What does the '11 Raptors spiked rebounding tell us?
Posted: Sat Dec 4, 2010 9:14 pm
Thought this was an interesting stat so far this year, and not just cause it involves my team
Last year the Raptors had a 49.5% total rebound rate (21st), 72.9 DRB% (23rd), 24.7 ORB% (24th). So a bad rebounding team. We lost Bosh in the summer who grabbed 10.8 rebounds a game at a 17.7 TRB% and 25.2 DRB%, ranking 10th in both categories
So logically, losing him should lead to a disastrous rebounding team. Not only is this year's present team not disastrous, but they're actually great at rebounding. Their 52.3 TRB% ranks tied for 2nd in the league, 75.2 DRB% is 11th, 30.2 ORB% is 5th.
Meanwhile Miami was 10th in TRB% in 09-10 and are 14th this year, adding Lebron and Bosh (two of the best rebounders at their position) and sending Beasley and JO out (both awful rebounders for their position). They fell from 6th to 9th in DRB% and 19th to 27th in ORB%
It would appear at the very least, we can assume Bosh's rebounding to fit under TrueLAFan's "Camby empty rebound effect" - Both were skinny guys who didn't box out much. (and by the way Portland's rebounding, particularly on the defensive end, has fallen off big time this year) So it'd seem leaving their man open to jump for a rebound had a neutral or negative effect on their rebounding. This makes sense. I think it's more important to treat rebounding as denying opponents offensive boards than grabbing defensive boards. The negative value of a given offensive rebound is so far greater than the positive value of grabbing a defensive board. If you don't grab the DRB, your team is still 75-80% likely to get the ball. If you allow an offensive board, your team has 0% chance to have the ball. Big difference.
Of course, a team with the worst rebounding center of all time ranking top 2 in TRB% certainly should make us take a double take on our rebounding perceptions. It makes me believe rebounding is about so much more than your biggest guy's stats. Perimeter guys are important, the distribution of roles is important (if someone's only job is to rebound, he's more likely to do it), and effort is huge. Where the shots are coming from is important for offensive rebounds. Last year Hedo, Bosh, Bargnani all were on the perimeter, which is no spot for offensive rebounds. Having Evans and Amir Johnson inside makes a big difference, especially with the other big man outside. Evans and Amir have the two best ORB%s in the league, btw
In the case of a Bargnani - his lack of rebounding may not be forgiveable, but you can make the case being a 7'1 guy who doesn't jump or leave his man to is not hurting his team if he's denying the opponent offensive rebounds. The rebounds just distribute to the rest of the team. Chris Bosh and Marcus Camby grab 10 rebounds a game by leaving their man and jumping for balls... At the very least I'm considering the difference between staying home on rebounders and jumpers, is far less than the numbers suggest.
Rebounding may be more like blocking shots than we realize. Duncan has always gotten credit for his 2.5bpg+ being completley in position and set in the defense, compared to Camby's 3bpg leaving his man all the time. Maybe it's the same with rebounding. There's a difference between 10rpg destroying your opponent's ORB% and 10rpg jumping for defensive rebounds. I would love to see a opponent ORB% stat, I think it'd be the most important rebounding stat if accurate.
Last year the Raptors had a 49.5% total rebound rate (21st), 72.9 DRB% (23rd), 24.7 ORB% (24th). So a bad rebounding team. We lost Bosh in the summer who grabbed 10.8 rebounds a game at a 17.7 TRB% and 25.2 DRB%, ranking 10th in both categories
So logically, losing him should lead to a disastrous rebounding team. Not only is this year's present team not disastrous, but they're actually great at rebounding. Their 52.3 TRB% ranks tied for 2nd in the league, 75.2 DRB% is 11th, 30.2 ORB% is 5th.
Meanwhile Miami was 10th in TRB% in 09-10 and are 14th this year, adding Lebron and Bosh (two of the best rebounders at their position) and sending Beasley and JO out (both awful rebounders for their position). They fell from 6th to 9th in DRB% and 19th to 27th in ORB%
It would appear at the very least, we can assume Bosh's rebounding to fit under TrueLAFan's "Camby empty rebound effect" - Both were skinny guys who didn't box out much. (and by the way Portland's rebounding, particularly on the defensive end, has fallen off big time this year) So it'd seem leaving their man open to jump for a rebound had a neutral or negative effect on their rebounding. This makes sense. I think it's more important to treat rebounding as denying opponents offensive boards than grabbing defensive boards. The negative value of a given offensive rebound is so far greater than the positive value of grabbing a defensive board. If you don't grab the DRB, your team is still 75-80% likely to get the ball. If you allow an offensive board, your team has 0% chance to have the ball. Big difference.
Of course, a team with the worst rebounding center of all time ranking top 2 in TRB% certainly should make us take a double take on our rebounding perceptions. It makes me believe rebounding is about so much more than your biggest guy's stats. Perimeter guys are important, the distribution of roles is important (if someone's only job is to rebound, he's more likely to do it), and effort is huge. Where the shots are coming from is important for offensive rebounds. Last year Hedo, Bosh, Bargnani all were on the perimeter, which is no spot for offensive rebounds. Having Evans and Amir Johnson inside makes a big difference, especially with the other big man outside. Evans and Amir have the two best ORB%s in the league, btw
In the case of a Bargnani - his lack of rebounding may not be forgiveable, but you can make the case being a 7'1 guy who doesn't jump or leave his man to is not hurting his team if he's denying the opponent offensive rebounds. The rebounds just distribute to the rest of the team. Chris Bosh and Marcus Camby grab 10 rebounds a game by leaving their man and jumping for balls... At the very least I'm considering the difference between staying home on rebounders and jumpers, is far less than the numbers suggest.
Rebounding may be more like blocking shots than we realize. Duncan has always gotten credit for his 2.5bpg+ being completley in position and set in the defense, compared to Camby's 3bpg leaving his man all the time. Maybe it's the same with rebounding. There's a difference between 10rpg destroying your opponent's ORB% and 10rpg jumping for defensive rebounds. I would love to see a opponent ORB% stat, I think it'd be the most important rebounding stat if accurate.