It's hard to say. First, radio and old TV tapes of basketball--even Cetlics basketball--were not prized. They were recorded over when possible, and not stored with any care when not recorded over. Highlights are so sporadic from the time when Russell played (and tend to be playoff oriented) that we don't get much of an idea of everyday play. But I think we can make a somewhat educated guess.
We can "guess" at how good a shot blocker Bill Russell was based on Block %. Conservatively, I'd place him around 6 to 6.2. That makes him better than Hakeem or DRob, not as good as Zo or Camby. For anyone that says, "Hey, Hakeem/Drob is a much better shot blocker than Russell was!"...keep in mind that Greg Ostertag, in terms of block %, is better than both...and you could make a good case for Russell being better than Ostertag. Anyway...6.0 to 6.2.
There's got to be some variation. I'm going to have Russell's block % randomly vary by about 25-30% total...from a low of 5.2 to a high of 7.1. Russell played pretty much the same amount per game in every season, so in terms of overall blocked shots and averages per season, we shouldn't be terribly far off. (We'll just have seasons in the wrong order).
To work the numbers back from block percentage, we have to estimate the number of opponent shots taken. This is tricky. Boston was the fastest paced team in the league for much of Russell's career. But they also were a great defensive team. I'm just going to guess that, on average, opponents took the same number of shots as the Celtics. We'll talk about the other scenarios later.
So here's what you end up with
Code: Select all
Year G Blk% Blk BPG
1957 48 5.7 204 4.24
1958 69 5.2 306 4.44
1959 70 6.0 417 5.96
1960 74 6.4 499 6.74
1961 78 7.1 598 7.67
1962 76 6.6 534 7.03
1963 78 5.5 437 5.61
1964 78 6.8 599 7.68
1965 78 6.4 494 6.34
1966 78 5.9 433 5.55
1967 81 6.2 434 5.36
1968 78 5.3 332 4.26
1969 77 5.6 386 5.02
TOTAL 963 6.1 5673 5.89
The 5-10 block a game statement seem to be, in general, accurate. Keep in mind that two main reasons for Russell blocking so many shots are that he played a lot of minutes and there were a lot more shots available to block. In terms of how many he blocked while he was on the court, he was truly great...but not markedly better than David Robinson, and as much behind Alonzo Mourning.
If you assume that the Celtic's opponents took 4% fewer shots, Russell's blocks drop by about .2 to .3 blocks every year. If they took 4% more shots than the listed amount, Russell's blocks go up by that same .2 to .3 every year. It's not going to change things all that much.
This is a quick and dirty projection. But I think it's, in general, accurate. I doubt it's wildly far off...I think ranking Bill Russell's shot blocking ability as falling in between Samuel Dalembert and Marcus Camby is, if anything, conservative. Still, my guess is that in a worst case (for him) scenario, Bill Russell was blocking 6 shots a game at his peak. In a best case scenario, it's probably over 8 and maybe close to 9. So, even though we can see that pace and era differences impacted it, I'm pretty cool with saying Bill Russell was blocking 5-8 shots a game pretty much every year.