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howt to find win probability at certain points

Posted: Sat Dec 6, 2014 4:06 am
by RSCD3_
So ive seen a lot of things off of ESPN's twitter where they talk about what the probability was of a team that pulled off a a great comeback and I was wondering what type of formula you would use to figure out odds in any situation

Re: howt to find win probability at certain points

Posted: Tue Dec 9, 2014 2:04 pm
by andyhop
If you have the score of lots of games broken down by time (however finely you want ,so by minute or second or whatever) you can work out how many teams came back from down X at the Y minute point of the game and calculate the odds from that and the total of teams down X at the Y minute mark.

Re: howt to find win probability at certain points

Posted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:50 pm
by RSCD3_
andyhop wrote:If you have the score of lots of games broken down by time (however finely you want ,so by minute or second or whatever) you can work out how many teams came back from down X at the Y minute point of the game and calculate the odds from that and the total of teams down X at the Y minute mark.


How could I acquire this information with next to no technology or programming background. Would it cost?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Re: howt to find win probability at certain points

Posted: Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:14 pm
by TigerInYourTank
RSCD3_ wrote:
andyhop wrote:If you have the score of lots of games broken down by time (however finely you want ,so by minute or second or whatever) you can work out how many teams came back from down X at the Y minute point of the game and calculate the odds from that and the total of teams down X at the Y minute mark.


How could I acquire this information with next to no technology or programming background. Would it cost?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums


As a developer, I see it as non-trivial.I see it from the standpoint of parsing data from websites automatically, putting it in a database, setting up a UI, and using R to do the processing/math. It would cost about a half a week to a week, which is roughly $2000. This would probably he a very quick-and-dirty setup (half-assed). However, some guys will do it for free out of interest. I'm sure I will do this groundwork, eventually.