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To me, the starting point for evaluating a prospect should be his accomplishments in the NCAA. How good is a player? How early did he impact the NCAA? How much did he help his team? I've put together some numbers to answer those questions.

Below are Statistical Plus/Minus numbers (2013/14) for the prospects currently listed as first-rounders by DraftExpress (NCAA players only). These are adjusted for both (A) the quality of the team/competition and (B) the players age (critical when comparing prospects). Higher is better. To give some context, >15 is a great #1 overall (e.g. Anthony Davis), >8 is a solid lotto pick, 7-5 is a solid first-rounder, 4-3 is a fringe first-rounder, <2 is trouble.

13 Nerlens Noel
6 Ben McLemore
6 Anthony Bennett
10 Victor Oladipo
9 Trey Burke
10 Otto Porter
5 Alex Len
6 C.J. McCollum
8 Cody Zeller
1 Shabazz Muhammad
4 Michael Carter-Williams
4 Mason Plumlee
7 Kelly Olynyk
5 Gorgui Dieng
6 Archie Goodwin
8 Steven Adams
5 Jeff Withey
3 Jamaal Franklin
-2 Tony Mitchell
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
6 Shane Larkin
3 Allen Crabbe
3 Reggie Bullock
4 Erick Green

A few points...
1. Noel is the clear number 1 if healthy.
2. It's hard to justify McLemore and Bennett going in the top 5 based on what they did in the NCAA. If you have them that high, you are really going on "potential".
3. Adams and Caldwell-Pope are potential steals in the mid-to-late first.
4. Muhammad and Tony Mitchell are BRUTAL by this metric.
5. Arsalan Kazemi is the highest rated guy not on the list (he gets a "6"). He reminds me a bit of Faried.

NOTE: cross post from draft board

Okay so here you used the full stat title lol. I understand your thinking, but my advice for the other board remains.

Good to see numbers.

I agree with you that Noel is the best prospect in the draft at least pre-injury, but I do think these numbers overrate his actual impact. His blocks & steals imply he'll be an absolute legend if his brain grows into his body, but he wasn't anywhere near as smart as Anthony Davis was last year, and even Davis has a learning curve ahead of him.

Interesting to me to see Burke rated so high. I don't disagree, I'd just expect an SPM stat to not be that fond of a point guard without crazy steals.

With McLemore, he's such a tough prospect to read for me. He simply doesn't have the go of a star right now, and that makes him erratic.

Muhammad, yup, that guy has some serious re-learning to do. Plan A stopped working when he stopped playing high school kids a year younger than him.

Doctor MJ wrote:I agree with you that Noel is the best prospect in the draft at least pre-injury, but I do think these numbers overrate his actual impact. His blocks & steals imply he'll be an absolute legend if his brain grows into his body, but he wasn't anywhere near as smart as Anthony Davis was last year, and even Davis has a learning curve ahead of him.

Interesting to me to see Burke rated so high. I don't disagree, I'd just expect an SPM stat to not be that fond of a point guard without crazy steals.

With McLemore, he's such a tough prospect to read for me. He simply doesn't have the go of a star right now, and that makes him erratic.

Noel - This system rates Davis >>> Noel. So part of the reason Noel looks like such a stand-out is the lack of a quality #2 in the draft. Pre-injury I would have said Noel was a solid #1 overall guy, but not great... then he got hurt. He's still the best prospect in the draft (by a wide margin) unless your doctors tell you to stay away.

Burke - Burke is that high because he had a historically great offensive season, as an underclassmen. I would actually take him #2 overall, I think this system UNDER rates him. Burke is the only guy in this draft that I could see being the #1 offensive player on a good team in the NBA. And that is so incredibly valuable.

McLemore - He's got a great jump shot, but does he look like an above average player in any other phase of the game? He's a good prospect, but I don't understand the idea that he should be #2 overall.