Tommy Sheppard -- Fearless New Leader!

[dckingsfan]

People might not want to hear this but we need to talk about Deni Avdija. His numbers are shockingly bad. 33% from the field and 22% from 3. Yes, his defense is solid but no one's defense is solid enough for us for an NBA team to overlook this level of offensive ineptitude. I remember reading discussing the Wizards on twitter the other day, and a fan who was trying genuinely trying to defend Avdija claimed that "Avdija plays winning basketball." This just confirmed my opinion that in Wizards land up is down and down is up.

In fact, if you look closer at the numbers and even clearer story appears. Avdija was benched against the Celtics and then removed from the starting lineup. After Beal got injured, he was re-inserted. You see, when Avdija was starting and playing with Beal and Porzingis he was 12/28. But put Avdija in a position where doesn't have offensive powerhouses to make the game easy for him - i.e. where he has to do what Rui does - create from scratch and the bottom falls out of the tub.

Since being benched Avdija is shooting 26.3% from the field and 6.7% from 3. When he plays with Beal or Porzingis teams help off of him and thus inflate his numbers. Now that he's coming off the bench, we are seeing a player who has no discernable way to attack a defense. Since we drafted him, every time I see Avdija make a decisive play and score I am always shocked. Perhaps even more shocking is though is that when Rui was shooting 50/40/90 people on this board was calling for him to be removed from the team. Addition by subtraction they cried. Yet, when Avdija is putting these kinds of numbers, they are silent.

Without a significant and profound change, Avdija is likely headed not just out of the rotation but out ultimately out of the league. Avdija over Haliburton will haunt us for years to come.

It's hard to disagree with this.

About a week ago, I was about to write a post saying that I was sick & tired of waiting on both Rui & Deni, then Rui had a couple of good games, & I decided not to write a post like that.

But, you've pulled back the curtain, & now I think I will.

Whether you like hearing it or not, prime, we've wasted 4 drafts in a row. Rui will turn 25 in @ 12 weeks, & despite what you think he hasn't made significant progress towards establishing himself in the league. His numbers so far this year are worse than last year. & both years are worse than his rookie year -- which wasn't good. So, he's a long long long way from making it as a good NBA player.

Deni has been better than Rui overall, but that's not saying much, & he's playing like crap this season.

There's certainly hope that Kispert develops well, but look at a few of the guys taken below him! In particular, Trey Murphy (whom a lot of folks here wanted). The pick of Davis speaks for itself.

& of course we've totally wasted R2 in all 4 of those drafts.

So, yeah, in 2019 we could have had Clarke & 1 of Thybulle, Grant Williams, or Keldon Johnson. Plus we could have taken a good player in R2.

In 2020 it was Haliburton along with either Tre Jones or KMart Jr. (or maybe both of them).

In 2021, make it Murphy, Herb Jones & Dosunmu. This year, we could have had 2 players instead of Davis -- each of them with more potential than Davis seems to have. Not to mention a solid prospect out of R2.

Clarke, Johnson, Caleb Martin, Haliburton, Tre Jones, KMart Jr., Murphy, Herb Jones, Dosunmu, Eason, & TyTy Washington (or Nembhard) plus 1 or 2 more in this year's R2 is one hell of a lot better than Rui, Deni, Corey & Johnny.

So, yeah, unless these bums completely turn it around... I'm sick of tjhem. They're no help.

Probably where this needs to be... to me there is no question that Tommy isn't very good at the draft.

I don't see that he has the creativity to improve - am I wrong on this?

[payitforward]

It's got to be a much bigger problem than Tommy. But, it's very hard to get a handle on.

There are many facets to the draft: "who is the best player to take at number X?" is, in one way, the least important issue -- though of course whatever else you do leads you back to it in the end.

But Tommy can't be responsible for the actual ranking of prospects. He is leading the process, but the detailed assessments aren't coming from his desk, they are coming to his desk.

Ranking draft prospects is hard, & no one gets it right all that often. Not past the first 3 at least, & most of the time even one of those guys turns out to be a bad pick. So, it is almost always smart -- & almost always possible -- to acquire more picks.

Yet, there was reason to believe that in the last draft Tommy was trying hard to trade up. My guess is he was trying to use one or more of Rui, Deni or Gafford, plus our #10 to move up some spots -- maybe to #5-8. You have to assume that they had someone ranked really really high who might be available a few spots up. Otherwise, if they were trying to get higher than that... I doubt there was much of a point in the effort.

That's a high risk strategy that makes zero sense, IMO, for a team like ours -- a bad team.

That's the place where draft strategy starts: with a realistic assessment of your team. Everything starts with that. We are a lousy team. We lack talent. We stink. & we have a quarter billion dollars guaranteed to a very good but not great player. Plus a whole lot more guaranteed salary as well.

I'd be thinking something like "I wonder whether I can get 4-5 really good rookie prospects out of a deep draft like this one?" rather than "can I trade up & get Jabari Smith?" But Tommy isn't drafting like he needs to rebuild his team -- even though that's exactly what he needs to do.

Apparently, no one is saying that to Tommy. Or, if someone is, then Tommy isn't listening. & that's where the heart of the problem lies.

Memphis had the league's 2d best record last year. They came away with 5 rookies.
We stunk. We came away with 1 guy.

[AFM]

seeing "latest post by PayItForward" under the Tommy Sheppard thread, you know you're about to read some ****.

[dckingsfan]

Did anyone have Nembhard on their list?

[FAH1223]

Did anyone have Nembhard on their list?

YUP

Final Draft Rankings - Top 50

Tier 1 - Franchise player

1. F/C Chet Holmgren
Ultra skilled face up big with elite defensive instincts. Plus shooter/slasher at 7-0. Game changing shot blocker defensively. Slight but feels like a can't miss prospect destined to be a star.

Tier 2 - Multiple All-star

2. SG Jaden Ivey
Hyper athletic guard in the Ja/Russ mold. First step is elite, will get in the lane at will. Shooting needs work but he's not a non-shooter either. Decent from 3. Improvement from frosh season was significant.

Tier 3 - Good Starter/ may make an all-star game or two

3. SF Bennedict Mathurin
An explosive wing with advanced shooting skill. Handle rapidly improved towards 2nd half of soph season unlocking his playmaking skill.

Spoiler:

4. PF Keegan Murray
Incredibly efficient/productive but did it against college Cs. Still the skill level & motor is impressive. Solid from range who thrives on beating slower bigs off the bounce.

5. PF Paolo Banchero
Has the physical attributes of a #1 pick and the skill to match but motor runs hot & cold. Quick feet and advanced handle with his size/build make him a potential 3-level scorer.

6. PF Jabari Smith
6-10 big with advanced shooting skill which makes him incredibly valuable offensively but its his only plus trait. Not a slasher, playmaker or defender. Plays stiff.

7. G/F Dyson Daniels
I'm projecting him more as secondary ballhandler than a PG. Incredibly long & switchable with elite defensive instincts. Shot is a WIP but it looked good in workouts. Excellent passer who will need more aggression to be a lead guard.

8. SF Ousmane Dieng
Long wing with guard like skill. Two way potential with solid defensive instincts. Began to show a bag on the ball towards the end of the NBL season including an assortment of step back 3s.

Tier 4 - Good role player / capable starter

9. G/F Jalen Williams
One of the most versatile offensive players in the draft. Ultra skilled & 6-6 with a PF-like standing reach. Not explosive but smooth. Shot the hell out of the ball as well. Can play on or off the ball. Excellent in the P&R and an outstanding passer. Defensively is were the questions come in. I don't think he can defend 1s.

10. C Mark Williams
Freakishly length combined with solid frame & athleticism make for an incredibly efficient rim runner. Should be fine in drop coverage on the P&R. Should be a solid starting NBA C but there's no game beyond 5 feet offensively and he'll likely never be a threat from 3.

11. PF Jeremy Sochan
Projects a plus defender that's switchable 3-5. Gets a lot of comparisons to Draymond due to enthusiasm, motor & passing. Has alot of Deni Avdija in his game but more instinctive defensively & vocal.

12. PF Tari Eason
Athletic slasher who lives to go right. Even when starting off left, he'll finish right. Shot put jumper needs a lot work. Selling point is the length, the non-stop motor & productivity.

13. SG Johnny Davis
Two way guard with mid range shot creation. 3 pt range is suspect. High effort, energy & character guy. No quit in him but not an elite athlete. Feels like the 2nd coming of John Starks.

14. SF A.J. Griffin
Elite HS prospect with injury history. Athletic pop & aggression was missing at Duke but was still an elite level shooter and capable off the bounce attacking closeouts. Was MIA on defense.

15. C Jalen Duren
Rim runner with elite physical tools. Not quite ready for prime time but projects as a drop coverage C with some flexibility to switch onto smaller Gs. Flashes some offensive skill outside of 5 feet unlike Mark Williams or Walker Kessler but it still needs to be fleshed out.

16. PG TyTy Washington
Pure P&R PG who unfortunately did not get the chance to do so at UK and he really needs it to be effective. Operated more as a secondary ballhandler but his decision making in the P&R is where he'll shine and rack up assists. Not great athlete but tries defensively.

17. G/F Dalen Terry
Excellent size/length for G with PG skill. Versatile defensively and will guard multiple positions. Infectious personality will make him a locker room favorite. Improving shooter but to really be a PG he'll need to be more aggressive looking for his scoring opportunities. Poor man's Tyrese Haliburton.

18. PG Kennedy Chandler
Undersized dynamic playmaker who shot well from 3 but not the ft line or off the dribble. Defended at a high level in college but Gs will be able to shoot over him in the NBA. May struggle to finish in the paint.

19. SF Gabriele Procida
Athletic wing with a good looking shot. Strong finisher with pop, ok off the bounce but can improve. Needs more discipline ogn the defensive end but capable.

20. C Walker Kessler
Elite shot blocker with impeccable timing. Excellent rebounder. Strictly a drop coverage big. Not incredibly mobile and can get played off the floor when teams go small. Likely not a full time C but may be very impactful during the regular season.

21. SF Kendall Brown
High flying athletic forward and improving 3 point shooter. Shot creation is limited. Best case is a 3&D guy & high level finisher.

22. SF Nikola Jovic
A skilled connector with good mobility at 6-10 who can shoot it pretty well. Projects as light rebounding 4. Not terrible defensively but hard to tell as he was hidden by zones in the Adriatic league but instincts appeared solid. The Bjelica comparisons make sense.

Tier 5 - Rotation level guys

23. Christian Koloko
A solid rim runner with switchability in P&Rs. Shooting potential displayed in ft% and flashed range out to 3. Hints of playmaking skill make him an option at the top of the key offensively. Should be a good value despite the crowded C market.

24. PF Jake LaRavia
A playmaking 4 with good range. Skilled with range from 3 should be easy fit on most rosters. Light on rebounding but works hard defensively.

25. PF E.J. Liddell
Undersized but built like a tank. A versatile F with improving outside shot. Projects as a solid role playing 4 who can may be able to defend 3s. Post game will be negated at NBA level due to length.

26. SG Ochai Agbaji
Good shooter & solid athlete who's capable attacking closeouts. That's the good. Everything else is below average. No rebounding. No playmaking. Defense is just ok despite physical ability.

27. SG Malaki Branham
Stokes comparisons of Caris Levert. Herky, jerky scorer who thrives in the mid-range. Doesn't appear comfortable out to NBA 3. Non-defender who will likely be a negative on that end.

28. G/F Shaedon Sharpe
Wow type leaping ability. Functional ups in the half court. 3 inches taller and I wouldn't hesitate to draft him and put him in the dunkers spot. Good looking shooter to boot. That said he's a guard with poor lateral quickness. He's got an assortment of stepbacks and jab steps but its worrisome he didn't create space against HS'ers. Tough shot maker but that generally doesn't translate. A complete non-defender and appears lost on that end.

29. F/C Jaylin Williams
19 yr old that needs to expand his range to find a clean role alongside a rim protector as its not a strength of his. Incredible feel & touch around the rim. Aggressive & tough on the boards.

30. PG Andrew Nembhard
Has grown into an NBA prospect by improving his long range shooting and becoming a threat from deep. His ability to manage the game with pace and whip live dribble passes has never been in question. No mid-range game and struggles to finish at the rim.

31. SG Keon Ellis
The slender wing is a high energy defender/rebounder in the Herb Jones mold. A solid shooter from 3, he projects as a solid role playing 3&D guard.

32. SF Christian Braun
Solid playmaker and streaky shooter from deep. Versatile defender who can guard 2-4. Doesn't have one go to skill just can do a little of everything including block shots.

33. SF MarJon Beauchamp
The 6-6 wing displayed a good motor in the g-league but the shot is work in progress and not reliable as of yet. Good length & quick feet should allow him to be a plus defender. Used to play PG so capable slasher with good passing instincts.

34. PF David Roddy
Big framed forward loaded with excellent skill. Extremely productive & efficient as his 260 lbs made him a mismatch nightmare in the Mountain West. Quick in small spaces but there are legitimate questions about his functional quickness in space and whether he can guard anyone. '

35. SF Jordan Hall
Ultra skilled wing and shot creator with a solid stroke who was basically a PG for St. Joe's. Must get stronger to become a better finisher. Not much of a defender at this stage.

36. C Ismael Kamagate
Athletic rim & runner who flashes unrefined ball skills & passing instincts. Reason why he's rated so low is he is often lost defensively despite solid shot blocking instincts.

37. G/F Trevor Keels
Probably should be higher but his motor fluctuated throughout the year. Not the most athletic so he needs to rely on energy/effort to excel. Streaky shooter with some combo skill. Made some highlight NBA worthy plays just didn't always bring it.

Tier 6 - Deep bench/projects

38. Khalifa Diop
A non-factor offensively, Diop shows unique switchability as a 7-0 250 big who can guard out to the 3. High energy backup.

39. PG Jean Montero
Small quick PG with handle, creativity & shot making ability off the bounce. More of a scorer than a true PG. Struggles to finish in the paint & defense is a major questionmark.

40. SG Ryan Rollins
Skilled, jack-of-all trades guard who can score at all 3 levels. His defensive intensity & floor game need work.

41. Vince Williams Jr
His 3&D skillset belies a future role in the league as a spot shooter and defensive irritant.

42. SF Wendell Moore Jr
Projectable 3&D wing with a knack for disappearing at times. Questionable decision maker with the ball but can hit 3s, attack closeouts and defend wings at a solid level

43. PG Collin Gillespie
Excellent 3 point shooter with marginal PG skill. Will probably work better next to a playmaking 2. Sound passer but not special or dynamic with the ball. Displays defensive toughness.

44. SF Jabari Walker
Sweet shooting forward with little else to offer. Michael Porter Jr lite. Good size, length & twitch & but not impactful with it.

45. SG Jaden Hardy
ISO heavy guard with bad shot tendencies. One of better shot creators in the draft but shot making, decision making & effort level leave a lot to be desired.

46. SG Blake Wesley '
A relentless downhill attacker who struggles to process the game outside of scoring. And he's also an inefficient scorer with questionable range. Thrives in the mid-range and has burst off the bounce.

47. SF Julian Champagnie
Streaky 3&D player, with some shot creation in the mid-range but with limited passing/court vision. Solid, not great athlete. '

48. SG Bryce McGowens
Rail thin guard often punished by bigger players on both sides of the ball. Can't guard anyone. Showcases a variety of skills but tends to flash it against weaker comp. Must shoot better than 25% from 3.

49. SG Tevin Brown
Skilled playmaker and very good shooter. Needs to get stronger and is poor defender. FT shooting % is a concern.

50. PG Alondes Williams
Skilled big bodied guard with a tight handle and good passing instincts. To TO prone and not a good shooter. Shooting will be swing skill. Not a good defender either

Zards -- question for you:

Suppose we are sitting at 10, & that our pick is going to be Johnny Davis. But, we have the opportunity instead to trade our #10 to SA for their #s 20, 25 & 38.

Let's further assume that:

at 20 we could get one of TyTy Washington, Tari Eason, or EJ Liddell
at 25 we could get 1 of Kennedy Chandler, Andrew Nembhard or Christian Koloko
at 38 we could get 1 of Trevor Keels, Keon Ellis, Trevion Williams... or whoever else seems reasonably likely to be there: it's a long list (Jabari Walker...).

Would you keep the #10 & take Johnny Davis? Or would you make the trade?

If the latter, who would you grab at those 3 spots? In fact, hmmm, even if you wouldn't make the trade -- who would you pick if we did?

Obviously, you don't have to restrict yourself to the guys I list....

(We still have that #54, but I'm leaving it out for the moment.)

I'd definitely make that trade with SA if it were available. I'd ideally get TyTy or Chandler at PG. Eason...but I think he'll be gone before 20 and Keon Ellis who has a good chance at being available at 38.

I also like Liddell, Nembhard an Keels. So pretty much any three of the players you listed would be good pickups.

Not ruling it out, but I have my doubts that a trade like that is likely to happen.

Great choices -- but, alas, I think you are quite right that such a trade won't happen.

That said, based on the players we both like... I might just do 10 for 20 & 25: come away with TyTy or Chandler plus Liddell or Koloko. Then try to make some other kind of deal that allowed us to pick up Keon Ellis (though there's an outside chance he'll be there at 54).

[gambitx777]

Moved here

Is it safe to say Sheppard has missed on every single draft pick he’s made, except for maybe Kispert who looks seriously one dimensional at this point?

How many draft picks does he get to whiff on before he gets the boot?

Johnny Davis is showing something pretty good in the G league. Plenty of productive players spent time in the G league. I can't call him a busy yet. Deni is a really good defender to say he missed on him is very premature, he's still very very young. Kispert has shown an ability to be a very good 3 & D guy. He defends well and has sniper ability. He has time to develop so I wouldn't call him 1 dimensional. Rui before his injury was one of our best bench players. Rui has been the biggest knock so far in my opinion, I still think he has potential but I'll give you this he hasn't been what we hopped. Sure sure he's made a lot of missteps in the draft hasn't done great but no where near the incompetent shananagans that EG pulled trading picks and taking absolute boat anchors. Like none of those 4 guys are worse that pecherov, singleton, the French dude, blatche, and all of the god awful trades.

Tommy has been very good in trades and has done well in other areas and players like him. He's not getting fired anytime soon. He's been an upgrade over EG and even though he needs to fire and rehire the entire scouting department, he's not in danger of loosing his job.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[TGW]

Moved here

Is it safe to say Sheppard has missed on every single draft pick he’s made, except for maybe Kispert who looks seriously one dimensional at this point?

How many draft picks does he get to whiff on before he gets the boot?

Johnny Davis is showing something pretty good in the G league. Plenty of productive players spent time in the G league. I can't call him a busy yet. Deni is a really good defender to say he missed on him is very premature, he's still very very young. Kispert has shown an ability to be a very good 3 & D guy. He defends well and has sniper ability. He has time to develop so I wouldn't call him 1 dimensional. Rui before his injury was one of our best bench players. Rui has been the biggest knock so far in my opinion, I still think he has potential but I'll give you this he hasn't been what we hopped. Sure sure he's made a lot of missteps in the draft hasn't done great but no where near the incompetent shananagans that EG pulled trading picks and taking absolute boat anchors. Like none of those 4 guys are worse that pecherov, singleton, the French dude, blatche, and all of the god awful trades.

Tommy has been very good in trades and has done well in other areas and players like him. He's not getting fired anytime soon. He's been an upgrade over EG and even though he needs to fire and rehire the entire scouting department, he's not in danger of loosing his job.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

Bro I appreciate your overly rosy view of this franchise and front office, but at some point the excuses need to stop. If Sheppard has been very good in trades, we’d see it on the court. We’d see results. The best this team has done under Sheppard was with a one year rental of Westbrook (and that trade stunk IMO, so I don’t agree with the “very good in trades” narrative). Overall, this is a bad product and I do think Sheppard is on the hot seat.
I think we’re going to see desperation at the trade deadline, and an ultimate fail.

This might be the last season with Sheppard running things. He doesn’t know what he’s doing.

[AFM]

Is Tommy actually a genius? He knew 4 years ago Ted would never tank for Wembanyana so he purposefully whiffed on all these picks in a row to ensure us a top pick in 2023? Jeopardizing his career and reputation to save this god forsaken franchise??
He’ll go down in history as an awful GM when in reality he‘s a goddamned hero. I WONT FORGET YOU TOMMY!!

[9 and 20]

Moved here

Is it safe to say Sheppard has missed on every single draft pick he’s made, except for maybe Kispert who looks seriously one dimensional at this point?

How many draft picks does he get to whiff on before he gets the boot?

Johnny Davis is showing something pretty good in the G league. Plenty of productive players spent time in the G league. I can't call him a busy yet. Deni is a really good defender to say he missed on him is very premature, he's still very very young. Kispert has shown an ability to be a very good 3 & D guy. He defends well and has sniper ability. He has time to develop so I wouldn't call him 1 dimensional. Rui before his injury was one of our best bench players. Rui has been the biggest knock so far in my opinion, I still think he has potential but I'll give you this he hasn't been what we hopped. Sure sure he's made a lot of missteps in the draft hasn't done great but no where near the incompetent shananagans that EG pulled trading picks and taking absolute boat anchors. Like none of those 4 guys are worse that pecherov, singleton, the French dude, blatche, and all of the god awful trades.

Tommy has been very good in trades and has done well in other areas and players like him. He's not getting fired anytime soon. He's been an upgrade over EG and even though he needs to fire and rehire the entire scouting department, he's not in danger of loosing his job.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

Bro I appreciate your overly rosy view of this franchise and front office, but at some point the excuses need to stop. If Sheppard has been very good in trades, we’d see it on the court. We’d see results. The best this team has done under Sheppard was with a one year rental of Westbrook (and that trade stunk IMO, so I don’t agree with the “very good in trades” narrative). Overall, this is a bad product and I do think Sheppard is on the hot seat.
I think we’re going to see desperation at the trade deadline, and an ultimate fail.

This might be the last season with Sheppard running things. He doesn’t know what he’s doing.

We gave $250 million to a guy worth a fraction of that. Then, we drafted a backup shooting guard with the number 10 pick in the draft. And it turns out that #10 pick is turrible. Is there a chance in the world Davis could be traded for a lottery pick now? Or top 20? Top 25?

How about - could we get Brogdon in a trade for Davis (the trade that was supposedly on the table this summer). I doubt it.

Tommy has been overall pretty bad. All his draft picks stink for one reason or another. His trades have been more good than bad but the end result is the same - we are a garbage team made up of overpaid vets with a bare cupboard. Sounds like a Grundle special.