Free Throw % Allowed...

[john2jer]

LOL, I know it's an absolute worthless stat, but I'm curious what a ranking would look like for opponent's free throw percentage. Anyone have a link?

[mysticbb]

Something like this? http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... ponent::12

[john2jer]

Bingo. If I'm reading that right, the Thunder "allow" their opponents to shoot 77.8% from the free throw line while the Heat "hold" their opponents to 72%? Absolutely no correlation to anything, was just curious if there by chance might have been.

[mysticbb]

Bingo. If I'm reading that right, the Thunder "allow" their opponents to shoot 77.8% from the free throw line while the Heat "hold" their opponents to 72%? Absolutely no correlation to anything, was just curious if there by chance might have been.

Well, it can be interpreted that the Heat are fouling the "right" players while the Thunder the "wrong" players. To confirm that we would need to look at the typical averages of the players the Heat and the Thunder are sending to the line.

[john2jer]

Yeah, you could take it to that. I just meant you don't see the bad teams all towards the top of that list and the good teams all towards the bottom. It's just a jumbled mix. Good and bad on both ends.

[mysticbb]

Yeah, you could take it to that. I just meant you don't see the bad teams all towards the top of that list and the good teams all towards the bottom. It's just a jumbled mix. Good and bad on both ends.

Well, a regression of the data from 2004/05 to 2011/12 shows a significant correlation ( R = 0.37) between opponents FT% and DRtg. Better defensive teams are "holding" their opponents in average to lower FT%. If that is just related to luck or a skill to foul the right players, no idea, but I suspect the latter.

[rrravenred]

Hardness of fouls might also be a (small) factor, providing a small penalty to the fouled player.

[ElGee]

Yeah, you could take it to that. I just meant you don't see the bad teams all towards the top of that list and the good teams all towards the bottom. It's just a jumbled mix. Good and bad on both ends.

Well, a regression of the data from 2004/05 to 2011/12 shows a significant correlation ( R = 0.37) between opponents FT% and DRtg. Better defensive teams are "holding" their opponents in average to lower FT%. If that is just related to luck or a skill to foul the right players, no idea, but I suspect the latter.

Bingo - my guess would be better defensive teams avoid fouling great free throw shooters.

[Doctor MJ]

Yeah, you could take it to that. I just meant you don't see the bad teams all towards the top of that list and the good teams all towards the bottom. It's just a jumbled mix. Good and bad on both ends.

Well, fundamentally, certain types of players are better free throw shooters than others. Big man are bad free throw shooters, and hence if you disproportionately foul big men, you would expect to look good by this metric.

Whether or not this means a team is actually doing something right is completely up for debate, but the data itself is without question meaningful as an indicator of team defensive trends in the same way that analysis of the types of shots allowed are meaningful.

[ElGee]

Let me expound because Doc is going into more detail - fouling is part of defense. When Dwyane Wade took 831 free throws in the 06 Finals, most of it was due to the defense's inability to stay in front of him. Good defenses won't commit bad fouls -- fouls usually away from the hoop, against good shooting guards (either on the dribble -- yikes -- or on their jumper). They will guard the rim area well usually, and that means rotating well, even if it means to foul on high percentage shots near the hoop.

This could be tested with some creative data analysis...namely, are the Chauncey Billups of the world shooting fewer free throws against elite defenses while Ben Wallace is taking more?

[Chicago76]

Yu could definitely test this in detail, but my hunch is that controlling for the primary variables, the difference is pretty miniscule.

St dev of opp FT% is .0134. Avg opp team FT% is .7513. +/- 1 st dev from average is .982x to 1.018x of league avg team opp FT%. That's pretty tiny.

Compare that to the tendency of teams to put opponents on the line: FTA/FGA. +/- 1 st dev is 0.881x to 1.119x of the league avg opp FTA/FGA ratio. The st dev itself is roughly 2.5x bigger but as a % of avg rates it is about 6 times bigger than FT% variation.

Whatever advantage a team gets from knowing who to foul is pretty inconsequential compared to their ability not to put people on the line at all. It's so small that without actually crunching the #s, it's probably perfectly reasonable to assume that most of the variance is due to the unbalanced schedule in the league, ie, teams that play good FT shooting teams more often probably yield a higher opp FT% than those that don't.

If someone were to isolate all of the noise (schedule opp FT% and home-road splits for subtle changes in FT shooting environment), the difference between the 4th best and 4th worst team in the league might result in a 0.25 or so pt/game difference.

[Dr Positivity]

Could a factor be that good teams are going to be on the right side of the "Icing the game at the FT line" situation more often, assuming players with good FT% are more likely to be passed the ball at that point? (And naturally, good teams are more likely to find the better FT shooters and defend against it better on the other tend, tieing into the fouling the right players factor)

[EvanZ]

Ask and ye shall receive (I was already working on this, anyway). 2.5-yr Adjusted FT% allowed (mean is 74.8%):

Players with >3000 possessions played.

Code: Select all

RANK   NAME   TEAM   DFT%
1   Johan Petro   NJN   -1.51
2   Jason Smith   NOH   -1.49
3   Eric Maynor   OKC   -1.07
4   Kurt Thomas   POR   -1.04
5   JaVale McGee   WAS   -0.91
6   Derrick Favors   UTA   -0.87
7   Zaza Pachulia   ATL   -0.86
8   O.J. Mayo   MEM   -0.83
9   Kwame Brown   GSW   -0.83
10   Shelden Williams   NJN   -0.80
11   James Jones   MIA   -0.79
12   Mehmet Okur   NJN   -0.79
13   Dirk Nowitzki   DAL   -0.78
14   Martell Webster   MIN   -0.78
15   Ekpe Udoh   MIL   -0.76
16   Travis Outlaw   SAC   -0.74
17   Francisco Garcia   SAC   -0.72
18   Tyrus Thomas   CHA   -0.72
19   Tracy McGrady   ATL   -0.71
20   Wayne Ellington   MIN   -0.68
21   Chris Kaman   NOH   -0.68
22   Marquis Daniels   BOS   -0.68
23   Marvin Williams   ATL   -0.67
24   Alonzo Gee   CLE   -0.66
25   Mike Conley   MEM   -0.64
26   Darren Collison   IND   -0.63
27   Brandon Rush   GSW   -0.63
28   LaMarcus Aldridge   POR   -0.62
29   Jose Barea   MIN   -0.62
30   Spencer Hawes   PHI   -0.62
31   Ryan Hollins   CLE   -0.61
32   Tim Duncan   SAS   -0.61
33   Drew Gooden   MIL   -0.60
34   Terrence Williams   HOU   -0.60
35   J.J. Hickson   SAC   -0.59
36   Randy Foye   LAC   -0.59
37   Keyon Dooling   BOS   -0.57
38   DeJuan Blair   SAS   -0.56
39   Tyson Chandler   NYK   -0.56
40   Hakim Warrick   PHX   -0.55
41   Derek Fisher   LAL   -0.54
42   Nick Collison   OKC   -0.53
43   Udonis Haslem   MIA   -0.50
44   Anthony Carter   TOR   -0.50
45   Brad Miller   MIN   -0.50
46   Anthony Morrow   NJN   -0.49
47   Robin Lopez   PHX   -0.48
48   J.R. Smith   NYK   -0.48
49   Greivis Vasquez   NOH   -0.48
50   Pau Gasol   LAL   -0.44
51   Caron Butler   LAC   -0.40
52   Vince Carter   DAL   -0.39
53   Al Harrington   DEN   -0.39
54   Rashard Lewis   WAS   -0.38
55   Rudy Fernandez   DEN   -0.38
56   Al-Farouq Aminu   NOH   -0.38
57   George Hill   IND   -0.37
58   Landry Fields   NYK   -0.35
59   Luol Deng   CHI   -0.33
60   Erick Dampier   ATL   -0.33
61   Gerald Wallace   POR   -0.33
62   Brandon Bass   BOS   -0.33
63   Mario Chalmers   MIA   -0.31
64   Jerryd Bayless   TOR   -0.30
65   David West   IND   -0.30
66   Rodrigue Beaubois   DAL   -0.29
67   Danny Granger   IND   -0.28
68   Trevor Booker   WAS   -0.27
69   Charlie Villanueva   DET   -0.27
70   Jonny Flynn   POR   -0.26
71   Jason Richardson   ORL   -0.26
72   Jonas Jerebko   DET   -0.26
73   Marcus Thornton   SAC   -0.26
74   Jamal Crawford   POR   -0.25
75   Jeff Teague   ATL   -0.25
76   Derrick Rose   CHI   -0.24
77   Marc Gasol   MEM   -0.24
78   Goran Dragic   HOU   -0.24
79   Steve Blake   LAL   -0.22
80   Louis Amundson   IND   -0.22
81   Jordan Hill   HOU   -0.21
82   Jared Dudley   PHX   -0.21
83   Donte Greene   SAC   -0.20
84   Ramon Sessions   LAL   -0.19
85   Metta World Peace   LAL   -0.19
86   Will Bynum   DET   -0.18
87   Carlos Boozer   CHI   -0.18
88   Anthony Parker   CLE   -0.18
89   Toney Douglas   NYK   -0.17
90   Rudy Gay   MEM   -0.17
91   Joel Anthony   MIA   -0.16
92   Raymond Felton   POR   -0.16
93   Craig Smith   POR   -0.16
94   Greg Monroe   DET   -0.16
95   Shane Battier   MIA   -0.15
96   Kobe Bryant   LAL   -0.14
97   Wes Matthews   POR   -0.14
98   Tyler Hansbrough   IND   -0.13
99   Brendan Haywood   DAL   -0.13
100   Blake Griffin   LAC   -0.13
101   Anthony Randolph   MIN   -0.12
102   Kirk Hinrich   ATL   -0.11
103   Joakim Noah   CHI   -0.11
104   Samuel Dalembert   HOU   -0.11
105   Dahntay Jones   IND   -0.11
106   Paul Pierce   BOS   -0.10
107   Amir Johnson   TOR   -0.10
108   Manu Ginobili   SAS   -0.10
109   Chris Duhon   ORL   -0.10
110   J.J. Redick   ORL   -0.09
111   Delonte West   DAL   -0.09
112   Kevin Martin   HOU   -0.09
113   Eric Gordon   NOH   -0.09
114   Shaun Livingston   MIL   -0.08
115   Darrell Arthur   MEM   -0.08
116   Devin Harris   UTA   -0.07
117   Luis Scola   HOU   -0.07
118   Kyle Korver   CHI   -0.07
119   Josh McRoberts   LAL   -0.07
120   Matt Bonner   SAS   -0.06
121   Paul George   IND   -0.06
122   Anderson Varejao   CLE   -0.06
123   Anthony Tolliver   MIN   -0.05
124   Shawn Marion   DAL   -0.04
125   Leandro Barbosa   IND   -0.04
126   Boris Diaw   CHA   -0.04
127   Earl Watson   UTA   -0.04
128   Tony Parker   SAS   -0.03
129   DeMar Derozan   TOR   -0.03
130   Omri Casspi   CLE   -0.03
131   Derrick Brown   CHA   -0.02
132   C.J. Watson   CHI   -0.01
133   Taj Gibson   CHI   -0.01
134   Arron Afflalo   DEN   -0.01
135   Shannon Brown   PHX   -0.01
136   Austin Daye   DET   -0.01
137   Jordan Farmar   NJN   0.00
138   Trevor Ariza   NOH   0.01
139   Marcin Gortat   PHX   0.01
140   Dwyane Wade   MIA   0.02
141   James Harden   OKC   0.02
142   Rodney Stuckey   DET   0.02
143   Ben Gordon   DET   0.02
144   Roy Hibbert   IND   0.02
145   Josh Smith   ATL   0.03
146   Chris Paul   LAC   0.03
147   Dwight Howard   ORL   0.04
148   Zach Randolph   MEM   0.04
149   Andris Biedrins   GSW   0.04
150   Ersan Ilyasova   MIL   0.05
151   Amare Stoudemire   NYK   0.05
152   Mickael Pietrus   BOS   0.05
153   Ronnie Brewer   CHI   0.06
154   Richard Jefferson   GSW   0.06
155   Stephen Jackson   SAS   0.06
156   Deron Williams   NJN   0.07
157   D.J. Augustin   CHA   0.08
158   Thaddeus Young   PHI   0.08
159   A.J. Price   IND   0.08
160   Michael Beasley   MIN   0.08
161   Richard Hamilton   CHI   0.08
162   LeBron James   MIA   0.08
163   Grant Hill   PHX   0.09
164   Bill Walker   NYK   0.09
165   Ray Allen   BOS   0.09
166   DeShawn Stevenson   NJN   0.09
167   Kevin Durant   OKC   0.10
168   Louis Williams   PHI   0.11
169   Troy Murphy   LAL   0.11
170   Hedo Turkoglu   ORL   0.11
171   Rajon Rondo   BOS   0.11
172   Danilo Gallinari   DEN   0.12
173   Nikola Pekovic   MIN   0.12
174   David Lee   GSW   0.12
175   Evan Turner   PHI   0.13
176   Nick Young   WAS   0.13
177   Kris Humphries   NJN   0.13
178   Nene Hilario   DEN   0.14
179   C.J. Miles   UTA   0.15
180   Chauncey Billups   LAC   0.15
181   Andrew Bynum   LAL   0.15
182   Jarrett Jack   NOH   0.15
183   Al Jefferson   UTA   0.15
184   Andray Blatche   WAS   0.15
185   Channing Frye   PHX   0.15
186   Stephen Curry   GSW   0.16
187   Quentin Richardson   ORL   0.16
188   Chuck Hayes   SAC   0.16
189   Serge Ibaka   OKC   0.16
190   Jason Maxiell   DET   0.16
191   Nicolas Batum   POR   0.17
192   John Salmons   SAC   0.17
193   Dante Cunningham   MEM   0.18
194   Glen Davis   ORL   0.18
195   Wilson Chandler   DEN   0.18
196   Russell Westbrook   OKC   0.18
197   Chase Budinger   HOU   0.18
198   Monta Ellis   MIL   0.19
199   Ryan Anderson   ORL   0.19
200   Elton Brand   PHI   0.20
201   Kevin Garnett   BOS   0.21
202   Luke Ridnour   MIN   0.21
203   Ronnie Price   PHX   0.22
204   Josh Howard   UTA   0.23
205   Carlos Delfino   MIL   0.23
206   Chris Andersen   DEN   0.23
207   Matt Barnes   LAL   0.23
208   Dominic McGuire   GSW   0.23
209   Andre Iguodala   PHI   0.23
210   Sebastian Telfair   PHX   0.23
211   Jodie Meeks   PHI   0.23
212   Andres Nocioni   PHI   0.23
213   Jose Calderon   TOR   0.24
214   Jermaine O'Neal   BOS   0.24
215   James Johnson   TOR   0.25
216   Paul Millsap   UTA   0.25
217   Chris Bosh   MIA   0.25
218   Mo Williams   LAC   0.26
219   Mike Dunleavy   MIL   0.26
220   Juwan Howard   MIA   0.27
221   John Wall   WAS   0.28
222   Jrue Holiday   PHI   0.29
223   Carmelo Anthony   NYK   0.30
224   Rasual Butler   TOR   0.30
225   Lamar Odom   DAL   0.30
226   Raja Bell   UTA   0.30
227   Courtney Lee   HOU   0.31
228   Tyreke Evans   SAC   0.32
229   Marreese Speights   PHI   0.33
230   Tony Allen   MEM   0.33
231   Roger Mason   WAS   0.33
232   Jason Terry   DAL   0.34
233   Kenyon Martin   LAC   0.35
234   Luc Mbah a Moute   MIL   0.36
235   Brook Lopez   NJN   0.36
236   Dorell Wright   GSW   0.36
237   Baron Davis   NYK   0.37
238   Ed Davis   TOR   0.38
239   DeMarcus Cousins   SAC   0.38
240   Willie Green   ATL   0.39
241   Corey Maggette   CHA   0.39
242   Kyle Lowry   HOU   0.40
243   Steve Nash   PHX   0.40
244   Antawn Jamison   CLE   0.40
245   Thabo Sefolosha   OKC   0.42
246   Carl Landry   NOH   0.43
247   Reggie Williams   CHA   0.43
248   Brandon Jennings   MIL   0.43
249   Al Horford   ATL   0.44
250   Kevin Love   MIN   0.44
251   Emeka Okafor   NOH   0.47
252   Darko Milicic   MIN   0.49
253   Joe Johnson   ATL   0.49
254   Daniel Gibson   CLE   0.49
255   Sam Young   PHI   0.49
256   Jason Kidd   DAL   0.49
257   T.J. Ford   SAS   0.51
258   Andre Miller   DEN   0.51
259   Eric Bledsoe   LAC   0.55
260   Damien Wilkins   DET   0.55
261   Mike Bibby   NYK   0.56
262   DeAndre Jordan   LAC   0.56
263   Jameer Nelson   ORL   0.57
264   Beno Udrih   MIL   0.57
265   Patrick Patterson   HOU   0.57
266   Tayshaun Prince   DET   0.61
267   Jordan Crawford   WAS   0.61
268   Gerald Henderson   CHA   0.62
269   Andrea Bargnani   TOR   0.65
270   Kendrick Perkins   OKC   0.66
271   Nate Robinson   GSW   0.66
272   Jason Thompson   SAC   0.68
273   Ty Lawson   DEN   0.71
274   Omer Asik   CHI   0.72
275   Yi Jianlian   DAL   0.74
276   Gary Neal   SAS   0.74
277   Daequan Cook   OKC   0.74
278   Nazr Mohammed   OKC   0.77
279   Ronny Turiaf   WAS   0.78
280   Gordon Hayward   UTA   0.82
281   Wesley Johnson   MIN   0.83
282   Marcus Camby   HOU   0.84
283   Vladimir Radmanovic   ATL   0.84
284   Andrew Bogut   GSW   0.88
285   Maurice Evans   WAS   0.90
286   Tiago Splitter   SAS   1.03
287   Ben Wallace   DET   1.05
288   Mike Miller   MIA   1.11
289   Ryan Gomes   LAC   1.13
290   Corey Brewer   DEN   1.13
291   Reggie Evans   LAC   1.17
292   Chris Wilcox   BOS   1.19
293   Marco Belinelli   NOH   1.21
294   Jared Jeffries   NYK   1.26

Does this mean anything? Probably not much. More important would be adjusted free throw rate.