NBA Clutch Statistics 2009-2010 Season

[wreck]

Looks like 82games finally posted its final statistics for the 2009-2010 regular season

http://www.82games.com/0910/CSORT11.HTM

No surprise with the stats showing who the best closer in the NBA is, for the third consecutive season, but I must admit I'm a little shocked how much distance there is between him and the next closest person. No wonder the impending free agency is a bigger story than the current NBA Playoffs.

[azuresou1]

82games really needs to revise its clutch definition. 5 minutes & 5 points is too broad of a period and IMO doesn't encompass clutchness. For instance, Karl Malone is a Top 5 PF ever, but he regularly disappeared in the last minutes of close games. I think 5 minutes & 5 points is a decent definition for "crunch time," but that's not completely the same thing as "clutch." Not to mention it doesn't count end of quarters, and gives no special weight to game tying or winning shots.

Robert Horry would have really terrible "clutch stats" going by 82games, even though he was clutch as hell.

[koko]

James 45 games
Kobe 28 games

enough said.

[mcfly1204]

82games really needs to revise its clutch definition. 5 minutes & 5 points is too broad of a period and IMO doesn't encompass clutchness. For instance, Karl Malone is a Top 5 PF ever, but he regularly disappeared in the last minutes of close games. I think 5 minutes & 5 points is a decent definition for "crunch time," but that's not completely the same thing as "clutch." Not to mention it doesn't count end of quarters, and gives no special weight to game tying or winning shots.

Robert Horry would have really terrible "clutch stats" going by 82games, even though he was clutch as hell.

I do not see anything wrong with their definition of clutch. To me there should be a clear distinction between clutch players, and those that have a knack for hitting big shots... i.e. Big Shot Bob.

[Doctor MJ]

82games really needs to revise its clutch definition. 5 minutes & 5 points is too broad of a period and IMO doesn't encompass clutchness. For instance, Karl Malone is a Top 5 PF ever, but he regularly disappeared in the last minutes of close games. I think 5 minutes & 5 points is a decent definition for "crunch time," but that's not completely the same thing as "clutch." Not to mention it doesn't count end of quarters, and gives no special weight to game tying or winning shots.

Robert Horry would have really terrible "clutch stats" going by 82games, even though he was clutch as hell.

Hmm, well you have to consider that the more limited time sample you take, the smaller the sample size, and hence the more random the information. The definition they give seems quite good to me - if a game is that close with 5 minutes left, pressure's on. I have trouble buying that a guy can thrive at that point, and then fall apart with 1 minute left unless the issue is with his free throw shooting. Conversely, hard to imagine someone stinking it up with 5 minutes left who wakes up in the closing seconds.

I think the idea that end of quarter shots belong here is dead wrong. Those shots only resemble actual clutch situations superficially - player's don't feel any where near the same type of pressure.

Putting more weight on game winning shots would just muddy the picture. I like it when they provide additional articles for buzzer beaters, but I don't wan't the two merged with 82games choosing an arbitrary weighting.

Re: Horry. I'm guessing you mean he'd look bad by this because he doesn't shoot in volume? Thing is, 82games isn't forcing you to judge by volume. You can sort by FG%. No one's going to call a role player a choker simply because he isn't shooting that much.

[Doctor MJ]

James 45 games
Kobe 28 games

enough said.

What exactly do you think that means? They break down the stats per minute of "clutch" time, so the only way your argument would even be coherent is if you were saying that 28 games is not enough time to judge a guy but 45 games is - and that still wouldn't be a good argument because they've got data from previous years that looks pretty similar.

[Silver Bullet]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this data set show that the top 5 clutch players in the league are Mo Williams, Lebron, Anthony Parker, Delonte West, Dirk Nowitzki and Anderson Varejao ?

[Doctor MJ]

James 45 games
Kobe 28 games

enough said.

What exactly do you think that means? They break down the stats per minute of "clutch" time, so the only way your argument would even be coherent is if you were saying that 28 games is not enough time to judge a guy but 45 games is - and that still wouldn't be a good argument because they've got data from previous years that looks pretty similar.

[maxwellcu]

This thread is a good argument against the use of statistics to evaluate clutch in basketball.

Kobe is undeniably more clutch than Lebron. It really isn't debatable. Lebron didn't get it done in the playoffs this year. Kobe is the best player on a championship team and delivers time after time after time when they need it to the most.

How many game winnning buzzer-beaters this year? 4?

I am a Nuggets fan and am not really a big fan of either the Lakers or the Cavs, so I am not biased. But Kobe is the most clutch player in the NBA, period. My favorite Lebron clutch moment of the year is watching him shank a three right after Melo splapped a game-winner in his eye in OT.

[Doctor MJ]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this data set show that the top 5 clutch players in the league are Mo Williams, Lebron, Anthony Parker, Delonte West, Dirk Nowitzki and Anderson Varejao ?

No it shows raw stats so that you can interpret them for yourself.

For those confused, Silver's got this sorted by +/- per minute. Personally, though I really like +/-, I acknowledge that sample size is a huge problem with it. A full season (2000+ minutes) is considered less than ideal for using this stat, and what's shown here a far smaller sample size. I'd put more stock in the box score stats they've compiled.

[DarkerThanBlack]

so Ellis and Jennings more clutch than Wade?

[Doctor MJ]

This thread is a good argument against the use of statistics to evaluate clutch in basketball.

Kobe is undeniably more clutch than Lebron. It really isn't debatable. Lebron didn't get it done in the playoffs this year. Kobe is the best player on a championship team and delivers time after time after time when they need it to the most.

How many game winnning buzzer-beaters this year? 4?

I am a Nuggets fan and am not really a big fan of either the Lakers or the Cavs, so I am not biased. But Kobe is the most clutch player in the NBA, period. My favorite Lebron clutch moment of the year is watching him shank a three right after Melo splapped a game-winner in his eye in OT.

Wow. You're grabbing on to things to support your prejudiced conclusion. To be clear, I don't have a problem with the conclusion that Kobe is the clutchest guy in the game, but wanting to dismiss all this great information based on the fact it disagrees with what you believe is crazy.

Also:

-I think people get the concept of "clutch" so turned around in their head. So the last 5 minutes of a close game is not what "clutch time" is, but an entire series against a fantastic defensive team with 4 of the 5 best players on the court is "clutch time" - and if you lose your not clutch. How the hell does that make any kind of sense?

-Kobe making 4 buzzer beaters is great. Is that something he does every year? Nope. In fact, the buzzer beater stats 82 games has from '03-04 to '08-09 has LeBron in the lead with 17 (despite shooting less than Kobe). Have I changed your mind, are you now going to say LeBron's clutch? (somehow I doubt it)

[wreck]

Looks like the good doctor took care of everything I needed to say.

But 82games's thorough research along with posts in this thread, just goes to show how important the numbers are because the perception of the average person (like maxwellcu) is normally false.

[dacher]

tells me Carter and Durant are inefficient chuckers

[wreck]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this data set show that the top 5 clutch players in the league are Mo Williams, Lebron, Anthony Parker, Delonte West, Dirk Nowitzki and Anderson Varejao ?

Those are the raw numbers which are what they are, but it is up to you to interpret them in how you want to use them in your analysis. One reason for that could simply be they are on the court with LeBron, the best closer in the game, so their +/- numbers will be skewed upwards because of that.

[spacemonkey]

Interesting is Camby and Beasly being 1 and 3 respectively in "clutch" steals at 22/21 game sample size each.

Noah's 65.2% on 9.2FGA/per48 in "clutch" time is also fairly interesting.

[mysticbb]

Interesting is Camby and Beasly being 1 and 3 respectively in "clutch" steals at 22/21 game sample size each.

Beasley probably steals the ball from himself, if you take a look at his turnovers.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this data set show that the top 5 clutch players in the league are Mo Williams, Lebron, Anthony Parker, Delonte West, Dirk Nowitzki and Anderson Varejao ?

Actually the data shows to me that James is the best clutch player, after that I would put Nowitzki ahead of Bryant. Why? Because looking at the overall performance by each player will eliminate players like Williams, Parker, West and Varejao. Looking just at the boxscore stats Nowitzki and Bryant are rather equal, but a look at the result gives Nowitzki the edge. But well, that is probably just my interpretation.

[supaflash]

Few things that pop out to me:

Cleveland as a team played really well in the clutch this season (hence the best record..) not just Lebron. It shows that the give Bron the ball and let him go in the last few minutes was really effective during the regular season and he is really hard to stop, especially when guys are shooting like that. It also makes me wonder why we didn't see Mo,West,Parker,Bron, Verejao roaming the baseline more often in the playoffs late.

Iso Joe worked in the regular season too...

Dirk is and has been vastly underrated as a clutch performer. He's the BMW of clutch, German engineered smoothness and efficiency. His only drawback is that he is set-up more then 50% of the time. And for those arguing Pau > Dirk, you need to check this...

Kobe is still the king though, massive production, good percentages, and not much help. Look how bad Pau, LO, Artest, and Fish were in the clutch... ugh..

Nash is straight nashty and Amare beastly...

Mello, take it to the hole buddy...

Wade.. ouch.. get him some help...

Durrant and Carter ugh...

[mysticbb]

His only drawback is that he is set-up more then 50% of the time. And for those arguing Pau > Dirk, you need to check this.

Well, the reason is that the guy who gives the ball to Nowitzki into the midpost area will get an assists, even though Nowitzki is getting his shot open by himself. It is just the way the assists are given out. Nowitzki isn't moving his feet, thus the pass to him counts as an assists.

To give an example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pphZxPiCfk

Dirk Nowitzki makes 19-foot jumper (Jason Kidd assists) 115-113

Kidd got the assists for that.

[supaflash]

I realize that, Dirk can get his own shot, but he does need guys to feed him and get him going on screens at times as well. Not really a knock at all, Dirk is amazing. Just imo I'll always value a wing or PG that can create the shot or play from beginning to end a little more. Could you imagine Dirk and Kobe together? Dirk and Bron? CP3? Nash again? Honestly I hope he gets another guy to go with him, it would be a shame if he didn't.