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Lebron currently has 25k minutes. If he averages 3700 minutes a season from now on assuming long playoff runs, his numbers will look like

11 - 28.7
12 - 32.4
13 - 36.1
14 - 39.8
15 - 43.5
16 - 47.2

Here are some recent numbers for comparable talents

Duncan - 34k at end of 07, 42k now
Shaq - 34k at end of 03, 43k at end of 06, 50k now
KG - 41.5 at end of 08, 45k now
Jordan - 43k at 98 retirement
Kobe - 45k now

I'm guessing Lebron starts falling off right around the early 40ks. But that might be generous consider most of the guys who stay elite into the 40ks are super workers. For example Paul Pierce has around 36k right now, it looks like he'll be on the decline by 40. Sheed has only 37k. Nash has 35k. Jamison around 32. Seems like Pierce, Jamison, Nash are all next in line to decline doesn't it. All these guys are in the top 15 in MP. Lebron has ethic, but not KG or Kobe like. 40k may be generous. He may last till 35-38 only.

Even 40k, that gives him 4 or 5 more prime years. If he falls off at mid 30s, he could have as little as 3 more prime years.

Basically unless he's a major outlier, the Lebron era has a 3-5 year window giving him a 10-12 year prime which is about right for stars. I think this is less than most people/the media are projecting for him. And it may prove joining the Heat is a very good decision for this reason. If he stayed in Cleveland, the clock would've been ticking very hard for those titles

Another interesting fact - Jordan had only 17k minutes before the '91 season. Lebron has played 2.5x seasons more in minutes. The "Jordan didn't win till 27, Lebron is 25" reasoning is dubious - It's more like Jordan had the MP of a 25 year old after '90 and Lebron has the MP of a 27 year old right now. Lebron is trailing Jordan, not the other way around. Lebron has almost no chance of catching Jordan's 6 titles as the man. Even if he 6peated, he'd still need to be MVP/title as the man caliber at 48k which is basically unheard of. Now a couple 60 game seasons could drop that to 45-46k, but that's still a tall tall task to hold up that long, even Kobe is showing cracks at 45k. Going by minutes, Wade actually has a better chance of maintaining MVP caliber play 6 years from now. (Wade's minutes and age is exactly where Jordan's was at the end of '90, btw)

I agree but a lot of butthurt fanboys are going to come in stating he is a freak of nature who will just switch to PF and become Karl Malone esque. Also he will play until he's at least 40 while still dominating.

I'm not a butthurt fanboy, but I don't think its out of place to note the massive physical differences between Lebron and, say, Kobe, in terms of mass.

edit: I also don't see what's so crazy about pointing out that Lebron is, indeed, a physical freak. One of the reasons he's played so many minutes is because he's played on average 40.3 minutes/game for his career, 4 seasons over 40 minutes in only 7 years in the league. Kobe, by comparison, has 5 such seasons in 14 years of ball. LBJ has lead the league in minutes played twice, and minutes/game once. Bryant has never lead the league in either. He has so many minutes piled up precisely because he's a physical freak.

Jordan, also by comparison, had 3 seasons total over 40 mpg, and none at/over 41 (career high of 40.4). LBJ played 80 games and average 42.4 minutes per in his second season. Again, Lebron has big minutes because he's a physical freak.

I didnt know he was on the court for so long. I dont think anyone should really be playing that many minutes every game

mopper8 wrote:I'm not a butthurt fanboy, but I don't think its out of place to note the massive physical differences between Lebron and, say, Kobe, in terms of mass.

edit: I also don't see what's so crazy about pointing out that Lebron is, indeed, a physical freak. One of the reasons he's played so many minutes is because he's played on average 40.3 minutes/game for his career, 4 seasons over 40 minutes in only 7 years in the league. Kobe, by comparison, has 5 such seasons in 14 years of ball. LBJ has lead the league in minutes played twice, and minutes/game once. Bryant has never lead the league in either. He has so many minutes piled up precisely because he's a physical freak.

Jordan, also by comparison, had 3 seasons total over 40 mpg, and none at/over 41 (career high of 40.4). LBJ played 80 games and average 42.4 minutes per in his second season. Again, Lebron has big minutes because he's a physical freak.

I agree he best chance for Lebron to have freak longevity is to use his size and develop a killer post game - and become like 87+ Magic in the halfcourt. He still has time, but he hasn't shown any signs of that post game yet. To be elite at 45k+ you really need a special physical/skill/work set. A guy who I see lasting like that is Dirk. His size and skill combined with an amazing work ethic will likely make him hold up like Kobe

I do think that "post-prime" Lebron even with a post game will still be Paul Pierce with elite passing. But this will likely make him more like 06 Shaq, 10 Duncan, 90 Bird, etc. where it's just not the same dominant guy.

3700 minutes per season is a pretty high projection. Yes, he's done that a few times, but that was because the Cavs needed him on the court so much. His minutes will be down in Miami, as there will be lots of blowouts. I'd expect 33-34 mpg. Even if he plays every game and 20 postseason games each year, that's only around 3400 minutes per season.

As Mopper points out, LeBron is a physical freak. Perhaps the most freakish athlete in the history of a sport that is filled with freakish athletes. There seems to be some kind of assumption or belief that LeBron is not a worker. I don't know where that comes from. In terms of his physical condition and conditioning, he is either an incredible worker, a complete physical freak, or both. It looks like both to me.

When you say he shoudl start dropping off around 40,000 minutes what do you mean. The way Kobe has been "dropping off" for the last few years, i.e., still a Top 5 player in the NBA?

LeBron is actually a very efficient post player. He doesn't use it that much, but he has elite efficiency when he does. In terms of points per possession when in the post, LeBron was at 1.149 last season. To give a sense of how good and efficient that is, compare it to some of the elite post players:

DHoward -- .904
Gasol -- .978
Shaq -- .883
Duncan -- 1.038

LeBron will develop that post game even more in Miami. Remember, Riley was Magic's coach in LA when he developed his post game and Riley is still a big figure in Miami, albeit not as coach. Riley has always believed in the importance of post offense (Kareem, Magic, Ewing, Mourning, Shaq, etc.) and although I think the league has moved a bit away from that, it won't be abandoned. With another superstar perimeter player in Wade, the Heat will be freed up to use LeBron in the post more, especially when Bosh is out of the game.

I'm not sure what you mean by "post-prime" LeBron in terms of when you see that happening. Paul Pierce is a very good player, but he was never LeBron good. If you think LeBron at 29 is going to be like Pierce at 32, I think you are crazy. And even if you are crazy and right, Paul Pierce with elite passing is still a Top 10 player in the NBA.

Someone made a good point that he will be playing less minutes, but does that actually have a noticeable impact compared to how many games he has played and how many seasons he has played. Its not like right after the game he doesn't work out, or shoot hoops until next game. Usually 11 seasons is when players really start to wined down except for the special few who don't rely on athleticism(or who can alter their game).

DeeDub wrote:When you say he shoudl start dropping off around 40,000 minutes what do you mean. The way Kobe has been "dropping off" for the last few years, i.e., still a Top 5 player in the NBA?

Bryant has dropped. There is no doubt about it. He can elevate his game when needed, but he can't do things night in and night out that he did even in the second year of that three year run with Shaq. He's just at the start of the decline, where things deteriorate just a little bit here or there. Over the next two seasons, it will be a lot more obvious because the decline tends to increase year over year more dramatically once it begins. If he stays healthy, he'll hit 40,000 toward the end of the year. Should be interesting.

^ Kobe is at 45,000 minutes right now including playoffs. He's already been an outlier for longevity the last couple years but that can only last so long. I'd go as far to say he has one more top 3 player year at best...

lebron at pf ? bargnani abused him in the post nuff said