Win Shares/48

[Ruhiel]

Why do people say its biased / make excuses for a player.

The stat coupled with things like offensive rating, defensive rating and a myriad of other %s ie TRB%, TS% is very revealing in why some teams lose.

The Win Share % for an "average" player is 10% and many players and supposed All Stars are below average.

- a player WS% can flux to below average
if he's flawed/unmotivated or just a utility player who's not good enough to carry a team

WS% can help you decide rotations and proves how much limiting minutes and playing certain lineups can help a team.

Seeing Tyson Chandler's name on WS/48 efficiency is surprising but he has done near that before and playing with Dirk and Kidd and Terry sure made him look like one of the best players in the league.

Chandler had the highest Offensive rating of any player in the NBA.
But because Chandler does not Isolate enough (+ injuries) he has been traded time and time again.

Tyson's Sharing the ball is better on any night than a Dwight Howard team constructed on bad $$ and centers isolating.

It helps to have a Dirk but when guys like Tyson Chandler are shown to be able to somewhat imitate a superstar its pretty impressive.

Then you have superstar teams with top heavy WS/48 and playing below 10% avg players

Conclusion: WS/48 shows the value of divvying up minutes and depth in rotations because most NBA superstars are just not superstars able to carry a below avg player.

[Nivek]

Why do people say its biased / make excuses for a player.

The stat coupled with things like offensive rating, defensive rating and a myriad of other %s ie TRB%, TS% is very revealing in why some teams lose.

Combining Win Shares with individual offensive and defensive ratings would be redundant since Win Shares are based on individual defensive ratings.

And, there are significant problems with the individual defensive ratings stat, which is essentially a series of estimates drawn from box score stats. Drtg over-estimates stops for players who generate blocks, rebounds and assists, and under-estimates stops for players who don't. So, drtg systematically underrates guys like Joe Dumars or Bruce Bowen. Plus, the heavy influence of TEAM drtg in the individual stat further skews the results toward average defenders on a good defensive team; and against a good defender on a weak defensive team.

It's fine for a quick look, but I wouldn't use Win Shares for serious analysis.

[Paydro70]

If I'm not mistaken, DRTG is actually ONLY a team's defensive efficiency while a player is on the court. So it has nothing to do with blocks or rebounds, or any other individual stat. You are correct about its bias regarding average defenders on good defensive teams, and of course the flipside (great defenders on bad defensive teams).

Personally I'm not a fan of win shares for this reason.

[Ruhiel]

Drtg is defensive efficiency and a starter like Dumars would/should have a worse efficiency than a backup (Vinnie Johnson) because Dumar's going against

Reggie Miller, Jordan, Drexler. Vinnie Johnson has to go against lesser backups. So no DRtg doesnt tell the whole story.

Perhaps thats the reason Isiah and Lambier have more Defensive Wins than Dumars consistently. Lambier's physicality and rebounding at center and Isiah (awareness and quickness) at PG generated more stops than Dumars at SG because they had easier comp.

WS/48 is better now because the positions are much much shallower. No Drexler, Miller, Jordan, etc. every night.
Of course some players stats are going to be altered by better teammates

Win Shares/48 would say that across eras, big men generate more wins on defense than guards.
(ie a Biedrins/Josh Smith block leads to Monta/Joe Johnson in transition)

"Win Shares" as a total is not as important as analyzing a players skill set and their WS/48.

[Nivek]

If I'm not mistaken, DRTG is actually ONLY a team's defensive efficiency while a player is on the court. So it has nothing to do with blocks or rebounds, or any other individual stat. You are correct about its bias regarding average defenders on good defensive teams, and of course the flipside (great defenders on bad defensive teams).

Personally I'm not a fan of win shares for this reason.

In "Basketball On Paper." Dean Oliver explains in considerable detail how individual drtg is calculated, and it does incorporate defensive rebounds, blocks and steals, as well as a team defense component. This is the process they use at basketball-reference.

Individual drtg is greatly improved by hand tracking info needed to accurately calculate defensive stops and defensive "usage," but it can be a laborious and time-consuming process.