is VORP the closest thing to a BPM WAR/Wins Added?

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is VORP the closest thing to a BPM WAR/Wins Added? 

Post#1 » by jamaalstar21 » Mon May 31, 2021 5:12 pm

Doing a little research project on award voting vs. catch-all metrics, and trying to decide how best to use some of the metrics when it comes to accounting for games played (something that is important to the awards discourse/voting).

RAPTOR has WAR, EPM has Estimated Wins, LEBRON has Wins Added, RPM has RPM Wins.

If I wanted to use bballref's BPM 2.0, which explains that VORP=[BPM - (-2.0)] * (% of possessions played) * (team games/82)

Would you say it's safe to use VORP as a version of BPM that weighs games played appropriately enough?
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Re: is VORP the closest thing to a BPM WAR/Wins Added? 

Post#2 » by s0ciety » Tue Jun 15, 2021 1:40 am

Well, yes, it is exactly what VORP intends to do.
If you want it to be converted to "wins", then, per BPM creator:
To convert VORP to an estimate of wins over replacement, simply multiply by 2.7. This translates a player's efficiency differential approximately into wins, using the conversion rate near league-average rather than that in the diminishing returns area of the Pythagorean formula. By this methodology, Michael Jordan in 1989 was worth about 31 wins. (In reality, he would quickly push an average team into the diminishing returns region of the points-to-wins conversion.)

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