Hollinger playoff odds

[tigermars]

Hollinger's championship odds for the bulls after back to back blowout wins, and some recent struggles by Celtic and Heat, is at 30.3%. I find that ridiculously too high. While maybe his formula is ok for a power-ranking. A power ranking is often used to reflect a form or performance of a team. I am guess his playoff odds are just a transform from the ratings to probability.

Currently best odds for bulls is about 8:1. Which is saying if Hollinger's odds is if i back the bulls, i am getting an expected +170% return. If I am laying heat or lakers, who are typically over-vauled I am getting +41% and +27%.

And the most intuitive to see how his playoff odds fail miserably is the denver nuggets. With string of home blowout wins. Hollinger is project them at 9%. While the odds around 100 (Not very large volumes). Basically getting 800% returns. Maybe reduce these returns if not using exchange or bookie, but nevertheless.

While projecting championship probability and the market is two different things, I find hollinger's method naive.

[Paydro70]

On Sportsbook.com you can get the Bulls at 3.5:1. That's 22% instead of 30%, but it's not too far off especially when you consider both fan favoritism for the Lakers/Heat/Celtics (the three teams ahead) and the notion that the Lakers/Celtics are "built for the playoffs" or are "coasting" or whatever.

The Nuggets had Carmelo for most of the playoff odds' basis, and aren't adjusted for his departure the way betting odds are. Again, betting odds are not estimations of teams' chances to win, but rather how many people will bet on them... and minus Carmelo, that number is going to be very low.

[tigermars]

Its better to use betting exchanges as the implied probability. Bookies implied probability will be on the high side. Just the top 4 add up to more than 1. Not counting spurs/mavs/magic. If the amount is of importance, betting exchange is much more limited, for example bulls there is only about 300 usd available at 8.6-7.6. For Lakers there is about 800 usd available for odds 4.1-3.9, while I think one could bet tens of thousand on the Lakers at 3.25.

Back to Hollinger odds, if you offer you a bet straight up between a set of teams.
Bulls/Nuggets vs Laker/Heat/Spurs/Celtic ? It would be no brainer which one to pick. According to hollingers these two groups are about 40% each, just like a coin flip+plus some chance that land on the edge, Mavs Magic win...

You could add some lesser teams to the first group, sixers/memphis/NO to match the probability within 0.1%.

[mysticbb]

I am guess his playoff odds are just a transform from the ratings to probability.

If by "transform" you mean a simulation of the rest of the season by using the ratings, you are correct. 30.3% for the Bulls just means that in 5000 simulation runs the Bulls ended up as the champion in 30.3% of the cases.

[Paydro70]

I suppose you're right, tigermars... it's obvious that Vegas believes the Bulls are nowhere near as likely to win as the Hollinger ratings suggest, and it's because the playoff odds system is way too heavily based on recent play. In the past 10 games, the Bulls have been on fire, and their margin for the past 25% is absurd (12.22!). I suppose what the rating is saying is if the Bulls could keep up their last 10-15 games' pace, they should be huge favorites to win. But if this is merely a hot streak, which it probably is, their odds are considerably lower. So... it's not a very useful tool, as constructed.

[tigermars]

does hollinger use simulations? kind of like accuscore?

I think one study which would interesting is the study of correlation between the market and his ratings. For example, the odds for the bulls are decreasing recently which would indeed coincide with the increase in his ratings. But these ratings constructed like this should be more like velocity (delta probability) and acceleration (delta probability), rather displacement (probability). Although some mechanism which allow more sudden change with injury/trades would also be needed.