RealGM

I recently started reading El Gee's articles on Backpicks, and I noticed he uses SRS as a measure of a team's strength, followed by the equivalent win-pace. Is there a commonly used formula or table for converting SRS to expected wins or vice versa? Is this dependent on season (for instance, mean and SD of league SRS as parameters)? I hope I'm not missing something super obvious, but I couldn't find anything after about 30 minutes of searching.

Taking a cursory glance at some of the SRS values and the expected win percentages and using a logistic model, I estimate that the win percentage is roughly 1 / ( 1 + exp( - 0.1476 x )), although the coefficient seems fairly inaccurate since I'm fitting the parameter based on two significant figure data points (integer number of wins and SRS values).

I'll ask him how he does his on Twitter.

shawngoat23 wrote:I recently started reading El Gee's articles on Backpicks, and I noticed he uses SRS as a measure of a team's strength, followed by the equivalent win-pace. Is there a commonly used formula or table for converting SRS to expected wins or vice versa? Is this dependent on season (for instance, mean and SD of league SRS as parameters)? I hope I'm not missing something super obvious, but I couldn't find anything after about 30 minutes of searching.

Mmkay, so here's what Ben said he's used:

Expected Wins =((SRS/2+105)^15.3)/(((SRS/2+105)^15.3)+((105-SRS/2)^15.3))*82

I copy pasted that, and didn't double check for any typos, but it looks good at first glance. He said it's just a bit of an update on Oliver's formula.

Thanks for taking the time to do that!