Free throw defense

[Fencer reregistered]

Here's a minor/loopy/fun subject:

One would expect FT% against to be pretty random as team stat, except perhaps for very small differences based on the fact that different teams consistently play slightly different schedules. Hence the jokes about teams being good or bad at "free throw defense".

On the other hand, it's also possible that different teams would play different defensive schemes, leading to a different mix of opposing players being fouled, in which case FT% against might have more of a non-random component. Ditto if some teams play Hack-A-Shaq strategies to a sufficiently great extent to matter.

Has anybody ever done any analysis to figure out what the true situation is?

I did eyeball the annual rankings in FT% against, and there didn't seem to be much correlation from one year to the next. But I didn't spend any significant time on it.

[blabla]

It is definitely random when you look at players on their own, e.g. Drummond may hit 4/4 one day, 0/4 the next
But I'm sure some teams are fouling "smarter" than others, as well
I haven't seen any analysis on which teams foul the smarters or have the most luck. Might be interesting

For what it's worth, the regression for ESPN's Real +/- doesn't use actual points scored per Free Throw, but "expected points scored" based on that player's season FT%