Nerlens Noel is officially underrated

[BallinBen]

Josh Lloyd: No NBA player has ever matched Noel’s per game steal (1.8) and block (1.7) averages through his rookie and sophomore year and he has the second-highest career defensive box plus-minus trailing only David Robinson.

That's pretty insane considering Celtics fans think that offering Terry Rozier or Marcus Smart is "fair value".

[loganpm]

He didn't quite play all 82 games, though he didn't miss many. While I agree with you that he's a huge defensive talent, I think that his skills are still blossoming and that he's way too young to even have an underrated or overrated label attached.

I have to admit I haven't seen more than a hour or so of him playing in a real game, but he appears to have the speed and instinct to be the kind of hybrid, multi-faceted defender that the new NBA so desperately craves, like a fresh new teenage craze. Everybody wants a Draymond Green, and while I envision Noel to be more of an elite inside defender than Green, his steal stats prove that he's good at poking in thick traffic down in the paint or he's long and quick enough to deflect passes around the perimeter. This is an invaluable asset for a team that strives to run the switch-all defense that Golden State perfected these last couple of years.

I don't really know what his go-to move on offensive is, as I haven't watched him play enough, but ever since draft day he's been heralded as an other-worldly, prodigious defensive talent. He's kind of a smaller center, which is fine when running small ball, which he would fit so nicely into. I wonder what the analytics say about the time of steals Nerlon commonly gets, whether they're on ball, fast-break opportunities or just simply flailing, long arms swiping the ball out of seemingly clear passing lanes. He doesn't seem uncoordinated or obnoxious on, rather the opposite, a slim but muscular physique that doesn't slug behind the guards like the laboring, 250 pound + centers of the distant past.

Marcus Smart has potential, still very young. If he can consistently keep a 35% or higher shooting percentage from the perimeter, you've got yourself a solid SG/PG hybrid that can conveniently defend both positions, switching off to a bigger two-guard or a quicker one-guard confidently and with his signature brand of unique hustle.With his size and mobility, his outside defense would be a high trade asset in a point-guard dominant league. I might be wrong, but I'm sure pretty sure that's why Thomas was a sixth man for a while, because he wasn't able to guard the best scoring points guards we've ever seen. Lucky for him, that off-the-bench season creating a lot of hype for his follow-up season, where his numbers weren't that much more higher and he still struggled balancing being a score-first point guard needing to pass the ball a bit more in Brad Stevens team-dependent style of play.

Add-on: Read an article posted on gm a couple days ago about Marcus Smart that details the same improvements needed that I'd listed, including shooting a higher percentage from the perimeter.

Link to article: http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/243198/Marcus-Smart-And-Bostons-Point-Guard-Quest

The article lays out Smarts shooting stats: "Last season, Smart shot just 21.8 percent on all catch-and-shoot jump shots. In comparison, he shot 39.3 percent on dribble pull-ups."


Most players tend to struggle shooting off the dribble more than a shot in a stand-and-shoot position, where the body is set and prepared. Seeing as Smart is uniquely the opposite, it would seem he has less hill to climb than a stand-and-shoot player, as he's a guard capable of being a shot creator and not typically used as an off-ball outside scorer anyways. It still seems really weird to me that he's more efficient at a dribbling, on-the-move shot than he's on a stand-still jumper. If you watch him play on the court, though, he's not your usual player going through the motions. There's a cleverness to his game, a sneakiness, that makes him unpredictable and energetic on both sides of the floor, but especially while guarding an opponent one-on-one.

Looking at Noel's stats, it seems that either he struggles to gather rebounds or maybe he was playing alongside a packed big-man lineup. He averaged 5.7 rebounds in 30.8 minutes, a pretty horrible statistic that kind of puts a stick on his block-steal numbers. 6 rebounds in 30 minutes? Really? Listed as 6 11' and appearing very agile on the court, one would expect him to bring down at least 9 rebounds. I mean, he's not being given small rookie minutes. He plays for the Sixers. He averaged 30 min per game!!

Hopefully he'll fix a box out or hustle issue and turn into a versatile, dominant defensive/rebounding center. Don't see much hope for his mid-range game improving ,though; his free throw form is absolutely grotesque.

[76ciology]

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[HotelVitale]

Looking at Noel's stats, it seems that either he struggles to gather rebounds or maybe he was playing alongside a packed big-man lineup. He averaged 5.7 rebounds in 30.8 minutes, a pretty horrible statistic that kind of puts a stick on his block-steal numbers. 6 rebounds in 30 minutes? Really? Listed as 6 11' and appearing very agile on the court, one would expect him to bring down at least 9 rebounds. I mean, he's not being given small rookie minutes. He plays for the Sixers. He averaged 30 min per game!!

Where da heck you get that from? Noel averaged exactly 8.1 rebs per game both his rookie and 2nd year, and about 10 rebs per 36 both years. He's a very good rebounder, better rebounding rate than guys like Draymond, Mozgov, Favors, etc.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Josh Lloyd: No NBA player has ever matched Noel’s per game steal (1.8) and block (1.7) averages through his rookie and sophomore year and he has the second-highest career defensive box plus-minus trailing only David Robinson.

That's pretty insane considering Celtics fans think that offering Terry Rozier or Marcus Smart is "fair value".

Boston fan here, I've seen those stats, they're the reason, plus the eye test and athletic attributes, that I think Noel could be an elite defensive player. He gets the rare kind of steals Smart does, where you see all 9 other players on the floor shift in one direction to stop themselves and re-set to sprint the other way. Not off of lazy or bad passes, off of good ones, but just crazy-quick and long and in the right place.

But the reason we think Rozier or Smart is fair is all the other stuff- your logjam, Noel's free agency and our cap situation, his limited offensive game and solid but not great rebounding. He's improved in the pick and roll, and is explosive, but it's as if you took Deandre Jordan, took away his bulk and rebounding dominance, and gave him crazy quickness instead.

I'm old enough to remember when Kirilenko was a basketball nerd darling a decade + ago, the way Draymond Green is now. Both guys are a little better offensively. That's where Noel could go, like prime Tyson Chandler plus the ability to defend out to the perimeter and get steals.

But whether he gets there, whether he adds anything to his offensive game, and what his trade value is- those are open questions.

Re: Smart, his development has been weird- A+ defense, C+ offense. We all think he'll get there with his shooting, and eventually his drives and in-between game, but we thought Sullinger would lose weight, too.

[loganpm]

Looking at Noel's stats, it seems that either he struggles to gather rebounds or maybe he was playing alongside a packed big-man lineup. He averaged 5.7 rebounds in 30.8 minutes, a pretty horrible statistic that kind of puts a stick on his block-steal numbers. 6 rebounds in 30 minutes? Really? Listed as 6 11' and appearing very agile on the court, one would expect him to bring down at least 9 rebounds. I mean, he's not being given small rookie minutes. He plays for the Sixers. He averaged 30 min per game!!

Where da heck you get that from? Noel averaged exactly 8.1 rebs per game both his rookie and 2nd year, and about 10 rebs per 36 both years. He's a very good rebounder, better rebounding rate than guys like Draymond, Mozgov, Favors, etc.

I was looking specifically at his defensive rebounding numbers but I didn't make that clear at all, so my fault. Maybe I sound like an old fashioned Bill Russell super fan in that I think 6 11' centers should be able to grab more than 5.7 defensive rebounds in 30 minutes of play. He averaged 2.5 offensive boards, which is pretty solid; it took DeAndre Jordan a few years in the league to grab 2 and a half offensive reb per game. Maybe he's a box-out and clear space kind of player, though; have to check on the rest of Philly roster and see if any guards have an un-guardly amount of boards. Westbrook gets rebounds but he's basically just running up and snatching them away from his centers who work hard to box-out the opposing team; kind of bad for team morale. I've seen OKC games where the centers had their arms raised upright, glance to the left and see Westbrook and just let him have it.

[HotelVitale]

I was looking specifically at his defensive rebounding numbers but I didn't make that clear at all, so my fault. Maybe I sound like an old fashioned Bill Russell super fan in that I think 6 11' centers should be able to grab more than 5.7 defensive rebounds in 30 minutes of play..

All due respect, the criticism's still confusing. Noel's per minute defensive rebounding isn't particularly weak (it's middle of the pack for rotation centers), about the same as Aldridge, Vucevic, etc and just a hair away from Draymond, Duncan, Jokic, etc and better than guys like Horford, Favors, etc. Plus it's completely arbitrary to say that defensive rebounds matter more than off ones, esp since conventional wisdom says the opposite.

If you mean 'it would be cool if Noel were in the elite class of defensive rebounders,' you should say that. But what you said was 'how can a 6'11 center possibly get so few def rebounds?!'--which makes little sense since that's a roughly average rate for def rebounding for a 6'11 center and certainly not a big embarrassing weak spot.

EDIT:

He averaged 5.7 rebounds in 30.8 minutes, a pretty horrible statistic that kind of puts a stick on his block-steal numbers. 6 rebounds in 30 minutes? Really? Listed as 6 11' and appearing very agile on the court, one would expect him to bring down at least 9 rebounds..

There are exactly 3 players who pulled down 9 def rebounds per game last year, and they're all among the all-time greatest rebounders. No one would ever expect any center who wasn't a freak rebounder to pull those #s. Your frame of reference is very, very far off here.