GT #21: Timberwolves @ Bullets 7 PM (NBCSW/980 AM)

[nate33]

He is, he’s playing great ball.

But I’d like to see an analysis — if it’s possible — of how other players have been affected by his return.

I see more deferring than I would like, more passivity.

Last night was better than what’s been. In many games, Beal gets his, while the other players are not getting theirs, are standing around. And this isn’t measured at all by stats, but I believe that players who are not engaged on offense — who are denied touches, denied chances to cut and make plays — will not fight hard on defense, will not hustle their asxes off, will not do the little things.

This.
I'd like to see too if someone can deliver that data.

The first column is the on/off differential for the player. The second column is the on/off differential for the player when he is playing with Beal.



So going by on/off, Beal's presence appears to improve things when he is alongside Kuzma, Avdija, Morris and Kispert. Oddly, he doesn't improve matters with Porzingis. Beal being paired with either Barton or Hachimura looks particularly bleak.

Most of this data is close to worthless though. The sample sizes are just too small to be meaningful.

[doclinkin]

But I’d like to see an analysis — if it’s possible — of how other players have been affected by his return.

I see more deferring than I would like, more passivity.

Last night was better than what’s been. In many games, Beal gets his, while the other players are not getting theirs, are standing around. And this isn’t measured at all by stats, but I believe that players who are not engaged on offense — who are denied touches, denied chances to cut and make plays — will not fight hard on defense, will not hustle their asxes off, will not do the little things.

This.
I'd like to see too if someone can deliver that data.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01/on-off/2023

The team scores better with Brad in the game and is more efficient. Problem is opponents are more efficient with Brad in the game as well. Resulting in -1.6pts per 100 possessions.

Compare with Deni,

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/avdijde01/on-off/2023

Where the team is 7 points better with Deni in the game.

Still, looking at 2-man line-ups:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2023/lineups/

Brad + Morris is the 2nd highest in points per 100.

The stat that might make your point though is looking at efg% where Brad + Morris are the 10th best combo, and Deni shows up in 4 of the 10 most efficient duos before Brad even makes the list. Or look at the 4-man combos where Deni shows up in 7 of the top 10 most efficient scoring squads, and Brad is on 3 of them.

[Dolevi]

The offensive rating looks important.

I'll tell you about some interesting data as well that I've found there.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/shooting.fcgi?player_id=bealbr01&year_id=2023&game_result=W
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/shooting.fcgi?player_id=bealbr01&year_id=2023&game_result=L
I've compared our W to L stats of Brad.

In L he takes 33 more FGA, in less % than wins (50.3 vs 56.4), and also as a result of that the %Ast'd is higher in W. The percentages, everything. The split of Wins and Loses is crazy.
In L he takes 22 more Jumpshots also.
In Wins at the 4th quarter, Brad has a 61.1% Ast'd, and when losing - he has only 29.4%. Which means in loses he's taking probably more shots off the dribble with no passing game. Overall in W he scored 159 points, vs 193 in L, which confirms the difference that in loses he usually takes more bad shots (and still puts them in).
Out of our big 3 (Kuz, Brad and KP), Brad is the only one of them that when he's taking more shots - we lose games.

The point of what i'm saying is that maybe when he forces himself a little bit more on the game, and even with him finishing a big night while being very efficient - maybe that's causing us somehow losing more games, and more importantly - play in-efficient and non-beautiful basketball, with less ball movement, less passing. Especially in the 4th. And as a result of that also other players get less touches and chances to affect the game.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bartowi01/on-off/2023
Check out Barton's on/off. Not very good.

I'm still curious about the number of passes with Beal on the floor vs without, the number of touches other players get as well (with vs without). Especially in the 4th. My gamble will be that everything's lower with him playing.


Anyway Nate33 & doclinkin, thanks for the data!

[nate33]

The offensive rating looks important.

I'll tell you about some interesting data as well that I've found there.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/shooting.fcgi?player_id=bealbr01&year_id=2023&game_result=W
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/shooting.fcgi?player_id=bealbr01&year_id=2023&game_result=L
I've compared our W to L stats of Brad.

In L he takes 33 more FGA, in less % than wins (50.3 vs 56.4), and also as a result of that the %Ast'd is higher in W. The percentages, everything. The split of Wins and Loses is crazy.
In L he takes 22 more Jumpshots also.
In Wins at the 4th quarter, Brad has a 61.1% Ast'd, and when losing - he has only 29.4%. Which means in loses he's taking probably more shots off the dribble with no passing game. Overall in W he scored 159 points, vs 193 in L, which confirms the difference that in loses he usually takes more bad shots (and still puts them in).
Out of our big 3 (Kuz, Brad and KP), Brad is the only one of them that when he's taking more shots - we lose games.

The point of what i'm saying is that maybe when he forces himself a little bit more on the game, and even with him finishing a big night while being very efficient - maybe that's causing us somehow losing more games, and more importantly - play in-efficient and non-beautiful basketball, with less ball movement, less passing. Especially in the 4th. And as a result of that also other players get less touches and chances to affect the game.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bartowi01/on-off/2023
Check out Barton's on/off. Not very good.

I'm still curious about the number of passes with Beal on the floor vs without, the number of touches other players get as well (with vs without). Especially in the 4th. My gamble will be that everything's lower with him playing.


Anyway Nate33 & doclinkin, thanks for the data!

I'm not sure you've stumbled upon anything particularly meaningful, other than the obvious - that when our high usage players shoot well, we tend to win; and when they shoot poorly, we lose.

In wins, Beal averages 15.7 FGA's at a .662 TS%
In losses, Beal averages 18.0 FGA's at .599 TS% (which is still a rock solid percentage)

In wins, Kuzma averages 17.9 FGA's at a .578 TS%
In losses, Kuzma averages 15.0 FGA's at a .533 TS%

In wins, Porzingis averages 15.9 FGA's at a TS% .615
In losses, Porzingis averages 14.9 FGA's at a TS% .577

So basically, when Kuzma and Porzingis aren't playing well, Beal is stepping up and taking more shots. And those additional shots are coming at an efficiency better than Kuzma and Porzingis. This is exactly what one would want from the team leader. I don't see a problem.