Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable

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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#21 » by ElGee » Fri May 13, 2011 5:57 pm

EvanZ wrote:
ElGee wrote:
Also, the numbers I'm citing are numbers, they aren't *me.* I'm just looking at what happens over the course of the games, in the same way one would tally FG% and points. What does a totally non-causal measurement, like APM, say about this?



Some of your stats are subjective. Specifically, defensive errors. All humans have subconscious (and often conscious) biases. A proper scientific experiment would be to blind yourself from the player, so you wouldn't know who you were tracking. Obviously, that is not feasible. Still, when you tally "blow-bys" and "missed rotations", that's subject to error. I can't imagine that if we got 5 guys in a room and watched a game that there would be universal agreement without having some discussion first. If you are claiming otherwise, I would be skeptical. If a Laker fan were to tally these stats, we might see different results than if a Miami or San Antonio fan did.

This is not to say I believe you are intentionally attributing more or less errors to any particular player. But it is very easy for humans to let even the most subtle biases influence the outcomes of their measurements.

I happen to be very acutely aware of these issues, as someone who is a scientist in academia doing research and supervising students. I make it very clear to them the issues with subjective vs. objective measurements and how we must fortify ourselves against these kinds of biases. It's not an insignificant problem.


Oh, as I've discussed before, not all of these things are black and white. There's human error too. But what I'm doing is no different than any scorekeeper around an NBA arena. Assists are subjective - there is a total gray area. I've seen games in which FGA's weren't even properly tallied. Heck, sometimes steals are called blocks and vice-versa. It's all part of the process, no doubt.

Simply put, my goal is to make every defensive error explainable to a neutral observer. I don't think there's a defensive error I don't watch multiple times to accomplish this goal. Does that mean it's perfect? Goodness no. Every once in a while there's a damn play I can't figure out myself (no error would be tallied), but in terms of anti-player biases in my scoring, I'm less concerned about that since most of the time the process is "how did a player get so open? who was guarding him? what's that guy's damn number? Oh it's 24."


EvanZ wrote:
ElGee wrote:I can't tell if you're being condescending.



Not at all. Sorry if I came off that way.


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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#22 » by EvanZ » Fri May 13, 2011 6:02 pm

ElGee wrote:
Simply put, my goal is to make every defensive error explainable to a neutral observer. I don't think there's a defensive error I don't watch multiple times to accomplish this goal. Does that mean it's perfect? Goodness no. Every once in a while there's a damn play I can't figure out myself (no error would be tallied), but in terms of anti-player biases in my scoring, I'm less concerned about that since most of the time the process is "how did a player get so open? who was guarding him? what's that guy's damn number? Oh it's 24."




Just curious about something...is it very different doing the analysis for Dallas' zone? How does that play out? Are there fewer defensive errors?
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#23 » by ElGee » Fri May 13, 2011 7:51 pm

EvanZ wrote:
ElGee wrote:
Simply put, my goal is to make every defensive error explainable to a neutral observer. I don't think there's a defensive error I don't watch multiple times to accomplish this goal. Does that mean it's perfect? Goodness no. Every once in a while there's a damn play I can't figure out myself (no error would be tallied), but in terms of anti-player biases in my scoring, I'm less concerned about that since most of the time the process is "how did a player get so open? who was guarding him? what's that guy's damn number? Oh it's 24."




Just curious about something...is it very different doing the analysis for Dallas' zone? How does that play out? Are there fewer defensive errors?


Yes absolutely. I've discussed this on the blog in comments before. Zones are a pain -- the same general rules still apply (ie don't give up open layups, and from there, if you can, don't give up open shots.) Sometimes it's clear in a zone if someone misses a rotation (usually at the rim/in the lane) or if they are beat off the bounce.

Otherwise, the biggest problem with zones is when team's overload a side, because the defense is basically conceding an outside shot. I mean, this is the nature of a zone, so it's less prone to breakdowns and more likely to surrender unguarded jump shots by design.
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#24 » by Vincent 666 » Sat May 14, 2011 7:53 pm

Kobe with another all defensive team selection and the haters are MAD.

You can just feel the hate coming through the posts lol

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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#25 » by AussieBuck » Sat May 14, 2011 11:38 pm

Vincent 666 wrote:Kobe with another all defensive team selection and the haters are MAD.

You can just feel the hate coming through the posts lol

Life is good.

Stats board not fanboy board.
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#26 » by Doctor MJ » Sun May 15, 2011 12:54 am

AussieBuck wrote:
Vincent 666 wrote:Kobe with another all defensive team selection and the haters are MAD.

You can just feel the hate coming through the posts lol

Life is good.


Stats board not fanboy board.


+1

The question of whether I'm a "hater" is a debatable, but the reason why I spend most of my Kobe discussion arguing against him has everything to do with the fact that the stats always make Kobe look worse than his supporters claim.
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#27 » by Doctor MJ » Sun May 15, 2011 12:55 am

btw, enjoyed your conversation LG/EZ.
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#28 » by TrueLAfan » Mon May 16, 2011 5:57 pm

Nice original post, DoctorMJ. I don't know if "most overrated defenderr imaginable" is right--but it really doesn’t surprise me. IMO, the two things about defense that are critical—and hard to account for—are

1) Defense is only somewhat statistically quantifiable—but not totally. And, like DoctorMJ said, a lot of the stats that people look at aren’t 100% connected to defensive prowess.
2) Some players just don’t put forth 100% defensive effort all the time.

I totally agree that the All-D awards are bad. They seem to be much, much more reliant on reputation than, say, MVP or All-NBA awards. I think the statistical side of it is an issue. Defense is largely about negation, which is sometimes hard to show. That’s even more true when you’ve got someone whose primary defensive strength is keeping the ball away for his man and/or forcing his man into turnovers. John Havlicek did that by overplaying a ton and physically dogging his opponent. My guess is that Hondo’s opponents shot close to as well as they usually did…they just didn’t shoot as much. They may even have gone to the line more often. Hondo didn’t get a huge amount steals or blocks. But his opponents probably turned the ball over an extra time or two per game, and got 10-15% less shot opportunities. That’s a massive difference in reality; bigger than it would be statiscally.

And, yeah, the reputation thing for defenvie awards is really ridiculous. A year or so ago, I got into an argument with another poster about the defense of Mutombo on the 2001 Sixers. The other poster just didn’t get the fact that, although Mutombo was still a good man defender (i.e. he could still stand there and be tall and wide), he couldn’t rotate over, and since the other primary frontcourt player on the Sixers was Tyrone Hill—also a big slow guy best suited to man D—the Sixers D really suffered when Theo Ratliff (at the time, a mobile C that switched over and was a terrific help defender) went down. I think that the mindset/reputation of Mutombo was worth a lot more than his actual value. Mutombo was DPOY in 2001.

But I think #2 is also a big thing with Kobe. I think Kobe’s physical skills have started their inevitable decline. And, as a result, he realizes that he only has a certain amount of energy he can draw on in a game, a month, or a season. This happened to West later in his career too, but not to the extent that it’s happened to Kobe. It used to be that when Kobe was focused on D—which was, to be honest, about 50% of the time—he was awesome. And the other 50% of the time, he was just average … his physical ability got him out of some trouble. On thwe whole, that still made him a very good defender, But as he dipped a bit, he’s much more of an average defender, at best, overall. When he’s focused on D and on the right guy, he’s still very good. Not great, but very good. But that isn’t that often any more. And the rest of the time, he’s either not focused on D and doesn’t have the quicks to make up for it (like he once did) or he’s simply guarding a guy that he can’t stay with like could when he was young. I remember watching Kevin Martin against Kobe this year, and thinking Kobe looked kind of lost. That didn‘t happen much, or at all, in 2001, or 2005.
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#29 » by Nivek » Mon May 16, 2011 8:59 pm

Just to chime in here -- I used to track individual defense for Wizards game over the course of 3 seasons. It was a ton of work, yielded great results, BUT there were always subjective plays. I tried to score plays the same way regardless of who was involved and regardless of the outcome of the plays, but I know I wasn't always successful.

Another issue was what to track. The more information I recorded, the more information I saw could be tracked. I was tracking ball movement, offensive play type, deflections, shots defended, turnovers forced, steal attempts and some other stuff -- and I still wasn't getting "everything." I never did figure out a good way to track shot denial -- when a guy defends his opponent (or closes out) so well that the offensive player can't/won't even take a shot. And shot denial is HUGELY important.

One of the biggest things I learned is that defensive analysis is woefully inadequate. Just the talk about matchups is basically wrong -- it sounds good, but it's pretty close to fiction. Defense really is about teamwork. It's virtually impossible to a good job on screen/roll, for example, without coordinated teamwork.

An example I wrote about for SI.com was a playoff game between Washington and Chicago. Arenas and Hinrich were both "matched up" at PG. They played about the same number of minutes, with similar rotations. Arenas used 21 possessions. After accounting for help defense and switches, Hinrich -- who was Gil's "matchup" -- was responsible for 7 of Arenas's offensive possessions.
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#30 » by EvanZ » Mon May 16, 2011 9:10 pm

OT alert!

Kevin, I noticed you wrote about Nick Young a little while ago and his long two point shots. I actually think that's a strength of his.I found that he ranked #11 in what I call unassisted FG% from 16-23 (essentially FG% that accounts for the assisted rate). It seems natural to me that since he's their best shooter from that range (clearly, compared to Wall), he should be taking the majority of those shots. It results in a worse percentage for him, but it benefits the team. Do you take that into account in your analysis?

In general, what do you think of Nick Young's game at this point in his career? Would you advocate Washington re-signing him? He's actually a guy who I've had on my radar for a possible Warriors acquisition. Just wondering your thoughts. :)
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#31 » by Jay24 » Tue May 17, 2011 1:53 am

Vincent 666 wrote:Kobe with another all defensive team selection and the haters are MAD.

You can just feel the hate coming through the posts lol

Life is good.

+1

lol @ OP being a Laker fan. Guy might be the biggest Kobe-hater on realgm. :lol:
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#32 » by Nivek » Tue May 17, 2011 7:15 pm

EvanZ wrote:OT alert!

Kevin, I noticed you wrote about Nick Young a little while ago and his long two point shots. I actually think that's a strength of his.I found that he ranked #11 in what I call unassisted FG% from 16-23 (essentially FG% that accounts for the assisted rate). It seems natural to me that since he's their best shooter from that range (clearly, compared to Wall), he should be taking the majority of those shots. It results in a worse percentage for him, but it benefits the team. Do you take that into account in your analysis?


The thing with Young's long 2s is that his percentage from that range dropped significantly once he became the starter. For the season, he shot .456 on long 2s, which is pretty good. Before he became a starter, he shot .574 -- as a starter: .412. Which is pretty much in line with what he shot previously in his career (.396, .404, .406).

Now, MANY Wizards fans will argue that Young's dropoff was because of injury. I don't buy that, but folks can form their own opinions on the matter. As for helping the team, anyone who made shots of any kind helped the offense last season. Young can make shots. His overall value as a "helper" is iffy because the ball stops with him. When he gets the ball, his first and only thought is getting a shot -- he rarely passes unless he's unable to get into position to take a shot, and then his passes are usually pass-outs, not passes that set up teammates for a score.

In general, what do you think of Nick Young's game at this point in his career? Would you advocate Washington re-signing him? He's actually a guy who I've had on my radar for a possible Warriors acquisition. Just wondering your thoughts. :)


What do I think of his game? I like watching him on offense -- especially when he's having a good night. He's quick, agile, leaps well and has a natural lean back to his jumper. Combine all that with his length (6-7 with a 7-foot wingspan) and he can be a tough cover. As noted above, he's not much of a passer, although I would not describe him as selfish.

His defense is oddly underrated by media and non-Wizards fans, and overrated by many Wizards fans. The underrating folks typically dismiss him as a non-defender. His only interest is in scoring. Not accurate. Conversely, many Wizards fans say he's an excellent defender, and they'll cite stuff like counterpart stats and on/off numbers. The truth is somewhere in between. The physical attributes I mentioned above help him on the defensive end, and he tends to do a pretty good job on his own man so long as the opponent isn't running multiple screens and misdirection to get his man open. At that point, he tends to lose focus and he can be beaten. Also, he's a TERRIBLE help defender because his overall awareness and hoops IQ isn't very good.

That hoops IQ is a significant issue. It was reported during the draft process that Young may have a learning disability -- which may or may not be true. I do know that he had a lot of trouble learning playbooks. He spent two years in the Princeton system and never got the hang of basic sets. He had two training camps, a full season and an offseason to learn Flip Saunders' playbook, but didn't breakthrough this season until Flip greatly simplified sets for Young. Saunders effectively reduced Young's decision-making to shoot/don't shoot. That expanded a little as the season wore on, and they let him make some dribble-drive decisions.

The hoops IQ/awareness issue was a factor on defense where he would lose track of his man on the weakside (though his quickness and length allowed him to recover successfully at times), lose his man on screens and complex sets, and where he lacked the awareness to be a good help defender. He also needs to get stronger to help him fight through screens and against physical defenders.

One other thing -- for his size and athleticism, he's a poor rebounder. The Wizards desperately needed help on the boards this season, but Young rarely got a rebound unless the ball happened to bounce into his hands. I can't think of the number of plays where he stood and watched the ball come off the rim only to have a hustling opponent cut in front of him to grab the rebound.

All that said, I think the Wizards should re-sign him IF (IF, IF, IF) the price is right. I think his ideal role is as a bench scorer. Someone to anchor a 2nd unit that's more defense oriented and/or to provide a spark on nights when the team needs some instant offense. If the Wiz pay too much, they'll need him to start, and I think they'll end up disappointed with him. In the right role and the right contract, I think he could be quite valuable.
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#33 » by EvanZ » Tue May 17, 2011 8:27 pm

Thanks! Great analysis. I especially appreciate your insight about his defense. His 4-yr RAPM on defense is +0.1, which seemed higher than I expected given his rep. Seems like if he signs for $3-4M for 3 yrs, it would be a good deal, maybe a steal, if he can improve on some of those things in time.
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#34 » by Doctor MJ » Tue May 17, 2011 10:44 pm

Jay24 wrote:
Vincent 666 wrote:Kobe with another all defensive team selection and the haters are MAD.

You can just feel the hate coming through the posts lol

Life is good.

+1

lol @ OP being a Laker fan. Guy might be the biggest Kobe-hater on realgm. :lol:


Just for posterity:

The OP (me) is a former Laker mod. My anti-Kobe opinions are absolutely not based on any kind of hating of the Lakers. Where I run into trouble, from a Laker fan perspective, is that I'm a stat guy, and there's really no player in the game right now who causes disagreements more reliably between than the average fan and the stat guy. (Well, maybe Rose is a challenger for that crown now)
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#35 » by Jay24 » Wed May 18, 2011 12:02 am

Not really. That would be Melo. Kobe has always done well in advanced stats including the +/- numbers...especially in his prime. so yeah. stop hating.
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#36 » by drza » Wed May 18, 2011 3:09 am

Jay24 wrote:Not really. That would be Melo. Kobe has always done well in advanced stats including the +/- numbers...especially in his prime. so yeah. stop hating.


Oh yes, Kobe has always done well. He's always done very well. But he's never measured out as the best. In basically any of the advanced stats. Which is where the drama begins. If it were as simple as stats guys and Kobe fans agreeing that Kobe does very well, there'd be no issue. But generally, if Kobe isn't acknowledged as the best then among some of his fans this is considered 'hating'. So, you see the problem. The stats say Kobe isn't the best. Kobe's not the best = hating. Therefore, most stats guys are by definition Kobe haters. Such a tragedy.

And in the case where a stat clearly suggests that Kobe hasn't lived up to perception (in this case re: defense) then oh my! That moves stats guys into this realm: http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/ind ... eoId=24419
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#37 » by Doctor MJ » Wed May 18, 2011 4:55 am

Jay24 wrote:Not really. That would be Melo. Kobe has always done well in advanced stats including the +/- numbers...especially in his prime. so yeah. stop hating.


lol, okay Melo's another candidate. If you paid as much attention to writing on Melo as you do about Kobe then you'd undoubtedly call me a Melo hater as well.

"Kobe has always done well...", where did I ever say Kobe wasn't a great player? These questions aren't about whether someone is great...or not. More nuance is required to have meaningful conversation. According to advanced statistics, Kobe's never been the best player in the game. According to even basic statistics, Kobe's never been an order of magnitude more clutch than everyone else. Yet people believe these things strongly. It is that disagreement that causes me to argue against those trumpeting him. Want me to stop? Make the world have a more balanced opinion.
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#38 » by ElGee » Wed May 18, 2011 5:11 am

Fandom is usually about supporting something -- ie, the desire for that team/person to win. Analysis is about, um, analyzing those things. They aren't related, at all.

Or am I to assume that Jay "lolz" at every person who doesn't think the best player in the NBA is from the team he roots for? The top-12 players in the league are on the Laker roster?
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#39 » by Jay24 » Wed May 18, 2011 5:15 am

drza wrote:
Jay24 wrote:Not really. That would be Melo. Kobe has always done well in advanced stats including the +/- numbers...especially in his prime. so yeah. stop hating.


Oh yes, Kobe has always done well. He's always done very well. But he's never measured out as the best. In basically any of the advanced stats. Which is where the drama begins. If it were as simple as stats guys and Kobe fans agreeing that Kobe does very well, there'd be no issue. But generally, if Kobe isn't acknowledged as the best then among some of his fans this is considered 'hating'. So, you see the problem. The stats say Kobe isn't the best. Kobe's not the best = hating. Therefore, most stats guys are by definition Kobe haters. Such a tragedy.

And in the case where a stat clearly suggests that Kobe hasn't lived up to perception (in this case re: defense) then oh my! That moves stats guys into this realm: http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/ind ... eoId=24419

Obviously, during the yrs Kobe had a strong argument as "the best" it was because he did excellent in advanced stats + measured out very well in everything else basketball fans value --intangibles, clutch-play, skill-set, volume stats etc. Advanced stats are only one of many things most reasonable fans take into consideration. The problem most Kobe fans have are with the dunces who only use advanced stats and refuse to take into account other factors. That's the tragedy. Oh, and your idea of Kobe's D being all perception based on those stats would make sense...except for the fact that most defensive stats suck! Which is why every year u have excellent defenders measuring poorly in them.
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Re: Kobe Bryant: the most overrated defender imaginable 

Post#40 » by Jay24 » Wed May 18, 2011 5:21 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
lol, okay Melo's another candidate. If you paid as much attention to writing on Melo as you do about Kobe then you'd undoubtedly call me a Melo hater as well.

No. U attack Kobe a lot more than Melo.
"Kobe has always done well...", where did I ever say Kobe wasn't a great player? These questions aren't about whether someone is great...or not. More nuance is required to have meaningful conversation. According to advanced statistics, Kobe's never been the best player in the game. According to even basic statistics, Kobe's never been an order of magnitude more clutch than everyone else. Yet people believe these things strongly. It is that disagreement that causes me to argue against those trumpeting him. Want me to stop? Make the world have a more balanced opinion.

Except most people don't consider him to be an order of magnitude more clutch than anyone else. You're just making stuff up. And again, when he was getting strong arguments as the best (06-08) it was because of a variety of factors. Most fans aren't stupid enough to just blindly follow what the advanced stats say...

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