stats are for geeks with no life" tone, while also being a MOD, is just ridiculous (to use the kindest word possible).

If you don't agree with something, with how a person used stats to support his arguments, make good COUNTER-arguments WHY do you think that person is wrong! That's how debating works ...
Instead of saying "we true fans watch games", "stats are for geeks with not life" ...

P.s.: You have close to 50,000 posts on this forum! Isn't that just "a bit" ironic?
I think you're the one who should be listening to your own advice!

How exactly is this condescending? You taking offense by my remark proves my point exactly...go out...kiss a girl...eat a whopper...or eat a girl and kiss a whopper...up to you guys.

I'm not even sure why or how I'd take offense.
I was just "targeting" your attitude towards stats and people who use stats ... in a topic that's basically all about stats.

It's just a bit annoying how every time we have a true debate around "advanced" numbers, there's always a few people who come in with a "I don't need no stupid stats" attitude, totally dismissing them ... without even making any true arguments how and why do they dismiss/dispute those stats!
Especially when those stats don't fit their "agenda" (here I'm talking in general, not targeting anyone in particular, or anyone in this topic).

P.s.: No kiss for this geek "tonight". It's already past midnight here ...
Funny thing: I was asked to go out, but was too lazy. So that kinda proves your point, actually, when I think about it ...

[melostat]

melo has a low TS because he takes the last shot when his teammates cant get open..whereas lebron will hold the ball for 24 seconds to have a good look or can make a pass to open man..And if he cant get open, he will pass it to his teammate rather than taking it so if his teammate can shoot it, he will get the assist..if not, then his TS will not be affected..as a team player, i rather have melo than lebron..no wonder coaches dont like him during the olympics

[melostat]

and ts is an advantage for players who gets more superstar calls..

if durant attempts and misses and gets superstar call then it is a reduced field goal attempt plus a free throw which increases TS%

whereas melo attempts and misses then does not get superstar call then it is an increase field goal attempt that decreases TS%

[dk7th]

it's a team game.

the simplest response is that great teams defeat great players.

carmelo's antecedent is wilt chamberlain not bill russell. wilt was dominant but a loser. he needed/insisted that the offense go "through" him but it caused his teams to underachieve in a team sport. was he just that good? no, apparently not. otherwise he would have won more.

dominant scorer does not equal good player or winning player.

take a look at wilt's fg%, eFG%, and TS%. it is instructive in terms of understanding the shallowness of the dominant scorer as it correlates to winning titles. his finest season was when he shot the best percentage at a fantastic 68% and had the second-most assists-- a lebron-like 7.3 per game. but it is crucial to note that he also cut back his shot attempts from the mid-20s to the mid-teens.

but his overall career he shot a shockingly low fg% of closer to 54% and was a lousy assists man for someone who always had open teammates.