Is Kobe really an inefficient scorer?

[Chicago76]

^Not to mention the fact that centers have more impact defensively by default based upon their proximity to the basket and ability to cover multiple players entering the lane. If it was about absolute defensive value, a center or maybe a power forward would win the award every year, but it's not. It's about relative value. The gap between Jordan's perimeter defense and the next best perimeter defender was ridiculously high until Pippen came along. Many of the other premier perimeter lock down defenders were showing their age by the time he won (Cooper, Moncrief, etc.) The gap between the top interior defenders (Eaton, Olajuwon, etc.) was much smaller.

[Jimmy76]

^Not to mention the fact that centers have more impact defensively by default based upon their proximity to the basket and ability to cover multiple players entering the lane. If it was about absolute defensive value, a center or maybe a power forward would win the award every year, but it's not. It's about relative value. The gap between Jordan's perimeter defense and the next best perimeter defender was ridiculously high until Pippen came along. Many of the other premier perimeter lock down defenders were showing their age by the time he won (Cooper, Moncrief, etc.) The gap between the top interior defenders (Eaton, Olajuwon, etc.) was much smaller.

The concept replacement value does tend to get lost in a lot of big vs small comparisons

Certainly makes it easier for me to justify a transcendent small over a top 20 two way big

[tsherkin]

The gap between the top interior defenders (Eaton, Olajuwon, etc.) was much smaller.

Despite his volume shot-blocking, the gap on defense between Eaton and Olajuwon was HUMONGOUS. Olajuwon was a vastly more effective and more versatile defensive presence. Eaton was super-tall, had good timing and camped by the rim.

EDIT: And that doesn't even touch on the difference in defensive rebounding or Olajuwon's ability to play passing lanes, it mostly covers man defense in the post and general mobility as a shot-blocker. Olajuwon was more in common with Russell in terms of defensive impact than he does with Eaton, as good as was Eaton (not to say that he quite matched Russell defensively, though, just in terms of relative location ito defensive impact).

[Chicago76]

I'm not trying to argue that Eaton was in Olajuwon's league defensively, although I do think his impact is underrated by people today, i.e., the gap was big, but I wouldn't call it "HUMONGOUS". You have to transplant yourself back to the mid to late 80s to look at his Eaton's perceived impact on the game.

The case for Olajuwon: all around defensive impact and versatility. He was the best defender (not adjusting for position) in the game.

The case for Eaton: team defense. From 1984/85-1989/90, the Jazz were the best defensive team in the league 4 out of 5 years, finishing 3rd the other year. This was done while replacing 2 starters and Eaton was the obvious constant. Sampson wasn't half the defensive player that Olajuwon was, but he was an imposing figure if only for his height. He was in Houston for at least part of Jordan's DPOY year. More of the team credit over the years for Houston was attributed to him than it was for Eaton on the Jazz. The team aspect (and Eaton's block totals) led to a public perception of Olajwon and Eaton closer than what it actually was on an individual basis.

Those two players split the big man vote, and that left the door open for Jordan. The other thing that Jordan had going for him is what happened off the steals he created offensively, which to me is really part of defense rather than the O. If Jordan tipped a ball into the backcourt, he would chase it down and turn it into an easy bucket and a chance for a photographer to get a photo on a poster.

[tsherkin]

Yeah but Eaton also had the benefit of good defensive teammates and some decent or better defensive coaching, right? It was a little different than the situation in Utah. He was a very good defender, but there's a big gap between what he did and what Olajuwon did, and the net difference in impact on the game.

I dont' disagree, though, that public perception played a huge role. I'm just saying that for the sake of the argument, Eaton wasn't really anything like Hakeem (or D-Rob, for that matter, for a later example) on defense. He was kind of like a taller Greg Ostertag with great instincts for contesting shots around the rim. Big dude, COMPLETELY vulnerable to any kind of mobility from his own defensive check (and range, for that matter), but very good at using his length.

[Chicago76]

In 1985, the Jazz were the best defensive team in the league with Green, Dantley, Bailey, Griffith + Eaton. Dantley, Griffith, and Green led the team in minutes apart from Eaton. They had the same core in Eaton's first two years when he was still learning and they were average defensively. The year before he showed up (1982), they were one of the worst teams in the league with Bailey, Dantley, and Griffith leading the way on that team in minutes. Bad (without Eaton) to average (while he was learning the big man ropes) to best (by year 3) seems pretty attributable to Eaton to me.

By 1987, Dantley was gone in place of Tripucka (a defensive downgrade) and Bailey was a starter (not a good defender. Still best in the league. Over the next two years, they did pick up Malone (good defender) and Stockton (ditto). But I'm not sure either was thought of as a good defender at the time.

Coaching? In 88, the Jazz were led by Layden (good but not great) and the Rockets were led by Fitch (to me at least, better).

The thing that gets overlooked by Eaton was that the guy was so intimidating to opponents that they altered their shot selection to a ridiculous degree. The league average defensive eFG% was .489 in 88. #2-#4 were the Rockets, Pistons, and Bulls at .473 to .478. The Jazz were at .459!

The number two team in the league was almost as close to average as they were the best team in the league. Eaton was limited, but what he did in that limited role had a huge impact on opponents.

[tsherkin]

I assume you're referring to 84-85 here?

You're aware that their guards forced a fairly significant number of turnovers, right? Some of that was from confidence in Eaton being able to clean up when they got burned gambling, but they definitely were a part of that overall defensive scheme. Plus, you left out Stockton who, despite not starting, still did manage 1.3 spg... in 18.2 minutes per game.

Again, don't mistake me making my commentary about Eaton as suggesting he was a bad defender. He was an elite defender, it's just that he wasn't as valuable on defense as Olajuwon.

It's not a perfect stat, dependent as it is upon team DRTG and total wins, but in the case of Eaton, that should FAVOR him, which tends to outweigh the advantage Olajuwon had of playing more minutes.

Eaton's best DWS markers are from 88-89 and 84-85 (6.5 and 6.7, playing 35.5 and 34.3 mpg, respectively). Those were the only two times he made it beyond 5.2 (averaging 5.0 and 5.2 in two other seasons and not reaching 5.0 beyond those four years).

Olajuwon has 11 consecutive seasons of 5.0+, including 6 at 6+, one at 7.8, one at 7.9 and two others at 8+ (8.7 and 8.0). So that's four years beyond the absolute pinnacle of Eaton's contributions.

In terms of Opp eFG%, at Olajuwon's peak 4 seasons (7.8, 7.9, 8.0 and 8.7 DWS), he managed an Opp eFG% for his team of: 8th, 3rd, 3rd and 3rd.

He wasn't doing so bad himself.

Here is Opp eFG% / lgAvg Opp eFG% for those seasons.

.481 / .489, .458 / .485, .474 / .491, .475 / .489.

Also, in 92-93, they were 0.01% behind the second-place Orlando Magic, to give you an idea of their relative ranking.

Remember too that in most of these seasons, Hakeem wasn't rocking huge help from his temamates.

In 88-89, the Rockets were 4th in the league in DRTG and Dream's lineup was Thorpe, Sleepy Floyd, Mike Woodson, and Buck Johnson/whoever. That's not exactly a titanic defensive lineup, particularly with Don Chaney at the helm.

The year after was arguably Dream's defensive peak (even though he didn't win the DPOY, Dennis Rodman did. That was kind of a bunk selection, too. Dream led the league in DRTG and DWS by a significant margin, was 3rd in BLK%, first in BPG (by 0.6 bpg), led the league in RPG by 2.0 rpg, led the league in DREB% by 2.3%, beat Rodman out for league lead in TRB% by 0.5% and was the defensive anchor of the top defense in the league (in DRTG). The Pistons led the league in Opp eFG%, but Houston was third (only .014% behind), forced more turnovers than the Pistons, were similar on the defensive glass (despite the Pistons having Rodman AND Laimbeer) and fouled way less.

That was a bit of reputation taking over that year.

In any case, Olajuwon was a MONSTER that year, but the Rockets were a .500 team because he didn't have a lot of help on offense.

In any case, I think you're underselling Olajuwon's defensive value in order to inflate Eaton, to some extent anyhow.

[Chicago76]

At the risk of this getting further offtopic, I'll go back to a couple of original points to see if we can find some common ground. I don't think we are necessarily disagreeing, but more or less, we're arguing to entirely different things...Thanks by the way for as a mod giving us leeway here far from the Kobe inefficient scorer thing. Sometimes letting things veer offcourse generates some of the best discussion...anyway...

Pt #1: Since the Eaton thing was a side comment re: the original point, back to the original point" Jordan winning DPOY wasn't necessarily undeserved when you look at his defensive contribution from a position-adjusted replacement level concept. Since you used DWS to highlight your points on Olajuwon, I'll stick with that to define a loose estimate of replacement DWS. Jordan was at 6.1 DWS that year, Olajuwon at 6.3, and Eaton at 5.2. If we consider the number of teams in the league that year (23), and some minutes threshold to get a decent player population (1000 min for example), then we can come up with a hypothetical replacement DWS at center and guard. Center might be the # of teams + 1 or the #24 guy (Mychal Thompson) at 2.3 DWS. Guard might be the # of teams x 2 guard spots +1 or the #47 guy (Jerry Reynolds) at 1.5 DWS. Absolute value gives a slight edge to Olajuwon, but replacement position value gives a landslide edge to Jordan. This oversimplifies and underestimates a center's ability to assist his teammates and anchor a defense, but it's a decent representation of what voters might think: Jordan is defending at a remarkable level for a guard, so the award is his.

Pt #2: Not an old one, but something that I think maybe needs to be said> I am under no illusion that Eaton was a better defender than Olajuwon. To me Olajuwon has a better claim as anyone to the title of second best defender of all time (behind Russell). Not my intention to undersell the guy as a defender in any way, but a lot of his reputation was built long after the 88 DPOY vote was cast, so the margin between the two from a reputation standpoint (which is important in DPOY voting), would have been much, much closer at that point in time.

Pt #3: Voter context in 1988 is everything in the Eaton v. Olajwon vote. Defense is notoriously difficult to quantify today, nevermind in 1988. A reasonable voter in 1988 could have objectively thought that Eaton was worthy of 1st place votes for DPOY, therefore splitting the vote among two big men and allowing Jordan to win. I personally would say that Olajuwon was better that year (and ridiculously better when you consider his entire career)...BUT I wouldn't think that an Eaton vote would be unreasonable given contemporary context of what someone would know in May 1988. Because box score statistics are pretty inadequate in describing defensive impact, the award is based a lot on reputation and how someone would subjectively attribute credit to teammates for team defense--even more so then. The Jazz were poor defensively pre-Eaton, and their immediate ascension to mediocrity his rookie year with a very similar roster from the year prior would have been largely attributed to him rather than sudden improvements for guys already on the roster. People also knew he was raw (being plucked out of a mechanics shop to play JUCO ball and then playing sparingly at UCLA...the guy hardly played his senior year). He had project written all over him, so everyone expected delayed improvement from him, which happened in year 3 for the Jazz, when they were the best defensive team in the league.

Hindsight being 20/20, we now know that Stockton was a very good defender and added something to the mix too. Looking at him as a 6-1, not particularly athletic, slightly built, and yes, white rookie out of Gonzaga, how much credit do you think he was given for their improvement? It was much more likely that the "gambling for steals because Eaton was behind you" school of thought won out. Same thing to a lesser extent with Malone a year later. The cast changed, but Eaton got the lionshare of the credit because of how the Jazz changed very quickly when he arrived, improved further after he developed, and maintained their status as the best defensive team in the league. The team's status as the best D in the league over the 4-year period leading up to the 88 voting would have certainly helped. Had the voters known that the Jazz would maintain a good level of defense after his decline with the same players they had in 88, the vote probably would have been different, but how could anyone have known this at that time?

So, no, I'm not trying to undersell Olajuwon, nor do I think he was undeserving of the title of DPOY for that year. I just think there are a lot of equally compelling plot lines that could lead perfectly reasonable people to vote for Jordan and to a lesser extent for Eaton that year.

[tsherkin]

Pt #1: Since the Eaton thing was a side comment re: the original point, back to the original point" Jordan winning DPOY wasn't necessarily undeserved when you look at his defensive contribution from a position-adjusted replacement level concept.

The question I have right away, then, is this:

Does Jordan, even blowing away a replacement-level player at his position, contribute a sufficient amount to the team's defense to be considered the DPOY when there are guys like Eaton, Ewing and Olajuwon in the league? My first response is, "no, not really." That's kind of my position on the DPOY, I'm of the mind that a guard should never win it except under 1 of 2 conditions:

1) There are no worthwhile big defenders in the league in that season

or

2) The guard is such a transcendent defensive presence that it doesn't matter

In the case of Chicago in 87-88, I don't feel that was the case.

The Bulls were certainly the third-best defense in the league, which was impressive, as was their ranking 4th in Opp eFG%, but did that have everything to do with MJ?

What did that team do very well defensively? They held the opposition to low efficiency on their shots, true, but they were actually below-average at forcing turnovers (which, you might imagine, would be Jordan's primary strength, given his tendency to create steals and blocks in that season). They were, however, the best defensive rebounding squad in the league, and by a considerable margin. The difference between them and 2nd place was the difference between 2nd and 17th place; they were titans on the defensive boards.

Was Jordan a part of that? Surely, he was grabbing 3.8 drpg a game, so he was contributing somewhat, but that was actually the third-worst defensive rebounding season of his career. We want to be looking at Charles Oakley (9.0 drpg, noted defensive presence) and the successful development of Horace Grant and Scottie Pippen as key components of that defense. Jordan was flashy, and worthy of his All-Defensive First Team selection, but that was a really good defensive TEAM, not a team championed by the DPOY like the Jazz. Hell, the Pistons and Rockets had guys who were individually superior to Jordan on defense, as did Utah: Mark Eaton would win the 89 DPOY, then Rodman (on Detroit) would win the next two... then Robinson, and then wouldn't you know it, Olajuwon won two in a row.

Jordan, like Payton and Artest, didn't really deserve to win that award in my opinion. There were too many good big defenders who were doing a better job for their teams with less help around them than Jordan had... and that help makes it really hard to separate Jordan's true impact from the value of having a thunderously dominant defensive rebounder and a pair of really good man defenders (both of whom were at LEAST above-average help defenders). Even at that early stage of their careers, Grant and Pippen were good defensively. As rookies, no less. Pip was a 21 mpg player, sure, but he also had the second-best STL% on the team, and the second-best DRTG among players who played at least 300 minutes. And again, Oakley was basically Dwight Howard (30% DRB) on the defensive glass and a good defender himself. They had some talent on the defensive end.

but it's a decent representation of what voters might think: Jordan is defending at a remarkable level for a guard, so the award is his.

Yeah, I'm not a fan of the sort of feel-good story that creates. That's precisely why Allen Iverson "won" an MVP, even though he wasn't even close to an MVP-level player... and had one of the fewest games-played among MVP-winners in league history.

It's nice that Jordan was defending really well, and the All-Defensive 1st Team selection should have taken care of that; he had far more help on D than some of the big men who were making their teams as good or better on defense than Jordan's Bulls, without the aid of three significant defensive players and a rebounding champion killing the defensive boards.

but a lot of his reputation was built long after the 88 DPOY vote was cast, so the margin between the two from a reputation standpoint (which is important in DPOY voting), would have been much, much closer at that point in time.

No doubt; the perennially-useless Houston management and their absent capacity to put a replacement-level squad around him had a lot to do with that, no doubt.

So, no, I'm not trying to undersell Olajuwon, nor do I think he was undeserving of the title of DPOY for that year. I just think there are a lot of equally compelling plot lines that could lead perfectly reasonable people to vote for Jordan and to a lesser extent for Eaton that year.

I don't disagree that there were reasons for people to make the selection, particularly without the exposure to data we have now. That doesn't mean I can't retrospectively disagree with them. I retrospectively disagree with them without even looking at advanced stats, though, because I watched a lot of Houston and Utah specifically to research this point for another project (and also because I happen to be a huge fan of Malone and Dream). It should have been obvious to anyone watching the two that Olajuwon was WORLDS apart from Eaton as far as what he could accomplish.

I can sum up the actual voter thought-process pretty simply, though...

"ZOMG, BLOCKS!!"

That's it. That's what decided it. People are intensely vulnerable to gaudy averages. It's a big part of Iverson's MVP and a big part of Eaton's DPOY that year. In 85, he set the still-standing single-season BPG record at 5.6. In 89, he didn't even lead the league, but still posted 3.8, which was 2nd-best. That's pretty much what called it. Sports journalists were mostly tools then, and still are now. Most of them are multi-sport writers, which just exacerbates the problem.