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Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 4:26 pm
by Basketball Fan
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 33264.htmlBy DAVID BIDERMAN
NBA teams are increasingly hiring employees whose sole responsibility is to analyze data. Obviously, we don't have any philosophical problem with that. But here's a question: Does it actually make a difference in how teams play?
[COUNT_fixed] NBAE/Getty Images
Head coach Scott Brooks of the Oklahoma City Thunder
According to interviews with every team, The Wall Street Journal found that half the league's teams this season have at least one of these statisticians who helps make in-game, draft-day and trade-deadline decisions. Many of these teams are among the NBA's best. The list accounts for all six division leaders, including the Orlando Magic and Dallas Mavericks, who have a data analyst traveling with the team. These 15 teams that have invested heavily in statistics have combined to win 59.3% of their games this season. The 15 teams without such analysts have won 40.7% of their games, and only three—the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks—are on pace to make the postseason. Houston Rockets' general manager Daryl Morey, one of the pioneers of statistical analysis in the NBA, says more teams will soon come over to the quant side.
Of course, there are plenty of veteran basketball decision-makers who don't believe that stats are the only key to success. They'll tell you the difference in winning percentages has less to do with statistical analysis than with statistical freaks. "If you took LeBron off the Cavaliers, you could give them 10,000 number crunchers, and it wouldn't make a difference," says David Kahn, the Minnesota Timberwolves' president of basketball operations. David Biderman
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 4:57 pm
by heh8me2
Basketball Fan wrote:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704869304575109723724933264.html
By DAVID BIDERMAN
NBA teams are increasingly hiring employees whose sole responsibility is to analyze data. Obviously, we don't have any philosophical problem with that. But here's a question: Does it actually make a difference in how teams play?
[COUNT_fixed] NBAE/Getty Images
Head coach Scott Brooks of the Oklahoma City Thunder
According to interviews with every team, The Wall Street Journal found that half the league's teams this season have at least one of these statisticians who helps make in-game, draft-day and trade-deadline decisions. Many of these teams are among the NBA's best. The list accounts for all six division leaders, including the Orlando Magic and Dallas Mavericks, who have a data analyst traveling with the team. These 15 teams that have invested heavily in statistics have combined to win 59.3% of their games this season. The 15 teams without such analysts have won 40.7% of their games, and only three—the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks—are on pace to make the postseason. Houston Rockets' general manager Daryl Morey, one of the pioneers of statistical analysis in the NBA, says more teams will soon come over to the quant side.
Of course, there are plenty of veteran basketball decision-makers who don't believe that stats are the only key to success. They'll tell you the difference in winning percentages has less to do with statistical analysis than with statistical freaks. "If you took LeBron off the Cavaliers, you could give them 10,000 number crunchers, and it wouldn't make a difference," says David Kahn, the Minnesota Timberwolves' president of basketball operations. David Biderman
my thoughts exactly. its a nice thing to have but stat geeks are making way too big a deal out of it so they can get jobs
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:02 pm
by Ripp
David Kahn is an idiot. It still makes sense to use your resources as efficiently as possible, whether you have Lebron or not. Statistics can help you do that.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:04 pm
by Sting3r
and? Towel boys need jobs too. IF its giving results then they should make it a big deal. Were not talking about hollinger stats were per determines who's the best player is. Their is some correlation of having hard solid stats and how your team plays.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:42 pm
by raleigh
Ripp wrote:David Kahn is an idiot. It still makes sense to use your resources as efficiently as possible, whether you have Lebron or not. Statistics can help you do that.
Agreed. That's an incredibly stupid quote on his part. I clicked on the article just to make sure it was really there.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:47 pm
by BBall_IQ
Why do you think Vegas is so good at picking lines
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:48 pm
by heh8me2
i still think they are overstating their worth
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:51 pm
by Spicy P
heh8me2 wrote:Basketball Fan wrote:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704869304575109723724933264.html
By DAVID BIDERMAN
NBA teams are increasingly hiring employees whose sole responsibility is to analyze data. Obviously, we don't have any philosophical problem with that. But here's a question: Does it actually make a difference in how teams play?
[COUNT_fixed] NBAE/Getty Images
Head coach Scott Brooks of the Oklahoma City Thunder
According to interviews with every team, The Wall Street Journal found that half the league's teams this season have at least one of these statisticians who helps make in-game, draft-day and trade-deadline decisions. Many of these teams are among the NBA's best. The list accounts for all six division leaders, including the Orlando Magic and Dallas Mavericks, who have a data analyst traveling with the team. These 15 teams that have invested heavily in statistics have combined to win 59.3% of their games this season. The 15 teams without such analysts have won 40.7% of their games, and only three—the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks—are on pace to make the postseason. Houston Rockets' general manager Daryl Morey, one of the pioneers of statistical analysis in the NBA, says more teams will soon come over to the quant side.
Of course, there are plenty of veteran basketball decision-makers who don't believe that stats are the only key to success. They'll tell you the difference in winning percentages has less to do with statistical analysis than with statistical freaks. "If you took LeBron off the Cavaliers, you could give them 10,000 number crunchers, and it wouldn't make a difference," says David Kahn, the Minnesota Timberwolves' president of basketball operations. David Biderman
my thoughts exactly. its a nice thing to have but stat geeks are making way too big a deal out of it so they can get jobs
Sorry, but David Kahn is a moron. It's not like the statisticians are playing the games on the court like Lebron. They're used to analyze things from a quantitative perspective and to make decisions. Don't see how that guy is comparing the two. It's not like it's a substitute for players. It complements the basketball team. It's not a coincidence that teams using these guys have a 60% win percentage. Doesn't hurt to have them.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:54 pm
by ARISE_CHICKEN
The fact that 15 teams in the NBA don't have dedicated statistical analysis is mindblowing. I can't believe these people are professionals at what they do.
I would love to see the defensive rankings of those teams without "statheads" because statistics alone can improve a defense by a huge margin. How else are you supposed to know the efficiency of certain shots, calculate player hot and cold zones, see percentages of times people drive right and left? How can teams even play defense without taking these things into account?
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:54 pm
by Manhattan Project
Boston: .635
Cavs: .769
Orlando: .697
Dallas: .682
Denver: .672
Lakers: .723
Rockets: .508
Average: .670
What teams are weighing that down to a .593?
Why not say those teams?
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 6:02 pm
by azuresou1
The teams that have quants also tend to be the teams that already have competent GMs though, who in turn draft/trade for competent players.
Not to mention that quants often get lost in their own worlds and make dumb statements like saying they wouldn't take Kevin Durant for free on their team because he has a negative +/-.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 7:13 pm
by killbuckner
Shocking that having smart people instead of dumb people make decisions is better.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 7:19 pm
by john2jer
It's funny that so many of you idiots in this forum called Kahn an idiot for one sentence. Do you really think that was the only sentence that he provided to the question?
The Wolves have actually been very active with advanced stats and stat geeks.
Do you dispute what he said? If LeBron wasn't on the Cavs would stat geeks make that much of a difference? No, the Cavs would be terrible without him. Kahn never said they didn't have stat geeks, never said they were pointless, or anything of that matter.
His point was talent ultimately wins games, stats just help the process.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 7:20 pm
by Ripp
azuresou1 wrote:The teams that have quants also tend to be the teams that already have competent GMs though, who in turn draft/trade for competent players.
Not to mention that quants often get lost in their own worlds and make dumb statements like saying they wouldn't take Kevin Durant for free on their team because he has a negative +/-.
That was Wayne Winston..he is mostly reviled as a dumbass.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 7:25 pm
by Aaron It Out
john2jer wrote:It's funny that so many of you idiots in this forum called Kahn an idiot for one sentence. Do you really think that was the only sentence that he provided to the question?
.
I know someone who worked in the Wolves front office and he himself said that Kahn is a moron and has no business running and NBA team.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 7:32 pm
by 20MexicanosIn1Van
azuresou1 wrote:The teams that have quants also tend to be the teams that already have competent GMs though, who in turn draft/trade for competent players.
Great point. Correlation does not prove causation.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 7:33 pm
by wreck
As much as people around this forum make fun of statistics and guys like Hollinger, it is funny to see that all 6 division leaders employ some type of quantitative analysis guru on the team to help make decisions.
With so much human emotion and knowledge based on propaganda reported by ESPN or gut feelings, which are normally wrong, it isn't a surprise that the objective minded teams are achieving more success these days.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 7:33 pm
by The Shiv
If Morey is such a genius then why aren't the rockets in the playoff race?
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 7:39 pm
by john2jer
RJay715 wrote:john2jer wrote:It's funny that so many of you idiots in this forum called Kahn an idiot for one sentence. Do you really think that was the only sentence that he provided to the question?
.
I know someone who worked in the Wolves front office and he himself said that Kahn is a moron and has no business running and NBA team.
Really??? That's totally awesome, but I'm best friends with Jerry West's barber, and he says that Jerry says David Kahn is a genius and will revolutionalize the NBA.
Get out of here with that garbage. Most of the Wolves front office staff is similar to what was working under McHale. So you're "friends" with McHale or one of his lackeys? How'd McHale work out for the Wolves?
1. I think you're full of it on knowing anyone.
2. Even if you did, the credibility of your "source" is non-existent.
Re: Are Statheads the NBA's secret weapon?
Posted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 7:44 pm
by InBoobieWeTrust
I don't know any insiders who can comment on David Kahn.
But looking at his decisions since getting the job, he has no business running an NBA team. Although, he still gets a few more years to fix things, obviously.