Clutchness and Team Impact (08/09)

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timdunkit
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Clutchness and Team Impact (08/09) 

Post#1 » by timdunkit » Mon Nov 9, 2009 1:00 am

Ok, I did this analysis month or so ago but decided it be fun to post it here on the statistical board.

A lot of time when we talk about clutchness, we usually get caught up in talking about individual stats and shooting percentages. However, no one really talks about how giving the ball impacts the team performance. Does a player really elevate his game at the end of games to make his team better and in the end win more games? This is the question I will be trying to answer today. Like all statisical analysis ... this isn't perfect.

Anyways, so what I did was select the best players from each teams (usually 2, sometimes 3, Orlando has 4 and Bucks/Knicks/GSW has zero players). Well 82games.com has a "clutch stat section" where they give the defensive and offensive rating per 48 minutes for a given player as well as how they do over 48 min of a regular game.
So the first is to calculate the difference between those two and then simply adjust them to pace and add the number together. The final number would give us the net points increase or impact per 48 minutes per 100 posessions. The key point to remember is that we are looking at each player in the context of there own team. And here are the numbers:

Code: Select all

Players   Pace Adjusted Impact
Lebron James   35.06200676
Pau Gasol   28.73806999
Josh Smith   26.67410714
Kobe Bryant   24.49628844
Joe Johnson   18.41517857
Hedo Turkoglu   17.76814735
Dirk Nowitzki   13.7704918
Rashard Lewis   13.65113759
Jason Kidd   13.22404372
Tim Duncan   11.76470588
Andre Miller   11.44444444
Andre Iguodola   10.88888889
Yao Ming   8.203991131
David West   8.086560364
Derrick Rose   7.303974221
Jose Calderon   7.065217391
Dwight Howard   6.825568797
Devin Harris   6.785317019
Ben Gordon   5.37056928
Paul Pierce   5.309734513
Jameer Nelson   5.092091008
Tony Parker   5.090497738
Allen Iverson   4.267589389
Chris Paul   4.10022779
Rusell Westbrook   4.05982906
Carmelo Anthony   3.181336161
Ray Allen   2.433628319
Andrea Bargnani   1.956521739
Mehmet Okur   1.611170784
Dwayne Wade   1.334816463
Vince Carter   0.333704116
Lamarcus Aldridge   0
Kevin Durant   -0.534188034
Chauncy Billups   -0.636267232
Gerald Wallace   -1.359003398
Deron Williams   -2.792696026
Shaq O'neal   -3.020833333
Richard Hamilton   -5.420991926
Chris Bosh   -5.760869565
Kevin Martin   -7.749469214
Rudy Gay   -8.657047725
Baron Davis   -8.794788274
Shane Battier   -11.19733925
Brandon Roy   -11.31639723
OJ Mayo   -14.20643729
Steve Nash   -15.3125
Al Jefferson   -16.15720524
Antwan Jamison   -16.48351648
Caron Butler   -16.81318681


Now a couple points to remember is that we are wondering whether a player elevates his game in the clutch and helps his team at the same time. So for example, Lebron James helps his team have a net increase 35 pts/100 possessions * 48 minutes in the clutch (last 5 minutes of a game) then what Lebron James does across a span of 48 minutes.

There are a couple of shockers on this list (Wade, Brandon Roy and Steve Nash). I expected Wade to have a bigger impact. However, I think Wade is more a statistical anomaly. Why? Wade does help his team have an increase points in the clutch; however, his team also gives up more points (possibly because weaker defenders are exploited by other teams) and hence a balancing effect happens and it looks that Wade doesn't have much of an impact. Steve Nash has a negative impact because his defense is absolutely putrid! I was shocked to see that the Suns allows 120 per 48 min with Steve Nash on the court during clutch. I can't make much comment on the Blazers and Brandon Roy because I don't watch a lot of Blazers basketball.

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