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So I thought about this, I don't know if others have looked this up but I was interested so I did some research.

Blocks are blocks right? Well, some blocks can spark a fastbreak for your team, while others give the ball back to the offense with a chance to score. Obviously, the former is what you want and the latter is what you want to avoid.

Basically, I just looked through hundreds of play by plays to look for every single block this year of the top 10 blockers (blocks per game) this year (per ESPN stats), and check the line after the block to see who ends up with the ball. Is it the offense, or did the defense (blocker's team) recover it?

And yes, I know sometimes a guy will block it and the offense will recover it with 3sec on the shotclock at the 3 line, which results in a horrible shot. That's not what I'm looking at. When you look at rebound stats, you see how many offensive/defensive reb a team had, and don't say "well that O Reb didn't count since it resulted in a bad last second shot... they have 10 instead of 11". I'm looking at blocks, and who ended up with the ball after that. Blocks that go out of bounds of course go back to the offense.

Top 10 Blockers in the NBA (bpg)
1. Andrew Bogut - 2.81
2. JaVale McGee - 2.61
3. Darko Milicic - 2.35
4. Amar'e Stoudemire - 2.35
5. Dwight Howard - 2.23
6. Serge Ibaka - 2.12
7. Tim Duncan - 2.02
8. Pau Gasol - 1.95
9. Al Jefferson - 1.93
10. Marcus Camby - 1.87

Top 5 Blockers in the NBA, sorted by Block Recovery Rate (followed by total blocks recovered by defense - total blocks recovered by offense)
1. Andrew Bogut - 66.7% (58-29)
2. Al Jefferson - 63.3% (50-29)
3. Marcus Camby - 63% (46-27)
4. Tim Duncan - 62.7% (52-31)
5. Serge Ibaka - 59.8% (52-35)
6. Darko Milicic - 59.6% (56-38)
7. Amar'e Stoudemire - 54.3% (51-43)
8. JaVale McGee - 53.5% (53-46)
9. Howard - 49.4% (43-44)
10. Pau Gasol - 44% (37-47)


We're halfway through the season, so now is an ok time to check this out. These stats are accurate as of January 19th (before the games played that day).

What do you guys think? What did you expect? Any surprises? Questions/criticisms/concerns/comments appreciated. Remember, a higher % means that the blocker's team came up with the ball, which is a very good thing.

This was just posted on Basketball-reference.com too.

Not really any surprises. McGee and Howard look for highlight-type blocks, while Bogut and Duncan are pretty fundamentally sound in all facets of the game, and while they're not the most athletic guys either... well, now I wonder if it's a conscious effort to block balls to teammates, or if they're just compensating for a lack of athleticism and they'd do athletic, crowd-pleasing swats if they had the chance.

Is it reasonable to assume that all sets of teammates are reasonably equivalent when it comes to chasing down those blocks? Or could it be that a scrappy hustling well coached team like San Antonio would get to more of those free balls than a group of low basketball IQ, me first, lazy players like . . . well, not to point fingers.

penbeast0 wrote:Is it reasonable to assume that all sets of teammates are reasonably equivalent when it comes to chasing down those blocks? Or could it be that a scrappy hustling well coached team like San Antonio would get to more of those free balls than a group of low basketball IQ, me first, lazy players like . . . well, not to point fingers.

Excellent point. That is a huge intangible to have. I always thought Chauncey Billups was pretty good at chasing blocked shots down.

I would have thought Pau Gasol would be even higher. I feel like when he blocks shots, all he does is stop the ball. He doesn't swat the ball that much.

ronnymac2 wrote:I would have thought Pau Gasol would be even higher. I feel like when he blocks shots, all he does is stop the ball. He doesn't swat the ball that much.

Stops the ball and it goes straight down into the offensive player's hands again

There is value in blocking it to teammates, to be sure, but there is also value in blocking it out of bounds. Basketball has lots to do with confidence, and if you can kill an opposing player's confidence, he'll play significantly worse.

azuresou1 wrote:There is value in blocking it to teammates, to be sure, but there is also value in blocking it out of bounds. Basketball has lots to do with confidence, and if you can kill an opposing player's confidence, he'll play significantly worse.

I still think this theory is bunk. If a guy smacked my ball out of bounds I wouldn't give two ****s because I'm getting the ball back anyways. Stupid move by the defender who's probably just trying to get onto sportscenter.

Do you actually play basketball? Have you ever demolished someone else's shot? It's pretty clear it's not a 'theory' because many players get demoralized after a powerful block and will take a lot more jumpshots or stop driving altogether for the duration of the game.

Maybe YOU don't get effected by getting swatted. Maybe you also don't get demoralized when someone posterizes you badly. Clearly this is not true for everyone and a big swat or poster can kill a player's confidence.

azuresou1 wrote:Do you actually play basketball? Have you ever demolished someone else's shot? It's pretty clear it's not a 'theory' because many players get demoralized after a powerful block and will take a lot more jumpshots or stop driving altogether for the duration of the game.

Maybe YOU don't get effected by getting swatted. Maybe you also don't get demoralized when someone posterizes you badly. Clearly this is not true for everyone and a big swat or poster can kill a player's confidence.

Yes I play basketball. And I'm short as hell (5'5), so I'd say I know what it feels like to get blocked. No, getting my shot swatted does not "demoralize me". It just means my team gets the ball back, and that the defensive player can block, but it stupid about it.

And I have never actually seen any proof of this idea at all. Only heresay. Until you can show me that proof, I think it's only fair to think that blocking a shot to a teammate is more valuable than blocking it out of bounds. The ball doesn't go in the hole, and your team gets possession. Seems like the better of the two options.

EDIT: When I block shots (yes I do block shots at my height) I tend to either not let the ball leave my man's hands (which I believe is a travel if they land without shooting, right?) or I block it right down onto the court. I don't swat.

Also, I'm not trying to say I'm great at basketball or anything, just that I've been there.

I wouldn't say they get demoralized so much as they get intimidated. Swatting it out of bounds makes it seem like he was just waiting for your weak ass drive and weak ass shot, so next time I'd think twice before coming in there like that.

I think Vince Carter is living proof that getting blocked or fouled hard enough can stop really good players from driving for the rest of the game.

CoffeeJanitor wrote:

azuresou1 wrote:There is value in blocking it to teammates, to be sure, but there is also value in blocking it out of bounds. Basketball has lots to do with confidence, and if you can kill an opposing player's confidence, he'll play significantly worse.

I still think this theory is bunk. If a guy smacked my ball out of bounds I wouldn't give two ****s because I'm getting the ball back anyways. Stupid move by the defender who's probably just trying to get onto sportscenter.

Well, probably the biggest impact of blockers is their ability to make players alter shots. Their presence turns high percentage shots to low ones. I'm guessing that aren't many players out there that see Dwight Howard around them and leave their shot unaltered because of his tendency to knock the ball out of bounds.

Still, if memory serves, Bogut doing far better in this metric was seen before this year. He's doing something good.

What may demoralize - and I agree this effect is highly overrated, someone should measure the performance of players after getting a shot blocked - is being blocked period. Why the heck would anyone be more demoralized by a block going outbounds vs. a block going to the opponents hands? Doesn't make any sense.

To me there's something more important than this: the kind of shots blocked. Blocking a high-percentage shot or a triple by Ray Allen is more valuable than blocking some circus shot or a mid-range 2 pointer.

droponov wrote:
To me there's something more important than this: the kind of shots blocked. Blocking a high-percentage shot or a triple by Ray Allen is more valuable than blocking some circus shot or a mid-range 2 pointer.

especially since you might have blocked a missed shot and turned it into a high efficiency one

Using the ratio of blocks that are inbounds to out of bounds is a bit misleading. I'd rather have a guy who blocks 3 shots a game, and 1 of them inbounds, than a guy who gets 1 block a game but they're all in-bounds. Blocks are always valuable, because every shot has at least a chance to go in... except one that's blocked.

That said, a consistent ability to block to a teammate is a positive that would be good to note within the context of overall blocking ability... perhaps some composite stat like PPR that accounts for the general value of each type of block (out of bounds, to teammate, to opposing team)?