Advanced Stats and Dennis Rodman
Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 8:55 am
i've always felt rodman was not just a HOFer, but an all-time great. my opinion was that people criticized him because they didn't accept him, or thought he was complete garbage offensively. you know, the four on five on offense and you don't need to guard him comments. again, i felt either these people hated him, or do not have the intellectual capacity to observe the game of basketball beyond solely focusing on who is scoring the points.
anyone who has observed his career will point out that in reality, he was talented enough to be a pretty good scorer. he was just too good not to be. what most don't realize is that he hated scoring more than most players hate playing defense. it wasn't part of his image. it wasn't who he wanted to be. it's not like he was ben wallace, who used every iota of the limited offensive ability he had. rodman could have been a 15 ppg scorer, maybe even peaked at 20 ppg if he committed himself to it. that's not what he was about though, and it never hurt his teams because that was never what his teams needed. the other important thing here is that there is alot more to offensive ability than just scoring. you don't have to score many points to make a significant impact on your team offensively. when rodman came to the bulls, some questioned how he would function in the triangle, which is arguably the most difficult offense to learn in NBA history. most players (assuming they are even capable of comprehending the triangle) need two years to fully understand it. tex winter claimed rodman picked up the triangle faster than anyone in all his years teaching it, notoriously saying it took him just one practice to "get it". winter also raved about rodman's bball iq and passing ability, going as far as stating that rodman threw the best chest passes he's ever seen. kerr, beuchler, jordan, pippen would constantly talk about the added wrinkles rodman gave the bulls offensively.
if you asked the opinion of rodman's teammates, coaches and opponents, the theme is pretty much the same. this guy was one of the greatest players ever. yet there are plenty of casual fans and even media around the world, who claim he was nothing more than a very good role player, even some feeling he was undeserving of the HOF.
so what is the lesson in all this? listen to the people who know the game. if the greatest players and coaches in nba history call dennis rodman a legend, take their word for it.
still don't agree? need further proof? what you find may upset you even more.
i wasn't always big on advanced stats. to this day i still despise PER and most hollinger related formulas which i believe are over-hyped to make money for ESPN. but i am learning that many advanced stats are free from personal touches, way more informative than hard stats, and can provide a solid backing to ideas that are sometimes difficult to substantiate on paper.
now, i am still a neophyte to advanced stats. i took a few statistics courses in college, so i get it, but like all things i'm sure there is alot more to really understanding its meaning than some basic background checks. i'm asking the advanced stats gurus for their interpretation on the following, because if even just half of what i have learned is true, dennis rodman is more than a HOFer, he is undoubtedly one of the very best players to ever step on a basketball court. this is from benjamin morris of skeptical sports. maybe he is a renowned statistician, maybe he's incompetent. that's why i'm asking you for your input. just a warning, this is a long read, so i'll give some highlights.
-rodman dominated rebounding percentage more than anyone has ever dominated any major stat
-we can expect someone of rodman's caliber to show up once every 400 years
-even the second best rebounder in nba history, was not even close to being in rodman's league
-rodman has the highest MOV of any player since 1986
-rodman's teams were SIGNIFICANTLY better offensively WITH him in the lineup, even after DISCOUNTING his offensive rebounding (unbelievable)
-rodman has the greatest win percentage differential in nba history (even more incredible since this is impossible to achieve when you play on already great teams)
-rodman's x-factor (difference between MOV-predicted and actual win percentage differential) greater than anyone who ever played
-the top 5% of players with the best differentials make the HOF. depending on which differential used, rodman is in the 98th to 99.98th percentile
-his differentials are statistically significant well beyond the 99th percentile of confidence.
-depending on the metric, rodman is the 2nd to 8th greatest player ever
-his average metrics across the board rank second only to shaq
-somehow, his advanced stats suggest he is even more valuable than his already other-worldly win differentials indicate
-focusing on defense and rebounding made rodman infinitely more valuable than he would be if he welcomed himself to scoring too, no matter how many points he scored
-dennis rodman is probably more valuable than michael jordan; at worst he is equally as valuable
these results are shocking, and while no one would agree with all of them, they appear to be free from bias and based purely on advanced analytics. while i always thought rodman was an all-time great, i never thought there would be numbers saying he is possibly the greatest player ever. i am sure plenty of people think this is preposterous, and many wouldn't even have him in the top 50. in reading this, i have become even more acceptive of advanced stats, since they help to perpetuate the otherwise opinionated belief of myself and many that rodman was truly legendary. but i'm also wondering about the validity of advanced analytics, when all signs point to rodman being the GOAT (at least on current sample sizes). does the outcome of this study confirm that rodman's value was as good as it gets, or just make a complete joke of the matter? or somewhere in between?
http://skepticalsports.com/?page_id=1222
anyone who has observed his career will point out that in reality, he was talented enough to be a pretty good scorer. he was just too good not to be. what most don't realize is that he hated scoring more than most players hate playing defense. it wasn't part of his image. it wasn't who he wanted to be. it's not like he was ben wallace, who used every iota of the limited offensive ability he had. rodman could have been a 15 ppg scorer, maybe even peaked at 20 ppg if he committed himself to it. that's not what he was about though, and it never hurt his teams because that was never what his teams needed. the other important thing here is that there is alot more to offensive ability than just scoring. you don't have to score many points to make a significant impact on your team offensively. when rodman came to the bulls, some questioned how he would function in the triangle, which is arguably the most difficult offense to learn in NBA history. most players (assuming they are even capable of comprehending the triangle) need two years to fully understand it. tex winter claimed rodman picked up the triangle faster than anyone in all his years teaching it, notoriously saying it took him just one practice to "get it". winter also raved about rodman's bball iq and passing ability, going as far as stating that rodman threw the best chest passes he's ever seen. kerr, beuchler, jordan, pippen would constantly talk about the added wrinkles rodman gave the bulls offensively.
if you asked the opinion of rodman's teammates, coaches and opponents, the theme is pretty much the same. this guy was one of the greatest players ever. yet there are plenty of casual fans and even media around the world, who claim he was nothing more than a very good role player, even some feeling he was undeserving of the HOF.
so what is the lesson in all this? listen to the people who know the game. if the greatest players and coaches in nba history call dennis rodman a legend, take their word for it.
still don't agree? need further proof? what you find may upset you even more.
i wasn't always big on advanced stats. to this day i still despise PER and most hollinger related formulas which i believe are over-hyped to make money for ESPN. but i am learning that many advanced stats are free from personal touches, way more informative than hard stats, and can provide a solid backing to ideas that are sometimes difficult to substantiate on paper.
now, i am still a neophyte to advanced stats. i took a few statistics courses in college, so i get it, but like all things i'm sure there is alot more to really understanding its meaning than some basic background checks. i'm asking the advanced stats gurus for their interpretation on the following, because if even just half of what i have learned is true, dennis rodman is more than a HOFer, he is undoubtedly one of the very best players to ever step on a basketball court. this is from benjamin morris of skeptical sports. maybe he is a renowned statistician, maybe he's incompetent. that's why i'm asking you for your input. just a warning, this is a long read, so i'll give some highlights.
-rodman dominated rebounding percentage more than anyone has ever dominated any major stat
-we can expect someone of rodman's caliber to show up once every 400 years
-even the second best rebounder in nba history, was not even close to being in rodman's league
-rodman has the highest MOV of any player since 1986
-rodman's teams were SIGNIFICANTLY better offensively WITH him in the lineup, even after DISCOUNTING his offensive rebounding (unbelievable)
-rodman has the greatest win percentage differential in nba history (even more incredible since this is impossible to achieve when you play on already great teams)
-rodman's x-factor (difference between MOV-predicted and actual win percentage differential) greater than anyone who ever played
-the top 5% of players with the best differentials make the HOF. depending on which differential used, rodman is in the 98th to 99.98th percentile
-his differentials are statistically significant well beyond the 99th percentile of confidence.
-depending on the metric, rodman is the 2nd to 8th greatest player ever
-his average metrics across the board rank second only to shaq
-somehow, his advanced stats suggest he is even more valuable than his already other-worldly win differentials indicate
-focusing on defense and rebounding made rodman infinitely more valuable than he would be if he welcomed himself to scoring too, no matter how many points he scored
-dennis rodman is probably more valuable than michael jordan; at worst he is equally as valuable
these results are shocking, and while no one would agree with all of them, they appear to be free from bias and based purely on advanced analytics. while i always thought rodman was an all-time great, i never thought there would be numbers saying he is possibly the greatest player ever. i am sure plenty of people think this is preposterous, and many wouldn't even have him in the top 50. in reading this, i have become even more acceptive of advanced stats, since they help to perpetuate the otherwise opinionated belief of myself and many that rodman was truly legendary. but i'm also wondering about the validity of advanced analytics, when all signs point to rodman being the GOAT (at least on current sample sizes). does the outcome of this study confirm that rodman's value was as good as it gets, or just make a complete joke of the matter? or somewhere in between?
http://skepticalsports.com/?page_id=1222