Skiles, Brown and the impact of coach emphasis
Posted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 11:15 pm
I've always been fascinated by Scott Skiles and Larry Brown's careers. They've almost always coached amazing defense, bad offense teams. While they've usually coached defensive coach friendly rosters, it would appear they have a significant impact boosting team DRTG. But their ORTGs are also equally horrible, which prevents Brown or Skiles from single handidly making teams elite. There are many average teams with average offenses whom if you gave them defenses on the level of last year's Bucks or Bobcats, would become 50 W+ despite talent nowhere near that level. If Skiles and Browns' DRTG boosting was unrelated to offense, they would be commodities as valuable as an MVP player. Which is plain silly.
I'm ruling out Skiles and Brown just having 'amazing defense schemes'. I'm not sure such a thing is possible. Most teams play defense similarly, if Skiles and Brown just had schemes that were out of this world, other teams would catch up and use the same thing. Furthermore if it came down to a superiority on paper, the beforementioned drop in ORTG would not occur as they would be unrelated. Skiles and Brown are not using better defensive technology via Xs and Os.
I don't think it's *too* related to going for less fast break leaks and getting back more, since this would be reflected in Pace and having much better defensive rebounding than offensive, which is not the case for Skiles and Brown teams.
So my premise is it's related to EMPHASIS. Brown and Skiles teams play defense better than offense cause they want them to. That's what they practice. That's what they use their energy for. That's what they're told to hang their hat on. The coach 'system' encompasses not just xs and os, but what the players should do.
And I specifically label this year's Bucks as an extreme example of this. While early in the season, they rank 2nd in DRTG and 30th in ORTG. The early stats say they've gotten worse offensively and better defensively than last year despite adding Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette to the lineup. I expected the Jennings/Salmons/Maggette perimeter to fail because of fit reasons, but I didn't expect a team to be *this* bad (their gap behind 29th is on the verge of looking like the Raptors behind everyone else defensively last year), and I have no idea how they've been playing better defense adding two major squeaky wheels in Maggette and Gooden, Bogut recovering from his injury, and Salmons looking uninvested. This is the ultimate Skiles/Brown emphasis impact example, if it holds up. Doesn't it seem like it'd take far more energy to make a Jennings/Salmons/Maggette/Bogut led offense work because of 3 perimeter creators and Bogut? It's a more talented perimeter but much more complicated, like running a Ferrari car or taking a higher level test in school. It needs far more practice and energy to make it work. And it looks like without that time, they're crashing the car. And if he has to work even harder to get a team with Maggette and Gooden up to speed DRTG wise, maybe that further kills their time for offense
I wonder if you can tie the Heat in here too. Most of us are disappointed with the Heat's offense despite their big ORTG (3rd) based on smashing bad teams. Against good ds they've looked mediocore and lost offensively. But their DRTG (4th) is quite excellent, despite horrible interior defense and rebounding, usually the cornerstones of defense. Then look at last year's Heat. Somehow the Arroyo/Wade/QRich/Beasley/JO team ranked 7th in DRTG, while only 19th in ORTG, low for a superstar led team. Both teams ended up about right for Ws/SRS compared to talent level. I remember stories about how Beasley and Cook weren't even practicing offense on last year's Heat. Beasley's weak play in Miami and breakout this year could be related to actually practicing offense. Is Spo in the Skiles/Brown zone? Very possibly.
I also think back to KG's Wolves peripherals. Usually top 7 offensively, usually 15-18 range defensively. The 50 Ws stretch made sense, but you'd think it'd be the opposite ORTG/DRTG splits for a team consisting of an all-time defender and no supporting talent. Maybe Flip coached all offense knowing KG would prop up his d by himself. Like the inverse of the AI and Brown relationship - AI ran the offense, Brown concentrated everything on the defense.
If the implications of coach emphasis is true, it means ORTG/DRTG splits do not mean as much as judging Ws and SRS. So when you see Wade's team having mediocore offense and great d, and KG's team having great offense and mediocore d, that could have a lot to do with coaching that doesn't alter Ws but alters ORTG/DRTG split (since I think most coaches can't improve Ws by themselves, they can just maximize what's on the table)
Perhaps most importantly, it could mean star offense inadvertently helps their team DRTGs. If an offensive star allows his coach to go full on with defense, then it doesn't matter whether it shows up in ORTG or DRTG, it shows up in the Ws. Again the Wade example sticks out. As does this year's Hornets and Heat being 3rd and 4th in DRTG, last year's Thunder being top 9 in DRTG, the Cavs being great defensively all of Lebron's tenure, the Lakers being a near dominant defensive team since they got Gasol, the Mavs usually playing good defense with Dirk, etc. Last year's top 10 DRTGs were: Charlotte, Milwaukee, Orlando, LA, Boston, Cleveland, Miami, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Utah. So it's Charlotte, Milwaukee, and then a offensive superstar row. Coincidence?
I'm ruling out Skiles and Brown just having 'amazing defense schemes'. I'm not sure such a thing is possible. Most teams play defense similarly, if Skiles and Brown just had schemes that were out of this world, other teams would catch up and use the same thing. Furthermore if it came down to a superiority on paper, the beforementioned drop in ORTG would not occur as they would be unrelated. Skiles and Brown are not using better defensive technology via Xs and Os.
I don't think it's *too* related to going for less fast break leaks and getting back more, since this would be reflected in Pace and having much better defensive rebounding than offensive, which is not the case for Skiles and Brown teams.
So my premise is it's related to EMPHASIS. Brown and Skiles teams play defense better than offense cause they want them to. That's what they practice. That's what they use their energy for. That's what they're told to hang their hat on. The coach 'system' encompasses not just xs and os, but what the players should do.
And I specifically label this year's Bucks as an extreme example of this. While early in the season, they rank 2nd in DRTG and 30th in ORTG. The early stats say they've gotten worse offensively and better defensively than last year despite adding Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette to the lineup. I expected the Jennings/Salmons/Maggette perimeter to fail because of fit reasons, but I didn't expect a team to be *this* bad (their gap behind 29th is on the verge of looking like the Raptors behind everyone else defensively last year), and I have no idea how they've been playing better defense adding two major squeaky wheels in Maggette and Gooden, Bogut recovering from his injury, and Salmons looking uninvested. This is the ultimate Skiles/Brown emphasis impact example, if it holds up. Doesn't it seem like it'd take far more energy to make a Jennings/Salmons/Maggette/Bogut led offense work because of 3 perimeter creators and Bogut? It's a more talented perimeter but much more complicated, like running a Ferrari car or taking a higher level test in school. It needs far more practice and energy to make it work. And it looks like without that time, they're crashing the car. And if he has to work even harder to get a team with Maggette and Gooden up to speed DRTG wise, maybe that further kills their time for offense
I wonder if you can tie the Heat in here too. Most of us are disappointed with the Heat's offense despite their big ORTG (3rd) based on smashing bad teams. Against good ds they've looked mediocore and lost offensively. But their DRTG (4th) is quite excellent, despite horrible interior defense and rebounding, usually the cornerstones of defense. Then look at last year's Heat. Somehow the Arroyo/Wade/QRich/Beasley/JO team ranked 7th in DRTG, while only 19th in ORTG, low for a superstar led team. Both teams ended up about right for Ws/SRS compared to talent level. I remember stories about how Beasley and Cook weren't even practicing offense on last year's Heat. Beasley's weak play in Miami and breakout this year could be related to actually practicing offense. Is Spo in the Skiles/Brown zone? Very possibly.
I also think back to KG's Wolves peripherals. Usually top 7 offensively, usually 15-18 range defensively. The 50 Ws stretch made sense, but you'd think it'd be the opposite ORTG/DRTG splits for a team consisting of an all-time defender and no supporting talent. Maybe Flip coached all offense knowing KG would prop up his d by himself. Like the inverse of the AI and Brown relationship - AI ran the offense, Brown concentrated everything on the defense.
If the implications of coach emphasis is true, it means ORTG/DRTG splits do not mean as much as judging Ws and SRS. So when you see Wade's team having mediocore offense and great d, and KG's team having great offense and mediocore d, that could have a lot to do with coaching that doesn't alter Ws but alters ORTG/DRTG split (since I think most coaches can't improve Ws by themselves, they can just maximize what's on the table)
Perhaps most importantly, it could mean star offense inadvertently helps their team DRTGs. If an offensive star allows his coach to go full on with defense, then it doesn't matter whether it shows up in ORTG or DRTG, it shows up in the Ws. Again the Wade example sticks out. As does this year's Hornets and Heat being 3rd and 4th in DRTG, last year's Thunder being top 9 in DRTG, the Cavs being great defensively all of Lebron's tenure, the Lakers being a near dominant defensive team since they got Gasol, the Mavs usually playing good defense with Dirk, etc. Last year's top 10 DRTGs were: Charlotte, Milwaukee, Orlando, LA, Boston, Cleveland, Miami, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Utah. So it's Charlotte, Milwaukee, and then a offensive superstar row. Coincidence?