Playoff Tidbits and SRS Odds

[ElGee]

The current (playoff) versions of the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks, Clippers, Grizzlies, Spurs and even Heat (am I forgetting anyone relevant?) are not the versions we have seen of these all season. Using the SRS only of these teams as they've performed with their PS lineups, what would a playoff prognostication look like?

My series calculator is based on performance from the last 5 regular seasons and last 10 postseasons.

EAST
Miami vs. Milwaukee: 99.8% Heat

Spoiler:

If we call Miami a 7 SRS team (season performance): 98.2% Miami
If we call Miami a 10 SRS team ("healthy" performance post Jan. 14): 99.8%

NYK vs. Boston: 72.8% Knicks

Spoiler:

Boston is +1.4 SRS in 38 games with Garnett and Bradley.
New York is +3.4 SR S in 56 games with Chandler and Anthony.

These two teams played each other twice in January, with the Celtics scoring 3 more points than New York. That aside, a +2 SRS means a 72.8% chance for New York.

Indiana vs. Atlanta: 78.4% Pacers

Brooklyn vs. Chicago: 64.9% Nets

Spoiler:

Unless Derrick Rose returns.

WEST
OKC vs. Houston: 91.3% Thunder
SAS vs. LAL: 96.6% Spurs

Spoiler:

It's 97% if the Lakers full RS performance holds, but the Lakers will essentially field a new team on Sunday. The Spurs are +8.3 with Duncan and Parker in the lineup this year.

Denver vs. GSW 85.9% Nuggets
LAC vs. Memphis: 78.4% Clippers

Spoiler:

The Clippers are +7.5 SRS with Paul, Griffin and Butler in the lineup. The Grizzlies are +4.5 since the Prince trade.

I'd agree that Chicago and Boston are the most likely teams to spring first-round upsets.