Statistical analysis on why Larry Bird is overrated

[CBS7]

HBK finally found Bird's BasketballReference profile. Now he can believe that Kawhi is better than him!

Bird had efficiency problems in the playoffs. People always knock Kobe for it and Kobe is far better defensively. Bird should be considered a top 15/20 guy like Dirk. Instead? They glorify him because him and Magic made NBA popular and put him on a top 5/10 level! That's not right

Bird's career playoff TS% is .551.
Duncan - .548
Wade - .549
D-Rob - .547
Dr J - .544
Kobe - .541

Shaq - .565
Jordan - .568

[Sgt Major]

In his era you wouldn't have an internet connection and the possibility to spread this kind of "in-depth analyses", so it's clear that his era was far better.

[70sFan]

HBK finally found Bird's BasketballReference profile. Now he can believe that Kawhi is better than him!

Bird had efficiency problems in the playoffs. People always knock Kobe for it and Kobe is far better defensively. Bird should be considered a top 15/20 guy like Dirk. Instead? They glorify him because him and Magic made NBA popular and put him on a top 5/10 level! That's not right

Sometimes he had. He also had 3 ATG postseason runs (1984, 1986 and 1987). He won 3 titles as a clear best player. He was the best player in the league at some point.

His main strength is also passing, spacing, off-ball game and quick decision making. He was very good scorer, but not GOAT tier. He was good at other things that made him great.

I kind-of agree with you because I have Bird outside of top 10, but he was amazing player and I can't see 20 players with better careers than him in NBA history. He's definitely top 15.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

You used playoff BPM and TS% as your main points.
His playoff career 6.88 BPM is 9th highest of all time (only goes back to 72-73). He lead the league with 10+ BPMs in 2 of his 3 title runs (which you seem to disregard because of his competition)
His playoff TS% of .551 is in the same realm of guys like Wade, Duncan, Robinson, and Dr J.

You can use "analysis" to make any all time great look bad if you marginalize their good years and focus on their worst (but still good) years.

Duncan is massively better on defense than bird, you should know that. I'm fine with bird being on the level of Wade/Robinson/Dr J.

[EH15]

GB ban

[levon]

While this thread is agenda-driven and hilarious, I do think that Bird is a little bit overrated.

[Bornstellar]

So your whole argument is based on TS%. Weak.

[bwgood77]

I believe this thread belongs in the statistical analysis forum where you can discuss this detailed analysis with all of the posters there.

[CBS7]

You used playoff BPM and TS% as your main points.
His playoff career 6.88 BPM is 9th highest of all time (only goes back to 72-73). He lead the league with 10+ BPMs in 2 of his 3 title runs (which you seem to disregard because of his competition)
His playoff TS% of .551 is in the same realm of guys like Wade, Duncan, Robinson, and Dr J.

You can use "analysis" to make any all time great look bad if you marginalize their good years and focus on their worst (but still good) years.

Duncan is massively better on defense than bird, you should know that. I'm fine with bird being on the level of Wade/Robinson/Dr J.

Bird's career playoff DBPM was 3.4. Duncan's was 4.1 and had a career playoff BPM of 5.9.
According to the same stats you quote against Bird, Bird was better on offense by a bigger margin than Duncan was better on defense. Hence the higher BPM.

Or do you only want to use advanced stats when they support your claim? I'd take Duncan over Bird, but Larry is still fringe top 10.

Bird also made 3 all defensive 2nd teams on top of the solid defensive stats, so the notion that he was some crap defender/one dimensional player is wrong.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

There is this thing called relative greatness that is often missed in these cross era comparision. Like during your era, how much better are you than your peers.

At the time , Bird and Magic was considered GOAT candidates. So comparing his stats to modern day stats is a flawed premise.

Even crazier is the fact that Bird posted three 50/40/90 seasons.

Bird is the only player other than Steve Nash to have posted a 50/40/90 season more then one time.

Only 8 players in NBA history have had 50/40/90 seasons.

In terms of analytics, Bird is the king.

In 1986, Bird had a 50/40/90 statistical line in the playoffs, which is unheard of.

Unheard of? Last year Kawhi just did 49/38/88 on much better defense

[Danny1616]

There is this thing called relative greatness that is often missed in these cross era comparision. Like during your era, how much better are you than your peers.

At the time , Bird and Magic was considered GOAT candidates. So comparing his stats to modern day stats is a flawed premise.

Even crazier is the fact that Bird posted three 50/40/90 seasons.

Bird is the only player other than Steve Nash to have posted a 50/40/90 season more then one time.

Only 8 players in NBA history have had 50/40/90 seasons.

In terms of analytics, Bird is the king.

In 1986, Bird had a 50/40/90 statistical line in the playoffs, which is unheard of.

Unheard of? Last year Kawhi just did 49/38/88 on much better defense

So he didn't reach the 50/40/90 club.

And yes, Kawhi had one of the greatest post-season runs of all-time, no one is disputing that.

But it's super rare for anyone to post 50/40/90 numbers during an entire playoffs run.

[CBS7]

HBK finally found Bird's BasketballReference profile. Now he can believe that Kawhi is better than him!

Bird had efficiency problems in the playoffs. People always knock Kobe for it and Kobe is far better defensively. Bird should be considered a top 15/20 guy like Dirk. Instead? They glorify him because him and Magic made NBA popular and put him on a top 5/10 level! That's not right

Kobe playoff DBPM : -0.3
Bird playoff DBPM: 3.4
Kawhi playoff DBPM: 2.8

If you're going to use advanced stats at least do it consistently

[HBK_Kliq_33]

You used playoff BPM and TS% as your main points.
His playoff career 6.88 BPM is 9th highest of all time (only goes back to 72-73). He lead the league with 10+ BPMs in 2 of his 3 title runs (which you seem to disregard because of his competition)
His playoff TS% of .551 is in the same realm of guys like Wade, Duncan, Robinson, and Dr J.

You can use "analysis" to make any all time great look bad if you marginalize their good years and focus on their worst (but still good) years.

Duncan is massively better on defense than bird, you should know that. I'm fine with bird being on the level of Wade/Robinson/Dr J.

Bird's career playoff DBPM was 3.4. Duncan's was 4.1 and had a career playoff BPM of 5.9.
According to the same stats you quote against Bird, Bird was better on offense by a bigger margin than Duncan was better on defense. Hence the higher BPM.

Or do you only want to use advanced stats when they support your claim? I'd take Duncan over Bird, but Larry is still fringe top 10.

Bird also made 3 all defensive 2nd teams on top of the solid defensive stats, so the notion that he was some crap defender/one dimensional player is wrong.

Bird never anchored top 3 defensive teams for his entire prime like Duncan did, that's taking the DBPM way out of context. OBPM is a much more valuable stat than DBPM when evaluating great players, otherwise someone like Pippen would be ranked much higher.

Bird was an average defender who had great defenders on his team like Dennis, McHale, Parish.

Bird today would get exposed defensively because on pick and roll with the switches he would get isolated on a lot more.

[og15]

A better thread would be one asking for a discussion on why Bird's scoring/shooting efficiency had such large drops in this or that series or playoffs and whether it affects the view of him in comparison to similar level players.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

Even crazier is the fact that Bird posted three 50/40/90 seasons.

Bird is the only player other than Steve Nash to have posted a 50/40/90 season more then one time.

Only 8 players in NBA history have had 50/40/90 seasons.

In terms of analytics, Bird is the king.

In 1986, Bird had a 50/40/90 statistical line in the playoffs, which is unheard of.

Unheard of? Last year Kawhi just did 49/38/88 on much better defense

So he didn't reach the 50/40/90 club.

And yes, Kawhi had one of the greatest post-season runs of all-time, no one is disputing that.

But it's super rare for anyone to post 50/40/90 numbers during an entire playoffs run.

Kawhi's volume was higher, he's shooting twice the amount of threes and also 3 more free throw attempts per game. If you adjust for volume? They are not far off at all

[og15]

There is this thing called relative greatness that is often missed in these cross era comparision. Like during your era, how much better are you than your peers.

At the time , Bird and Magic was considered GOAT candidates. So comparing his stats to modern day stats is a flawed premise.

Even crazier is the fact that Bird posted three 50/40/90 seasons.

Bird is the only player other than Steve Nash to have posted a 50/40/90 season more then one time.

Only 8 players in NBA history have had 50/40/90 seasons.

No telling how crazy good his splits would of been in this era vs an era where the 3 point line was relatively new.

Not a bad question, though if his 3PA rate went up he would actually be more likely than have a lower FG% even though his actual scoring efficiency might be better. In a league with higher 3PA rates, the 50 part of that 50/40/90 split is actually not that relevant. Curry could hit that mark a lot if he was taking half as many 3PA, but that wouldn't benefit winning more.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

Even crazier is the fact that Bird posted three 50/40/90 seasons.

Bird is the only player other than Steve Nash to have posted a 50/40/90 season more then one time.

Only 8 players in NBA history have had 50/40/90 seasons.

No telling how crazy good his splits would of been in this era vs an era where the 3 point line was relatively new.

Not a bad question, though if his 3PA rate went up he would actually be more likely than have a lower FG% even though his actual scoring efficiency might be better. In a league with higher 3PA rates, the 50 part of that 50/40/90 split is actually not that relevant. Curry could hit that mark a lot if he was taking half as many 3PA, but that wouldn't benefit winning more.

I agree with the arbitrary nature of the spilt, I think the 50/40/90 spilt was more relevant pre 2000s vs the 3 friendly lg now.

My thinking is Bird might finish at the basket slightly better with more spacing and replace most of his long mid range 2s with 3 pointers.

[Danny1616]

Duncan is massively better on defense than bird, you should know that. I'm fine with bird being on the level of Wade/Robinson/Dr J.

Bird's career playoff DBPM was 3.4. Duncan's was 4.1 and had a career playoff BPM of 5.9.
According to the same stats you quote against Bird, Bird was better on offense by a bigger margin than Duncan was better on defense. Hence the higher BPM.

Or do you only want to use advanced stats when they support your claim? I'd take Duncan over Bird, but Larry is still fringe top 10.

Bird also made 3 all defensive 2nd teams on top of the solid defensive stats, so the notion that he was some crap defender/one dimensional player is wrong.

Bird never anchored top 3 defensive teams for his entire prime like Duncan did, that's taking the DBPM way out of context. OBPM is a much more valuable stat than DBPM when evaluating great players, otherwise someone like Pippen would be ranked much higher.

Bird was an average defender who had great defenders on his team like Dennis, McHale, Parish.

Bird today would get exposed defensively because on pick and roll with the switches he would get isolated on a lot more.

Respond to the above poster DBPM counter argument that actually his some context.

[dhsilv2]

Where are the stats and the analysis?

[foreigngrammar]

Even crazier is the fact that Bird posted three 50/40/90 seasons.

Bird is the only player other than Steve Nash to have posted a 50/40/90 season more then one time.

Only 8 players in NBA history have had 50/40/90 seasons.

In terms of analytics, Bird is the king.

In 1986, Bird had a 50/40/90 statistical line in the playoffs, which is unheard of.

But he never shot more than 3 of them per game in those seasons!

That's just stupid basketball... more proof that Bird was overrated AND had a terrible basketball IQ.

He actively hurt his team by taking stupid, less efficient shots and stuff.

I'm not sure if this is trolling, but bird not shooting threes may have hurt him more than any other player. He could make them but would refuse to shoot or practice them IIRC. This would really help bird in the modern era, but would've helped him in his own era.

Well guess who lead the league in 3 point makes in the 86-87 season? Bird. Guess the whole league was filled with overrated and terrible IQ players.

Ever heard of irony?